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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Ebola is back - Epidemic Coming?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 15 2015 at 3:28am
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/liberia-confirms-new-ebola-case-as-outbreak-spreads-781553

Monrovia:  A Liberian woman has died of Ebola in a hospital in Monrovia shortly after being admitted, becoming the sixth confirmed case and second death since the virus resurfaced last month, a senior medical official said on Tuesday.

The victim, Kebbeh Kollie, lived near the capital, Monrovia. She was the sister of Cassius Kollie, one of five Ebola cases discovered in neighbouring Margibi County, where the disease re-emerged after a seven-week lull.

Her detection raised fears that the infection may be spreading in the Montserrado County area of Liberia, which includes the capital.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2015 at 3:10am
Has Ebola mutated?

http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-07-ebola-survivor-source-liberian-outbreak.html

The World Health Organization (WHO) said the genetic sequence of the virus sampled from the 17-year-old victim at the centre of the first cases for three months did not match variants circulating in neighbouring Guinea or Sierra Leone.

"The origin of the cluster of cases remains under investigation," the agency said in it latest situation report on an epidemic that has killed more than 11,250 people in the three countries.

"Preliminary evidence from genomic sequencing strongly suggests that the most likely origin of transmission is a re-emergence of the virus from a survivor within Liberia."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 17 2015 at 6:36am
http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/Ebola-Toll-Exceeds-11250-in-West-Africa-WHO/2015/07/17/article2925715.ece

Published: 17th July 2015 05:32 PM - India - Indian Express

GENEVA: The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said the number of people killed by Ebola in West Africa has exceeded 11,250.

A total of 27,643 cases of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported since the outbreak of the disease, TASS reported on Friday.

The maximum number of Ebola-related deaths has been registered in Liberia (4,806 deaths and 10,666 total cases) in the country while the average death rate is 50 percent.

comment: This is not the characteristic death rate for Ebola. Even last year in West Africa it rose to 70%.

http://www.myfoxla.com/story/26781168/world-health-organization-ebola-death-rate-rises-to-70-percent


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http://www.msf.org/article/ebola-crisis-update-17-july-2015

  • Liberia: After being declared Ebola-free on 9 May, six (6) new cases have been confirmed since the re-emergence of the virus at the end of June.
  • Guinea: 13 confirmed cases in the country in the week to 12 July in three main hotspots (Forecariah, Boké/Fria, Conakry)
  • Sierra Leone: 14 confirmed cases in the country in the week to 12 July in three main hotspots (Freetown, Port Loko, Kambia).
Though Ebola has faded from the news headlines, the epidemic in West Africa continues to claim lives today. Infection rates are down from the peak of the crisis last year and progress has been made in the fight against Ebola. However, around 30 people still become infected each week in Sierra Leone and Guinea – a number that would be considered a major disaster under normal circumstances – and the outbreak has recently re-emerged in Liberia.  Ongoing infections in the capitals Freetown and Conakry, and deaths from Ebola still found too late in the community, remain of high concern.

Going from hundreds of cases to 30 per week took considerable time and massive resources, yet getting from 30 to zero requires the most meticulous, difficult work of all - we cannot lose focus now and must guard against complacency until the entire region is declared Ebola free.

comment: West Africa has not stopped Ebola and it is still killing people there. It is a brooding problem that still could mutate or increase rapidly without notice.  A primary concern is the unreported cases and deaths as well as recent transmissions from unknown sources.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2015 at 1:38pm
http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/health-ebola-liberia-idINKCN0PU1FF20150720

The last four cases of Ebola in Liberia were discharged from a treatment clinic in the capital of Monrovia on Monday, meaning there were no more confirmed carriers of the deadly virus in the West African country.

The group of four, released from the ELWA treatment unit to cheers and applause, were part of new wave of Ebola infections in Margibi County just outside Monrovia discovered in late June.

Two other confirmed cases have since died, including the sister of one of the released patients.

"The (Ebola treatment unit) is not a death camp; you can come here and survive," said Tolbert Nyenswah, head of Liberia's Ebola response. "This is what we can demonstrate even if Ebola comes back."

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http://humanitariannews.org/20150719/sierra-leone-ebola-bulletin-july-2015

We can put away the party hats now. Ebola is still in West Africa

Sierra Leone: Ebola Bulletin July 2015

19 July, 2015 - 02:51

Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Country: Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Border surveillance is a key component in the people's fight to get to zero.

  • OCHA called upon to take a greater role in field coordination, reporting and information management in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

  • Six new confirmed cases reported in Liberia, whose transmission chain is still under investigation.

  • Donors have pledged $3.4 Billion for Ebola Recovery Plan, at the International Ebola Recovery Conference in New York

KEY FIGURES FOR EBOLA COUNTRIES

Population in the three countries 20,8 million

Confirmed cases 27,573

Deaths 11,246

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http://apps.who.int/ebola/ebola-situation-reports

  • There were 26 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in the week to 19 July: 22 in Guinea and 4 in Sierra Leone. Liberia reported no new cases. For the second consecutive week more than half of all cases were reported from the capitals of Guinea and Sierra Leone, Conakry and...
  • There were 30 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in the week to 12 July: 13 in Guinea, 3 in Liberia, and 14 in Sierra Leone. Although the total number of confirmed cases is the same as the previous week, there has been a shift in the foci of transmission. For the first...
  • There were 30 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in the week to 5 July: 18 in Guinea, 3 in Liberia, and 9 in Sierra Leone. Although this is the highest weekly total since mid-May, improvements to case investigation and contact tracing, together with enhanced incentives to...

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The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is not over. It has been difficult to say the least to get more information. Here is the news at least as reported by CDC and WHO. It is certainly not the nightmare it was last year, but the Ebola situation here could flare up at anytime.



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http://www.greenfieldreporter.com/view/story/baf9b28ab2ec4e9a87b6d66dc10a7d27/AF--Ebola-West-Africa

Ebola is still in Sierra Leone. While this is spun to project the country will be clear that is the same story that was told two months ago. All cases in the country are not detected. Once recent study showed that 20% of the cases are missed and there could still have been cases through the period when it was said there was none.

Why are we so concerned about Ebola? Is it a total certainty it will not reach the U.S. and spread?  Ebola is a very contagious and high fatality disease. It can reach a 70% or more fatality rate and if it did become more airborne it would be a problem in the U.S. It can be spread by sneezing and droplets. While it may not meet the precise definition for an "airborne bio-weapon" it can be spread through the air.

The best defense if a good offense and an aggressive and daily monitoring of this disease in West Africa as well as the U.S.  The deaths of many West Africans were terrible and we should not insulate ourselves in Western arrogance as so many have died.

excerpt...

FREETOWN, Sierra Leone — Sierra Leone has only four recorded cases of Ebola, the West African nation's head of Ebola said Thursday, adding that he is hopeful the countdown to zero can soon begin.

Two of the cases have proven negative after treatments, and the other two, in the north Tonkolili district, are in treatment, said National Emergency Response Center chief Alfred Palo Conteh.

"The end of this virus is in sight," he said.

comment: I do not think an end is in sight. Perhaps lulls and temporary reports of no cases, but with the current sanitation issues and few doctors it is going to continue to fester and remain in West Africa.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2015 at 11:13am
http://world-finance.net/2015/08/12/ebola-liberia-deaths-far-higher-than-reported-as-officials-downplay-epidemic/

The true death toll from the Ebola epidemic is being masked by chaotic data collection and people’s reluctance to admit that their loved ones had the virus, according to one of west Africa’s most celebrated film-makers.

Sorious Samura, who has just returned from making a documentary on the crisis in Liberia, said it is very clear on the ground that the true number of dead is far higher than the official figures being reported by the World Health Organisation.

Liberia accounts for more than half of all the official Ebola deaths, with a total of 2,458. Overall, the number of dead across Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea has exceeded 4,500.

Samura, a television journalist originally from Sierra Leone, said the Liberian authorities appeared to be deliberately downplaying the true number of cases, for fear of increasing alarm in the west African country.

“People are dying in greater numbers than we know, according to MSF [Médecins sans Frontières] and WHO officials. Certain departments are refusing to give them the figures – because the lower it is, the more peace of mind they can give people. The truth is that it is still not under control.”

comment: It's not over by a long shot.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2015 at 10:49am
What is the real news about Ebola? It is a problem and those in the health industry and world health organizations are bracing for another serious outbreak.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2015/08/ebola-cases-stay-single-digits-all-pose-high-risks

The number of new Ebola cases in West Africa's outbreak region stayed in the single digits last week, but two of the infections involved high-risk health-setting exposures, which has medical officials bracing for more cases, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today.

A total of three lab-confirmed Ebola illnesses were reported last week, up slightly from the two reported the previous week. Two were from Guinea and one from Sierra Leone. No new cases have been reported from Liberia since the middle of July, and as of Aug 3, the monitoring period has ended for all contacts there.

The WHO added that the total for the previous week has been revised upward from two the three, after one retrospective case from Sierra Leone's Tonkolili district were added to that country's tally.

Overall, the number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases in the three most affected countries stands at 27,929, including 11,283 deaths, according to the WHO. No new healthcare worker infections were reported for the second week in a row, keeping that total at 880, including 512 deaths.

New case details

Adding to concerns about further transmission, only one of the three cases reported last week—a patient from Guinea—involved a registered contact, the WHO said. However, it added that the patient was lost to follow-up and could have triggered many high-risk contacts in several health centers in Conakry, the country's capital, since the individual was seen at several health facilities while symptomatic and before the disease was confirmed. Several of the contacts are healthcare workers.

Guinea's other case was found after a 26-year-old woman in Forecariah district died in the community, raising fears of an undetected transmission chain in one of the country's recent Ebola hot spots. Responders suspect that her illness and death are linked to a family member's unsafe burial several weeks ago.

Sierra Leone's latest case-patient, from Freetown, is an 8-month old girl who got sick on Aug 4 and was admitted to the hospital 2 days later. The WHO said the illness is linked to a known transmission chain in Western Urban Area and that so far 29 of her high-risk contacts have been identified, including 24 in voluntary quarantine.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2015 at 2:49pm
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http://www.chinapost.com.tw/international/africa/2015/09/01/444728/New-Ebola.htm
September 1, 2015

FREETOWN, Sierra Leone--Health officials in Sierra Leone on Sunday confirmed an Ebola death less than a week after the country's last known patient was discharged from a hospital.

Samples from the body of a 67-year-old woman who died recently in Kambia district in the country's north came back positive for the deadly disease, said chief medical officer Dr. Brima Kargbo.

Last Monday, the last known Ebola patient was released from a hospital in Sierra Leone, a milestone that allowed the West African nation to begin a 42-day countdown toward being declared free of Ebola transmission.

comment: Ebola is not gone from West Africa or Sierra Leone. Not all Ebola cases are reported or recorded and it is hard to know during these "no Ebola periods" how many people are either dying are still infected.

It's not over.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2015 at 9:27am
Note: for a period after my Medclinician handle was in limbo - I began posting as Medclinician2013. I have my original handle and my actual post number is well over 10,000. This is Ebola thing will be a continuing problem in West Africa.

One scary item is that it could be used as a weapon. No doubt there are already versions of this and not only with the Western nations but possible unstable third world countries. While not "airborne" IN the classic sense, it can be spread by coughing and droplets.

If there is a large enough outbreak in West Africa it could become Pandemic. Did someone makes this virus to start with as an experiment?  It is very possible.

For now we won't get into Pandemic, but another epidemic is likely - not if - but when.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2015 at 8:49am
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2015/09/guinea-reports-ebola-free-week-sierra-leone-has-5-cases

In Sierra Leone, new cases have been detected in two areas: Kambia district, which is battling a cluster of cases, and Bombali district, where a 16-year-old girl's Ebola death triggered the deployment of a rapid response team.

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