Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Should Zika be declared a Pandemic? |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Posted: February 03 2016 at 4:28am |
I know Med has a current thread about this, and he's done a fantastic
job putting this thing on the map as of a few months ago, but I want to
get to the quick point on this thread.
I'm curious to people's thought on if Zika should be declared a pandemic. I believe JD and others think it's not, and I tend to agree with Fauci that it is. Simply, it's in over 24 countries and spreading rapidly. The death rate appears to be around 2%, and this doesn't even factor the short life expectancy with Microcephaly, nor the neurological disorder in adults. It's also spread by human-to-human transmission, along with the mosquito, with a sum total of the two as being fairly efficient transmission. Here is a thread that talks about the estimated 2% fatality rate and Fauci claiming it is currently a pandemic. The WHO says it could become an "explosive pandemic". I believe it has already most likely met all criteria of a pandemic. Please feel free to disagree with me! I just want to hear the input. Fauci and I won't be upset. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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It is. (Good grief! That's twice Ive disagreed with Jacksdad. I'd better go lie down for shock.)
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Nah - you're okay, Techno. I agree that it is meeting the criteria based on it's rapid spread between countries - it's just the severity that I have issues with. I guess I've been scanning the horizon long enough for the once a century killer like 1918 H1N1 that I've become somewhat jaded. Monsters like that raise the bar considerably.
I really don't see a way to stop Zika becoming a part of the landscape as many other mosquito/tick-borne diseases have, especially if it finds other vectors like the Asian Tiger mosquito, but at the same time I'm really not seeing anything yet that suggests a major pandemic in the making, and that's what I prep for. While this virus is more than likely H2H (at least as an STD), it doesn't seem to have the tools necessary to run rampant through society, and sicken/kill large numbers in a short time. As fragile and hopelessly interconnected as we've allowed modern society to become, it still takes a lot to derail our way of life, and while there are bugs out there capable of doing just that with a few minor genetic tweaks, Zika doesn't seem to come close in it's current form in my opinion. That said, it doesn't diminish the impact it will undoubtedly have on children born with microcephaly. As a parent, my heart goes out to the families affected by this nasty virus. I know some are predicting numbers great enough to impact our health/education systems, but I find it hard to imagine that many cases - in the west at least. While one victim is too many given the promise it takes away from that child, whether society will be affected in any meaningful way by a wider outbreak remains to be seen. I know sometimes I don't necessarily seem like I'm too concerned about the impacts of emerging diseases, but I have a pretty good idea of what would have me heading for the hills with a truck full of preps. I don't think it was a secret that Ebola didn't exactly cause me too many sleepless nights, and Zika isn't showing me anything that concerns me too much yet. Early days though, so I'm keeping an open mind. One thing I've learned is that viruses should never be underestimated, especially novel strains suddenly given a much larger group to hone their skills in. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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I agree with everything Jacksdad has said above.
For me, a pandemic is something that you can catch inadvertently and is contagious, such as flu. Flu or a similar air borne virus is what worries me. As long as Zika is caught only from mosquitoes or sexual contact then I don't think it's a pandemic so I'm voting no. I will keep an open mind though, and if it becomes more easily transmissable then I'll change my mind. I was interested to hear that Brazil is revisiting it's strict abortion laws. I feel so desperately sorry for the parents of those babies.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Yep - in the absence of something we haven't yet seen (and I'm sure there are candidates deep in the rainforests and jungles patiently waiting for us to bulldoze a road their way), it's always going to be something airborne and highly contagious like the flu that scares the bejeezus out of me.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I have no doubt that it is going pandemic. What actually scares me is that I believe it will become globally endemic.
True, the vast majority of sufferers are asymptomatic, but the effect upon the unborn and the birth rate will (possibly/probably) become catastrophic.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Don't forget that once it's widespread enough that more people are exposed, it's extremely likely that immunity will begin to show up in humans. It was shown to have happened before in India in the fifties when people were found to have antibodies to Zika, possibly from exposure to Dengue (from the same class of viruses).
http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/in-fact-how-worried-should-you-be-about-zika/ |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Well, that is heartening, JD.
It does still have some other cards up its sleeve yet. For instance, it infects other primates as well as us, maybe other mammals, or even other vertebrates. Having other reservoir species always waves a red warning flag. To add to the huge list of things we do not know about it, we do not even know its RO. Without that fundamental bit of knowledge, who is to say it will not emulate measles and only ever manage brief local dieouts?
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Yep - it would be good to know it's RO. It would give us a much better idea of where this is heading, but I think the mosquito vector will be the most important factor in it's spread (which I will suspect is pretty much unstoppable at this point). It stands a very good chance of becoming endemic just about everywhere, especially if it can find new species of mosquito to act as carriers.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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