Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
WHO: Raising Pandemic Alert Level |
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Midas
Adviser Group Joined: September 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 295 |
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Posted: April 24 2009 at 10:48am |
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WHO Worries Mexico Flu Deaths of 16 'Healthy' People Could Be Start of Pandemic
Mexico closed its schools across its capital Friday after at least 16 otherwise healthy people died and more than 900 others fell ill from what could be a new strain of swine flu. The World Health Organization worried that it could mark the start of a flu pandemic.
Scientists in the U.S. and Mexico were trying to determine if the deaths were due to the same new strain of swine flu that sickened seven people in Texas and California. The World Health Organization counted at least 57 deaths in Mexico, although it wasn't yet clear if this larger number was due to swine flu. "We are very, very concerned," WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham said. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human." If international spread is confirmed, that meets WHO's criteria for raising the pandemic alert level, he added. WHO also raised its internal alert system Friday, enabling the agency to divert more money and personnel to dealing with the outbreak. "It's all hands on deck at the moment." Abraham said. Mexico's Health Secretary, Jose Cordova, said only 16 of the deaths have been confirmed to have been caused by the new strain, through testing at government laboratories. Samples from 44 other people who died were still being tested. The health department put the total number of people sickened at around 943 nationwide. Cordova said samples also were sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to determine whether it's the same virus infecting seven people in Texas and California. As of now, tests show the flu is a "new, different strain ... that originally came from pigs," he said. "We certainly have 60 deaths that we can't be sure are from the same virus, but it is probable," Cordova told MVS radio in Mexico City. Cordova described a chilling new strain that had killed only people among the normally less-vulnerable young and mid-adult age range. One possibility is that the most vulnerable segments of the population -- infants and the aged -- had been vaccinated against other strains, and that those vaccines may be providing some protection. But Dr. Anne Schuchat of the CDC said "at this point, we do not have any confirmations of swine influenza in Mexico" of the kind that sickened seven California and Texas residents. All seven U.S. victims recovered from a strain of the flu that combines pig, bird and human viruses in a way that researchers have not seen before. The swine flu's symptoms are like those of the regular flu, mostly involving fever, cough and sore throat, though some of the seven also experienced vomiting and diarrhea. Closing the schools across the metropolis of 20 million kept 6.1 million students home from day care centers through high schools, and thousands more were affected as colleges and universities closed down. Parents scrambled to juggle work and family concerns due to what local media said was the first citywide schools closure since Mexico City's devastating 1985 earthquake. Lillian Molina and other teachers at the Montessori's World preschool scrubbed down their empty classrooms with Clorox, soap and Lysol on Friday between fielding calls from worried parents. While the school has had no known cases among its students, Molina supported the government's decision to shutter classes, especially in preschools. "It's great they are taking precautions," she said. "I think it's a really good idea." Authorities advised capital residents not to go to work if they felt ill, and to wear surgical masks if they had to move through crowds. A wider shutdown -- perhaps including shutting down government offices -- was being considered. It is very likely that classes will be suspended for several days," Cordova said. "We will have to evaluate, and let's hope this doesn't happen, the need to restrict activity at workplaces." Still, U.S. health officials said it's not yet a reason for alarm in the United States. The five in California and two in Texas have all recovered, and testing indicates some common antiviral medications seem to work against the virus. Schuchat of the CDC said officials believe the new strain can spread human-to-human, which is unusual for a swine flu virus. The CDC is checking people who have been in contact with the seven confirmed U.S. cases, who all became ill between late March and mid-April. The U.S. cases are a growing medical mystery because it's unclear how they caught the virus. The CDC said none of the seven people were in contact with pigs, which is how people usually catch swine flu. And only a few were in contact with each other. CDC officials described the virus as having a unique combination of gene segments not seen in people or pigs before. The bug contains human virus, avian virus from North America and pig viruses from North America, Europe and Asia. Health officials have seen mixes of bird, pig and human virus before, but never such an intercontinental combination with more than one pig virus in the mix. Scientists keep a close eye on flu viruses that emerge from pigs. The animals are considered particularly susceptible to both avian and human viruses and a likely place where the kind of genetic reassortment can take place that might lead to a new form of pandemic flu, said Dr. John Treanor, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Rochester Medical Center. The virus may be something completely new, or it may have been around for a while but was only detected now because of improved lab testing and disease surveillance, CDC officials said. The virus was first detected in two children in southern California -- a 10-year-old boy in San Diego County and a 9-year-old girl in neighboring Imperial County. It's not known if anyone is getting sick from the virus right now, CDC officials said. It's also not known if the seasonal flu vaccine that Americans got last fall and early this year protects against this type of virus. People should wash their hands and take other customary precautions, CDC officials said. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517790,00.html |
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Midas
Adviser Group Joined: September 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 295 |
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HELEN BRANSWELL
Canadian Press April 24, 2009 at 12:25 PM EDT TORONTO -- Mexican authorities today confirmed they have found human cases of the same swine flu virus that has caused illness in the southwestern United States, a development that raises questions about whether the world is watching the start of a flu pandemic. The World Health Organization expressed serious concern, saying it is considering whether it needs to raise the global pandemic alert level and whether to launch an effort to try to contain the spread of a virus with possible pandemic potential. “We can't say for sure that either a phase change or a rapid containment operation will happen. But both have been considered and are being considered," spokesman Gregory Hartl said from Geneva. "I still don't think we have enough information to be able to say that this is a pandemic or not. Because there are questions over transmissibility, let's say, of the virus. And we need to know more about how easily transmitted the virus is." Heath officials concerned about mystery outbreak Mexican doctors have confirmed 137 cases of an unidentified respiratory illness in south and central Mexico, and Canadian health officials are concerned that it could spread Mr. Hartl said there have been no reports of infections in any other countries to date. Mexican authorities confirmed that samples tested both at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control tested positive for swine flu viruses. The unusual influenza A H1N1 viruses were first reported earlier this week, when the CDC announced it had found two human cases of infection with this never-before-seen virus. Though human H1N1 viruses have been circulating for decades, it is not clear how much protection previous infection with them would confer against a virus made up predominantly of swine flu genes. The virus also has some bird genes and one human gene. U.S. authorities have confirmed seven cases of swine flu infection in people in Southern California and Texas over the past few days. The seven range in age from nine to 54 years of age. All have recovered from the infection; one needed hospitalization. But the news coming out of Mexico paints a different story, with reports of a fairly high attack rate and more than 20 deaths. Reports suggest the majority of the cases are occurring in young, previously healthy adults in their mid 20s to mid 40s. There are said to have been over 800 cases so far, but it remains unclear if all of those people are sick with this virus or if other flu or respiratory viruses are also circulating and muddling the picture. Mr. Hartl said the WHO is sending staff to Mexico to help authorities there get a better handle on the scope of the problem. "We're extremely concerned because we're looking at five different influenza events which may or may not be connected," he said, referring to California, Texas and three possibly linked outbreaks in Mexico. "But they are unusual events, either because of the time of the year that they happened and or because of the people that have been affected. This is a great concern to us and we have activated our strategic health operation centre which is a 24-hour around-the-clock command and control centre." Canada and the United States have also launched their emergency control centres, signalling this is an event they want to track around the clock. The world is currently at level 3 of the WHO's six-rung pandemic alert ladder, because of ongoing sporadic cases of human infection with the H5N1 avian flu virus. Phase 3 means there are occasional human cases with a novel flu virus. WHO would need the advice of an expert panel to move up to Phase 4 or beyond. Phase 6 is a pandemic. Mr. Hartl's comments suggest that panel has been put on alert that they may be drawn together at any time. |
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Smaug
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Time to load up on cheap beer and wine. This is really bad
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Hotair
Valued Member Joined: March 17 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 667 |
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This is what we feared most--a combination of genes.The WHO better work fast-whatever plan they decide!My kids won't go to school starting MOnday if there is a hint of it in our area.
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Annie
Valued Member Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
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No more hugs in church, no more shaking hands, this is too close.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090424/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_fluMexico shuts schools, museums to stop flu outbreakAP People wear surgical masks as a precaution against infection at a bus stop in Mexico City, Friday, AprilBy MARK STEVENSON, Associated Press Writer Mark Stevenson, Associated Press Writer 14 mins ago
MEXICO CITY: Mexico shut down schools, museums, libraries and state-run theaters across it overcrowded capital Friday in hopes of containing a swine flu outbreak that authorities say killed at least 20 people and perhaps dozens more. World health authorities worried openly that the strange new virus could become a global epidemic. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said tests show some of the Mexico victims died from the same new strain of swine flu that sickened eight people in Texas and California. Mexico put the confirmed toll at 20 dead, but 40 other fatalities were being probed, and at least 943 nationwide were sick from the suspected flu, the health department said. Scientists said the virus combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before. "We are very, very concerned," spokesman Thomas Abraham said .... .... |
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Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
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NeilF
Valued Member Joined: November 08 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 34 |
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I wouldn't worry to much at the moment - "Testing indicates some mainstream antiviral medications seem to work against the new swine virus."
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ZX12R
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I don't think that will help the spreading though. Would it? |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The only thing probably slowing it down at the moment is the termperature, and the time of year. Things should slow down after another few weeks, until next fall when all hell breaks loose. Although, since there are nearly 1000 cases in only 30 days, it seems like it has a good head of steam. The strain seems fairly robust by the explosion of new cases. |
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Midas
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ZX12R
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I don't know...if it's H2H transmission, then hasn't it found a stable temperature environment, and will spread regardless of other factors? |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Hi ZX, you're probably right, and it will probably continue to spread quickly. The wave in the winter time could even get more severe. The fact that it's exploding like it is in these temperatures almost tells us that this new virus is somewhat suped-up a bit. Maybe not like h5n1, but maybe more like the 1918 version. Like I said, this strain seems robust ..
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ZX12R
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 24 2009 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 11 |
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Indeed. This is a very recent development and news explosion. I can't wait to see what tomorrow brings, in terms of news. |
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RICHARD-FL
Valued Member Joined: May 13 2008 Location: N.E. Florida Status: Offline Points: 98 |
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Below I have posted a very good reference dealing with this Swine Flu pandemic. It is a medical view of the problems involved.
We have a major problem with 2 countries involved and continued movement over the borders. This is just the start. http://www.medicinehatnews.com/content/view/93837/66/ |
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"...No man is an island on to himself..." Words to remember
RICHARD-FL |
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earwax
Valued Member Joined: May 18 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 72 |
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Howdy everyone,
This is another fine mess...
I'm looking at these numbers and I'm not sure if I'm doing my math correctly. In one of the other postings (I don't remember which) there was a mention of 0.02 percent kill rate. Those aren't the words used in the previous post, though.
I'm thinking that 60 people died out of 943 total comes to about 6 percent kill rate.
Is that right? Or am I not using the correct math? That's much worse than the 1918 flu.
Thanks,
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Dana
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Hi Dana, your math looks right to me. However, the 1918 flu killed .02% of the "world population", which is a little different than a "CFR". In 1918, the population during that time was 1.8 billion. The flu infected 20% of the population, or 360 mil people, and of those infected, an estimated 50 million died. So the actual CFR would be around 7%, or very close to what we're seeing now. This could possibly have the minimum potential to be as strong as the 1918 pandemic. Maybe it's his brother, eh? lol
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Annie
Valued Member Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
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Does anyone know the date of the first of the nearly 1000 now being counted as ill with this unusual flu?
I was in Oceanside for Thanksgiving and suddenly became ill, stabilized on Saturday we headed back to East Texas. We only made it to Benson, Arizona before my husband came down suddenly with the flu. Several other traveler in the hotel were stranded with their mates down with the flu. We were weak for several weeks with a nuisance cough that finally dissipated.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/apr2409swine.html
Labs confirm same swine flu in deadly Mexican outbreaks
Samples from a deadly respiratory illness outbreak in Mexico match swine influenza isolates from patients in the United States who had milder illnesses, an official from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today, fueling speculation that the World Health Organization (WHO) could be on the verge of raising the global pandemic alert level. Read article... |
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Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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I agree ZX12R, the next couple of days will tell the story .....
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SusanT
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Lou Dobbs just had a piece on CNN on the Swine Flu...same info as posted here, just interesting to see in on CNN. They confirmed it is too late to contain at this point.
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Gimme
Valued Member Joined: March 19 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 428 |
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Hi Albert,
Does anyone know how it is spread? Fox News reported that the cases in the US .. there was no contact with pigs (not sure if there has to be here). Why is it too late to contain as someone mentioned on this BB it was said on Lou Dobbs CNN? |
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waterboy
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Because right now you probably have people all over the world that have no idea its incubating in there bodies, and they've been in contact with others. Those have also been in contact with others??
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Loribearme
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there are 8 now - not 7
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SusanT
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The feeling is that since there are several sites that have simultaneously emerged that it has already spread beyond what they can reasonably manage without a ground zero. They do not know where it originated, how it developed or have any clue how many people have contracted it already. |
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earwax
Valued Member Joined: May 18 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 72 |
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Thanks Albert. That explains the big difference. Percentage of world vs percentage of infected. Whew!!!
Nobody at the office here is taking this very seriously. They still think I'm a little nuts. I hope that they are right, but this is really not looking too good right now. No matter how this pans out, this board has been great. I learned and forgot a ton of stuff here. Thanks to all of you hard working people and good luck one and all. |
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Dana
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Albert
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Hi Gimme, the cases are spread out too far apart, which indicates it's probably spreading everywhere and so it's too late to contain it, if it if in fact is going to break loose. The WHO confirmed it's being spread via human to human contact. In layman's terms, it's gone airborne...
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Albert
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Thanks for sticking around Dana, over the last few years.
The CFR could also be higher as we are getting no condition reports on the survivors. How many are currently in critical condition? How many on ventilators? The CFR could significantly rise as time goes on.
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roni3470
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So typically I wouldn't be all that worried about this along the lines of mexico doesn't have as strong of health care as we do, all 8 cases in teh US have recovered....so doesn't seem to worrisome. However, the possibility of mutation is scary. Also I think its very scary that the CDC is VERY concerned...what exactly about...the possible stuff Albert is saying that many people are running around carrying and spreading it. Just not sure what to think...but if the CDC is very concernced then you are damn right I am going to be!
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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AlaskaAquarian
Valued Member Joined: April 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 169 |
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Hello all, I'm back.
I haven't been around for a couple of years because there's been a lot that has happened. Got an email from Albert though and felt the need to come back.
This is really scary stuff.....
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WWW.JenZGemZandMore.com
Visit my Homepage |
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THETRUTHWILLOUT
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another worry is,if this thing manages to infect someone with h5n1 and the thing mutates abit more.Its just starting to make the news here in the uk.
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HoosierMom
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Last night while commuting, happened to be listening to the "Mike Savage" radio program the current swine flu discussion came up. A caller from NY ( not sure what area) called in and said that some relative of his ( niece I think) had jus returned from spring break from MEXICO, alot of other school kids had went evident., and yesterday 500 kids were missing from school due to illness ! Again this is not confirmed, and I have only listened to this broadcast a couple times. I just wanted people on this site in that area to keep a watch out !!!!! I will try to poke around and see if there are any articles, anyone else see anything please post in. THanks HoosierMom
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HoosierMom
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Ok Duuuuuh I just saw the link about the prep school Sooo sorry to repeat the info.
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gady71
Valued Member Joined: June 06 2006 Location: Romania Status: Offline Points: 1661 |
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Maybe WHO should rise pandemic alert level to 4 - "Evidence of increased human-to-human transmission" ?
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I do apologize for my poor english. Prepare for the Worst and Hope for the Best!
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ME163
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Of course they must raise the level to 4 but they won't do it because they are actually hiding the info and not doing the facts correctly. They don't give a damm about us and they are actually doing the last preps for themselves and not for anyone else
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Perhaps they don't want to panic people as they do not expect the number of deaths from this as they expected from H5N1? I agree that they should...they will be closing public events in large cites I hope... if it spreads.
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Albert
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If the cases continue to increase over the next few days, then they will probably raise it immediately. The question is, what's happening now in Mexico?? And elswhere?? Perhaps the CDC will talk about it in today's briefing.
Over the next few months, all of our lives might be turned upside down if this thing continues to spread. Could you imagine the panic during next flu season when people are getting sick with the flu, and they don't know if it's the regular flu or the swine flu?? Yes.... panic will be in the air...
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Chloess
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As a federal employee I sincerely hope that would not be the case. They have closed public events in Mexico as I understand the current news. I work for the Dept. of Commerce and if they send any official warnings out on Monday I will be sure to update you all.
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endman
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I wonder if it could go Global not just Mexico or US
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ME163
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Well yes it really could go global. International travel being such a mess anyway. The issue is actually, who is going to die and when are they going to die. The epidemiological reports are not clear on this virus. There are a series of unknown and unknowable events here.
We all need to pick up the pace of planning etc |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The one thing about the Mexico outbreak is that it's a localized outbreak, which works in the same pattern as the regular flu. Whenever there is a regular flu outbreak, it will usually only effect a certain geographical location at a time, until the outbreak pops un in the next location. So outbreaks are large, and they will be constantly moving. There will be flare-ups, and then it will disappear. For example: The Mexico City outbreak might taper-off now, but there will most likely be more simultaneous large outbreaks in other cities. Come next winter, the outbreaks could be everywhere, and happening with a lot of frequency. Something like this could potentially sweep the globe during the winter months like a tsunami of sorts. The outbreaks might be easy to dodge for now ( in the summer months), but they probably won't be by next winter. So live it up now, eh? lol
We should be watching for possible outbreaks in areas such as Los Angeles & New York. |
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Sounds about right to me....and with coinfection of other winter illness and current pandemic strains...not a fun winter.
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Albert
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They are reporting 20 confirmed deaths in Mexico. Now, there is a chance that a lot the 1000 "suspected cases" in Mexico are the regular flu. The bad news is, if there are a lot less actual cases, but with 20 confirmed deaths, that could mean that it's more of a killing machine. We need to get a few answers (hard numbers of what we're dealing with) sooner than later.
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ME163
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Albert, we need information and a honest heads up from WHO and CDC. However it is not going to happen upfront. We are going to have to fight for the real truth and when we get it accordingly.
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Annie
Valued Member Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
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This swine flu and regular flu can have similar symptoms — mostly fever, cough and sore throat, though some of the U.S. victims who recovered also experienced vomiting and diarrhea. But unlike with regular flu, humans don't have natural immunity to a virus that includes animal genes — and new vaccines can take months to bring into use. A "seed stock" genetically matched to the new swine flu virus has been created by the CDC, said Dr. Richard Besser, the agency's acting director. If the government decides vaccine production is necessary, manufacturers would need that stock to get started. |
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Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
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Graywolf
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 124 |
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I think they should have took it to 4!I think Money has alot to do with it.Some people are gonna lose alot if they do!!Hate to think that way but just seems that way to me!
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Something wicked these way comes!!
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lastoneturnouttheli
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I posted a new topic called "cough cough" that linked to an essay that explains how factory farms are responsible for these new bugs, a conclusion reached by WHO, CDC, etc, and pointing out that the mexican flu will likely recombine with the asian bird flu to give that super-bug transmissability, but my post was somehow deleted so I reposted. Does anybody know if someone here won't allow criticism of factory farms?
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Hi Lastone, I did not delete your post, but I relocated it to the "General Discussion" section of the forum. It was an interesting read, but items of general interest and discussion should go in General Discussion. The "Latest News" section is only for actual news articles and comments. A post in Latest News should always start off with the actual news article first, with the article headline placed in the Topic headline, and then of course people can comment after that, but the first post on a News Thread always has to be the actual breaking news story. There are some exceptions now again.
I apologize for the confusion. You can always feel free to post anything you like in General Discussion.
Albert
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