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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

"MERS virus is spreading at a terrifying rate"

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jacksdad View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 24 2014 at 2:24pm
"What's been truly alarming has been the recent surge in numbers of those infected, with more confirmed so far this year than in all of 2013".

I hold my hands up and admit I never saw this coming. Like many of us, I'd pretty much written off MERS as being any kind of threat, and yet here we are watching it explode outside of the cold/flu season. What suddenly supercharged this virus - mutation or...?





The deadly MERS virus is spreading at a terrifying rate

  • By Ishaan Tharoor
Saudi medical staff leave the emergency department at a hospital in the center of the Saudi capital Riyadh on April 8, 2014. The health ministry reported four more MERS cases in Jeddah, two of them among health workers, prompting authorities to close the emergency department at the citys King Fahd Hospital.      AFP PHOTO/FAYEZ NURELDINEFAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP/Getty Images

Saudi medical staff leave the emergency department at a hospital in the center of the Saudi capital Riyadh on April 8, 2014. AFP PHOTO/FAYEZ NURELDINEFAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP/Getty Images

On Thursday, the Saudi Arabian health ministry confirmed 13 more cases of patients contracting MERS-CoV, the acronym for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, as well as two more deaths. MERS-CoV is an infectious disease with no known cure and is considered more deadly than SARS--which killed some 800 people during a 2002-2003 outbreak that first started in China. Since 2012, 83 people have died and 285 people have contracted the virus in the Kingdom alone. It has spread to the neighboring United Arab Emirates. Reports also suggest pilgrims from as far afield as Malaysia and the Philippines contracted the virus while on hajj in Mecca.

What's been truly alarming has been the recent surge in numbers of those infected, with more confirmed reports so far this year than in all of 2013. Ian Mackay, an epidemiologist at the Australian Infectious Diseases Research Centre at the University of Queensland, has been monitoring the spread of the disease. In the chart he tweeted below, note the dramatic spike in cases in the past month (KSA is the acronym for the Kingdom).

The Saudi health ministry has been criticized for inadequately dealing with the situation. A lack of data shared by the Saudis has made it difficult for experts like Mackay as well as monitors at the WHO to study whether the virus has mutated and become more easily transmissible between humans--a development that could pave the way for a pandemic.

Public health experts and epidemiologists are still struggling to understand where the virus originated and how it spreads--with most suggesting it emerged through contact with camels, and others pointing to bats as prime carriers of the virus.

On Monday, the Saudi government removed health minister Abdullah al-Rabiah from his post, without offering an official explanation. His replacement, Adel Fakieh, promised "transparency and to promptly provide the media and society with the information needed." But that may not soothe local fears. In Jeddah, where the majority of cases have been reported, four doctors resigned earlier this month after refusing to treat MERS-CoV patients. That's hardly a vote of confidence as international health officials and Saudi Arabia's panicked neighbors look to the Kingdom to stave off a potential global outbreak.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/04/24/the-deadly-mers-virus-is-spreading-at-a-terrifying-rate/


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Utwig View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Utwig Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 2:31pm


The current thinking on the recent upsurge of cases is that MERS seems to be following the SARS seasonal pattern in that it peaks in April/May but will fall back to be almost non-existent by June.

I hope this is the case and that MERS has not mutated, but the level of activity in the last 4 weeks is defo alarming. I saw today that the first case was reported in Mecca itself, so this years annual pilgrimages are going to be interesting. Or maybe not, it may follow last years pattern, who knows?

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BOB C. View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BOB C. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 2:37pm
Originally posted by Utwig Utwig wrote:



The current thinking on the recent upsurge of cases is that MERS seems to be following the SARS seasonal pattern in that it peaks in April/May but will fall back to be almost non-existent by June.

I hope this is the case and that MERS has not mutated, but the level of activity in the last 4 weeks is defo alarming. I saw today that the first case was reported in Mecca itself, so this years annual pilgrimages are going to be interesting. Or maybe not, it may follow last years pattern, who knows?

Utwig

Interesting you said that, since now we have over 2,000 vials from France missing of the SARS virus.  Since MERS and SARS are cousins from the same family, could there be a connection.....my 2 cents.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Utwig Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 2:41pm

Hi Bob,

Yes, I read about that, the SARS vials going missing. I doubt if its related, MERS seems to be doing pretty well on its own without malevolent human interference, but the idea there could be SARS out there in the wrong hands is worrying.

One thing I will say though, is that don't be surprised of the vials are found again. Its not uncommon in any environment for things to be misplaced by accident, or the person who put them in the wrong fridge may have gone on holiday. Lets hope for the best on that one.

Utwig
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 3:19pm

WHO Expresses Concern About Rising Number of MERS-CoV Cases

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The World Health Organization (WHO) is concerned about the rising number of cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in recent weeks, especially in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and in particular that two significant outbreaks occurred in healthcare facilities.

“Approximately 75 percent of the recently reported cases are secondary cases, meaning that they are considered to have acquired the infection from another case through human-to-human transmission,” says WHO regional director for the Eastern Mediterranean, Dr. Ala Alwan. “The majority of these secondary cases have been infected within the healthcare setting and are mainly healthcare workers, although several patients are also considered to have been infected with MERS-CoV while in hospital for other reasons.”

Although the majority of the cases had either no or only minor symptoms, and most do not continue to spread the virus, WHO acknowledges that some critical information gaps remain to better understand the transmission of the virus as well as the route of infection. WHO is unaware at this point in time of the specific types of exposure in the health care facilities that have resulted in transmission of these infections, but this remains a concern.

Therefore, WHO has offered its assistance to mobilize international expertise to work jointly with national health authorities in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to investigate the current outbreaks in order to determine the transmission chain of this recent cluster and whether there is any evolving risk that may be associated with the current transmissibility pattern of the virus.

Since the emergence of MERS in April 2012, a total of 253 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infections with MERS have been reported to WHO, including 93 deaths. These cases have been reported in the Middle East (including Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates); in Europe (France, Germany, Greece, Italy and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland); in North Africa (Tunisia); and in Asia (Malaysia and the Philippines). The source and mode of infection for the virus remain undetermined.

Several recent cases of people becoming infected in either Saudi Arabia or United Arab Emirates and travelling to a third country have also been reported. Greece, Jordan, Malaysia, and Philippines each reported one such case. So far no further spread of the virus in those countries has been detected. Imported cases already occurred in the past that resulted in limited further human-to-human transmission in France and United Kingdom.

WHO urges all of its member states to remain vigilant and enhance surveillance to detect any early sign that the virus has changed and has attained the possibilities of causing sustained person-to-person transmission. WHO expects that it is only through an enhanced coordinated effort the mystery and the risk to global health associated with the emergence of this virus can be unraveled.

Source: WHO 

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BOB C: View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BOB C: Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 3:52pm
Originally posted by Utwig Utwig wrote:


Hi Bob,

Yes, I read about that, the SARS vials going missing. I doubt if its related, MERS seems to be doing pretty well on its own without malevolent human interference, but the idea there could be SARS out there in the wrong hands is worrying.

One thing I will say though, is that don't be surprised of the vials are found again. Its not uncommon in any environment for things to be misplaced by accident, or the person who put them in the wrong fridge may have gone on holiday. Lets hope for the best on that one.

Utwig
I pray that's the case, but I think the number was 2,300 vials with a few more added to that number.  That's a lot to misplace, but I hope your right and it's not some false flag in store in the near future.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ounijrara Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 7:05pm
this illness has no record of a Caucasian getting infected. again- could this be an ethno  bioweapon? the threat would be regional then as it seems only arab bloodlines get it. implications ugly and scary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 7:43pm
ounijrara,is that even possible? Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2014 at 7:58pm
It is possible....Just like SARS in Toronto did not effect blacks.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME???

Seriously ounijara... Are you just trying to stir things up or do you seriously believe that *****?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Strategos Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2014 at 3:05pm
Originally posted by Guest Guest wrote:

It is possible....Just like SARS in Toronto did not effect blacks.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME???

Seriously ounijara... Are you just trying to stir things up or do you seriously believe that *****?
 
Hi gang, been awhile since I've been on.
First, I don't feel Ounijara was trying to start anything. I could be wrong, but I think he was stating something that In fact would be hard for anyone to believe, including myself. I however, wouldn't want to test your assumption, or fact as you might argue. After all, what is beyond the thought of a evil heart, I of course, say nothing. So it  very possible for such a bio-weapon to exist, or at least conceived of.
 
In any case, have a good day.
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