Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - (R0) factor for pneumonic plague
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

(R0) factor for pneumonic plague

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Diligent View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: April 11 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 1300
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Diligent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: (R0) factor for pneumonic plague
    Posted: November 04 2017 at 10:26am
Please, anyone contribute to what I am seeing.

CDC studies show that for each primary case, an [ (R0) factor of 1.3 ] was observed in previous outbreaks of pneumonic plague.

Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 04 2017 at 11:00am
Originally posted by Diligent Diligent wrote:

Please, anyone contribute to what I am seeing.

CDC studies show that for each primary case, an [ (R0) factor of 1.3 ] was observed in previous outbreaks of pneumonic plague.


Pneumonic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestisis, has been studied extensively since it has very high potential to be used as a bioweapon (FBI term "select agent").   This article has some insights that may be helpful to you:


Although pneumonic plague is listed by the Centers of Disease Control in the leading ‘critical biological agents’, very few studies exist on this subject. In this study, a mathematical compartment model was used to describe the geographical and temporal spread of an epidemic of pneumonic plague following its use as a biological weapon. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in order to assess the key parameters for the control of an outbreak in France. If interventions were taken 10 days after an attack, a reference scenario of 1000 index cases in Paris would lead to 2500 deaths. The results of the study indicate that the rapidity of onset of interventions has the largest effect on the final size of the epidemic, followed by wearing masks, treating contacts preventively and quarantine. Limiting inter-regional mixing does little to reduce casualties, although it does confine them to a single region.
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down