Math Lesson

Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Printable Version Translate Topic

   Well-interesting numbers below according to WHO as of Feb. 13, 2006
*2006 numbers averaged for 6 weeks
*WHO only reports labatory-confirmed cases
 Year       Cases &am p;nb sp;  Average/Month      Average/Wee k      Deaths       %
2003- 3 cases,  0.25/month, .057/week, 3 deaths or 100% of cases
2004- 46 cases, 3.83/month, .884/week, 32 deaths or 79% of cases
 2005- 95 cases, 7.91/month, 1.83/week,&n bsp;41 deaths or  43% of cases
2006- 25 cases, 16.6/month,  4.16/week, 15 deaths or 60% of cases
Total- 169 cases, 4.51/month, 1.04/week, 91 deaths or 54% of cases
So if we continue on into 2006 at the current rate here's what it will end up looking like by year's end. Remember this is at the current rate and does not assume that the numbers will increase as the virus increases.
55 cases for 2006 with 30 deaths for 2006.

Edited by Ella Fitzgerald

Author	Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Printable Version Translate Topic
Ella Fitzgerald Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 586	Post Options Post Reply Quote Ella Fitzgerald Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Math Lesson Posted: February 13 2006 at 1:17pm
	Well-interesting numbers below according to WHO as of Feb. 13, 2006 2006 numbers averaged for 6 weeks WHO only reports labatory-confirmed cases Year Cases &am p;nb sp; Average/Month Average/Wee k Deaths % 2003- 3 cases, 0.25/month, .057/week, 3 deaths or 100% of cases 2004- 46 cases, 3.83/month, .884/week, 32 deaths or 79% of cases 2005- 95 cases, 7.91/month, 1.83/week,&n bsp;41 deaths or 43% of cases 2006- 25 cases, 16.6/month, 4.16/week, 15 deaths or 60% of cases Total- 169 cases, 4.51/month, 1.04/week, 91 deaths or 54% of cases So if we continue on into 2006 at the current rate here's what it will end up looking like by year's end. Remember this is at the current rate and does not assume that the numbers will increase as the virus increases. 55 cases for 2006 with 30 deaths for 2006. Edited by Ella Fitzgerald

Ella Fitzgerald Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 586	Post Options Post Reply Quote Ella Fitzgerald Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 13 2006 at 1:32pm
	It sure would be nice for someone to figure what the numbers would be if the virus continued to grow at the same rate it has over the past 3 years. Statistics anyone?

FlulessinDC Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Status: Offline Points: 40	Post Options Post Reply Quote FlulessinDC Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 13 2006 at 3:31pm
	Ella, I don't make any claims as a mathematician, let alone as a statistician, but the numbers you list indicate a constant, or straight-line, growth. (A little over forty cases added each year.) That would point to about 135 cases this year. Unfortunately, I don't think that three previous points (03, 04, & 05) are enough to give high confidence that the trend will remain the same throughout this year. I get the feeling, as a matter of fact, the train is picking up speed, after a slow start. Sticking with that "train of thought", and if the three current points are the front end of an exponential growth curve (as one expects in an epidemic), I would see about 300 cases this year, with an explosion in growth (the start of "real" exponential growth) by about March of '07. Of course, this is really just guesswork, since we can't even be sure that the numbers we are getting from the WHO are anywhere close to the factual incidences. That being said, when we start to se the curve changing away from the straight line, we can make a better guess...
	No plan of battle ever survives contact with the enemy. Heinz Guderian Plans are nothing; planning is everything. Dwight D. Eisenhower

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 13 2006 at 6:46pm
	FlulessinDC, I agree. With the recent burst of H5N1 in Eastern Europe the future cases are near impossible to predict. Plus, a lot of birds die without being noticed. Can the virologists even guess what this complex virus will do and when? To complicate matters further, a pig with pig flu can get avian flu and the 2 viruses have a better chance of mutating to H2H. I'm advising newbies in my area to keep cool, cope, prep and enjoy their life. After all, maybe H5 will mutate past H2H and become harmless?!?

Corn Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219	Post Options Post Reply Quote Corn Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 13 2006 at 7:25pm
	I think that what they are saying right now in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thiland, Mongolia, Turkey, Ukraine, Romania, Greece, Italy, Arbejan, Nigeria, Kenya and so on.....HARMLESS. Three continents and counting. Asia, Mid East, West and Lower Russia, Europe and Africa. Endemic and Harmless. Lets sell our preps and go to the Olympics. What's left? North America. Edited by Corn
	Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.

Fiddlerdave Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 259	Post Options Post Reply Quote Fiddlerdave Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 14 2006 at 2:17am
	What makes anyone think we are seeing even a representative sampling of cases? Reporting brings such grave negative consequences to many of he poor who dpend on some kind of fowl for an ongoing livelyhood (so even an immediate payment for culled birds is only a temporary help with no solution for what to eat or sell afterward). I think this is even much much more of a problem in Africa. Given their level of illness, lack of services or monitoring, and remote areas, you could have 1,000's of human cases in some areas and it would not be noticed by any reporting body.
	Dave "Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"!