Ebola cases could grow by thousands per week if current spread continues: WHO
Ebola outbreak

This undated photo made available by the Antwerp Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium, shows the Ebola virus viewed through an electron microscope. (AP / Antwerp Institute of Tropical Medicine)
Share:
Text:

     
     
    Share on print
    (0)


Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press
Published Friday, September 5, 2014 12:48PM EDT

TORONTO -- The Ebola outbreak could increase at a rate of thousands of new cases per week by early October, World Health Organization figures suggest.

An epidemiologist working in the office of WHO Director General Margaret Chan said Friday at the current rate of growth, that is where this unprecedented outbreak is heading.

"The story is looking quite bleak. There are signs that the numbers of cases are not just continuing to arise in most parts that are already infected in the three main countries, but they are continuing to increase week on week," Christopher Dye, director of strategy in Chan's office, said in an interview with The Canadian Press.
Related Stories

    Health experts, scientists advise WHO on experimental Ebola vaccines
    New Brunswick's top doctor heading to Africa's Ebola outbreak
    U.S. to provide $75M for expanded Ebola wards, protective suits

"If we make a simple projection on what has happened over the last, say, 10 weeks ... and make a projection forward, then what we're faced with is not hundreds of cases a week, which is what we see at the moment, but thousands of cases a week going into next month.

"And that would really be an awful scenario because ... health services are already very seriously stretched."

Dye, who has been seconded to the Ebola response team from the WHO's tuberculosis and HIV-AIDS work, said the agency isn't clear that the growth will hit that rate. There has never been an Ebola epidemic remotely this big, so disease experts are uncertain how long the outbreak will continue to grow.

Dye noted that so far nearly 3,700 people in West Africa have been infected, in an area of the continent that is home to about 20 million people -- many if not all of whom are likely to be susceptible to infection, if they are exposed to the virus.

"We just don't have a sense of what the maximum number of cases could be under these circumstances," Dye admitted.

He said the Geneva-based global health agency is looking for ways to figure out how and why the outbreak might peak, but the task is proving to be difficult at the moment.

"We just don't whether that's what's going to happen," he said of the possibility that cases might increase by thousands per week if the outbreak isn't brought under control.

"That's just assuming that what's going to happen next week is the same as happened last week, the week before and the week before that. Because we have no basis for making any other projection at the moment. ... So all we can do is look at the data as they come in."

He noted that as of now, only portions of the three main countries in the outbreak -- Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone -- are seeing cases. Of the roughly 200 districts in the three countries, he said, only about 14 are experiencing ongoing spread of the virus.

An update issued by the WHO on Friday put some numbers on that situation.

It said Liberia continues to be the most affected country, reporting more than 200 cases a week over the past three weeks. Sierra Leone has reported more than 150 per week for the past two weeks and Guinea reported more than 100 last week.

The overall case fatality rate -- the percentage of infected people who die -- is 53 per cent, though that is only of known cases. It varies among the affected countries, ranging from 39 per cent in Sierra Leone to 64 per cent in Guinea.

The update said there remains a critical shortage of Ebola treatment centre beds in the three worst hit countries. Based on current capacity and needs, an additional 980 beds are required; the Liberian capital of Monrovia alone needs 760 more treatment beds.

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/ebola-cases-could-grow-by-thousands-per-week-if-current-spread-continues-who-1.1993024#ixzz3CSlAy1A0


http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/ebola-cases-could-grow-by-thousands-per-week-if-current-spread-continues-who-1.1993024

Pretty scary stuff.

Thousands of new cases per week would be a pretty grim future ahead - for everybody