Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Elver
Valued Member Joined: June 14 2008 Status: Offline Points: 7778 |
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Posted: September 30 2014 at 9:36pm |
What happens when someone flies on Air France out of W. Africa and is infectious at the airport in France. Now suppose they infect someone who is returning to Calcutta India, Beijing China, or Pakistan?
Our CDC is so confident that this won't become a problem in the U.S., but this isn't simply a U.S. possibility. As long as air traffic continues from infected countries, it is a world wide probability. We've already seen how someone returning from W. Africa was infectious for 4 days down in Texas and now those EMS workers have to be quarantined. When someone infects other people in any another very crowded city somewhere else in this world we're done for. Now I know that the people at the CDC and the World Health Organization are intelligent people, but the mere fact that the borders haven't been slammed shut in these countries tells me one thing. And that is that they want this to become a global pandemic for population control. No logical person could ever come to any other conclusion than that. Some time into the future we'll be blogging about patient zero in India or somewhere else where it became unstoppable the world over. What then? Well, it will continue to circulate forever, possibly becoming airborne. I fail to understand how our own CDC is so overconfident about stopping this when it has exploded in numbers in W. Africa. This is a joke. CDC = Center for Disease Continuation WHO = Worldwide Horrific Outbreak |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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No dear, the reason the borders stay open is MONEY.
Man cannot serve two masters, and money trumps all, not global safety. You are dead right on the rest though. I believe we have a few months prepping time still. They will sit on this patient's contacts, and the next few. Then they will become complacent and all hell will break loose. I particularly love the "Centers for Disease Continuation" and "Worldwide Horrific Outbreak" |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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In a nutshell:
The CDC, state, federal and all the other interested party's cannot afford panic. The most important response to an emerging threat to public safety is controlling the message, and shaping the public's response.....damage control is the common term. I hate to put this in such sharp terms, but, during the cold war there existed some plans/practicals for the response to a nuclear exchange, where in certain scenarios it would be more prudent NOT to warn a certain population of a imminent hit on their city, for fear that the resulting panic would expose more people out in the open to the blast...considering the fact that a population did not have time to escape the blast radius anyway. In a rather morbid/ pragmatic way more people were calculated to survive. The point is the CDC gains nothing by creating panic, panic is the governments enemy. The playbook says control-mitigate damage, maintain order, carefully disseminate information that is use-full, and not damaging to the overall objective. What I find most fascinating is how the rhetoric changes. As the outbreak unfolded the CDC was sounding the alarm bell, warning of dire consequences. There is no question that the messages were alarmist. But since yesterday we see the persona of confidence from the CDC, no panic, no danger to the public etc; everything is under control... "I fail to understand how our own CDC is so overconfident about stopping this when it has exploded in numbers in W. Africa. This is a joke." They are not overconfident, they are scared, they just cant tell us that. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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atheris
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to me it is kind of weird that the very first country outside the w afrcan zone hit by ebola is exactly usa... i am not talking about conspiracies.. i just really expect it also to pup up in other countries onkly maybe they didnt seen it as ebola... it also seems that we have reached the critical populational density of individuals in w africa so that "export" cases should start to arise randomly...
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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Hey Elver, great Thread and I agree with pretty much with you on all of your posts here on AFT!
Pheasant you are so right. Spot on! True Techno..You are right about the borders!...$$$$$..SICK THOUGH! My comment..A bad panic may set in before Ebola really starts to rear it's ugly head! Look at how people react a day before a snowstorm arrives! |
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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True Atheris and thanks for being here.
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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It would be pretty surprising if he didn't infect others. If it was winter time, the virus would also be able to stick to surfaces for several days. it's only going to get worse as time goes on.
Obama just said a couple weeks ago that the chances of Ebola in the U.S. is very low. Apparently that wasn't 100% accurate. Nor is the notion that it will "easily" be contained. Anyway, I thought they stopped most commercial flights out of Liberia, but since they haven't, all countries should be on the look out TODAY for cases as Liberia is still pumping them out from its airport. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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Technophobe I think you are correct about the why they will not close the borders. But I also think that the idea that we cannot have trade of goods during a quarantine is not. People do not have to travel to do business. Certainly we could quarantine ports in a way to move goods but not people. Difficult yes.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Difficult=expensive in the minds of the rich and powerful.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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Pheasant I think your correct their scared. Their scared for the obvious reasons and that they will be held accountable when its over.
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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Many European papers leading with the same headline that says it all
"First Ebola victim in America was sent home with antibiotics". |
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atheris
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giving antibiotics to a patient with viral disease only makes things much worse.... as the human body is blocked on several levels to react, and the viral disease can develop even faster and in a higher extent. Bad, bad option! and this will also not be a singular case....
if you see, in many cases the index cariers are usually very badly treated and that surely makes things worse as they can spread to more contacts...
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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By the time these bozos figure out quarantine we will be at the bend over and kiss our sweet posteriors goodbye time.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Indescribably stupid! That just means that there are even more contacts to trace. Their expence thank God.
I wonder, after they trace the idiot doctor for contact tracing, will they then fire him/her for stupidity, incompetence and lack of education. I shudder to try to list all the things (s)he got wrong. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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Edit I stand corrected Dr was told of his travel.
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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Amen!! I've been thinking this since the minute I heard he'd been sent home the first time. This guy is no idiot... He knows where's from & what's going on in his country!! Why didn't he speak up & say I'm worried this could be Ebola!?
Has anyone considered that since these patients often do irrational unsafe things that they could also lie? What if he's lying about when he got sick. All they have to do is avoid detection at the Liberian airport with their fever scanners. As someone else said on another thread when these people get scared they RUN. What if he had communication with the family here & it was preplanned, "if you get sick come here, America will save you."
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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It's been reported a few places about the EMTs being quarantined... does that mean he was taken by ambulance to the hospital? Was that the first time or the second time or both? Wouldn't that cut down on his number of contacts if that was he only method of travel in those days?
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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You cannot heap all the blame on the patient here. Some diseases affect the victim's behaviour. Doctors are trained to ask the right questions (for that very reason!).
Someone needs to be struck off here. Just handing out antibiotics as a cure-all/placebo is unforgiveable even without ebola. I believe the CDC circulated ebola information sheets. I am assuming all doctors can read. What a moron! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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You are right... but it's a fact that patients lie... didn't you ever watch House... LOL.
I know what you are saying but he had to have an inkling... a fear. Dr. Brantly & Mrs. Whitebol both said they prayed for malaria but knew it could be ebola.
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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They are saying he did inform of his travels. I have edited my remarks. And I am eating crow.
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technobrat2
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 12 2014 Location: NE Scotland Status: Offline Points: 160 |
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if you have found my missing unicorn stop taking the pills and consult professor sprout immediately
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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Thank you, but when I know I am wrong I will admit it.
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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Me too... but that does not mean that other patients don't or won't lie. They have ran in West Africa. It breaks my heart to hear them report that his sister said he told them he was from Liberia & they sent him home, tells me they were scared & really were trying to seek help.
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Pixie
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19668 |
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I've watched most of the coverage today. Yikes!! this was a major yuck up!! They are in damage control, all this over confidence may calm the masses but all of here know better. The sheer imcompetance . Here's a question to ponder... early symptoms of ebola and norovirus are almost the same excluding the hemorrhgic symtom. When norovirus outbreaks start this winter, what are the chances for misdiagnosed illness ?
Norovirus causes inflammation of the stomach or intestines or both. This is called acute gastroenteritis. The most common symptoms—
Other symptoms—
Symptoms of Ebola include
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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CDC Dr just on TV saying they have been stressing that one of the most important questions is travel history. Have they been to Africa if so where when accessing patients. Now that ebola has been in US it adds a different perspective.
Then again people who have been in Africa are traveling from affected regions into the US just like Dallas patient right now. It reminds me of a quote:Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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It gets worse Pixie. Any viral infection can cause the platelet levels in the blood to drop, causing bruising too.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Pixie
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19668 |
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If it spreads in any US community, The travel history will become mote. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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I would think it would tend to muddy the water.
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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Ebola could pop up in 20 more cities and they'd still not restrict travel from West Africa!!!
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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The public outcry will grow with the number of cases. They may be forced to. But, by then it wouldn't matter.
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