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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Total Ebola Case: 2127 cases / 1145 deaths

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:30am
Date of report Total Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Nigeria
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
13 Aug 2014 2,127 1,145 519 380 786 413 810 348 12 4
11 Aug 2014 1,975 1,069 510 377 670 355 783 334 12 3
9 Aug 2014 1,848 1,013 506 373 599 323 730 315 13 2
6 Aug 2014 1,779 961 495 367 554 294 717 298 13 2
4 Aug 2014 1,711 932 495 363 516 282 691 286 9 1
1 Aug 2014 1,603 887 485 358 468 255 646 273 4 1
30 Jul 2014 1,440 826 472 346 391 227 574 252 3 1
27 Jul 2014 1,323 729 460 339 329 156 533 233 1 1
23 Jul 2014 1,201 672 427 319 249 129 525 224

20 Jul 2014 1,093 660 415 314 224 127 454 219

18 Jul 2014 1,048 632 410 310 196 116 442 206

15 Jul 2014 964 603 406 304 172 105 386 194

10 Jul 2014 888 539 409 309 142 88 337 142

8 Jul 2014 844 518 408 307 131 84 305 127

2 Jul 2014 759 467 413 303 107 65 239 99

24 Jun 2014 599 338 390 270 51 34 158 49

18 Jun 2014 528 337 398 264 33 24 97 34

10 Jun 2014 474 252 372 236 13 9 89 7

5 Jun 2014 438 231 344 215 13 9 81 7

2 Jun 2014 354 208 291 193 13 9 50 6

27 May 2014 309 200 281 186 12 9 16 5

23 May 2014 270 181 258 174 12 9



14 May 2014 245 164 233 157 12 9



5 May 2014 243 162 231 155 12 9



30 Apr 2014 233 153 221 146 12 9



23 Apr 2014 220 143 208 136 12 9



21 Apr 2014 215 136 203 129 12 9



17 Apr 2014 209 129 197 122 12 9



10 Apr 2014 169 108 157 101 12 9



7 Apr 2014 163 102 151 95 12 7



2 Apr 2014 135 88 127 83 8 5



1 Apr 2014 130 82 122 80 8 2



31 Mar 2014 114 70 112 70 2 0



27 Mar 2014 103 66 103 66





26 Mar 2014 86 60 86 60





25 Mar 2014 86 59 86 59



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atheris View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote atheris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:34am
Nowadays i would prefer living in Guinea... the promised land where you are not allowed to die, at least not because of ebola....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:34am
Case are certainly increasing - except for Guinea.  Guinea didn't report one case.  

Daily activity chart:



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:34am
Pretty close Cobber.
"And then there were none."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:36am
That's right Atheris, Guinea is spared from Ebola.   Can't believe the WHO is putting up with this.

Whatever Guinea's number says - triple it.

Cobber darn near called it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:37am
Huge increase, over 7% in a few days?
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote quietprepr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:51am
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

Huge increase, over 7% in a few days?
I think we all know that the cases and deaths are dramatically underreported, but when you see a 7% increase in just a couple of days, it is rather shocking.
"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:57am
The WHO recently announced that the cases are vastly underestimated or reported.  Perhaps double the total cases maybe safe to assume?  But who knows... 

This is why the WHO reps get paid the big bucks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 11:20am
Well Boss, it is not for their reportage.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 9:09pm
Hey Albert where are you getting the numbers from. Can you give me a link?
Is this last total coming from the 13th or the 15th.

By mu numbers the 15th makes more sense

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 9:10pm
my
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 16 2014 at 4:50am
New graph and still trending above. This graph maybe a little light on. I'm working on a new one. I think the reproduction number maybe a little higher, but not much.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 16 2014 at 2:12pm
OK - will message you link in a few, although there is no different information other  than what's been posted here. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 16 2014 at 2:18pm
The fact is - history is in making at the moment, and this event will surely be noted in the history books.    History is being made, but perhaps for all the wrong reasons.  Whether it's dubbed "Ebola scare of 2014", or "largest Ebola outbreak in recorded history", or "the Great Ebola Pandemic",  history is being written and recorded   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 16 2014 at 2:21pm
What You Need to Know About the Ebola Outbreak

How many people have been infected?
More than 1,975 people in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone have contracted Ebola since March, according to the World Health Organization, making this the biggest outbreak on record. More than 1,050 people have died. Two American aid workers infected with Ebola while working in West Africa were taken to a containment unit in Atlanta for treatment.
Guinea200400600Mar 22Aug 11377deaths510casesLiberia200400600Mar 22Aug 11355deaths670casesSierra Leone200400600Mar 22Aug 11334deaths783casesNigeria200400600Mar 223deaths12cases
Where is the outbreak?

Confirmed and

probable cases

Suspected

cases

Areas with military roadblocks

and restrictions on travel

Borders closed

GUINEA-BISSAU

MALI

GUINEA

Conakry

Atlantic Ocean

SIERRA

LEONE

Guéckédou

Freetown

IVORY

COAST

WEST AFRICA

LIBERIA

Monrovia

NIGERIA

DETAIL

100 Miles

Note: Areas affected as of August 11.

Sources: European Commission; U.S. Department of State.

What are the chances of getting Ebola in the United States?
Two American aid workers infected with the Ebola virus while working in West Africa are being treated at a hospital in Atlanta, in a containment unit for patients with dangerous infectious diseases. But the risk that anyone will contract Ebola in the United States is extremely small, experts say.

Doctors across the country are being reminded to ask for the travel history of anybody who comes in with a fever. Patients who have been to West Africa are being screened and tested if there seems to be a chance they have been exposed. Heightened concern about the virus led to alarms being raised at three hospitals in New York City. But no Ebola cases have turned up. If someone were to bring the virus to the United States, standard procedures for infection control are likely to contain it.

It helps that Ebola does not spread nearly as easily as Hollywood movies about contagious diseases might suggest. In 2008, a patient who had contracted Marburg – a virus much like Ebola – in Uganda was treated at a hospital in the United States and could have exposed more than 200 people to the disease before anyone would have known what she had. Yet no one became sick.
How does this compare to past outbreaks?
It is the deadliest, eclipsing an outbreak in 1976, the year the virus was discovered.

Ebola cases and deaths by year, and countries affected

Cases

Deaths

1976

1995

2000

2007

2014

2nd-worst year

5th

3rd

4th

1st

Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo

Democratic Republic of Congo

Uganda

Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo

Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Nigeria

602 cases

431 deaths

315 cases

254 deaths

425 cases

224 deaths

413 cases

224 deaths

1,975 cases

1,069 deaths

as of August 11

How contagious is the virus?
You are not likely to catch Ebola just by being in proximity with someone who has the virus; it is not airborne, like the flu or respiratory viruses such as SARS.

Instead, Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids. If an infected person’s blood or vomit gets in another person’s eyes, nose or mouth, the infection may be transmitted. In the current outbreak, most new cases are occurring among people who have been taking care of sick relatives or who have prepared an infected body for burial.

Health care workers are at high risk, especially if they have not been properly equipped with or trained to use and decontaminate protective gear correctly.

The virus can survive on surfaces, so any object contaminated with bodily fluids, like a latex glove or a hypodermic needle, may spread the disease.
Why is Ebola so difficult to contain?
The epidemic is growing faster than efforts to keep up with it, and it will take months before governments and health workers in the region can get the upper hand, according to Doctors Without Borders.

In some parts of West Africa, there is a belief that simply saying “Ebola” aloud makes the disease appear. Such beliefs have created major obstacles for physicians, who are trying to combat the outbreak. Some people have even blamed physicians for the spread of the virus, opting to turn to witch doctors for treatment instead. Their skepticism is not without a grain of truth: In past outbreaks, hospital staff members who did not take thorough precautions became unwitting travel agents for the virus.

Ahmed Jallanzo/European Pressphoto Agency

Liberian health workers on the way to bury a woman who died of the Ebola virus.

How does the disease progress?
Symptoms usually appear about eight to 10 days after exposure, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At first, it seems much like the flu: a headache, fever and aches and pains. Sometimes there is also a rash. Diarrhea and vomiting follow.

Then, in about half of the cases, Ebola takes a severe turn, causing victims to hemorrhage. They may vomit blood or pass it in urine, or bleed under the skin or from their eyes or mouths. But bleeding is not usually what kills patients. Rather, blood vessels deep in the body begin leaking fluid, causing blood pressure to plummet so low that the heart, kidneys, liver and other organs begin to fail.
How is the disease treated?
There is no vaccine or definitive cure for Ebola, and in past outbreaks the virus has been fatal in 60 to 90 percent of cases. The United States government plans to fast-track development of a vaccine shown to protect macaque monkeys, but there is no guarantee it will be effective in humans. The question of who should have access to the scarce supplies of an experimental medicine has become a hotly debated ethical question. Beyond this, all physicians can do is try to nurse people through the illness, using fluids and medicines to maintain blood pressure, and treat other infections that often strike their weakened bodies. A small percentage of people appear to have an immunity to the Ebola virus.
Where does the disease come from?
Ebola was first discovered in 1976, and it was once thought to originate in gorillas, because human outbreaks began after people ate gorilla meat. But scientists have since ruled out that theory, partly because apes that become infected are even more likely to die than humans.

Scientists now believe that bats are the natural reservoir for the virus, and that apes and humans catch it from eating food that bats have drooled or defecated on, or by coming in contact with surfaces covered in infected bat droppings and then touching their eyes or mouths.

The current outbreak seems to have started in a village near Guéckédou, Guinea, where bat hunting is common, according to Doctors Without Borders.
How does Ebola compare with other infectious diseases in the news?
The biggest headlines have tended to involve outbreaks of deadly viruses that medical workers have few, if any, tools to combat. The four most prominent are compared below. No cure is known for any of them, nor has any vaccine yet been approved for human use.

EbolaMarburgMERSSARS
Emerged / identified1976; latest outbreak in 20141967; latest major outbreak in 20052012-20132002-2003
LocusOriginally, Congo Basin and central Africa; latest strain, West AfricaOriginally, central Europe; latest major outbreak, AngolaArabian peninsulaSouthern China
Suspected sourceFruit bats, by way of monkeys and other animalsFruit bats, sometimes by way of monkeysBats, by way of camelsBats, by way of civets
Type of virusFilovirusFilovirusCoronavirusCoronavirus
Type of illnessHemorrhagic feverHemorrhagic feverRespiratory syndromeRespiratory syndrome
Fatality rate in outbreaks50% to 90%24% to 88%About 30%About 10%
Known cases4,000+570+830+8,200+
Known deaths2700+470+290+775+
Person-to-person transmissionReadily by close contact or fluids; not by aerosolReadily by close contact or fluids; not by aerosolNot very readily; mechanism unclearVery readily by aerosol, fluids or close contact

By Joe Burgess, Denise Grady, Josh Keller, Patrick J. Lyons, Heather Murphy and Sergio Peçanha.

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 16 2014 at 2:23pm
BATS BATS BATS they seem to be the common Vector......
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 16 2014 at 2:40pm
That's been my take for decades.
"And then there were none."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 18 2014 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Hey Albert where are you getting the numbers from. Can you give me a link?
Is this last total coming from the 13th or the 15th.

By mu numbers the 15th makes more sense



Cobber - from wikipedia and this guy is on it.   Updates it fairly quick minutes after WHO.  scroll down-
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak

Also be sure to post the new grid if you could or anyone when it's updated.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2014 at 12:39am
Thanks Albert
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote atheris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2014 at 11:36am
hi cobber, thank you much for your work....

2005-2006 i liked working with spss program on things in this direction, but i see that my skils now are horrible. Could i please ask you ( i tried it myself but did not succeed a good job), to take the evolution values from Sierra leone (which i consider most trustful from all) and insert in the number series from Guinea (i think that from about 10-18 april there the numbers are not realistic), and see about how this thing might evolve in real numbers, with that rectification. I would send you my email if you do not want to publish that, but i do consider that in that case the reality would come much closer about the actual hapennings down there..

kind regards,
atheris 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2014 at 5:01pm
Hi Guys just an update of the numbers totals 
18 Aug 20142,4731,350
This is trending above my new prediction and what i consider a high range of 30 day doubling. This is scary!!!! 

The WHO would be working of similar number and this would be sending them into a panic too......

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