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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

sharp drop Ebola Liberia
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: October 28 2014 at 8:30am
http://reliefweb.int/report/liberia/huge-drop-ebola-bodies-across-liberian-capital-red-cross

Monrovia, Liberia | AFP | Tuesday 10/28/2014 - 12:30 GMT

The Red Cross said Tuesday the weekly total of Ebola victims collected by its body disposal teams around the Liberian capital is falling dramatically, indicating a sharp drop in the spread of the epidemic.


Fayah Tamba, head of the Liberian Red Cross, said his workers collected 117 bodies last week from Montserrado county, which includes Monrovia -- a drop of almost two-thirds from the high of 315 from September 15 to 21.

"I am sure you don't need a rocket scientist to tell you that the cases are dropping," he told private radio station Sky FM.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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It is good news when cases are going down. Hopefully that goes for the whole West Africa region.
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Pray that it fizzles out. It will give more time to prepare and enjoy life. With the way it has progressed it would be a concern that another outbreak could happen any time and it could become more easy to catch as it evolves.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2014 at 10:30am
Some want to say that these numbers are bad.   They are just to overwhelmed to keep counting cases.  (I don't support this argument the numbers are to significant for this).   Others say more sick people are staying home and not coming to treatment centers.(I think this is true to some extent)

What I want to know is...   is this just a seasonal shift?   Has the weather changed in Libera to help limit the spread?   We have seen drops in all three countries at one time only to latter see increases again.

Another consideration.... Libera is mostly Christian.    The other two countries are predominately Muslim.   Maybe cultural differences between the countries make the difference.
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Points: 1031 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 7laws Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2014 at 11:20am
These are very undeveloped countries. The difference between a Muslim and a Christian will make no difference. They both will be very uneducated and ignorant to how things work. After all, many of them will go to the witch doctor to get healed. I have seen first hand some if the weirdest things these guys do.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Anything Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2014 at 11:28am
Originally posted by Guest Guest wrote:

Some want to say that these numbers are bad.   They are just to overwhelmed to keep counting cases.  (I don't support this argument the numbers are to significant for this).   Others say more sick people are staying home and not coming to treatment centers.(I think this is true to some extent)

What I want to know is...   is this just a seasonal shift?   Has the weather changed in Libera to help limit the spread?   We have seen drops in all three countries at one time only to latter see increases again.

Another consideration.... Libera is mostly Christian.    The other two countries are predominately Muslim.   Maybe cultural differences between the countries make the difference.

Well, the rainy season has just ended. In tropical climates, the rainy season is when there are the most cases of flu. Don't see why that would also be true of Ebola, though.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2014 at 11:32am
Clear skies means hotter temps and more UV light?  Both would help to slow the spread.  

Something I have wondered about... it seems as though most people in that part of the world live outside most of the time.  In the west we like to stay inside under air conditioning.   This is one of the reasons I feel that we are more prone to an outbreak than even Western Africa is.
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According to Dr. Glick yesterday, cases are still doubling:

Dr. Glick doesn’t think people in the states should be worried about an epidemic, because there is a health care infrastructure. He thinks our focus should be on those in West Africa. “The cases are rising exponentially. If the world doesn’t throw everything we have at this situation there could be tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people die in the next month.”

http://wivb.com/2014/10/26/buffalo-doctor-monitoring-for-ebola/



The numbers are decreasing since the Spencer and Hickox fiasco.  Seems again that MSF might be rebelling on keeping the numbers, or they're making it look like they're actually making a difference.

I'll feel a little more reassured when the CDC and WHO announce it, since they're in the political arena with MSF on this.
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One more thing.  The report isn't accurate and it looks like we had the largest weekly increase to date in Liberia.  Seems to be exploding out of control:



Note: These reflect official confirmations only. The actual numbers are estimated to be three times as high.
Date Total Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Refs
Cases Deaths  % Daily
growth		 Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
24 Oct 2014 12,008 5,078 +4.1% 1,598 981 6,253 ≥2,704 4,017 1,341 [note 1][5][7][306]
19 Oct 2014 9,936 4,877 +1.2% 1,540 926 4,665 2,705 3,706 1,259 [note 2][9]
17 Oct 2014 9,693 4,811 +1.4% 1,501 886 4,607 2,689 3,560 1,227 [note 3][12][162][163][307]
12 Oct 2014 8,997 4,493 +1.4% 1,472 843 4,249 2,458 3,252 1,183 [note 4][189]
7 Oct 2014 8,386 3,988 +2.1% 1,350 778 4,076 2,316 2,937 885 [note 5][308][309]
5 Oct 2014 8,033 3,865 +1.7% 1,298 768 ≥3,924 ≥2,210 2,789 ≥879 ✓[note 6][20][308]
1 Oct 2014 7,492 3,439 +1.3% 1,199 739 ≥3,834 ≥2,069 2,437 623 ✓[note 7][310]
28 Sep 2014 7,192 3,286 +1.8% 1,157 710 ≥3,696 ≥1,998 2,317 570 ✓[note 8] [311][312][313]
25 Sep 2014 6,808 3,159 +1.7% 1,103 668 ≥3,564 ≥1,922 2,120 561 ✓[note 9] [314][315][316]
23 Sep 2014 6,574 3,043 +2.4% 1,074 648 ≥3,458 ≥1,830 2,021 557 ✓[note 10][317][318]
21 Sep 2014 6,263 2,900 +2.0% 1,022 635 ≥3,280 ≥1,707 1,940 550 ✓[note 11][319][320]
17 Sep 2014 5,762 2,746 +2.5% 965 623 ≥3,022 ≥1,578 1,753 537 ✓[note 12][321][322][323]
14 Sep 2014 5,339 2,586 +2.3% 942 601 ≥2,720 ≥1,461 1,655 516 ✓[note 13][324][325][326]
10 Sep 2014 4,848 2,376 +3.3% 899 568 2,415 1,307 1,509 493 ✓[note 14][327][328]
7 Sep 2014 4,391 2,177 +2.1% 861 557 2,081 1,137 1,424 476 ✓ [note 15][329][330]
3 Sep 2014 4,001 2,059 +2.4% 823 522 1,863 1,078 1,292 452 ✓[331]
31 Aug 2014 3,707 1,808 +2.9% 771 494 1,698 871 1,216 436 ✓[note 16] [268][332]
25 Aug 2014 3,071 1,553 +3.0% 648 430 1,378 694 1,026 422 ✓[333]
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Points: 47746 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2014 at 12:00pm
Like I said, MSF is playing games.   Liberia increased last week by 1600 cases and the new all time record for a weekly increase since the outbreak began.    Your guess is as good as mine why a group is being misleading, but it is what it is, as they say.

I'll point out something else that I've been talking about for a very long time, which is Guinea.  Guinea is a blood bath similar to Liberia and Sierra Leone, and they're significantly under-reporting.   If you look at their numbers closely, they ALWAYS show the same increase of 40 - 60 cases since the very beginning. Usually 40 - 50 cases.  Never more or never less.  It never changes, except for maybe once or twice.  They're clearly hand feeding 50 cases avg per week to be reported (They're bigger than Liberia and Sierra Leone combined and the epicenter of outbreak), or that's all they're capable of reporting, who knows, but those consistent numbers with never a change is probably not possible.

Last thing to keep in mind - The WHO is also stating the numbers are actually 3 times higher, which is probably the Guinea factor.    The reality is, we're near 40,000 cases.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2014 at 1:09pm
Albert if they are playing with the numbers....   I would expect to see a leveling or a slight decrease.    Some numbers show an exponential decrease.   Also I have heard there are available beds at treatment centers.  How would they fake that?

Could this last huge weekly jump simply be them catching up on numbers they missed earlier?

Also is it possible that the big jump we saw in late August early September been was the results of the rioting and subsequent quarantining of west point?   Maybe we are past that crisis and it is a bit easier to manage now.   Also is it possible that Libera is where it first got so bad that the people are finally taking it seriously?
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http://ebolainliberia.org/
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Hello guest, let's hope they're catching up on the back numbers for the last couple of weeks.  We don't want to see weeks of 2000 + like this (or 5 days in this case).  That would probably mean this is way out of control, and those estimates of 10,000 a week may be on track.   A pretty grim deal.  Let's hope they were backlogged, but highly doubtful.  We're most likely going to see a couple thousand a week with surges of exponential growth, 4' & 5's, but again, that's just a guess.  Not even sure how they can track it.   It's still contained in W. Africa, at the moment. 


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Points: 7205 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2014 at 3:27pm
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/health-ebola-liberia-envoy-idINKBN0IH29U20141028?rpc=401

Sounds like quicker testing is helping.
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Could see a larger jump in the next few days.  The WHO predicted 20,000 by November and they probably want to hit that number.   Shocked   
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http://ebolainliberia.org/ There are claims that the Liberian government wants to limit economic damage and for that reason is giving a "positive view" of the situation. If that would be the case it will not work for long. 

Even if the situation does slowly get better in West Africa there still remains a danger of further spread outside the region. 
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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