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h5n1 KILLS another in Egypt |
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Kilt2 
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 Topic: h5n1 KILLS another in EgyptPosted: December 05 2014 at 12:07pm |
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The Egyptian Flu?
Bird flu: Egyptian man dies of H5N1 virusAnother Egyptian has died of H5N1 bird flu, bringing the total number of deaths in Egypt from the virus to seven this year out of 14 identified ... |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 05 2014 at 12:08pm |
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The 26-year-old man, who worked with birds and came to hospital suffering from a fever, cough and a shortage of breath, died in the province of Minya, south of Cairo, where several other cases have occurred, the ministry said in a statement. On Monday, the ministry said three people had died in the last week. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), from 2003 through until October 2, 2014, there have been 668 laboratory-confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection officially reported from 16 countries. Of these cases, 393 have died. The WHO warns that whenever bird flu viruses are circulating in poultry, there is a risk of sporadic infections or small clusters of human cases - especially in people exposed to infected birds or contaminated environments. Human cases of H5N1 are rare, however, and the virus does not currently appear to transmit easily from person to person. Egypt's H5N1 cases have largely been found in poor rural areas in the south, where villagers, particularly women, tend to keep and slaughter poultry in the home. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 11 2014 at 3:34pm |
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The News International Egyptian woman dies of H5N1 bird flu, total now 8 -Health MinistryEgypt's H5N1 cases have largely been found in poor rural areas in the south, where villagers, particularly women, tend to keep and slaughter ... |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 11 2014 at 3:35pm |
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The H5N1 virus only has one more genetic tweak to make and its a human flu.
This thing is close. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 11 2014 at 3:36pm |
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The 33-year-old woman died after being admitted to a hospital in the southern province of Sohag, the ministry said in a statement. The latest confirmed case, also from Sohag, is a 16-month old girl who has been receiving treatment at a hospital since December 7, according to the statement. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), from 2003 through October 2, 2014, there have been 668 laboratory-confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection officially reported from 16 countries. Of these cases, 393 have died. WHO has warned that whenever bird flu viruses are circulating in poultry, there is a risk of sporadic infections or small clusters of human cases, especially in people exposed to infected birds or contaminated environments. Human cases of H5N1 are rare. Egypt's H5N1 cases have largely been found in poor rural areas in the south, where villagers, particularly women, tend to keep and slaughter poultry in the home. (Reporting By Omar Fahmy and Mahmoud Mourad; Editing by Toni Reinhold) http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/11/health-birdflu-egypt-idUSL6N0TV4OR20141211 |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Posted: December 13 2014 at 1:53am |
In that last link, it states that a second teacher is receiving treatment for H5N1. If true, it definitely suggests H2H transmission.
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 13 2014 at 5:35am |
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we will see H2H - but they are blind clusters - they get longer and longer but stop
when the cluster get 100 people long the pandemic will begin in a matter of days when there is a cluster 100 people long - shut the gates its coming
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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jacksdad
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Posted: December 13 2014 at 7:10pm |
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Nothing I'm seeing suggests efficient H2H, but I agree with Kilt - when (or if) it ever happens with H5N1 we'll know pretty quickly when the cluster doesn't dead end like we've always seen before. Personally, I'm beginning to think that H5N1 is not the pandemic candidate we all thought it was, and another strain will get there first. H7N9 is already making it's presence felt in China again. And who knows - maybe H5N1 is just collecting the genes that another strain needs to make the H2H jump by reassorting with it in a common host.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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carbon20
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Posted: December 14 2014 at 3:30am |
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when a pandemic hits it will be right out of left field on that you can depend......
i watch every new "out break" with interest ,not sure when or where or how , but one day maybe not in my lifetime (which i hope is a few more years yet) lol one day we will wake up and say " s..t where did that come from"..... have a great Christmas all , see you same bat channel soon.......
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Posted: December 14 2014 at 6:29am |
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13th human case in a month reported in Egypt, a 3 year old boy.
http://outbreaknewstoday.com/egypt-reports-13th-human-h5n1-avian-flu-case-in-a-month-99162/
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Posted: December 14 2014 at 11:09am |
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I've googled for H5N1 'spikes', and not found much. There may well have been more human infections in as short a space of time as we're seeing in a relatively small region of Egypt, but those that I've been able to find are less dramatic. Given that there have been less than 700 recorded human cases in the 11 years since H5N1 was first identified, the 13 cases are getting on for alarming.
It would be good to know if the two infected teachers had contact with poultry, if they taught in the same school, if they were related and lived in the same house etc. I've been unable to find any information about these questions. If they were unrelated and taught in the same school, that would suggest H2H transmission to this observer.
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jacksdad
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Posted: December 14 2014 at 12:29pm |
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Egypt has historically been one of the countries hit pretty hard by H5N1, but 13 in a month does seem significant. Do we have a number on the CFR? Egypt's has typically run lower than other countries like Indonesia if I remember rightly (it seems like forever since we talked about flu...). They had a mortality rate of about 50% if memory serves, as opposed to 80% in other outbreaks. A change there might indicate that we're seeing something different.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 14 2014 at 3:01pm |
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Every time - every single time - a human gets infected the virus mutates to humanity one little bit more.
The H5N1 virus only needs one more gene change and its a human virus Every single time a human is infected - it could make that change and explode all around the world and kill all those infected - about 25% or 30% of the human population of this planet. Every time I read another person is infected I hold my breath. The enemy is at the gate. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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EdwinSm,
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 1:56am |
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According to calculation on the published WHO figures the case fatality rate is 59% (covering 2003-2nd October 2014).
Recent rates have been: year cases deaths CFR 2010 48 24 50% 2011 62 34 55% 2012 32 20 63% 2013 39 25 64% 2014 19 8 42% (until 2.10.2014 before the Egyptian spike in cases) For the above time period WHO has recorded Egypt having 177 cases and 63 deaths = 36% CFR. |
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carbon20
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 3:54am |
Egypt reports 13th human H5N1 avian flu case in a monthPosted by Robert Herriman on December 14, 2014 // Leave Your CommentThe number of human H5N1 avian influenza (AI) cases continue their spike in Egypt as health ministry officialsadvise of the 17th case of the year in three year old child from Sohag Governorate, according to a Dostor.org report (computer translated).  H5N1 avian influenza This is the 13th H5N1 infection reported out of Egypt in less than a month. Eight fatalities have been reported. This is the most cases and deaths due to H5N1 AI in Egypt since 2011 when the north African country reported 39 cases and 15 deaths. Since 2003, there has been nearly 700 human H5N1 AI cases reported with only Indonesia reporting more cases than Egypt. H5N1 infection in humans can cause severe disease and has a high mortality rate. Almost all cases of H5N1 infection in people have been associated with close contact with infected live or dead birds, or H5N1-contaminated environments. The symptoms of H5N1 infection may include fever (often high fever, > 38°C) and malaise, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches. Other early symptoms may include abdominal pain, chest pain and diarrhoea. Theinfection may progress quickly to severe respiratory illness (for example, difficulty breathing or shortness of breath, pneumonia, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and neurologic changes (altered mental status or seizures).
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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jacksdad
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 7:56am |
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Eight fatalities in a group of fifteen is 53% - lower than they've seen in recent years.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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carbon20
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 2:23pm |
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but 13 in a month JD.....
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 4:42pm |
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and thats with medical attention - that will not be for everyone in a pandemic
its will be closer to 100% WTSHTF
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 4:44pm |
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the point is when a flu virus infects a single human cell it mutates by drift and that one cell will erupt and shed 100,000 new viruses - all mutants
a human with flu has thousands of cells infected with the virus all it takes is for one of the viruses to be 100% human capable and we have the fan being hit just one gene needs tweaking 13 people a month is very very bad this thing is about to break loose
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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jacksdad
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 5:21pm |
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Yep - no argument there, carbon. Thirteen is a significant number of cases in a month.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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EdwinSm,
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Posted: December 15 2014 at 10:17pm |
Significant, but not very lucky. They only reported 4 cases in the first 10 months of the year, so this is something of a breakout. However, it is still lower than the 55 cases and 45 deaths Egypt had in 2006. |
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jacksdad
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Posted: December 16 2014 at 7:43am |
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I wonder if it's tied to a wider outbreak in poultry? That might explain what's driving it.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 16 2014 at 4:35pm |
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Every single person brings us closer
Egypt reports 13th human H5N1 avian flu case in a monthThe number of human H5N1 avian influenza (AI) cases continue their spike in Egypt as health ministry officials advise of the 17th case of the year in three year ... |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Posted: December 17 2014 at 10:34am |
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Another H5N1 death in Egypt today.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2877967/Ninth-Egyptian-dies-H5N1-bird-flu--Health-Ministry.html
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Kilt2
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Posted: December 17 2014 at 3:50pm |
Ninth Egyptian dies of H5N1 bird flu: Health MinistryCAIRO (Reuters) - A 20-year-old Egyptian woman died from bird flu on Wednesday, the ninth death in the country from the virus out of 18 ... |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2 wrote: