Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
H5N1 in Polish cats (???) |
Post Reply ![]() |
Author | |
Dutch Josh ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Posted: June 25 2023 at 11:47pm |
[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-flu-spillover-in-cats-in-poland-and-some-important-questions/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-flu-spillover-in-cats-in-poland-and-some-important-questions/ ; By Scott Weese on POSTED IN CATS It also gets me thinking about a few big questions.
The last one is a big one. Right now, we know little about the range of infections in cats (and other species). The risk calculus is a lot different if this is a virus that always causes severe/fatal disease vs one that can cause a range of disease. We are more likely to find severe disease, especially in wildlife and feral animals, because we don’t notice mild illness as well in those species, and very sick or dead animal are much more likely to be caught and tested.
That second group might be really important though. From a population standpoint, a virus that kills consistently and quickly is generally less likely to spread compared to one that causes more mild, prolonged illness, especially if the animal is still moving around and interacting with other animals. So, a big question we’ve had (and one we haven’t really been able to explore well around here yet because of logistical challenges) is whether severely ill cats are the norm for H5N1 spillovers or whether they are just the tip of the iceberg. If the latter, then we have a much greater need to figure out what the risk of spread from them is. DJ, there is still mink farming in Poland...[url]https://www.furfreealliance.com/?s=poland[/url] or https://www.furfreealliance.com/?s=poland [url]https://www.furfreealliance.com/bill-to-ban-fur-farming-in-lithuania-passed-second-reading/[/url] or https://www.furfreealliance.com/bill-to-ban-fur-farming-in-lithuania-passed-second-reading/ besides that borders may not stop virus spreading.... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-possible-h5n1?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-possible-h5n1?view=stream DJ-For now there are lots of questions....Even IF !!! H5N1 would able to infect cats it may not become a major risk for humans yet....However H5N1 spread AND CoViD spreading in mammals is very high risk... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
![]() |
|
Dutch Josh ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/poland-vet-chief-h5n1-confirmed-in-dead.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/poland-vet-chief-h5n1-confirmed-in-dead.html ; Notably, not only has H5N1 been confirmed in 9 of 11 cats tested, these samples have come from three widely separated regions of the country (Tri-City, Lubin, and Poznań).
For now, the $64 question is how these cats are being infected, and whether cat-to-cat transmission is occurring. Stay tuned. and [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/a-brief-history-of-avian-influenza-in.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/a-brief-history-of-avian-influenza-in.html [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-flu-spillover-in-cats-in-polandupdate/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-flu-spillover-in-cats-in-polandupdate/ ; By Scott Weese on POSTED IN CATS [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-9-test-positive-for-h5n1-avian-flu?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-9-test-positive-for-h5n1-avian-flu?view=stream latest; Translation Google DJ, Very likely the most reasonable explanation may be the cats did catch H5N1 from eating infected (and dead ?) birds...No idea how many wild cats, lynx [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynx[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynx and abandoned dogs there are in Poland. Very likely the problem also may be in other East European countries. It DOES increase risks for humans.... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
![]() |
|
Dutch Josh ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
and [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/poland-vet-chief-at-least-16-cats.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/poland-vet-chief-at-least-16-cats.html ; #17,516 We have a brief update from the Chief Veterinary Office in Poland - and while the math is a little fuzzy - it confirms the outbreak of H5N1 among cats in Poland is widespread. Of 33 samples received by the State Veterinary Institute in Puławy - 19 have been tested - and 15 were positive for H5N1. Another positive test has been reported by the Warsaw University of Life Sciences (from Warsaw). While this report only mentions 16 positive findings, they indicate 20 outbreaks have been confirmed, which suggests other samples have tested positive in other labs. Strikingly, positive results have come from as far afield as Gdańsk, Gdynia, Pruszcz Gdański, Lublin, Bydgoszcz and Poznań.
- For now, the exact route of infection isn't known (and may vary from one event to the next), and we've not seen any detailed genetic analysis of the virus. Stay tuned. DJ [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-at-least-16-test-positive-for-h5n1-avian-flu?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-at-least-16-test-positive-for-h5n1-avian-flu?view=stream may provide further updates... My view; the most likely idea is cats can catch H5N1 from eating infected birds...spread from birds into cats-by eating infected birds- may be getting "better"... -So far there seems to be NO !!!!! indication for cat-to-cat(or other pet) spread of H5N1 -The Polish cats that did see testing were very ill/died from the virus...unclear how many cats may have only mild or no symptoms...Most a-symptomatic spread of H5N1 in mammals/pets is a nightmare...it can mix with other virus...become a major risk... -East of Poland is Ukraine/Belarus/Baltics...is it possible to look for cat-spread there ? -Mink-link with the cat-spread ? Do minks and cats have the same kind of H5N1 type of virus ? Could minks be involved ? -How much testing is done on wild animals-foxes, ferrets, lynx, wolves...Is there any H5N1 spread detected ? Or is it ignored ? DJ-Here in NL we have seen quite a lot of H5N1 in mammals...it is "out of control" in (wild) birds...Very likely there must be major spread of H5N1 in other mammals in Poland. Any pigs/swines yet ???? A very major problem may be farmers NOT reporting H5N1 in their farm animals out of fear for economic damage. So unclear how much further the H5N1 spread is in Poland/the region... So far no human H5N1 case detected/reported (possibly via cat ?)....but it does NOT look good...the spread in cats is very wide... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
![]() |
|
Dutch Josh ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-ecdc-risk-assessment-offlu-statement?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-ecdc-risk-assessment-offlu-statement?view=stream (latest); Originally posted by Pathfinder Translation Google ... “Consecutive, thorough research gives us important information,” says the director of the Institute, Prof. Stanislaw Winiarczyk. – Those viruses that were identified in the samples are the closest to the viruses that were isolated from wild birds and poultry in 2020-2023. They show the highest relationship to the virus that was detected in the white stork at the beginning of June in the Tarnów district. Importantly, molecular analysis indicates the presence of mutations that may enhance the adaptation of the virus to mammals. ... https://radio.lublin.pl/2023/06/prze...grypa-u-kotow/ - "The course of the disease is electrifying." Avian flu in cats One of the hypotheses regarding the ways in which cats can be infected with avian flu is that related to the digestive route. – There is an astonishing coincidence in time, because in a short period of time there were outbreaks of infection in cats in remote locations. This would indicate a common denominator, i.e. one or two sources that reached these locations. In my opinion, it could be feed or a batch of infected meat - believes Prof. Agnieszka Szuster-Ciesielska. - [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-flu-in-cats-in-poland-another-update-and-musing-about-causes/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-flu-in-cats-in-poland-another-update-and-musing-about-causes/ ; A mix of these This might be an explanation for some of the “indoor” cat infections. For example, if there’s a cluster of infections in outdoor cats that’s predominantly or solely bird-to-cat transmission, with maybe some cat-to-cat transmission. But how, if a cat is truly indoor only? Well, it’s maybe a stretch but the picture below of cats facing off through a window is one I put on Twitter the other day, as a reminder that indoor cats need to be vaccinated since they can still have close encounters with outdoor cats. For affected indoor cats, if food is largely ruled out, I’d query the household situation, such as are there screened windows or some other way to have close contact with any outdoor cats (or other cats in the household that do go outside). Hopefully the investigation will generate some more information. It’s important for us to know more about transmission pathways and risks, both for cat health and to assess risks to other species (including humans). DJ, Worms & Germs Blog rules out cat food as a main cause...but it could be a mix of infection by eating infected bird(droppings), bird-to-cat spread...cat-to-cat has not been proven yet... [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/ecdc-risk-assessment-avian-influenza-in.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/ecdc-risk-assessment-avian-influenza-in.html So far we've only seen reports of mass cat infections from Poland, but that could easily change. Hopefully neighboring countries are ramping up surveillance, although that likely isn't an option in Ukraine right now.
On Monday of this week the ECDC released timely Guidance: Enhanced Surveillance of Severe Avian Influenza Virus Infections in Hospital Settings, and last week the CDC presented a COCA Call for clinicians on What Providers Need to Know about Zoonotic Influenza. Stay tuned. DJ so a few questions; -Is the spread still ongoing ? -Is it in cats and birds (with white stork virus very close to the virus detected in infected cats) -Other countries (Germany, Denmark) will be testing...very likely may detect spread -How the virus may develop further (in cats, storks, fox etc)? Replying to Poland: 9 cats have officially tested positive for H5N1, but there are dozens of possible cases being reported in Polish press. https://wetgiw.gov.pl/main/komunikaty/Komunikat-III-GLW-w-sprawie-choroby-kotow/idn:2283 DJ...numbers are not that clear 16 or 20 infected cats ? Very likely more will be detected...(but it could stop without getting much answers...). |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
![]() |
|
Dutch Josh ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Brazil: Three cases of H5N1 bird flu in humans under investigation. 128 cases of possible infection notified, 125 cases discarded, three cases still outstanding in Espírito Santo. https://esbrasil.com.br/espirito-santo-ja-investigou-125-casos-de-gripe-aviaria-em-humanos/ -DJ, So far (as I know) Brazil did not detect human H5N1 cases [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932023_H5N1_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932023_H5N1_outbreak --------- [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/cdc-updated-technical-report-highly.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/cdc-updated-technical-report-highly.html ;
DJ...it would be very welcome if more info was available on H5N1 spread in mammals... ---------------- [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-ecdc-risk-assessment-offlu-statement?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-ecdc-risk-assessment-offlu-statement?view=stream latest; Avian influenza A/H5N1 in cats. Prof. Pyrć: worried that there are numerous infections among animals that accompany humans So this virus is becoming more transmissible? DJ...my -non expert- view; H5N1 very likely on its way to become a bigger problem.... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
![]() |
|
Dutch Josh ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/polands-national-veterinary-institute.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/polands-national-veterinary-institute.html ; Missing from this report is any mention of amino acid changes (mutations) that might signal increased adaptation to mammals. Something that has been reported in other feline infections (see EID Journal: HPAI A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus in Domestic Cat, France, 2022). This possibility was mentioned in last Friday's ECDC Risk Assessment (see excerpt below).
I expect we'll get a more detailed analysis in the next couple of days. In the meantime, while a single source has been implicated, it still isn't clear how both indoor and outdoor cats from across a wide swath of Poland are contracting the virus. DJ on the spread; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-ecdc-risk-assessment-offlu-statement?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/poland/975746-poland-media-reports-of-unusual-cat-deaths-june-21-2023-reportedly-influenza-ecdc-risk-assessment-offlu-statement?view=stream latest; Bird flu in poultry meat from shops to dying cats - According to Dr. Cats are particularly at risk of H5N1 infection during the three-year epidemic in Europe, due to the fact that they often come into contact with bird meat. Outgoing and free-living individuals often hunt birds, and besides, many owners feed their animals with raw food, also based on bird meat. So it looks like infected poultry may have baan a major source. Poultry-food to cat spread... Poland did import a lot of agri-culture products from Ukraine. Did the infected poultry also come from Ukraine-missed quality/health control in that way ? ---------------------- Can a dog get cat disease? We asked the vet DJ, wild animals (including street cats, street dogs) eat infected birds and may catch H5N1 in that way...It could result in disease...So far minks did show very major mink-to-mink spread. Other mammals may see less risks for spreading H5N1...(maybe still a risk in droppings, animals eating dead infected mammals ?) If-indeed-most of the Polish cats did get infected via food it may limit risks...Did some infected (imported ???) poultry end up for human consumption ? Or as pig food ? |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
![]() |
|
Dutch Josh ![]() Adviser Group ![]() Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
South Korea: 38 cats dead from avian influenza 40 cats were being protected at a private cat shelter in Seoul, and from the 24th of last month, the cats started dying due to high fever and loss of appetite, and 38 cats died in one month. and [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/south-korea-mafra-press-release-on-h5n1.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/south-korea-mafra-press-release-on-h5n1.html ;
#17,572 South Korea has a lot of experience with avian H5Nx viruses, and takes them very seriously. In 2014, as H5N1 was in a steep decline, a new, highly virulent H5N8 virus emerged in Korean poultry (likely introduced by migratory birds from China or Siberia) that began H5's resurgence, and eventual spread around the globe. In 2014, and again in 2015, dogs on South Korea farms showed signs of HPAI infection (see MAFRA: H5N8 Antibodies Detected In South Korean Dogs (Again)), and in 2018 we looked at a report of H5N6 in domestic cats (see EID Journal: HPAI H5N6 In Domestic Cats - Korea, 2016). Also in late 2016, we saw the outbreak of H7N2 in hundreds of cats in New York City (see EID Journal: Avian H7N2 Virus in Human Exposed to Sick Cats), which spilled over into several humans. Today South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture (MAFRA) has announced the detection, and their rapid response, to two cats infected with H5N1 at an animal shelter in Seoul. - The H5N1 genotype, or strain, in South Korea likely differs from the one in Poland's cats (or in foxes in Finland), but this event could shed more light on how well the virus spreads between cats.
Stay tuned. DJ...so now 38 South Korean cats test positive for H5N1 ? Not that long after H5N1 was found in "lots of" Polish cats..... [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230726002900320?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230726002900320?section=national/national ; SEOUL, July 26 (Yonhap) -- Two cats at an animal shelter in Seoul were confirmed to have been infected with a highly pathogenic avian influenza strain, marking the first infections of the virus in mammals in seven years, the agriculture ministry has said. Cats have been found dead at the shelter in Yongsan, central Seoul, since last month, and tests confirmed that two of them died of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza (AI), according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs on Tuesday. It is the first time since 2016 that the country confirmed highly pathogenic AI cases in mammals. Upon the report, the authorities cordoned off the facility and have implemented quarantine measures. People who have had contact with the cats have not shown any symptoms, and there has not been a human AI infection through cats or other mammals. But the health authorities are closely monitoring them, as the incubation period for human AI cases is known to be 10 days, the ministry said. DJ, H5N1 in Polish cats may be linked to infected raw poultry given as cat-food. However if in two countries far from each other we do see larger number of cats testing positive/dying from H5N1 it may be time to increase monitoring worldwide... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
![]() |
Post Reply ![]() |
|
Tweet
|
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions ![]() You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |