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Dutch Josh HELP! |
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 Topic: Dutch Josh HELP!Posted: October 21 2015 at 3:32pm |
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Dutch Josh, I must go to San Francisco from Dec 19 - Dec 24 2015. I would like to know what the chances are we will be in an earth quake?
Am I better off in a large hotel or a small hotel? Right now I am in a huge hotel do I need to re-think that ? Where do I go to find out what to do if the quake hits while I am there. I do not live in quake country as you can tell...Colorado is not quake free but the big one's I have been in here are 4.1 or less. Thanks in advance for any help!!! |
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Medclinician
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Posted: October 21 2015 at 3:46pm |
FluMom - look at what I posted on the Earthquake thread. I put up one map that is real time and only hours old. If it reads correctly it displayed 998-1000 earthquakes. Whatever the "odds" there has been a lot of activity. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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onefluover
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Posted: October 21 2015 at 5:51pm |
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It's not for Frisco but pretty much the same differance.
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2015/10/20/nasa-gives-99-percent-probability-of-5-0-earthquake-in-la/ |
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"And then there were none."
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 21 2015 at 11:16pm |
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FluMom, thanks for asking I hope I can give some usefull advice. (Eventhough I do have much less knowledge than forummembers that live in the area-they will be able to give a much better answer !)
There is more danger for an earthquake in California than in Colorado. But still that risk is limited. If I would go to SF in that timeframe I would do the following: 1. I believe that major earthquakes might be events with preludes. When there is increasing seismic activity that is abnormal for the region you need to take extra care. 2. When you are in good health, able to climb mountains etc it is a different story then when you are in a wheelchair, blind etc. FluMom, you're health is most likely in between those extremes. 3. When you ask me such a question you have some fear. There is nothing wrong with fear, it makes us pay more attention, let us take extra care-in the end it may save us our live. One of the reasons I am on this forum is because of my fear for illness. 4. When you are able to get a small hotelroom-single layer-not a tall building and the bed close to an exit you may feel most safe. If there would be a major earthquake you run most risk while sleeping. When your building would collapse (and the chances of that happening during your stay proberbly less than 1%) while you are in bed the less material on top of you the better. 5. Also important is to get to know the area were you stay and go the best you can. Is there high ground nearby in case of a tsunami (also very small chance) ? How do you get out of the area when you want to ? Wich roads may stay open ? (Proberbly Eastside of SF is better than when you have to cross the whole city when the roads may be blocked or civil unrest). 6. You proberbly going to visit people you know and trust (enough to visit). Tell them what you are afraid of. If they respect you they should respect your emotions. They can give you advice, they may have plans themselves living in an area with more earthquake risk. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: October 21 2015 at 11:38pm |
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A calculation. NASA claim 99% risk of a M5 coming 30 months=900 days. Since an eartquake is a short event, a few minutes is long, one could calculate the risk per minute, but to make things easier I do it per day. !00:900=0,111% per day during that period. You run that risk 5 days that makes you 0,555% vulnarable in statistics.
A magnitude 5 can do a lot of damage but when you are staying in a small (light material) hotelroom ground floor with nothing on top of that that hotelroom proberbly will survive. If there is gas, water, electricity, you might want to know how to control that (being able to stop it). A lot of the damage in 1906 was the result of fires after the quake. Know yourself. When you are in panic it might be not such a good idea to start driving a car. Get yourself under control before you put yourself in (further) risks. I hope I give you some ideas ? Other forummembers proberbly will be able to tell you more. (I live in the Netherlands. When we had a M 5.8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Roermond_earthquake I learned from that the following morning. It did not even wake me up. I did experience smaller earthquakes (awake) M4 etc. I did find them "interesting". )To keep damage limited in SF most buildings will be able to deal with smaller quakes that happen there all the time. There is a chance for California of a larger event. If you have much fear for such a possibility (just like some people have extreme fear of flying) face that. In that case the most wise thingh to do in my opinion would (in that case) not to go to areas with larger earthquake risks.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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KiwiMum
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Posted: October 22 2015 at 1:34pm |
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Hi Flumom,
As you know I live in an active earthquake zone so have a few tips for you. 1. Firstly remember that earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do. In Christchurch, lots of people died because as the big earthquake began, they ran outside and were killed by falling masonry. What you should do is drop, cover and hold. In other words, you drop to the ground, scramble under a chair or table (or just cover your neck and shoulders with your hands if there is no cover) and hold on to your cover so that the shaking doesn't send you one way and the table the other way. 2. As soon as the shaking stops, get out. And stay out. Aftershocks will follow thick and fast. 3. If you are near the coast then get up away from ground level. In Wellington at the moment they are working on a plan to publicly mark certain buildings in the city centre as safe tsunami buildings. These will be earthquake strengthened buildings that the public can swarm into and climb to the upper storeys to escape a tsunami. So look to go into an office block if need be. Obviously pick one that doesn't look like it's going to collapse. 4. The earthquakes here have changed peoples behaviour. Surveys have shown that people are wearing pyjamas to bed now in case they have to run out in the night into the street. I'd recommend that you always have a pair of sturdy shoes by the bed - in case of broken glass. Sleep with the curtains closed in case of exploding windows during a quake - certainly our window panes were flexing and pinging although they didn't actually implode. Personally I always have a tiny LED torch in my handbag - in case I get trapped inside a collapsed building, and I sleep with a torch under my pillow because if it's on the bedside table and an earthquake happens it can get flung across the room. After any sizeable earthquake the power seems to go out so you need a torch. I'm sure you'll be fine. Survival is 90% attitude and 10% luck. Be prepared. If a quake happens, don't panic. Here in NZ last week we did a national earthquake drill in which 1.36 million Kiwis took part (not bad for a population of 4 million). It was the largest ever earthquake drill worldwide. It's good for focussing the mind.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Posted: October 22 2015 at 2:31pm |
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Thanks Dutch, Kiwi, One, Med. To be honest I am taking my son to San Fran to have an operation by a specialist Doc. It is fast and furious Dec 19 - 24. I will take all of your advice to heart. I will have several flash lights small but bright.
I will have bottle water in the room because I will need it for my son. I think I will take my "large Fanny pack" with some basic supplies gloves, Para cord, protein bars, light, just in case. I already know from the movie San Andreas that the high points are the big tower on the hill and Knob hill but if can't make it will get as high as we can in a more stable building if we can. I will see if there are earthquake safe buildings near. I will not worry as much if I feel a little prepped for a quake. God has a plan for all of us but like my mom says "If you do your best then you should not feel guilty." Thanks guys you make me feel better. |
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KiwiMum
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Posted: October 22 2015 at 7:34pm |
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When the earthquakes struck here, there were plenty of surgeries happening and all of them continued just fine once the hard shaking had stopped. There were reports of the operating staff lying across the patient to keep them on the table and then once the emergency lighting had kicked in, finishing the operation just fine.
Just remember the advice about not running outside asap. I can tell you from personal experience that the urge to run out (from the adrenalin kicking in with your fight or flight response) is almost overwhelming. But don't do it. 185 people died on the streets of Christchurch in 2011 in one earthquake. Here's a clip of amazing footage taken from a security camera showing a man walking down the street, as the earthquake hits, he ducks into the doorway of a large brick building he's walking past, the whole front of it collapses and then he steps out and continues down the pavement. Remember that exterior walls of a building generally fall outwards. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duoS7hwJlrU
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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KiwiMum
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Posted: October 22 2015 at 7:41pm |
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One thing I never do now is park in multi storied car parks. One of them collapsed and pancaked 5 layers, and when rescuers finally got in there, by some miracle no one had been in the building at the time, even though it was full of cars. I also don't stop in the car under a bridge in traffic. Call me paranoid but I can't help it.
After that earthquake that you see in that clip, the ground kept moving for about 15 minutes, just rising and falling like a ship. My husband was in the city centre at the time but thankfully outside. The cell phone system stopped working within a couple of minutes but you could still send texts for an hour or so, so text rather than try to call.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Posted: October 22 2015 at 9:11pm |
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I will not be driving a car. We will be taking cabs to where we need to go. I investigated the Hotel we are staying in and it survived the 89 quake. It was built to survive a quake lol if that is possible depending on how big the quake is.
I plan on staying on a lower floor and know how to get out and where high ground is and how to get there on foot. I will not go out because I realize that falling debris will be VERY dangerous. I always plan and make sure my son plans, shoes at our bed, purse/pack by the bed with my shoes. So I can grab and go where I need to go. I do this at every hotel I stay in just in case of fire or any other disaster. Preppers are just crazy that way. |
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hachiban08
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Posted: October 22 2015 at 10:09pm |
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I don't even have the option of parking in a ground level part as my school only has multilevel parking for students. The library of my school got partial damage from last year's 5.1 eq. They are still repairing it.
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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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hachiban08
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Posted: October 22 2015 at 10:14pm |
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FluMom, San Francisco is a lot more retrofitted to survive earthquakes than Los Angeles is. If the Puente Hills fault line that caused the earthquake last year was worse, they estimate 3,000 to 18,000 deaths in the L.A. area (mostly in the city).
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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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KiwiMum
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Posted: October 27 2015 at 8:06pm |
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Flumom, I've just watched San Andreas this afternoon with my kids. Don't use that as your earthquake model as it's just too scary - although I did see plenty of good drop, cover and hold on drill which was correct and lots of people being killed by falling masonary, which is also likely. The film literally showed the city disintegrating in the most extreme way. You'd have to be extremely unlucky to be there during a 9.6 quake. I'm sure you'll be fine.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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arirish
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Posted: October 29 2015 at 7:29am |
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Flumom- We will be in the bay area a few days after you. We're flying out and won't be able to take our BOBs so I'm planning to send at least one to the hotel via UPS! I'll put it in the rental car as soon as we get there. It's a little expensive but worth the peace of mind!
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Buy more ammo!
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Posted: October 29 2015 at 4:26pm |
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I am taking a large "fanny pack" filled with gloves, masks, water, protein bars, map, a fire starter, and 2 - 55 gal trash bags for rain, 1 life straw and some Para cord. Just the basics in case we survive an earthquake and have to get out of San Fran.
I just hope a quake does not happen between the 23 and 5:00 on the 24. My son's operation is on the 23rd and we leave the next day! Will love to see San Fran for the 1st time but will not be going back to Calif. if I make it out ok this time. |
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arirish
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Posted: October 29 2015 at 7:41pm |
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You can go a long way on protein bars and trail mix. Maybe some chocolate bars! I love the bay area! I used to live on the Russian river North of there! I was on the Bohemian Highway near Camp Meeker! Good luke and stay safe! We'll all be thinking of you and your son!
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Buy more ammo!
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: October 29 2015 at 9:45pm |
KiwiMum, this is the best essay on earthquake preparation that I've ever read (and I am US Gov't trained in this stuff!!) Having worked a bit with the Wool Research Organization of New Zealand (WRONZ) years back, I came to know a few folks in your land and was heartbroken by your earthquake events. Your descriptions of what happened when folks ran outside are very true, "drop and cover" is the policy. I have an LED torch within 1/2 meter of my right hand as I type this in bed....so very important! A quick trip out to SF will be safe, FluMom, as big earthquakes provide lots of warnings. Interestingly, some of the warnings included increased wild bird singing, agitation by farm animals and pets, etc. They are able to pick up on the deep surface, low frequency rumblings of an earthquake fault where we puny humans cannot. You all mean a great deal to me, be safe! Best, Chuck |
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: October 30 2015 at 2:17pm |
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Thanks Chuck, I agree KiwiMum gave great advice. I will have a flashlight in my pack as well.
You mean a lot to us too Chuck. We are all a band of great friends! |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: December 24 2015 at 10:16pm |
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FluMom I hope everything went well for you and your son ? (Good recovery for him !)
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Posted: December 25 2015 at 12:26pm |
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God Love you Dutch Josh, you remembered! Yes, my son's operation went well the Doc told me he really needed the operation. He is a little uncomfortable but not in pain. Thank you for caring!
There were 3 "kids" 19 - 22 that had the same operation that same day. If you know anyone that has a Pilonidal Abscess problem they need to go to Dr. Jeffrey Sternberg in San Francisco he is the best. He had one kid that had 3 operations before this one and none of them worked. Poor kid had an open wound from the last of the three and Dr. Sternberg could still do the Bascom Cleft Lift which Sternberg has improved even more. No earthquake that we could feel I should say...thank God! We saw all the sights went on an 8 hour private tour by a great tour company. All I can say is you better have LOTS of money to live in San Francisco not a place for normal people. Nice place to visit but would not want to live there! MERRY CHRISTMAS! |
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hachiban08
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Posted: December 25 2015 at 1:26pm |
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My sister lives in S.F. and even the bad areas are pricy. I love to visit (go quite often), but I grew up in ag land and would rather remain a smallish town person than a city person (sister is the opposite, she wants to live in L.A. ) I personally loathe L.A. even though I live 25 miles from there. Glad you enjoyed yourself, FluMom :)
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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Jen147
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Posted: December 25 2015 at 9:42pm |
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Nice update, Thank You FluMom.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: December 25 2015 at 10:43pm |
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Good to hear you made the best of your visit to SF FluMom. I remember from long ago, snow is white...last night here in the Netherlands was warmer than an average summer night. So no snow here !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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KiwiMum
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Posted: December 27 2015 at 12:01pm |
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I'm glad it all went well Flumom. Operations are stressful enough without the threat of a huge earthquake hanging over you. I hope your son recovers well. My surgeon told me to take large quantities of Vit C after my leg op earlier this year. I took 1g four times a day for 2 weeks. I recovered very well and within 6 weeks my leg was as good as new. Happy New Year to you both.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Posted: December 27 2015 at 1:27pm |
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Thanks guys, son is doing really well and I am still getting over the "stress" of it all. Sleep is really nice! I love the fact I am on a 2 week vacation time to recover.
Happy New Year to all of you! |
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: December 27 2015 at 2:56pm |
So glad to hear!! Regarding fear of nature....things can happen at anytime. Look at the events spurred by this season's El Niño! DALLAS (Reuters) - Four people died in a storm-related incident in Texas near where a tornado touched down on Saturday, bringing the death toll from tornadoes and flooding this week in the southern United States to 22, according to officials and local media. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: December 28 2015 at 8:15pm |
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DrPH, that is why I enjoy every day we never know when it is our time to go!
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FluMom wrote: