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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

H5N1 pandemic

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2024 at 5:51am

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-cover-up-of-mystery-flu-outbreak-in-argentina-that-has-left-many-in-icu-is-more-than-just-possible-psittacosis-h5n1-suspected[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-cover-up-of-mystery-flu-outbreak-in-argentina-that-has-left-many-in-icu-is-more-than-just-possible-psittacosis-h5n1-suspected link to [url]https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/health/mystery-flu-similar-covid-leaves-32619076[/url] or https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/health/mystery-flu-similar-covid-leaves-32619076 ;

Doctors are on high alert over a mystery flu-like illness - with similarities to Covid-19 - that has people critically ill in Argentina.

International public health surveillance system, ProMed, issued an alert on April 17 after 60 cases of the unknown sickness were reported in Buenos Aires. This is the same database that first alerted authorities to Covid-19 back in late 2019.

The alert, submitted anonymously "via an individual known to ProMed", stated: "In the past 30 days, there appears to have been an increase in severe atypical pneumonia requiring critical care in Buenos Aires. The affected individuals are mostly young people without major risk factors."


While no official statements have been made by Argentinian officials, it's reported that patients have needed mechanical ventilation to help them breathe. Over a third of those affected showed symptoms of psittacosis, a disease caused by a type of chlamydia found in birds. However, many had no apparent history of contact with birds, the alert noted.

Psittacosis, also known as parrot fever, is causing concern with its flu-like symptoms that can escalate to pneumonia. It's a particular worry for the elderly or those with weakened immune systems, reports the Daily Star. The alert warned: "Although psittacosis appears to be the etiology of some of the cases, there may be more than one agent involved. ProMED would appreciate more information about these cases."

The Daily Mail reports that experts are urging health officials not to take the situation lightly, despite reassurances that it's "unlikely this will pose a threat more widely".

DJ, One would hope testing for H5N1 would detect H5N1 if there is H5N1....but testing may be far from perfect...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/960736-avian-flu-h5n1-discussion-news-case-lists-links-2022/page4#post988595[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/960736-avian-flu-h5n1-discussion-news-case-lists-links-2022/page4#post988595 ;


“In the current panzootic, the first case of H5N1 infection in mink in Spain probably occurred through contact with infected birds (perhaps seagulls). Ingestion of infected bird carcasses was likely the route of infection for red foxes in the Netherlands, Finland, and Japan during 2020-2022, American sea lions in Peru in 2023, various mesocarnivores in Canada during 2021-2022, and otters ( Lutra lutra ) and a lynx ( Lynx lynx ) in Finland in 2021-2022.

But they also warned of a risk . “Studies in infected tigers, farmed minks and social species such as fur seals are worrying, raising the alarm that mammal-to-mammal transmission may have occurred .” They acknowledged that “more research is needed to confirm this possibility.”

In South America, avian flu arrived in 2022 and caused massive mortalities in sea lions and elephant seals in Peru, Chile and Argentina. “Now there is a period of relative calm. But we must maintain vigilance,” Dr. Plaza told Infobae .

In Antarctica, as an international expedition warned days ago, avian flu is harming wildlife. Aboard a sailboat, researchers scoured the Weddell Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula for a month, and found carcasses of migratory seabirds similar to seagulls, called Antarctic skuas, with flu in four of the 10 areas analyzed.

They found 50 dead skuas. On Heroína Island, where there is a large colony of Adelie penguins, “a massive mortality of these animals was observed with more than 500 corpses in the investigated place, which suggests that an abnormal mortality event may have occurred in the that several thousand penguins would have perished,” they reported.

DJ...poultry litter but also insects could play a role in H5N1 spread in US cows;

At a recent meeting, scientists from the US Department of Agriculture stated that the virus does not occur as a respiratory disease in livestock. That means the animals don't seem to excrete large amounts of virus through their nose or mouth.

“I want to emphasize how unusual this is,” Thijs Kuiken , a professor of comparative pathology and avian flu researcher at Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands , told NPR radio . “In other mammal species with influenza viruses, it is primarily a respiratory illness, which does not appear to be the case in these cattle.”

Meanwhile, days ago, a group of scientists presented a study that revealed the presence of the H5N1 bird flu virus in at least a small fraction of the birds in New York . People often associate zoonotic diseases with rural environments, farms or natural spaces, said Florian Krammer, an influenza expert at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York who led the study. But New York City has many green spaces and bodies of water that are used by migratory and local birds.

In dialogue with Infobae , Dr. Sergio Lambertucci , researcher at the Biodiversity and Environment Research Institute (INIBIOMA) of Conicet and the National University of Comahue of Argentina , explained: “The avian flu infection is affecting more mammals as that time passes. The presence of the virus in cattle in the United States is worrying because they are animals that are more in contact with people.”

Currently, the avian flu situation is considered to be a “ panzootic ” because it is a serious infectious disease that spreads across large areas of the world and affects one or several species of animals in many countries.

“Panzootia has not yet conquered the entire planet, but it is going in that direction. “It did reach Antarctica, affecting several species already,” he noted.

DJ, H5N1 may already be "extreme" in both duration and spread...

Sunday night's excitement about an upload from   of sequence data on the #H5N1 #birdflu outbreaks in cows turned to frustration Monday as scientists realized key info had been left out of the files. Without it, it's very hard to assess what's going on. https://statnews.com/2024/04/21/usda-releases-h5n1-bird-flu-genetic-data-eagerly-awaited-by-scientists/

DJ...

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/04/articles/animals/other-animals/h5n1-flu-and-pasteurizationdoes-it-work/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/04/articles/animals/other-animals/h5n1-flu-and-pasteurizationdoes-it-work/ H5N1 may spread via raw milk of infected (but asymptomatic) cows...It would be "wise & welcome" to keep "products" from infected cows away from the food chain...(so also not use it to feed pigs...). 

Not including the #H5N1 goat infections from early March and not submitting the data to GSAID for peer review explains all you need to know about what the USDA doesn’t want you to know.

DJ...more and more the H5N1 story may become a "very bad news story" nobody is "jumping" to tell...Even if it is not yet spreading in humans it is high risk for lots of mammals, we need urgently to rethink food production (poultry/meat/eggs/diary...It starts hurting the economy..."Saving the economy at the cost of public health" is also ongoing with (denial of) CoViD...

Certainly if you work with animals protection (mask/eye-protection) is wise !

[url]https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1782499103689089145[/url] or https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1782499103689089145 ;

Bloomberg: The Bird Flu Outbreak Is Alarming. And the Government Is Stumbling. The H5N1 crisis at dairy farms shows that public health agencies have failed to absorb the lessons of Covid.

link; [url]https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-22/with-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-in-cows-cdc-stumbles-again?srnd=prognosis[/url] or https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-22/with-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-in-cows-cdc-stumbles-again?srnd=prognosis 

DJ...also some forms of CoViD (in Finland ?) missed some of the rapid-testing segments and could be missed...Both CoViD and H5N1 -by now- is very widespread. Testing alone can not stop it...vaccines have their limits...so Non Pharma Interventions (NPI=masks etc.) may need to increase.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2024 at 6:10am







Replying to 
But it looks to me like a strong possiblity that this has been circulating in cattle for  months under our noses, even before the first inkling there might be something new in February. This reveals massive gaps in our pathogen surveillance and detection systems.

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[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-viruses-such-as-h5n1-are-also-wind-borne-and-can-be-transmitted-over-distances-of-up-to-25-km[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-viruses-such-as-h5n1-are-also-wind-borne-and-can-be-transmitted-over-distances-of-up-to-25-km link to [url]https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0031114[/url] or https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0031114 ;

Abstract

A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms.

 Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. 

The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. 

Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-in-2013-showed-that-h5n1-virus-can-survive-for-long-periods-at-various-temperature-newer-strains-could-be-even-better[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-in-2013-showed-that-h5n1-virus-can-survive-for-long-periods-at-various-temperature-newer-strains-could-be-even-better  link to [url]https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13337-013-0135-2[/url] or https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13337-013-0135-2 ;

India has experienced continual outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI virus since February, 2006 especially in Eastern India. Survivability in poultry faeces is an important determinant in evaluating the persistence of the virus in the poultry sheds and their vicinity. In this paper, survivability of Indian H5N1 HPAI virus in dry and wet poultry faeces at 42, 37, 24 and 4 °C, respectively is reported. The effect of different temperatures was determined by linear regression model and defined in terms of linear equation. The virus survived up to 18 h at 42 °C, 24 h at 37 °C, 5 days at 24 °C and 8 weeks at 4 °C in dry and wet faeces, respectively. The coefficients of determination (R2) values for dry and wet faeces revealed that the difference in viral persistence in dry and wet faeces at all temperatures was not very marked. Results of the present study indicated that H5N1 HPAI virus may remain viable for extended periods of time in faeces at low temperatures and may act as a long term source of influenza virus in the environment.

DJ, So H5N1 may go airborne and can survive in different temperatures for weeks...









And how many farms. Also have pigs? Once it gets into the pig population, we’re in serious trouble

and

The USDA is not providing this information. We know there was at least one mixed farm. We know goats and possibly pigs were infected. They are not even acknowledging this in the data.

DJ, neither info on when or where sequences were detected...makes it very hard to get good epidemological models...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2024 at 2:11am
H5N1 in mosquitoes Blood-engorged mosquitoes were collected at poultry farms during an outbreak of HPAI in Central Thailand during October 2005. These mosquitoes tested positive for H5N1 virus by RT-PCR *Filed under "Things I wish I hadn't Googled" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18279078/

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[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/987828-discussion-thread-h5n1-avian-flu-in-us-dairy-cows-march-24-a-human-case-in-texas-april-1?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/987828-discussion-thread-h5n1-avian-flu-in-us-dairy-cows-march-24-a-human-case-in-texas-april-1?view=stream ;

FDA finds traces of H5N1 bird flu viruses in grocery store milk but says pasteurized dairy products are still safe


By Brenda Goodman, CNN
6 minute read
Published 8:27 PM EDT, Tue April 23, 2024


.......Dr. Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said the finding of viral particles in milk on grocery store shelves means the outbreak is probably more widespread than we’ve known.

“The dissemination to cows is far greater than we have been led to believe,” Topol said in an email Tuesday.

“The FDA assurance that the dairy supply is safe is nice, but it’s not based on extensive assessment yet, which they acknowledge, and won’t engender trust and confidence because it comes in the wake of USDA mishandling,” he added.


.....The USDA said it has encouraged farmers and ranchers to report cases of sick cattle to state animal health officials.

But neither cows nor the people who work or live around them are being widely screened for the infection, which would require informed consent. Testing of wastewater in areas with outbreaks is also being discussed.

.....
Instead, the CDC is monitoring emergency department data and flu testing data in areas where H5N1 viruses have been detected in dairy cattle for any unusual trends in flu-lik...e illness, flu or conjunctivitis. “So far, these data remain in expected ranges, and to date, surveillance systems do not show any unusual trends or activity,” according to information in a statement compiled by officials at the CDC.

CDC spokesperson Jason McDonald said that 23 people with exposures to H5N1 had been tested, including one person in Texas who previously tested positive. No other people have tested positive in the current outbreak, he said.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/23/healt...fda/index.html

related; [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/mixed-messaging-on-hpai-food-safety.html[url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/mixed-messaging-on-hpai-food-safety.html


DJ-tech problems- I will try later on ...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2024 at 1:27am

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/h5n1-can-survive-in-various-water-sources-including-sea-water-for-up-to-12-days-at-22-to-35-degrees-celsius[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/h5n1-can-survive-in-various-water-sources-including-sea-water-for-up-to-12-days-at-22-to-35-degrees-celsius 

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-viruses-can-also-spread-via-water-borne-transmissions[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-viruses-can-also-spread-via-water-borne-transmissions 

DJ-another question I have is -if we would go for large scale testing for (forms of) H5N1 would the tests pick up all/most cases...or would the test(method) miss cases ? 

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/an-hpai-cattle-roundup-april-25th.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/an-hpai-cattle-roundup-april-25th.html ;

Thursday, April 25, 2024

An HPAI Cattle Roundup - April 25th


 A growing, but incomplete, picture of affected States


#18,025

It's been a busy day, with a media report by Tyne Morgan writing in the Bovine Veterinarian a report that quotes Andrew Bowman at Ohio State University - who has tested 150 samples of pasteurized milk purchased at the retail level -  as finding 38% (n=58) were PCR positive for H5N1 RNA.

PCR positive does not indicate whether the virus remains infectious (aka `viable'), so samples have been forwarded to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, where attempts are being made to culture the virus. 

The milk was reportedly purchased from 6 states, but the manufacturing codes on the positive samples came from as many as 10 states.  Since the USDA has only confirmed 8 states with H5N1 in dairy cows, this suggests the problem is more widespread than has been reported. 

The decision announced yesterday that (starting next week) lactating cows must be tested prior to interstate transport should provide more data, but testing remains limited and voluntary for the vast majority of cattle herds. 

Another report by Rhonda Brooks, also in the Bovine Veterinarian called A Message to the Ag Industry about H5N1 warns that agricultural interests must take this threat very seriously, and quotes Texas veterinarian Dr. Barb Petersen as reporting seeing `sick humans' along with `sick cows' at multiple dairy farms.  

While only one mild case has been reported, in yesterday's HHS meeting (as reported by Helen Branswell for STAT),  CDC Deputy Director Nirav Shah acknowledged there have been obstacles to testing farm workers. 

“We’ve had a diversity of levels of engagement with farms,” Shah said. “These situations are challenging. There may be owners that are reluctant to work with public health to say nothing of individual workers who may be reluctant to sit down with somebody who identifies themself as being from the government in some way.”
At the same meeting, Mike Watson from APHIS confirmed that the USDA had `met some resistance' from some farmers with infected cows, and it is unknown whether orders to discard infected milk are being strictly enforced.
A week ago the CDC issued recommendations for protective gear to be worn when tending to potentially infected cattle, although it isn't clear how much they are being utilized, particularly when testing for the virus is limited.



Meanwhile, the topic of testing cattle outside of the United States appear to be a third-rail that few officials are willing to touch.  Sky News is reporting the UK has no plans to test local herds with a DEFRA official saying levels of avian flu are so low in birds right now that `it does not consider cattle to be at risk.'

That optimistically assumes that no spillover occurred over the winter, when infected birds were more abundant.  Our spillover to cattle in the appears to have occurred in late 2023, but wasn't detected until cattle were tested in March of this year.

I've found very little from Mexico, which both exports and imports cattle from the United States.  While I suspect (read: hope) some testing is being conducted, no one seems to be talking about it. 

As we discussed a few days ago, the consumption of raw (unpasteurized) milk is far more common in Mexico than in the U.S., and surveillance for potential human infections is arguably less robust than here in the states.  

While there is no way to know how big of a deal this HPAI outbreak in cattle will become, this crisis has demonstrated - once again - how unprepared the world is to deal with an inconvenient, and highly unpredictable, zoonotic threat.

I get it.  

We're all traumatized and weary from the last pandemic, and by all rights we should have a few years before we must deal with another.  But viruses don't read calendars, and all indications are that the time-between-pandemics has grown shorter.  

Which means we need to get better at surveillance and testing, and far more aggressive in responding to threats.   The H5N1 virus has been honing its skills for years, if we hope to be able to cope, we need to do the same. 

As always, the volunteer newshounds on FluTrackers are all over this story, and you'll find expert reporting from Lisa Schnirring at CIDRAP and Helen Branswell at STAT News.  

DJ;

-I do hope other countries do test farm animals for H5N1 !

-Reports of "sick farm workers and sick cows at the same farms" sound alarming !

-IF H5N1 spread is not taken more serious it WILL !!! get PANDEMIC !!!!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2024 at 1:44am

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/h5n1-outbreak-in-the-united-states-could-be-more-serious-and-extensive-than-reported-with-possible-cover-ups-of-threats-to-human-health[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/h5n1-outbreak-in-the-united-states-could-be-more-serious-and-extensive-than-reported-with-possible-cover-ups-of-threats-to-human-health good overview of "not learning a thing from CoViD"....








🚨 Pandemic Preparedness being tested in real time as the ðŸŒŽ gathers to “negotiate” a #PandemicAccord - The H5N1 outbreak in the USA is a wake up call. We have clearly forgotten the lessons of SARSCov2 but this looming disaster might not be so kind to humanity. We must ACT now.

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The H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows may be much much more extensive than has been reported. Nearly 40% of pasteurized milk tested from throughout the Midwest (58/150 samples) had evidence of H5N1 RNA. To prevent a pandemic, we have to get this under control. https://t.co/1WVpaT306D

-

It’s very odd that FDA/CDC focus is “Don’t worry, it’s a bird & cow problem, our food supply is fine.” Seems like allowing a huge reservoir of flu infected livestock is risky to humans, like 1000s of incubators for new mutations. Haven’t scientists been following H5N1 for years?

DJ...there is a worry H5N1 may end up in pigs...My -non expert- view; It is very likely H5N1 reached wild pigs...

Cattle Veterinarians Express Unease, Confusion over U.S. Response to H5N1 Bird Flu -  for   - Vets say without basic information such as how cows contract the virus and how long they shed it once infected, it's difficult to issue precise instructions for things like quarantine. https://thinkglobalhealth.org/article/cattle-veterinarians-express-confusion-over-us-response-bird-flu/

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Another problem is that reporting of sick cows is voluntary, and many farmers are averse to opening their operations up to government involvement. Others are in denial about the seriousness of the threat the virus poses to the cattle industry. This creates a problem with data collection and responses to the virus. https://thinkglobalhealth.org/article/cattle-veterinarians-express-confusion-over-us-response-bird-flu

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[url]https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1783456309108506902[/url] or https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1783456309108506902 

Nsikan, Great post. Do you think the    will only panic when people stop buying milk and beef.? It seems as if it will take financial implication before  a “real fix” will occur w transparency. Sadly it seems that only when ER’s are full will they grant full approval for new drugs / treatments. $IFRX $SNY $GSK #GoHibic

DJ, economy first...ignoring public health...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2024 at 2:13am

[url]https://www.reddit.com/r/Virology/comments/1br655j/so_in_the_rh5n1_avianflu_community_one_of_the/[/url] or https://www.reddit.com/r/Virology/comments/1br655j/so_in_the_rh5n1_avianflu_community_one_of_the/ 

DJ-I posted the above link march 31;


So in the r/H5N1_AvianFlu community, one of the users asked Claude Opus, a generative AI model, what would happen in the worst case scenario. This is what Claude had to say. Thoughts? Should we trust an AI generative model or no?


This is how the prompt went…

-human transmission of the mutated HPAI virus, which we'll call the "Omega Strain," occurs about 2 months after the initial detection in dairy cows. Here's how it could unfold: Despite biosecurity measures, the virus continues to spread rapidly among cattle herds across the country. 

The high mutation rate of the virus leads to a concerning development - a novel strain emerges that has acquired the ability to efficiently spread from cattle to humans and then between humans. 

The first human cases are reported among dairy farm workers who had close contact with infected cows. They experience severe flu-like symptoms that quickly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multi-organ failure. 

The case fatality rate in this initial cluster is a frightening 60%. Human-to-human transmission is soon confirmed as family members and healthcare workers treating the patients also fall ill. 

The virus spreads rapidly in healthcare settings and communities, overwhelming hospitals in affected areas. Within weeks, the Omega Strain has spread to all major U.S. cities and begins to appear in other countries. 

The global medical community scrambles to understand the virus and develop treatments, but its high mutation rate makes it a challenging target. In this scenario, the Omega Strain could have a case fatality rate of around 35-40% overall, higher in older adults and those with underlying health conditions. It would be particularly devastating in densely populated urban areas and countries with weaker health systems. By the 6-month mark, the worldwide death toll could reach into the tens of millions as countries struggle to control the spread and treat the sick. The pandemic would cause massive social and economic disruption on a global scale.

Is this really what will happen, or should we just wait and see? Should we always trust AI? I have a grandfather myself, and he’s in his 80’s, and I do not want him to be amongst this group as he’s coming to live with us.

DJ..So where are we now ? 

-There seems to be -still only reported in/from the US- cow-to-cow spread...

-Some of the Texas/other-cows may be exported to Mexico-worldwide ???

-"Anecdotal" reports of farm workers with symptoms at farms with cows with symptoms...

-Mixed farms (cows and pigs)  may -so far ???- have been able to keep (asymptomatic ???) H5N1 stick to cows...and farm cats ? 

DJ...since asymptomatic spread-and duration of spread (4 months + ???) are larger than expected...development of the H5N1 virus is  slower than expected ????

However H5N1 may be detected/found in hundreds of US cows...very likely -by now- also some exported cows may have had H5N1 as well...

DJ, the "bad thing" of no/mild symptoms is they are easy to ignore...If cows catch H5N1 in the morning would be dead in the evening alarmbells start ringing...but most may have NO symptoms...if they have symptoms they recover...so the virus spread goes on...

[url]https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp[/url] or https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp a.o. following "events"...CoViD cases increasing;








England, latest official ONS COVID report. Clear uptick like we’re at the beginning of another wave. Which is surprising given we’re into year 5 and surely there’s widespread and robust population immunity by now! âš ï¸ sarcasm âš ï¸

DJ...CoViD, measles (a.o.) reduces immunity protection...so H5N1 may get more chances...

AGAIN !!! H5N1 seems to be on its way to become a "major problem"!

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🚩Why the heck is NYT pushing unproven statements claiming that “federal regulators said… that samples of pasteurized milk had tested positive for INACTIVE REMNANTS” of H5N1—whenever the FDA never said such a thing! âž¡ï¸StatNews and FDA both debunk the incorrect NYT article, by saying that PCR cannot distinguish live/intact virus or dead virus fragments. This wasn’t a minor NYT misreporting—it’s the **lead sentence** of the NYT article! âž¡ï¸We need to ask, who the hell do NYT editors serve anyway? The people or Big Ag?

DJ, "media-for-sale" spreading "pseudo-info for sale"....

2) for a more fair and balanced article about H5N1, read this StatNews article. They explained the PCR testing issue much more fairly.

-

Testing conducted by the FDA on pasteurized commercially purchased milk has found genetic evidence of the H5N1 bird flu virus. âž¡ï¸But the testing, done by  PCR cannot distinguish between live virus or fragments of viruses that could have been killed by the pasteurization process. The FDA said it has been trying to see if it could grow virus from milk found to contain evidence of H5N1, which is the gold standard test to see if there is viable virus in a product. ðŸ“ŒThe FDA *does NOT explicitly say FDA laboratories were unable to find live virus in the milk samples, but nevertheless it does state that its belief that commercial, pasteurized milk is safe to consume has not been altered by these findings. (Sound familiar? Just like blanket assuming a virus “isn’t airborne”, “cannot transmit without symptoms”, “no human to human transmission” errors during COVID). That said, I will am hopeful that no live virus will be found in confirmation. But let’s be precautious. 

link [url]https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/23/h5n1-bird-flu-virus-particles-in-pasteurized-milk-fda/[/url] or https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/23/h5n1-bird-flu-virus-particles-in-pasteurized-milk-fda/ 

DJ, The US may not take H5N1 "serious enough"...it could be a lot of countries may do even worse....

1) I’m not currently worried about the safety of milk (or eggs). I trust the pasteurization process- for now. H5N1 is far more likely to make a jump into humans by fomite or airborne route. 2) I AM concerned that viral fragments in milk indicate wide transmission in animals.

DJ...again; still unclear how H5N1 is spreading between cows; insects, poultry-litter, milking-machines ???

Increase (better) testing in more (farm) animals...H5N1 in wild animals may be widespread...the virus seems to be strong...Each infection can result in mutations bringing it closer to a possible human-pandemic-risk...

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Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
·
âš ï¸Bad signal—CDC confirming—“cats having neurologic symptoms, rapid decline, and death” from H5N1 #birdflu. 3 more cases in cats ðŸˆ on dairy farms… now 6 total. âž¡ï¸The prior 3 bird flu positive cats? All dead now. Likely more. This is mammalian adaptation. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2024/04/3-more-cats-test-positive-for-h5n1-bird-flu-in-the-u-s/


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Very concerning. Could be other animals around farms dying also.  Not sure anyone is tracking. Genomic sequences of virus from these dead cats & cows on same farm would be enlightening.

DJ, the reported H5N1 cases in cows and one human was "mild"...Of course cats are smaller-may catch a relative high viral load from infected milk, "droppings" infected birds etc...So one needs to know more...NOW !!!

FDA says 99% of US milk products are pasteurized. But if 1% milk isn’t, and ~1 in 100 people are drinking unpasteurized milk, âž¡ï¸that’s ~3.3 million drinking unsafe milk products—a serious risk to public health given H5N1 levels are high in milk🥛. Let’s hope pasteurized is enough too.

DJ, a major risk -again- could be in (at first) a/mild symptomatic spread...

H5N1 - Virus spreading from cattle to poultry "8 poultry premises in 5 states (Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Texas) have also been infected with the same HPAI H5N1 virus genotype detected in dairy cattle." APHIS https://aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/dairy-federal-order.pdf

and

H5N1 - Virus spreading from cattle to poultry "The detection of this new distinct HPAI H5N1 virus genotype in dairy cattle poses a new animal disease risk for dairy cattle - as well as .. domestic poultry farms - since this genotype can infect both cattle and poultry."

DJ...H5N1 very likely jumped from birds (poultry litter) into cows-now back into poultry (fed "cow litter"...). 

If public health experts learned anything from the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s that if you keep saying “everything is mild” then “the common people tend not to pay attention at all.”

link; [url]https://www.salon.com/2024/04/26/as-bird-flu-worsen-experts-say-the-situation-threatens-to-spiral-out-of-control/[/url] or https://www.salon.com/2024/04/26/as-bird-flu-worsen-experts-say-the-situation-threatens-to-spiral-out-of-control/ ;

However, infectious disease experts warn this these positive tests are a sign that the outbreak is much bigger than previously thought, and indicate that the government doesn’t have a good grasp on the situation. And the problem only seems to be worsening. According to the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), H5N1 has been identified in 33 herds in eight states. On Thursday, a senior FDA official said 1 in 5 milk samples have tested positive for H5N1.

While experts aren’t expecting a H5N1 pandemic in humans to spread across the United States this year, yet, it’s likely it could be the next pandemic in the not-so-distant future. The fact that the current spread between species, and even to a few humans, is likely underestimated could mean that an emergency could arrive too late to contain.

Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and author of the newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist, told Salon “the worst case scenario” is that this turns into a “massive pandemic.” If a person asked a group of epidemiologists what the next pandemic is going to be, a majority would likely say “bird flu,” she said. 

“I think what would be most helpful is to mount a proactive response rather than always being in this reactive, defensive mode with diseases,” Jetelina said. “And if we can understand where it's going, how it's changing, then we can certainly prepare and know when it jumps to humans and when we do need to employ all the other steps.”

Such steps include making more vaccines, starting to get frontline workers vaccinated and more. 

“But if we're not following it, this could easily jump and start spreading without us knowing for a while,” Jetelina said. “And by then we're already in this reactive-defensive perspective.”








Veearts in Texas: "There's been underreporting of the virus. Understandably, there's been a lot of fear. But every dairy that I've worked with has – with the exception of one – had sick human beings at the same time they had sick cows.”👇🼠https://bovinevetonline.com/news/industry/message-ag-industry-about-h5n1 #H5N1 #vogelgriep

link; [url]https://www.bovinevetonline.com/news/industry/message-ag-industry-about-h5n1[/url] or https://www.bovinevetonline.com/news/industry/message-ag-industry-about-h5n1 ;

“We’re going on a bear hunt. We’re going to catch a big one… We’re not scared.”

So goes a beloved children’s book written by Michael Rosen. The story is a metaphor for how to address fear. Kay Russo, DVM, often reads it to her son and daughter, ages 4 and 6.

“This unfortunate family seems to deal with a lot of issues as they're going on their hike,” Russo says. “Ultimately, every time they reach one of these issues, the book basically says, ‘You know, we can't go over it. We can't go around it. We can't go under it. We have to go through it.’”


That story illustrates how the dairy industry must deal with the growing impact of H5N1, says Russo, Novonesis technical services manager for dairy and poultry. She’s watched the spread of the virus with alarm and urges U.S. leaders across dairy and agriculture to step up and take action. 

“Address it head-on,” she says. “Don’t hide.”

-

Russo says: a dime-sized piece of manure with H5N1 can infect up to 1 million chickens or turkeys.

DJ, you need to reduce the number of farm animals to reduce risks ! 

Vaccines have their limits...vaccinating humans (first those on high risk; farm workers, vulnerables) goes above vaccinating farm animals...

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DJ, I have to rethink my activities on this forum; overload of info...trying to make something readable;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/h5n1-tracking-af/987593-us-dairy-cows-test-positive-for-h5n1-avian-flu-in-texas-kansas-idaho-michigan-new-mexico-ohio-north-carolina-south-dakota-colorado-march-24-one-known-human-case-texas-april-1?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/h5n1-tracking-af/987593-us-dairy-cows-test-positive-for-h5n1-avian-flu-in-texas-kansas-idaho-michigan-new-mexico-ohio-north-carolina-south-dakota-colorado-march-24-one-known-human-case-texas-april-1?view=stream ...mentioning a.o. very like H5N1 more widespread in farm workers...


Bird flu cases are likely being missed in dairy workers, experts say

Experts maintain the milk supply is safe. Their focus is on keeping the people who work with cows from getting sick.

April 26, 2024, 7:06 PM EDT
By Erika Edwards
Dr. Barb Petersen, a dairy veterinarian in Amarillo, Texas, had been caring for sick cows for several weeks in Marchwhen she and a colleague finally pinned down the cause of the illness among the herd: the H5N1 strain of the bird flu.

It was the first time the virus had been detected in cattle.

The sick cows, said Petersen, who owns Sunrise Veterinary Service, tended to produce milk that didn’t look quite right, and had mastitis, an inflammation of the udders.

During that same time, she said, dairy workers — including those who were never in close contact with the sick cows — also fell ill.

“People had some classic flu-like symptoms, including high fever, high fever, sweating at night, chills, lower back pain,” as well as upset stomach, vomiting and diarrhea, Petersen said. “They also tended to have “pretty severe conjunctivitis and swelling of their eyelids.”

Petersen noted that the people were never tested for H5N1; it’s possible that their symptoms were the result of another illness…..



At least 44 others may have been exposed, the CDC said. Some have been tested, while others were asked to monitor symptoms,such as cough, sore throat, pinkeye, fever, headache and diarrhea.

Dr. Keith Poulsen, director of the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, said he’s heard reports of flu-like illnesses on affected dairy farms.

“It’s certainly not a large amount,” he said, “but there’s probably a lot of cases
…..
Our job right now is to protect farmworkers,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University School of Public Health. “We can’t do that unless we know where the virus is or where it isn’t.”

It’s still unclear how the bird flu virus spreads from cows to people, though some experts said it could be through multiple paths, such as contact with milk, contaminated milking equipment, or even respiratory droplets.

“I think everything’s on the table at this point,” said Dr. Andrew…… 

DJ, a lot of H5N1 spread may go without any symptoms...So are 100+ US farm workers infected with H5N1 - most without symptoms-still spreading infection ????

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/usda-colorado-9th-state-to-report-hpai.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/usda-colorado-9th-state-to-report-hpai.html  and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/colorado-becomes-the-9th-state-where-h5n1-has-been-found-in-america-infecting-dairy-cows-another-eight-states-under-investigations[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/colorado-becomes-the-9th-state-where-h5n1-has-been-found-in-america-infecting-dairy-cows-another-eight-states-under-investigations 

DJ, more testing itself will result in finding more cases...but is H5N1 also still spreading ? 

The only type of milk I’m drinking now is ULTRA-PASTEURIZED milk, heated to 280 degrees F, compared to just 161 F for conventional pasteurized milk. Like , I’m pausing regular pasteurized milk. And definitely no raw milk. (Available at Aldi) https://aldi.us/products/dairy-eggs/milk-milk-substitutes/detail/ps/p/friendly-farms-lactose-free-2-percent-milk/

DJ, I like ALDI-keeping things simple...oat milk may be a good alternative...(no cows involved...) 









H5N1: FDA 'identifying  the risk of infection to humans via oral consumption' Gaps in knowledge include 'identifying the risk of infection to humans via oral consumption and validating that existing pasteurization methods can inactivate H5N1.'

DJ, detecting "parts of H5N1 virus" in milk may not mean those "parts" are a risk ???








1/ Are you struggling to keep track of all the #H5N1 developments in the US? Together w/  & , we started an open-access timeline of key events related to the outbreak. As you can see, the situation is rapidly progressing, so we will keep updating.

link; [url]https://twitter.com/svscarpino/status/1783926319991976250/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/svscarpino/status/1783926319991976250/photo/1 

DJ-A lot of US info only looking at US developments...so far human H5N1 infections most were detected in SE Asia...NOT in the US ! 

My -non expert- view;

-We need to increase (good) testing in ALL mammals...

-H5N1 "may be everywhere"-by now did spread from birds into "a lot of wild mammals"

-A/mild-symptomatic spread is easy to miss-but may result in spreading H5N1 further

-CoViD is NOT over-immunity in humans is "a problem" -can we find out a corelation between CoViD infections followed by H5N1 infections ? What role does immunity-gap play ? 








ð™ƒ5ð™‰1 ð™–ð™£ð™™ ð™Žð˜¼ð™ð™Ž-ð˜¾ð™Šð™‘-2, "ð˜½ð™§ð™¤ð™©ð™ð™šð™§ð™¨ ð™žð™£ ð™–ð™§ð™¢ð™¨" ? "ð˜šð˜¶ð˜±ð˜±ð˜³ð˜¦ð˜´ð˜´ð˜ªð˜°ð˜¯ ð˜°ð˜§ ð˜Šð˜ºð˜µð˜°ð˜µð˜°ð˜¹ð˜ªð˜¤ 𘛠ð˜Šð˜¦ð˜­ð˜­ ð˜ð˜¶ð˜¯ð˜¤ð˜µð˜ªð˜°ð˜¯ð˜´ ð˜¢ð˜¯ð˜¥ ð˜‹ð˜¦ð˜¤ð˜³ð˜¦ð˜¢ð˜´ð˜¦ð˜¥ ð˜“ð˜¦ð˜·ð˜¦ð˜­ð˜´ ð˜°ð˜§ ð˜›ð˜ªð˜´ð˜´ð˜¶ð˜¦ ð˜™ð˜¦ð˜´ð˜ªð˜¥ð˜¦ð˜¯ð˜µ ð˜”ð˜¦ð˜®ð˜°ð˜³ð˜º 𘛠ð˜¤ð˜¦ð˜­ð˜­"

link; [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.09.901132v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.09.901132v1 ;

Despite robust T cell responses in the lungs, H5N1 (2:6) infected mice showed inefficient and delayed viral clearance as compared to H1N1 infected mice. 

In addition, we observed higher levels of inhibitory signals including increased PD1 and IL-10 expression by cytotoxic T cells in H5N1 (2:6) infected mice, suggesting that delayed viral clearance of H5N1 (2:6) was due to suppression of T cell functions in vivo

Importantly, H5N1 (2:6) infected mice displayed decreased numbers of tissue resident memory T cells as compared to H1N1 infected mice; however, despite decreased number of tissue resident memory T cells, H5N1 (2:6) were protected against a heterologous challenge from H3N2 virus (X31). 

Taken together, our study provides mechanistic insight for the prolonged viral replication and protracted illness observed in H5N1 infected patients.

DJ, Pandemics by definition are GLOBAL problems, by definition URGENT problems...So I welcome protests against more NATO agression and genocide...Genocide by pandemic IS the outcome if western "leaders" keep pushing for more wars...

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post 1 India H5N1

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/media-reports-of-bird-flu-outbreak-in.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/media-reports-of-bird-flu-outbreak-in.html ;

With the very strong caveat that the Indian press has a tendency towards hyperbole, and that their scientific accuracy is sometimes less that stellar, overnight India's Hindi and English press have been filled with reports of a large outbreak of `bird flu' at a government run poultry farm in Ranchi, Jharkhand, with reports of possible human infections. 

-

Typical of these reports is the following from the Times of India:

Bird flu outbreak in Jharkhand; 2 doctors, 6 others quarantined in Ranchi

TOI City Desk / TIMESOFINDIA.COM / Updated: Apr 28, 2024, 10:30 IST

According to this report, `Officials have reported that the JSIA government building has been converted into a ward for bird flu.'   While this article refers to `infected people' it isn't clear on what basis that determination was made. 

You'll find similar accounts at:


Jharkhand: Two Doctors, Six Others Quarantined Amid Bird Flu Outbreak in Ranchi

Quarantine Measures Implemented Amid Bird Flu Outbreak in Ranchi, Jharkhand

And FluTrackers has a thread of reports on this event, which should be updated throughout the day.

DJ See also [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-h5n1-human-outbreak-reported-in-ranchi-in-jharkhand-state-india-with-6-individuals-and-2-doctors-quarantined-in-a-makeshift-bird-flu-ward[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-h5n1-human-outbreak-reported-in-ranchi-in-jharkhand-state-india-with-6-individuals-and-2-doctors-quarantined-in-a-makeshift-bird-flu-ward  ;

Human-to-human spread ? (With further links...)

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/h5n1-tracking-ah/india-tracking-by-state-territory/jharkhand/989654-jharkhand-two-doctors-six-others-quarantined-amid-bird-flu-outbreak-in-ranchi-author-img-by-ani-published[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/h5n1-tracking-ah/india-tracking-by-state-territory/jharkhand/989654-jharkhand-two-doctors-six-others-quarantined-amid-bird-flu-outbreak-in-ranchi-author-img-by-ani-published ;

Ranchi: Bird flu has been confirmed in the regional poultry farm of the Animal Husbandry Department located at Hotwar in the capital Ranchi. After this, the entire area has been sanitized, while today the team of doctors from RIMS went to the regional poultry farm and also checked the health of the employees and veterinarians there.
Animal Husbandry Officer of Ranchi, Dr. Anil Kumar said that the team of RIMS, along with two veterinary doctors Dr. Dhananjay Kumar Sinha and Dr. Lalan Kumar Baidya serving in the poultry sector, employees Ashish Kumar Suraj Gadi, Sanjay Nayak, Budhwa Kachhap and Ashok Prasad Singh. The sample has been taken for testing.
Dr. Anil Kumar said that a quarantine center has been built in the regional poultry farm itself. All the veterinary doctors and employees whose samples have been taken to test for bird flu infection will remain quarantined until their reports come...

DJ, unclear info...very likely some farm workers/vets developed symptoms ??? Now waiting for an outcome of further testing ? 

[url]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/bird-flu-outbreak-in-jharkhand-2-doctors-6-others-quarantined-in-ranchi/articleshow/109660365.cms[/url] or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/bird-flu-outbreak-in-jharkhand-2-doctors-6-others-quarantined-in-ranchi/articleshow/109660365.cms ;

DJ ????

Lot of unclear (non)info...[url]https://health.liveuamap.com/[/url] or https://health.liveuamap.com/ ...

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post 2 US cow H5N1 mutations...

Detecting mutation in #H5N1 sequence from cow, associated w/ resistance neuraminidase inhibitor is significant concern; needs to be monitored very closely. Also imp to know if cows are being treated w/ drugs (was mutated sample collected before or after treatment)? 

The US SNS for influenza antivirals is primarily NAIs. The specific mutation has been seen in this strain of H5N1 among birds. It's more assoc with resistance to zanamivir and peramivir; it may also reduce sens to oseltamivir. If this mutation spreads from cow to cow or to humans, it could mean we even fewer treatment options. 

1. critical for USG to purchase more Xofluza/Baloxavir to diversify stockpile holdings (was needed even before current outbreak) 
2. critical for USG to accelerate development of additional flu antivirals 
3. critical for USG to accelerate development of host-targeted immune modulators to reduce/manage inflammatory cytokine storm in infected patients 

All urgently needed even if current nationwide outbreak in dairy cattle eventually subsides. H5N1 is not going away & these drugs are needed for seasonal flu, too.

-

H5N1: Reduced susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitors "CDC found one virus from a cow with a marker known to be associated with reduced susceptibility to the neuraminidase inhibitors (a change at NA-T438I)." 

link [url]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2023-2024/avian-situation-update.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2023-2024/avian-situation-update.htm ;

  • Looking at antiviral resistance properties of more than 200 H5N1 publicly posted virus sequences from cattle. CDC found one virus from a cow with a marker known to be associated with reduced susceptibility to the neuraminidase inhibitors (a change at NA-T438I). This change has been seen rarely in the past in H5N1 viruses isolated from wild birds and poultry. The detection of this marker in one of more than 200 specimens is not surprising or concerning at this time in terms of the clinical usefulness of these drugs, but it does underscore why this kind of constant monitoring is important.

also

Seeing a mutation that confers resistance to flu antivirals is a huge concern actually. If this were to spread, it could render flu drugs in stockpile less effective. There are not many alternatives in abundant supply. Historical note, a single mutation occured in seasonal flu viruses in 2008; NAI-resistant influenza A(H1N1) strains were widespread during the 2008–09 influenza season, especially in Japan, where 100% of the strains were resistant to oseltamivir.  Fortunately, when the 2009 H1N1 pandemic swept through, it carried an NA gene that did not have the resistance mutation, reverting flu viruses during the pandemic susceptible to the drug. A close call. This is not something to minimize; something to watch very closely. See this paper below: https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad418

DJ, so the mutation that results in anti-virals becoming less effective only was detected in 1 -out of 200 samples...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-h5n1-strains-emerging-in-cows-possess-new-mutation-na-t438i-associated-with-reduced-susceptibility-to-neuraminidase-inhibitors[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-h5n1-strains-emerging-in-cows-possess-new-mutation-na-t438i-associated-with-reduced-susceptibility-to-neuraminidase-inhibitors 

------------

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/989660-cdc-u-s-case-of-human-avian-influenza-a-h5-virus-reported-april-28-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/989660-cdc-u-s-case-of-human-avian-influenza-a-h5-virus-reported-april-28-2022 ;

CDC: U.S. Case of Human Avian Influenza A(H5) Virus Reported. April 28, 2022


Person Had Contact with Infected Poultry; Public Health Risk Assessment Remains Low

Media Statement
For Immediate Release: Thursday, April 28, 2022, 11:00 p.m. ET
Contact: Media Relations
(404) 639-3286

A person has tested positive for avian influenza A(H5) virus (H5 bird flu) in the U.S., as reported by Colorado and confirmed by CDC. This case occurred in a person who had direct exposure to poultry and was involved in the culling (depopulating) of poultry with presumptive H5N1 bird flu. The patient reported fatigue for a few days as their only symptom and has since recovered. The patient is being isolated and treated with the influenza antiviral drug oseltamivir. While it is possible the detection of H5 bird flu in this specimen is a result of surface contamination of the nasal membrane, that can’t be determined at this point and the positive test result meets the criteria for an H5 case. The appropriate public health response at this time is to assume this is an infection and take actions to contain and treat.

This case does not change the human risk assessment for the general public, which CDC considers to be low. However, people who have job-related or recreational exposures to infected birds are at higher risk of infection should take appropriate precautions outlined in CDC guidance.

DJ, so a second H5N1 human infection in the US this year ???
This is the second human case associated with this specific group of H5 viruses that are currently predominant, and the first case in the United States. The first case internationally occurred in December 2021 in the United Kingdom in a person who did not have any symptoms and who raised birds that became infected with H5N1 virus. More than 880 human infections with earlier H5N1 viruses have been reported since 2003 worldwide, however, the predominant H5N1 viruses now circulating among birds globally are different from earlier H5N1 viruses.

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[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/recent-papers-on-zoonotic-potential-of.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/recent-papers-on-zoonotic-potential-of.html 

Saturday, April 27, 2024

Recent Papers On The Zoonotic Potential of Bat-borne H9N2

While the world is understandably focused on the spillover of HPAI H5N1 to cattle, this isn't the first time a novel avian flu virus has been found spreading in an unexpected mammalian host.  

Twelve years ago, the CDC and the Universidad del Valle in Guatemala City announced the first discovery of a bat-borne influenza A (H17) virus collected from little yellow-shouldered bats (Sturnira lilium) captured at two locations in Guatemala (see A New Flu Comes Up To Bat).

Two years later (2013), another new subtype (H18N11) was identified in South American bats (see PLoS Pathogens: New World Bats Harbor Diverse Flu Strains), leading to speculation that these mammalian-adapted flu viruses might someday jump to other species – including man.

In 2015 PLoS One published Serological Evidence of Influenza A Viruses in Frugivorous Bats from Africa - which described serological evidence of prior H9 influenza infection in bats tested in Ghana - raising new questions about the range of flu viruses carried by bats.

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Despite the virus having an avian virus–like preference for α2,3 sialic acid receptors, it is unable to replicate in male mallard ducks; however, it readily infects ex-vivo human respiratory cell cultures and replicates in the lungs of female mice. A/bat/Egypt/381OP/2017 replicates in the upper respiratory tract of experimentally-infected male ferrets featuring direct-contact and airborne transmission.

These data suggest that the bat A(H9N2) virus has features associated with increased risk to humans without a shift to a preference for α2,6 sialic acid receptors.

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While H9N2 (either avian or bat-borne) may seem pretty far down our list of pandemic concerns, we have an astonishingly bad track record of reading the tea leaves and predicting the next big public health threat.  

The H5N1 virus currently looms large, but the speed of viral evolution (particularly via reassortment) is such that we can easily be blindsided by a threat we never saw coming.

In the second half of the last century it was widely believed that - due to advances in modern medicine - that infectious diseases were largely conquered, and pandemics were a relic of the past.  Our going 40+ years between pandemics (1968 to 2009) - with both of them relatively mild -  only reinforced that idea. 

But the last interpandemic period was less than a decade (2010 to 2020), and COVID was severe enough to kill tens of millions around the globe. And now, a year after COVID was declared `over', we are facing a new potential threat with H5N1. 

Last fall, in BMJ Global: Historical Trends Demonstrate a Pattern of Increasingly Frequent & Severe Zoonotic Spillover Events, the authors suggested `. . . that the series of recent epidemics sparked by zoonotic spillover are not an aberration or random cluster, but follow a multi-decade trend in which spillover-driven epidemics have become both larger and more frequent.'

Which means that even if we are lucky enough that H5N1 fizzles, there is almost certainly another pandemic contender in the wings, waiting to begin its world tour. 

DJ...we should have a plan...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 hours 28 minutes ago at 11:43pm

DJ, I try to get a view on main H5N1 items- but "lots of info" not always clear what it means...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/updates-on-h5n1-outbreak-in-ranchi-india-latest-media-report-claim-that-all-eight-individuals-tested-negative-for-h5n1-cover-up[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/updates-on-h5n1-outbreak-in-ranchi-india-latest-media-report-claim-that-all-eight-individuals-tested-negative-for-h5n1-cover-up ;

8 symptomatic human cases, two of them in serious condition...but "no H5N1"????

DJ, in the US cow-to-cow spread of H5N1 is -now- seen as a major problem...How do (holy) cows in India do ? Very likely testing in India of both mammals and humans for H5N1 may be very limited...(Raw) milk consumption -likely a way of H5N1 spread IF a cow is infected- could become a major risk...

Governments often switch to "panic/media control" in crises. 

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US cattle/farmworkers;

Out of 33 dairy farms in 8 U.S. states (+1 dairy farm in Colorado), 23 people have been tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by states. Less than 1 person per farm. This seems a clear answer to the question: “Are we testing enough for H5N1?”

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We’ll never get in front of this outbreak, and learn for the next,  if we neglect to test all exposed workers and all cattle. If we don’t find a way to do so soon, this has a great potential to worsen. Are there innovative low cost, rapid ways to test cattle?

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Replying to 
It's within 6 mo of infection, so theoretically we could test cows for antibodies and see which have been through the infection (and hopefully now have immunity) and which haven't. If the cows haven't been mix-and-matched too much, probably a rep sample from the herd would do.

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Replying to 
Bulk tank milk is collected from all lactating cows multiple times a day. Samples are collected by certified samplers for antibiotics (betalactams) and other quality parameters. The highest concentration of HPAI virus is in milk. This is a simple cheap sensitive surveillance tool

DJ, So there may be lots of ways to increase testing/getting a better understanding on H5N1 spread in the US...Waste water testing in Texas does indicate more flu-viral residu in the water...








ð™ƒð™žð™œð™ð™¡ð™® ð™¥ð™–ð™©ð™ð™¤ð™œð™šð™£ð™žð™˜ ð™ƒ5ð™‰1 ð™˜ð™¡ð™–ð™™ð™š 2.3.4.4ð™— ð™žð™£ ð™‰ð™šð™¬ ð™”ð™¤ð™§ð™  ð˜¾ð™žð™©ð™® https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.04.588061v1 "Zoonotic infections are not limited to rural environments and commercial poultry operations but extends into the heart of our urban centers"

DJ, a theory is a wild bird did infect a cow with H5N1. Milking machines-not enough hygiene ? , Poultry litter ? Insects ?  further did spread it in cows...However NOT via the respitory system (???) 

Since H5N1 is widespread in birds-also in urban area's- it would be very welcome to know more on how H5N1 ended up in US cows....Could it be infected birds do infect urban cats, dogs, humans...but symptoms are mild/miss so "no testing" ???








#H5N1 #LessonLearned - Domestic and Farm cats! Common theme among H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b infected Cats: - Present multiple symptoms almost immediately - Neurologic, Respiratory, rapid decline leading to death   (or compassionate euthanasia) - Pick PB2 mammalian adaptations 

DJ, H5N1 in US cows is (mostly) quite mild...in US cats it may kill them...so far 6 US (farm)cats tested positive for H5N1-3 of them died...

5) Dogs ðŸ• are also “highly susceptible” to bird flu. And the worry is that because dogs are around humans more, there’s high risk of eventual better virus adaptation to humans.

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Not just cats — certain dog breeds (like beagles are highly susceptible to H5N1 avian flu too. And such dogs can facilitate their adaptation towards humans eventually (since more dogs are around people than dairy cows). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20580396/

DJ; there now may be several problems;

-lack of tests that can detect the type of H5N1 in mammals...maybe there were more than one test used in some animals...Not all the tests may pick up the virus...(if cow spread is NOT respitory it may need other methods of testing ? Blood samples ? More time consuming and higher costs...)

-lack of testing capacity...If one has to go for blood/antibodies tests you need lab-capacity...

-lack of a will to test; still voluntary...(unless cows get transported interstate ?) 

6) Regarding PPE working on farms, the CDC also warns that children often have poor fitting PPEs. And many kids work on farms. This is a problem that doesn’t have a good solution. We need to protect kids. Especially on farms

DJ, also eye-protection=safety glasses/shields...Human eyes have "cow-like receptors"-more at risk for H5N1 infection...

The "good news" is H5N1 may be taken more serious...however the main news is very bad; H5N1 is very likely already very widespread -also in mammals- and "on the move" to become a growing risk for humans...

Like with SARS-2/CoViD-19 there are lots of ways to at least limit spread...limit transport of humans/animals...Increase (different) methods of testing in more places-so we at least get an idea of "how bad it is"....

Lots of indications "economy first"...again ! The combination of World War One and H1N1 "Spanish Flu" may have killed 2-5% of the global population between 1917 and 1923...

In todays-8 billion human population; 2%= 160 millon deaths 5%=400 million deaths...and a further disruption/collapse of society...

We have to avoid that ! 

Very likely new forms of H5N1 (or a recombination with a human flu type) could be worse then the H1N1 Spanish Flu...CoViD very likely infected over 4 billion humans...decreasing immunity...

So a H5N1/flu-pandemic would come ON TOP of the ongoing CoViD pandemic and further increase other diseases...so the % of people dying may be even much higher...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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