Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
China Confirms Wuhan Pneumonia Spreads H2H. |
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John L.
Expert Level Adviser Joined: September 03 2017 Location: New York/USA Status: Offline Points: 1415 |
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Posted: January 20 2020 at 10:08am |
People are now getting this who live hundreds of miles from Wuhan. The cat is now out of the bag. Still unknown, how easily H2H, limited so it may burn out, or readily until we have 1918 again?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/world/asia/coronavirus-china-symptoms.html China Confirms New Coronavirus Spreads From Humans to Humans A top Chinese government-appointed expert says a mysterious respiratory illness that has killed at least three people can be transmitted by humans, heightening concern about the outbreak. Outside Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China, the city where the virus originated. Outside Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China, the city where the virus originated.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Javier C. HernándezAustin Ramzy By Javier C. Hernández and Austin Ramzy Jan. 20, 2020 Updated 12:59 p.m. ET WUHAN, China — The mysterious coronavirus that has killed at least three people and sickened more than 200 in China is now capable of spreading from person to person, a prominent Chinese scientist said on Monday, adding to fears of a broader pandemic. The disclosure increased pressure on the Chinese government to contain a growing public health crisis, just as China enters its busiest travel season of the year. The authorities had previously said the deadly virus seemed capable of spreading only from animals to humans in most cases, tracing the outbreak to a market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. But in recent days at least two people have become infected with the pneumonialike virus even though they live hundreds of miles from Wuhan, experts said on Monday, suggesting that the illness is spreading from person to person. “Now we can say it is certain that it is a human-to-human transmission phenomenon,” Zhong Nanshan, a scientist who is leading a government-appointed expert panel on the outbreak, said in an interview on state-run television on Monday. Millions of Chinese are traveling this week for the Lunar New Year holiday, adding to fears that the virus could spread swiftly and on a broader scale. Experts said the severity of the outbreak would now depend on how many people, on average, a person with virus could infect. “There are now sufficient cases that it’s not going to die out by chance,” said Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College London who has studied the new virus. “The real question now is, how efficiently can this virus spread from person to person?” China’s leader, Xi Jinping, said on Monday that the outbreak “must be taken seriously” and that every possible measure should be taken to contain it, according to the state broadcaster CCTV. Also on Monday, the authorities reported that new cases had been detected for the first time in Beijing, in Shanghai and the southern city of Shenzhen, all hundreds of miles from Wuhan. Cases have also been reported in Japan, South Korea and Thailand. Here is what we know about the virus, where it has been found, how it is spreading and what precautions are being taken: The virus emerged in the city of Wuhan. The government of Wuhan first confirmed on Dec. 31 that hospitals in the city were treating dozens of patients for pneumonia with an unknown cause. Many of the cases were connected to the Huanan Seafood Market, which also sold live poultry and exotic animal meats. Considered a likely source of the virus, the market was closed and disinfected. The health commission in Wuhan said on Sunday that the illness had also appeared in people who had not been exposed to the market, raising the possibility that the virus could be present elsewhere in the city. ImageThe Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, which has been linked to the new coronavirus, has been disinfected and closed. The Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, which has been linked to the new coronavirus, has been disinfected and closed.Credit...Getty Images Local officials have pledged to handle the outbreak with transparency. But the memory of how China initially covered up the extent of a deadly SARS outbreak that infected more than 8,000 people in 2002 and 2003 has not completely faded. Although flu experts have said the Chinese government is trying to be more transparent now, many in China remain skeptical. Over the weekend, the number of reported cases more than tripled to about 200, mostly in Wuhan. One more person in the city died, bringing the total death toll to three, while nine others remained critically ill, the city’s health commission said. Twenty-five people have recovered. On Monday, five new cases were reported in Beijing, 14 in Guangdong Province, and one in Shanghai — the first cases reported in China outside Wuhan. The total number of cases climbed to at least 218, state media reported on Monday. The World Health Organization said the spike in reported cases was the result of increased searching and testing for respiratory illnesses. The virus now appears to spread between humans. Researchers in China identified the mysterious pneumonialike illness in early January as a new coronavirus. Experts initially said that it did not appear to be readily spread by humans, but on Monday Mr. Zhong said that in Guangdong, a southern province, two individuals appeared to have been infected by relatives who had traveled to Wuhan. Mr. Zhong said the virus could be present in particles of saliva. He added that in one case, a patient appeared to have infected 14 medical workers. Coronaviruses are named for the spikes that protrude from their membranes, like the sun’s corona. Such viruses cause several illnesses of the respiratory tract, ranging from the common cold to severe diseases like SARS. According to the World Health Organization, common signs of infection include fever, cough, and respiratory difficulties like shortness of breath. Serious cases can lead to pneumonia, kidney failure and even death. Cases have been reported outside China. The authorities in Thailand detected the new coronavirus last week in two Chinese women who had flown from Wuhan to Bangkok on separate trips. The government said the women, aged 74 and 61, were in good condition. In Japan, a Chinese man who returned from Wuhan on Jan. 6 was also confirmed to have the disease. He was discharged after five days in a hospital. South Korea confirmed its first case of the coronavirus on Monday in a 35-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan who arrived on Sunday at Incheon International Airport, which serves Seoul. The woman was found with a fever, muscle pain and other symptoms while going through customs and was immediately quarantined for tests, said Jung Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The woman was traveling with five other people intending to spend the Lunar New Year holidays in South Korea and Japan, Ms. Jung said. South Korean officials were running tests on anyone believed to have come in contact with the woman in the plane, she said. Officials have implemented precautionary measures. In Hong Kong, the government initiated a disease response plan after the first cases were reported in Wuhan. Dozens of people were hospitalized after returning to Hong Kong from mainland China, but none were found to have been infected with the new virus. Five people who traveled from Wuhan to Zhejiang, a coastal Chinese province south of Shanghai, are being treated for fever but have not been diagnosed with the new coronavirus, the health authorities there said. Image Monitoring passengers arriving at the Hong Kong airport this month. Monitoring passengers arriving at the Hong Kong airport this month.Credit...Andy Wong/Associated Press State media also reported six suspected cases on Monday, including two in Sichuan Province, one in Shanghai, one in Yunnan Province, one in Shandong Province and one in the region of Guangxi. In the southern city of Shenzhen, the authorities have started imposing temperature screening procedures at the airport and at train and bus stations. The city also said it would also crack down on the illegal trading of wild animals. Animals appear to be the most likely source. The W.H.O. says animals appear to be the most likely primary source of the outbreak, though it is still not known which animals are responsible. Past outbreaks of similar illnesses, like SARS, were believed to have emerged from markets where people and live animals were in regular contact. To prevent the spread of respiratory infections, the W.H.O. recommends that people wash their hands regularly, cover their mouths and noses when coughing and sneezing, and avoid direct contact with farm or wild animals. The health authorities in Hong Kong have also advised residents traveling outside the city not to touch live animals, not to eat wild animals, and to avoid markets selling fresh meat and live poultry. Choe Sang-Hun contributed reporting from Seoul, South Korea. Elsie Chen contributed research from Wuhan, and Albee Zhang contributed research from Beijing. Javier C. Hernández is a China correspondent based in Beijing. Since joining The Times in 2008, he has covered education, financial markets and New York City politics. @HernandezJavier Austin Ramzy is a Hong Kong reporter, focusing on coverage of the city and also of regional and breaking news. He previously covered major events around Asia from Taipei and Beijing. @austinramzy |
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John L.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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We should seriously be expecting this to show up in our neighborhoods in the very near future, no matter where we live. This bug moves like it’s milder cousin, the common cold, and the Lunar New Year couldn’t come at a worst time to stop it’s spread.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Absolutely! (I'm still your yessman, JD.)
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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China's 'Mystery Virus' Could Be Far More Widespread Than Officials Say
[This article suggests that, at least to some extent, China is still convering stuff up. That is all we need!!! ] AFP 20 JAN 2020 The true scale of the outbreak of a mysterious SARS-like virus in China is likely far bigger than officially reported, scientists have warned, as countries ramp up measures to prevent the disease from spreading. Fears that the virus will spread are growing ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, when hundreds of millions of Chinese move around the country and many others host or visit extended family members living overseas. Authorities in China say two people have died and at least 45 have been infected, with the outbreak centred around a seafood market in the central city of Wuhan, a city of 11 million inhabitants that serves as a major transport hub. But a paper published Friday by scientists with the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London said the number of cases in the city was likely closer to 1,700. The researchers said their estimate was largely based on the fact that cases had been reported overseas – two in Thailand and one in Japan. The virus - a new strain of coronavirus that humans can contract - has caused alarm because of its connection to SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which killed nearly 650 people across mainland China and Hong Kong in 2002-2003. China has not announced any travel restrictions, but authorities in Hong Kong have already stepped up detection measures, including rigorous temperature checkpoints for inbound travellers from the Chinese mainland. The US said from Friday it would begin screening flights arriving from Wuhan at San Francisco airport and New York's JFK - which both receive direct flights - as well as Los Angeles, where many flights connect. And Thailand said it was already screening passengers arriving in Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Phuket and would soon introduce similar controls in the beach resort of Krabi. Two deaths No human-to-human transmission has been confirmed so far, but Wuhan's health commission has said the possibility "cannot be excluded". A World Health Organization doctor said it would not be surprising if there was "some limited human-to-human transmission, especially among families who have close contact with one another". Scientists with the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis - which advises bodies including the World Health Organization - said they estimated a "total of 1,723" people in Wuhan would have been infected as of 12 January. "For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported," Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the authors of the report, told the BBC. "I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago," he said, while adding that it was "too early to be alarmist". "People should be considering the possibility of substantial human-to-human transmission more seriously than they have so far," he continued, saying it was "unlikely" that animal exposure was the sole source of infection. Local authorities in Wuhan said a 69-year-old man died on Wednesday, becoming the second fatal case, with the disease causing pulmonary tuberculosis and damage to multiple organ functions. After the death was reported, online discussion spread in China over the severity of the Wuhan coronavirus - and how much information the government may be hiding from the public. Several complained about censorship of online posts, while others made comparisons to 2003, when Beijing drew criticism from the WHO for underreporting the number of SARS cases. ['And the bit I referred to at the start ......] "It's so strange," wrote a web user on the social media platform Weibo, citing the overseas cases in Japan and Thailand. "They all have Wuhan pneumonia cases but (in China) we don't have any infections outside of Wuhan - is that scientific?" Source: http://sciencealert2014.com/scientists-estimate-1-700-cases-in-wuhan-of-mysterious-sars-like-virus |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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That’s the scariest number I’ve seen so far. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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That's a lot of snogging!
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Sorry! Graveyard humour.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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One sneeze could infect 50+ people....
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Well we need a flu/pneumonia/something that will kill a bunch of us...it will save us from Climate Change!!! So all WE can do is keep track of this thing and SIP when it starts getting bad. If it is H2H this will not take long to spread all over the planet. If we die it is sad but will stop Climate Change!
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Absolutely FluMom.....
Nothing to be afraid of..... Remember, No-one gets out of this Life Alive..... LMAO |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Wikipedia is amazing with keeping up at the latest case count, and faster than any news source. Case count at 291.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019��20_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV) |
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Sorry Boss, your link does not work for me.
Here is an alternative: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV) |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Good job, thanks techno. :)
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Lol.... we're all gonna die out here. |
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Loribearme
Adviser Group Joined: September 06 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2542 |
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Now they are saying 300 cases and six deaths
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Now I pose a question.
Of those who died (so far) how many were among the first 27 patients? If the answer is: "All of them" then we have a 22% death rate - which could still rise even further. THAT MEANS THE WORLD HAS A REALLY BIG PROBLEM! If on the other hand, the deaths are spread across the 300 known cases, then the disease has a death rate of 2% and we have a small problem. If the deaths fall right across the possible 4000+ possible cases then this is just a bad cold; with a death rate of around 0.1%. (The "common cold" is a coronavirus too, just a type we are all too familiar with.) Some people will die of anything, there has even been a case of "death by goldfish" recorded. I am actively looking for an answer, but don't expect one anytime soon. Please keep your eyes open everyone. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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308 cases confirmed
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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kiwi
Valued Member Joined: February 19 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 51 |
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Very scary and this is just the 1st wave
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