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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Dengue Virus is not Zika -Bait and Switch

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Medclinician View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 14 2016 at 7:14am
Now alarms are going off over the increase (250 cases) in Hawaii. Let's get things in perspective, okay?  Before we have to start passing out Tin Hats again.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en/

The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically around the world in recent decades. The actual numbers of dengue cases are underreported and many cases are misclassified. One recent estimate indicates 390 million dengue infections per year (95% credible interval 284–528 million), of which 96 million (67–136 million) manifest clinically (with any severity of disease).1 Another study, of the prevalence of dengue, estimates that 3900 million people  in 128 countries, are at risk of infection with dengue viruses.2

390 million infections. Who woke up and smelled the coffee and declared an alert over 250? I have been posting about Dengue for years. If you were going to call anything Pandemic, it would be Dengue.

So now we find it's all over... duh. Of course it would be. Almost 400 million cases - that is like almost 6% of the world population. What planet have most of the health organizations been on as many of these diseases run rampant in the tropics and often in the third world?

Perhaps this is not racism, but it is elitism of a sort of the rich countries versus the poor ones. Ebola was ravaging West Africa and it was gruesome but no one was doing much of anything. Then there were a few cases in the U.S. and it was all over the headlines - ones and twos - not thousands. So here we go again. As long as it is not in America, China, Europe, or Russia it is not an emergency. 

The test for Zika (the one that takes longer) is very hard to use to tell which one it is. The PCR is some better, but the recent rash of Zika in Brazil and Argentina could have been Dengue.  With all the hoopla over thousands - very few were actually verified and it is still rough to link micro-cephalic babies to Zika.

Imagine if some state declared a state of  emergency over 250 cases of Flu.  It really seems that so many people and organizations are so interested in being the first to call this, many are panicking before they have the numbers to do so.

On AFT I have watched for years as we would post ones and twos of new viruses in China that simply never got off the ground and never spread. The MERS virus never took off nor did Avian Flu really. We never had an Avian Flu Pandemic.

We are in a period of global warming. That is a given fact. It may make it cold in some areas but over all we are going to see even the jungle move further north and mosquitoes showing up in New York in the dead of winter. Of course Dengue will spread further north.

They had a world conference on global warming and they were talking about changing bus schedules and how much money countries would get to fight it.

Opinion: If a disease disaster is declared in the United States - an epidemic - there is a chance the elections will be called off. Truly. Executive orders will kick in and there could be martial law.  Even since we started including national disasters with nuclear attacks it has changed the whole ballgame. So where is the state of emergency declared?  Hawaii.

Bait and Switch -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bait-and-switch
Bait-and-switch is a form of fraud used in retail sales but also employed in other contexts. First, customers are "baited" by merchants' advertising products or services at a low price, but when customers visit the store, they discover that the advertised goods are not available, or the customers are pressured by sales people to consider similar, but higher priced items ("switching").

comment: Kind of like a presidential election. We get all these promises and few, if any are followed through on, and we end up with something that really costs us much more than we ever expected it would.

point: We have had Dengue spreading a lot for almost a decade and last year very badly. Now it's an election year and suddenly the headlines are "one case of Zika virus was transmitted in the U.S." so we better be careful.

Yes, be careful and be prepared but don't be diverted from much more important things that are happening. The mainstream news has become Saturday Night Live and some of the broadcasters have missed their calling. Now seriously... what is the "the real news"?

Medclinician
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2016 at 9:24am
Got the tin hat on.  Is some entity flooding the mosquito population with both viruses?   Do we have an infected mosquito hatchery mass producing and releasing?   Better shut that place down, which is either the Yap Islands or Uganda.  Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2016 at 9:41am
Good job once again Med.


Hawaii declares state of emergency over Zika virus, dengue fever outbreak

HONOLULU –  Hawaii Gov. David Ige declared a state of emergency to fight mosquito borne illnesses including dengue fever and the Zika virus.

The state has been in the midst of a dengue fever outbreak on Hawaii's Big Island, where there were more than 250 confirmed cases.

There have been no locally transmitted cases of the Zika virus in Hawaii, Ige said in a news conference Friday. But there's concern that the islands could be at risk because mosquitoes that can carry dengue fever also can carry the Zika virus.

"We are doing everything we can to be prepared, to be proactive, to prevent vector borne diseases here in Hawaii," Ige said.

The emergency proclamation could help the state acquire more money to control outbreaks.

Hawaii is rushing to build up its mosquito control staff after a December report from the Centers for Disease Control highlighted deficiencies in the state's vector control department. The state slashed its mosquito control and entomology staff during the economic downturn, from 56 employees in 2009 to 25 positions in 2016. Health officials are now searching for funding to rebuild the staff, and the Department of Health plans to hire 10 new staffers with money the governor released, said Virginia Pressler, director of department, on Friday.

"We are actively hiring new staff, an entomologist that will be dedicated to Hawaii Island that will be starting next week as well as additional communications and vector control staff," Pressler said.

Officials stressed that Hawaii is still a safe place to visit. No travel advisories have been issued about Hawaii, and tourism is off to a strong start in 2016, said George Szigeti, president and CEO of the Hawaii Tourism Authority.

"There's no reason to be alarmed or to alter your traveling plans," Szigeti said.

There are active Zika outbreaks on Pacific Islands including American Samoa. Flights between American Samoa and Hawaii run several times per week.

The proclamation also will give the state more power to take preventive measures, including the ability to spray pesticides regardless of a homeowner's wishes.

"There are some who are holding out and not allowing us to be on their property," Pressler said. "One of the things that this emergency declaration from the governor will allow us to do is that we can in fact enforce that we will come and take care of mosquitoes on a property that someone is refusing, because it is a public health emergency."

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2016/02/14/hawaii-declares-state-emergency-over-zika-virus-dengue-fever-outbreak.html


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2016 at 11:12am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Good job once again Med.


Hawaii declares state of emergency over Zika virus, dengue fever outbreak

HONOLULU –  Hawaii Gov. David Ige declared a state of emergency to fight mosquito borne illnesses including dengue fever and the Zika virus.

The state has been in the midst of a dengue fever outbreak on Hawaii's Big Island, where there were more than 250 confirmed cases.

There have been no locally transmitted cases of the Zika virus in Hawaii, Ige said in a news conference Friday. But there's concern that the islands could be at risk because mosquitoes that can carry dengue fever also can carry the Zika virus.



Hello Albert and thanks. Had to cut my last post short because - well it is Valentine's Day and well... you know some things and people in life are really more important ...

but it's like this - the problem with Dengue is not new.

http://health.hawaii.gov/docd/dengue-outbreak-2015/

As of February 12, 2016*:

Since the last update, HDOH has identified 1 new case of dengue fever.  Currently, as many as 1 of the confirmed cases to date are potentially infectious to mosquitoes. All others are no longer infectious.

Of the confirmed cases, 231 are Hawaii Island residents and 24 are visitors.

209 cases have been adults; 46 have been children (<18 years of age). Onset of illness has ranged between 9/11/15 – 2/6/16.

As of today, a total of 1192 reported potential cases have been excluded based on test results and/or not meeting case criteria.

Potentially infectious individuals 1 Illness onset 2/6/16

Cases no longer infectious 254 Illness onset 9/11/15 to 2/1/16

comment: No, we can't put a muzzle on the press but we can dig deeper and find out what is hype and what is scary.

http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2015/11/20/new-map-pinpoints-dengue-fever-cases-in-hawaii/

So in the last official published numbers (late 2015) we have 1,431,603 people in Hawaii. And we are talking 250 people with Dengue most of those who will recover? Emergency?

There were almost no Zika stories today as per how much of what was in Brazil was Zika and how much as Dengue. Was 3900 million from WHO is misprint of possible cases of Dengue? -and that was last year.

You know there are no accidents in a perfect world (Blondie)  We are in the dead heat (at least beginning) of the presidential primaries and as I stated before - what a time - picture this - in the heat of the summer - when all our little biting friends truly get inspired - we have a massive spread of Dengue.  Well what about the 390 million who had it before - how many died from it?

Let's do the math so far...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever_outbreaks

2010 - The World
cases 1,785,059   deaths - 2,398  .134%

While estimates of case-fatality (CF) rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2.5% (1918 pandemic); the official World Health Organization estimate for the current outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza to date is around 60%.

LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - At least one in five people worldwide were infected with swine flu during the first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, an international research group said on Friday, but the death rate was just 0.02 percent.


comment: So what do you think?  I mean Ebola can have a CFR of 50-100%. Perhaps Dengue has a high enough death rate to be considered a threat but closing thought here is - Dengue has been a problem for years. Is it suddenly going to sweep the planet and people will start dying in the streets? (BITS) (bodies in the streets)

Why does the press get so upset? Lack of much exciting to report in February - could be.

Medclinician





So

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2016 at 12:37pm
I hear ya man.   No prob and glad you have other plans here on Valentines.  Personally, my love life is so complicated at the moment that it makes tracking Zika, Dengue and the next pandemic seem like a cake walk.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2016 at 10:16am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

I hear ya man.   No prob and glad you have other plans here on Valentines.  Personally, my love life is so complicated at the moment that it makes tracking Zika, Dengue and the next pandemic seem like a cake walk.  




You know - it's all about quality of life. Even if the bombs are going off and you have no power or network and you have a sweetheart and you love each other- life still can be good.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2016 at 1:53pm
We do have no power - for much of the day, and only in 4/10 rooms when it is working.  Our house is a work in progress.  Storm Frank over Christmas tore 1/2 of our roof off (It was explosive!).  Technobrat and I have flu.  Willowby brat has a strange lump and a maxillo-facial appointment for Wednesday.  I am facing orthopaedic surgery.  It is bloody freezing with 1/2 a roof and the bathroom is open to the snow!  Insurance agreed to pay up but they take their bloody time!!!

But we have each other and life is very, very sweet!

Well said, Med!
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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