The Ebola outbreak in West Africa eventually could exceed 20,000 cases, more than six times as many as doctors know about now, the World Health Organization said Thursday.

A new plan to stop Ebola by the U.N. health agency also assumes that in many hard-hit areas, the actual number of cases may be two to four times higher than is currently reported.

The agency published new figures saying that 1,552 people have died from the killer virus from among the 3,069 cases reported so far in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Nigeria. At least 40 percent of the cases have been in just the last three weeks, the U.N. health agency said, adding that "the outbreak continues to accelerate."

In Geneva, the agency also released a new plan for handling the Ebola crisis that aims to stop Ebola transmission in affected countries within six to nine months and prevent it from spreading internationally.

Dr. Bruce Aylward, WHO's assistant director-general, told reporters the plan would cost $489 million over the next nine months and require the assistance of 750 international workers and 12,000 national workers.

The 20,000 figure, he added, "is a scale that I think has not ever been anticipated in terms of an Ebola outbreak."

"That's not saying we expect 20,000," he added. "But we have got to have a system in place that we can deal with robust numbers."

Aylward said the far-higher caseload is believed to come from cities.

"It's really just some urban areas that have outstripped the reporting capacity," he said.

Aylward also said the agency is urging airlines to lift most of their restrictions about flying to Ebola-hit nations because a predictable "air link" is needed to help deal with the crisis. Air France on Wednesday cancelled its flights to Sierra Leone. Aylward said the agency hopes airlines will lift most restrictions within two weeks.

Nigerian authorities, meanwhile, said a man who contracted Ebola after coming into contact with a traveler from Liberia had evaded their surveillance efforts and infected a doctor in southern Nigeria who later died.

The announcement of a sixth death in Nigeria marked the first fatality outside the commercial capital of Lagos, where a Liberian-American man Patrick Sawyer arrived in late July and later died of Ebola. On Wednesday, Nigerian authorities had said they not yet eliminated the disease from Africa's most populous nation but that it was being contained.

The doctor's wife is also in isolation now after she starting showing symptoms of Ebola, Nigerian Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu added. Morticians who embalmed the doctor are part of a group of 70 people now under surveillance in Port Harcourt.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/3rd-doctor-dies-ebola-sierra-leone-25148525

Maybe Cobber can help us out with that.


I'm not really following how it's possible to contain 20,000 cases when it's spread by human-to-human transmission.  I must be missing something.  

Albert wrote: .. In Geneva, the agency also released a new plan for handling the Ebola crisis that aims to stop Ebola transmission in affected countries within six to nine months and prevent it from spreading internationally.

Well, I'm afraid there will be no containing 20,000 cases, in my opinion anyway.

As I would guess as well, we'll be looking at international spread soon.  

Also curious about the "new plan" released.  Although they're doing a good job, they're old plan certainly isn't working that well.  Hope the new plan works or we're looking at a potential Ebola pandemic.

Hi..The sheeple will never wake up and get their heads out of the sand till it's too late..Wifes cousin and hubby are coming over for dinner this weekend,and I'm not going to bring up Ebola! Every time I bring up any type of of doomy type stuff they always change the subject..I dont know,maybe I'm just too much.

Add to the above those 2 cases...

The doctor who treated a sawyer contact where the contact initially tested negative...then the doctor died, now his wife is positive...after the contact was cleared after the 21 days.

And the British nurse who got infected by the infant, who tested negative also....after 21 days then died.

We are starting to see people test negative, then infect others. This is a big deal, and I am sure the who is well aware, as there are several news stories about this circulating now...we just are not seeing people put the pieces together yet.

Air France should shut down all its flights in and out of W. Africa immediately. If supplies are needed, then transport planes should be used, not passenger planes!!!!!

Regarding, the post immediately above, concerning the "up to 21 day incubation period", that is exactly my point concerning air travel. They don't have to show symptoms on the flight, but after they get to wherever they go to.

I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT THIS IS AN ORCHESTRATED EVENT TO CURB WORLD POPULATION. THE AIR TRAVEL SITUATION LACKS TOTAL COMMON SENSE, SO THAT LEAVES THE ONLY OTHER OBVIOUS REASON, AND THAT IS THAT THEY ARE DOING THIS ON PURPOSE. No rational person can come to any other logical opinions as to why air travel out of west Africa is still allowed.

sorry guys i dont have a graph for you. I've been busy.. just some rough numbers. By January 10th we will be at 30,000 based off the current trajectory. IE 30 day doubling, which is pretty accurate.