Help! Can anyone help me with a statistic?

Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Printable Version Translate Topic

Does anyone know what is the current mortality rate for humans contracting bird flu WITHOUT getting Tamiflu or a ventilator?  I know the current cited mortality rate with Tamiflu is 50% - 79%, depending on the strain (and how long infected before getting to the hospital), but have there been ANY documented human survivors who received no treatment?  

I ask because I live in Florida.  Our brilliant lawmakers decided not to fund ANY antiviral stockpile, making Florida the only state not to do so.  I am still trying to raise awareness here (to no avail so far).  Is the current known mortality rate about 100% if there is no vaccine and no antiviral treatment?  I believe this is the case.  If so, then what medical personnel would be crazy enough to come to work with no protection except a paper mask and no treatment to offer or take themselves if they contract the virus?  It seems to me that without vaccine or treatment, hospital staff will (wisely) flee when the first case arrives. The rest of the social structure will then begin collapsing shortly thereafter.  Any thoughts?

Will Florida be triaged as unsalvageable when a Pandemic starts?  

Author	Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Printable Version Translate Topic
WordSmith Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Experienced Member Joined: August 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 10	Post Options Post Reply Quote WordSmith Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Help! Can anyone help me with a statistic? Posted: May 22 2007 at 10:03pm
	Does anyone know what is the current mortality rate for humans contracting bird flu WITHOUT getting Tamiflu or a ventilator? I know the current cited mortality rate with Tamiflu is 50% - 79%, depending on the strain (and how long infected before getting to the hospital), but have there been ANY documented human survivors who received no treatment? I ask because I live in Florida. Our brilliant lawmakers decided not to fund ANY antiviral stockpile, making Florida the only state not to do so. I am still trying to raise awareness here (to no avail so far). Is the current known mortality rate about 100% if there is no vaccine and no antiviral treatment? I believe this is the case. If so, then what medical personnel would be crazy enough to come to work with no protection except a paper mask and no treatment to offer or take themselves if they contract the virus? It seems to me that without vaccine or treatment, hospital staff will (wisely) flee when the first case arrives. The rest of the social structure will then begin collapsing shortly thereafter. Any thoughts? Will Florida be triaged as unsalvageable when a Pandemic starts?

fpmagnolia Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: March 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 103	Post Options Post Reply Quote fpmagnolia Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 23 2007 at 4:18am
	I too, live in Florida and I think our law makers have lost their minds! I feel the same way you do about our healthcare workers making a bee line out the door. I would if I were them. I have thought about calling Tallahassee and asking them to allow all who want to buy anti-viral drugs easier to obtain prescriptions from their doctor. I wonder if we could find any if we had a prescription for it. At least we would have some protection for ourselves and family. Do you have any tamiflu?
	LIONS AND TIGERS AND BIRDS. OH MY!!!!

4=laro Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: April 18 2007 Status: Offline Points: 731	Post Options Post Reply Quote 4=laro Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 23 2007 at 7:03am
	Get real, you know the law makers will certainly consider the average lay person to "dumb" to be able to adminster drugs to themselves and their family.

Albert Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746	Post Options Post Reply Quote Albert Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 23 2007 at 7:20am
	Florida may not be a good place to be in a Panflu. I agree in that the mortality could be real high for those without antivirals. Florida's understanding of emergency preparedness seems to really be lacking.

quickdraw Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: August 10 2006 Status: Offline Points: 219	Post Options Post Reply Quote quickdraw Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 23 2007 at 6:51pm
	I ask because I live in Florida. Our brilliant lawmakers decided not to fund ANY antiviral stockpile, making Florida the only state not to do so MOVE!!!!!!!!
	Everyday is a good day and if you dont believe that try missing one.

Dlugose Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: July 28 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 277	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dlugose Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: June 01 2007 at 12:29pm
	http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/biz-plan/news/051107antivirals.html "Given grim estimates of 30% absentee rates, offering employees antivirals as part of a prevention or treatment strategy could appear to be a cost-effective way of both reducing worker absenteeism and bolstering employees' confidence in their company. In a recent poll of 120 preparedness professionals attending the CIDRAP summit on business preparedness for pandemic influenza in February, 37% of the participants (many from Fortune 500 companies), said their firms had purchased or were planning to purchase antivirals for distribution to employees during a pandemic. ... To date, most patients with H5N1 have been treated with Tamiflu. Studies of Tamiflu for use in H5N1 influenza have produced varying results. Two studies of patients with H5N1 influenza in 2004 and 2005 revealed no difference in outcome between those who received Tamiflu and those who did not. However, some of the patients received an antiviral only later in the disease, and the studies were not large enough to produce meaningful conclusions. "The numbers are so small that it's hard to know whether Tamiflu is efficacious at mitigating disease, but it's all we have, so it's worth trying because it has very limited toxicity [poisonous effects]," says Stephanie Black, MD, assistant professor of medicine in the section of infectious diseases at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago. Studies in mice have demonstrated a protective and therapeutic benefit of Tamiflu against the 2004 Vietnam strain of H5N1. However, this efficacy does not guarantee the same result in humans or with a pandemic strain. A 2007 study ofthe effectiveness of Tamiflu in improving the survival rate of ferrets exposed to the H5N1 virus found that giving the drug within 4 hours of exposure (ie, before illness) resulted in 100% survival. When the treatment was delayed 24 hours after exposure, a higher dose was needed to achieve the same result. (H5N1 follows a similar course in ferrets and humans.) "
	Dlugose RN AAS BA BS Cert. Biotechnology. Respiratory nurse June 2013: public health nurse volunteer, Asia