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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

WHO: "Virus is relatively stable."

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    Posted: February 10 2006 at 10:55am
Birds may spread single sub-strain of H5N1 virus

10 Feb 2006 17:40:41 GMT
Source: Reuters


GENEVA, Feb 10 (Reuters) - A senior scientist at the World Health
Organisation (WHO) said on Friday that a limited number of migratory
birds appear to be spreading a single sub-strain of the H5N1 virus, a
potentially positive discovery.

In theory, this could lower opportunities for the lethal H5N1 virus to
mutate into an easily transmissible form which could spark a human
influenza pandemic, according to Michael Perdue, an epidemiologist in
WHO's global influenza programme.

Scientists are increasingly convinced that some migratory waterfowl carry
the lethal virus in its highly pathogenic form, introducing it to poultry
flocks along their routes.

Four family groups of the H5N1 virus have been identified, with multiple
substrains within each, but it appeared that only one was "moving
westward," Perdue said.

"We are looking at what I think is probably limited (migratory bird)
species that are infected with what appears to be a single sub-strain of
the Asian viruses," he told reporters.

"That is better news than thinking all the birds are spreading the virus all
over the world -- that's not happening. In that sense, it's not as grim
perhaps as it looks," he said.

Perdue later told Reuters: "It could reduce the mutation level...You are
less likely to have widespread mutation than if you had 20 strains hop-
skotching across Asia."

"It also appears that this virus is relatively stable."

The WHO has said that the viruses from Turkey's first two fatal human
cases were virtually identical to viruses from Quinhai Lake nature reserve
in central China, where there was an unprecedented die-off of 6,000
migratory birds in April 2005.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L10570500.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RicheeRich Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2006 at 10:59am
Okay, I'm sending all my stuff back for a refund !!
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Groups urge Nigeria to step up bird flu fight


10 Feb 2006 16:41:51 GMT
Source: Reuters

PARIS, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Nigeria must step up measures to control bird
flu, clamp down on poultry trade and use culling, vaccination and
movement controls where outbreaks occur, world animal health bodies
said on Friday.

"Control measures need to be intensified," the World Organisation for
Animal Health (OIE) and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
said.

They said the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, which has been found in
northern Nigeria, was often spread through the movement of infected
birds.

"Therefore the movement of poultry should be stopped immediately in
order to contain the disease. People should not import or trade livestock
or livestock products, including poultry," the groups said in a statement.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L10674236.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RicheeRich Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2006 at 11:02am
The Federal Aviation Administration is probably going to have to ground all bird traffic, too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2006 at 11:14am

Originally posted by Rick Rick wrote:

"Control measures need to be intensified..  the movement of poultry should be stopped immediately in order to contain the disease. People should not import or trade livestock or livestock products, including poultry."
Rick, these measures have been taken..  right?

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KANO, 10 Feb 2006 (IRIN) “We are sad that until

this hour nobody from the ministry of agriculture

has shown up,” said Awalu Haruna, Secretary of the

Kano State branch of the Poultry Association of Nigeria.

“We are only doing what we can to stop the spread of

this disease, believe me nobody has told

us that it is bird flu.”


http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=51658&SelectRegi on=West_Africa&SelectCountry=NIGERIA
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Friday 10/06

Bird Flu: Red Alert In Lagos, Kaduna Hospitals

• Sick Chickens On Sale In Kano • Kenya Bans Poultry Imports From
Nigeria

Kaduna State Governor, Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi, tried to calm nerves
on Thursday over the outbreak of bird flu that has claimed over 200,000
chickens and poses a threat to humans.

He set up a team to curb the spread of the possible epidemic and put all
hospitals in the state on red alert to treat suspected cases of the lethal
H5N1 virus, while Sambawa Farms has been quarantined.
Hospitals in Lagos have also been put on red alert.

Makarfi disclosed after a meeting with stakeholders and donor agencies
that the affected chickens were bought from five different places in Kano.
He said he has ordered health officials to conduct tests in all major
poultry farms to ascertain the level of the spread of the disease.
However, he added, "it is not as alarming as people believe.


http://www.independentng.com/news/nnfeb100601.htm
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Ah what conflicting stories from the WHO.  Amazed that this was on Yahoo this morning, but it was gone from the news homesite in a minute!  I'll highlight points of interest in RED

Avian flu was blamed for another death in Indonesia on Friday and spread to a new country after Azerbaijan said the lethal H5N1 strain had been found in wild birds on the Caspian Sea 

The virus was discovered in birds in the west African country of Nigeria earlier this week, extending what a senior

United Nations official called a devastating spread from southern Asia over the past seven months.

Nigerian authorities say they are acting to curb Africa's first outbreak but there was little evidence of any concrete measures in the worst affected areas in the north of the country on Friday.

Indonesia said a woman being treated for bird flu at a specialist Jakarta hospital had died and another patient was in critical condition.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has already confirmed 16 deaths from the disease in Indonesia, part of a toll of at least 88 deaths since the virus re-emerged in late 2003.

Human victims contract the flu from close contact with infected birds. There are fears the virus could mutate to a form where it can spread from human to human, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die.

David Nabarro, who heads the U.N. drive to contain the virus, said there was no evidence it had mutated to that point, but added "it's not far away."

"I don't want to scare anyone but the truth is this virus is undergoing changes slowly," Nabarro told a gathering of advocacy and humanitarian groups at U.N. headquarters. "This warning that nature is giving us has to be heeded."

As recently as last June, the disease was confined largely to birds in southern Asia, Nabarro said.

But in the seven months between June and last month, "something fairly devastating happened," he said, noting the spread of the disease into Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, the Middle East and now sub-Saharan Africa.

AZERBAIJAN HIT

His point was underlined when Azerbaijan, a state that lies on a crossroads between Asia and Europe, reported its first outbreak of H5N1.

Azerbaijan said the virus had been found in wild birds floating dead off its coast.

The birds were found in the Caspian Sea near the Absheron peninsula, which includes the capital Baku, and off the southern Massaly region, near the border with Iran, Emin Shakhbazov, deputy head of the country's veterinary service, told reporters.

Four children died in neighboring Turkey last month from an outbreak of the virus that was concentrated in the east of the country. A teenager in war-ravaged Iraq is another confirmed fatality.

Greece tightened safety measures at poultry farms in the north of the country after three swans tested positive for H5 bird flu. Further tests are being carried out at a laboratory in Britain to establish if this is the first case of H5N1 in wild birds in a member of the European Union.

NIGERIA CAMPAIGN

The WHO has warned that Africa, which is the world's poorest continent and already faces a series of health crises, is at risk of widespread outbreaks in birds.

The WHO is rolling out a public education campaign to warn of the dangers of bird flu, using a planned polio vaccination program at the weekend as an opportunity.

"The critical thing at this point in the avian flu epidemic is to prevent human exposure to the virus, to prevent human cases, if they've not already occurred," said Bruce Aylward, coordinator of WHO's polio initiative.

Farmers and workers in northern Nigeria appeared bewildered by questions about bird flu.

"I have not seen this kind of infection before. I have no idea what it is," said one who gave his name only as Shehu.

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Originally posted by Rick Rick wrote:

KANO, 10 Feb 2006 (IRIN) “We are sad that until this hour nobody from the ministry of agriculture has shown up,” said Awalu Haruna, Secretary of the Kano State branch of the Poultry Association of Nigeria. “We are only doing what we can to stop the spread of this disease, believe me nobody has told us that it is bird flu.”
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=51658&Select Regi on=West_Africa&SelectCountry=NIGERIA
Rick, very scary.

I love the fact that your news posts are always followed with a news link.  I don't read or give credence to those without links.

I look forward to your news posts everyday.  It's my way of keeping abreast of the situation.  Anyway, I really appreaciate you.  Thanks.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tired Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2006 at 3:02pm
WHO  needs to get their story straght! Within the same day (today) I have read quotes from WHO officials saying that the virus is slowly changing into a form that could be easier to transfer from human to human. THEN I read that they are saying "it may not be as grim as we thought," and "the virus is stable."

How the heck are we supposed to get ACCURATE info when there quotes and comments are all over the place.

Either the virus is stable, or it's slowly mutating.....which is it?

Better to be safe than sorry....
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