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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Any predictions on the next numbers?

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 7:49am
Good posts.  If this bug get's into Asia, I'm guessing we might see those types of long term numbers and there may be little stopping it.  
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jacksdad View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 9:39am
Onefluover - you have to remember that a disease needs two things to trigger a major pandemic - a high CAR and CFR. This strain's holding steady at about 60% CFR, but can it infect efficiently enough to kick off an uncontrollable pandemic with the kind of contagion we've seen in West Africa? I doubt it. As we discussed in another thread, genetic immunity alone would make seven billion an impossible figure for one virus - even flu can only infect about 50 % of the population.
If we talk real world numbers, in six months Ebola has infected a very small percentage of the population of the four countries so far affected. By contrast, something like flu moves incredibly fast with a very short incubation period.
You referenced Spanish Flu - during the 1918 pandemic, against advice from every medical expert, Philadelphia held a Liberty Loan parade. Thousands of people lined the streets to watch, and within 72 hours every single bed in the city's thirty one hospitals filled up with newly infected flu victims. It may have killed a much smaller percentage of those infected but H1N1's ability to spread far outstripped anything Ebola is capable of, and that makes all the difference.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2014 at 9:59am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

If this bug get's into Asia, I'm guessing we might see those types of long term numbers and there may be little stopping it.  


I agree. This virus would be right at home in many places around the world, Asia included. Imagine an outbreak in many of the poorer areas of the world, like the slums of India and favelas of South America. Ebola in Rio or São Paulo could be even worse than West Africa given the poverty and population density.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2014 at 7:15pm
3560 / 1708
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rickster58 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2014 at 7:32pm
Based on Sarah's spread sheet (which I hope you have all downloaded), the predicted numbers for September 2014 are

5175 / 2600
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