Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Any predictions on the next numbers? |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Good posts. If this bug get's into Asia, I'm guessing we might see those types of long term numbers and there may be little stopping it.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Onefluover - you have to remember that a disease needs two things to trigger a major pandemic - a high CAR and CFR. This strain's holding steady at about 60% CFR, but can it infect efficiently enough to kick off an uncontrollable pandemic with the kind of contagion we've seen in West Africa? I doubt it. As we discussed in another thread, genetic immunity alone would make seven billion an impossible figure for one virus - even flu can only infect about 50 % of the population.
If we talk real world numbers, in six months Ebola has infected a very small percentage of the population of the four countries so far affected. By contrast, something like flu moves incredibly fast with a very short incubation period. You referenced Spanish Flu - during the 1918 pandemic, against advice from every medical expert, Philadelphia held a Liberty Loan parade. Thousands of people lined the streets to watch, and within 72 hours every single bed in the city's thirty one hospitals filled up with newly infected flu victims. It may have killed a much smaller percentage of those infected but H1N1's ability to spread far outstripped anything Ebola is capable of, and that makes all the difference. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I agree. This virus would be right at home in many places around the world, Asia included. Imagine an outbreak in many of the poorer areas of the world, like the slums of India and favelas of South America. Ebola in Rio or São Paulo could be even worse than West Africa given the poverty and population density. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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3560 / 1708
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rickster58
Moderator Joined: March 09 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 4875 |
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Based on Sarah's spread sheet (which I hope you have all downloaded), the predicted numbers for September 2014 are
5175 / 2600 |
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