Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Leaders must prepare for pandemic |
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Posted: April 07 2015 at 8:43am |
Leaders must prepare for pandemic
Michael Gerson, Washington Post Of all the things that could kill more than 10 million people around the world,” writes philanthropist Bill Gates in The New England Journal of Medicine, “the most likely is an epidemic stemming from either natural causes or bioterrorism.” Beginning with this blunt and clinical assessment, we are given a detailed picture of the specter that haunts Gates’ nightmares: the emergence of a highly-infectious virus that would spawn global panic, overwhelm the supply of medical commodities, set off a desperate technological race against death, reduce global wealth by trillions of dollars and fill millions of graves. The genetic mutation that would lead to this outcome is not likely to occur tomorrow. It is likely to occur as tomorrows gather into decades. The Spanish flu of 1918 infected about a third of the world’s population and caused 50 million deaths. An elevated temperature in the morning could mean death by dinnertime. The AIDS virus, in contrast, kills slowly and spreads without obvious symptoms — a different but highly effective evolutionary strategy of mass slaughter. About 40 million people have died from AIDS. Like others in his field, Gates describes the Ebola outbreak as “a wake-up call.” This is fair, with the caveat that the crisis is not over. Liberia has demonstrated (remarkably, heroically) that the goal of zero new infections is achievable. Sierra Leone, however, is still seeing transmissions occur from unsafe burial practices. In remote parts of Guinea, traditional healers still resist basic prevention methods. But this killer, even after taking about 10,000 victims, is not the mass murderer that Gates is warning against. Ebola is spread through bodily fluids by people who are highly symptomatic — mainly putting families and caregivers at risk. The disease originated in three small countries with a limited number of travelers to the U.S. And these countries welcomed outside intervention. (Imagine trying to send the 101st Airborne Division to respond to a disease outbreak in Islamabad.) What Gates calls “the next epidemic” is likely to be an airborne virus, turning markets or airplanes — really any congregation of breathing humans — into places of mass transmission. Modern travel would hasten the globalization of death. Following the Ebola crisis, we know one thing with complete certainty: The world would be utterly unprepared for an outbreak 100 times as large. The first and foundational layer of pandemic preparedness is the disease surveillance system in developing countries. During a recent trip, I visited Tanzania’s national lab, which provides test results for 200 health sites and tracks infectious diseases such as measles, rubella, HIV/AIDS and flu. The lab is in the process of upgrading from a BSL-2 facility to a BSL-3 — allowing it to test for Ebola rather than sending samples to Nairobi. The facility would not exist without funding from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and the World Bank, as well as the training of technicians by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The next time a politician sneers at “foreign aid,” substitute the words “disease surveillance” and see if his or her statement still makes sense. Many developing countries lack even the minimal capability to identify outbreaks before they become epidemics. Filling those gaps is one of the goals of President Obama’s essential Global Health Security Agenda. The second layer of preparedness is emergency response — the ability, on a moment’s notice, to provide mass logistics and command-and-control in the midst of chaos. This is a very rare global capability — currently possessed by the U.S. military, NATO, and pretty much no one else. “From the movies,” former White House Ebola czar Ron Klain told me, “you’d think there was some rapid response force of 5,000 guys in yellow biohazard suits ready to deploy. It is not true.” The United Nations and the World Health Organization won’t be ready to play this role anytime soon. All this raises questions of leadership and global governance. If the worst happens, would anyone be in charge? The day before the next epidemic, this will seem a secondary matter. The day after, there will be no other issue. http://www.postcrescent.com/story/opinion/columnists/2015/03/27/leaders-must-prepare-pandemic/70574768/ |
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Buy more ammo!
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cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
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Global Governance... Nail on the head!!!
Margaret Chan director of the WHO. She is where the buck stops and Her head must roll! Her lack luster performance is not the hall mark of a strong leader. She bows down to the leaders of countries and doesn't understand her position. She is the friggen boss of world health! The attitude needs to be... I'm the boss and all countries need to fall into line. What she delivers is pi$$ weak political line towing and fear of upsetting world leaders leaders. The initial response to this epidemic was weak, as a result thousands have lost their lives. The reason why i'm really pissed at all this is, i sat in my bedroom analyzing data with the most basic tools and could easily see this outbreak was going to be sizable months before the WHO got mobilized. We knew this was going to be big. Why the hell with all the medical information available didn't they act when it was obvious??? Blood on her hands!! For those that don't know this bitch was previously in charge of Hong Kongs health when SARS hit. She was involved in what many now see as the SARS cover up. Why she was ever elected to the head of the WHO is beyond me. Third time lucky folks. Lets hope not
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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cobber- I've felt for a long time now that the WHO is too worried about economic impacts of their actions. Except for the poor souls in Western Africa it has not cost us yet but slow reaction on their part during a true pandemic will be disastrous for the entire world!
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Buy more ammo!
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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As with everything else in the world, this comes down to money. Every single decision made above a personal level is an economic one. Having an emergency response team standing by ready and waiting costs money. On one hand we can argue "but we need it", and that argument will stand up to examination when a pandemic hits, but on the other hand we can argue "we can't afford to have this team standing by" and that argument is valid when months and years pass with nothing significent happening.
We can't have it both ways. There is no organization in the world that can justify to its shareholder the pouring of money down a big black hole. And the just in case scenario is a big black hole. It's bottomless. The bottom line is that it is you and me, the taxpayers around the world, that fund the WHO. Each of our countries already makes a financial contribution to the WHO. If suddenly we were asked to triple or quadruple that amount, how can it be justified to the taxpayers, and how countries afford to pay it when the global recession is still going on?
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Kilt-3
Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 04 2015 Status: Offline Points: 1365 |
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An influenza pandemic is imminent.
As a novel virus there is no immunity in the human population and the number of fatalities can be estimated using two variables. 1 the strike rate - we can expect 30% of the population will be infected 2 the rate of mortality - the percentage of those infected who die. Again I think this is 30% give or take. So if we look at Australia 30% of the population is 6 million people infected and 2 million will die. That is conservative - it could well be more and this is just from the flu - there will also be fatalities from the breakdown of the medical system and law and order. TEOLAWKI The UK has 80 million people so that's 16 million infected and 8 million dead. This is just the stuff of nightmares. Think of the USA or China and India and the numbers are off the scale. Bill Gates is down playing the truth.
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Guys we are going to have some sort of pandemic that will kill lots of us. It has to happen there are way too many people and we keep making vaccines that are keeping us alive. Too many people and nature will make a way to get rid of us.
So that is why we are all here we are all hoping to save our loved ones by SIP. That is why we have all our preps. Let us do what we need to do that is keep an eye out so we can SIP as soon as possible. Pandemic will come it is just a fact nothing we can do about it but try and not die. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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You guys have nailed it. Money will always win over preparedness. That's why there are preppers like us - because we know full well that nobody will be able to take care of us in the face of a major pandemic.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Satori
Valued Member Joined: June 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 28655 |
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while yer preppin' for a pandemic may as well prep for this if possible... Asteroid On Collision Course With Earth |
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Satori
Valued Member Joined: June 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 28655 |
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neither the government nor corporations can ever be counted on to tell the truth
Telangana hid bird flu, Hyderabad poultry 'discretely' culled 7,000 birds recently http://www.deccanchronicle.com/150416/nation-current-affairs/article/telangana-hid-bird-flu-hyderabad-poultry-had-culled-7000-birds $$$ talks truth walks |
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Kilt-3
Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 04 2015 Status: Offline Points: 1365 |
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A flu pandemic is imminent - it hangs over our heads waiting to drop
If we don't prepare we will be ploughed back in the ground
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Littleraven1
V.I.P. Member Joined: October 01 2014 Status: Offline Points: 325 |
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Well I have no doubt that when a pandemic does hit our government leaders will get together and find new ways to transport it internationally and across borders just like with the Ebola- stupidest thing I have ever seen. We truly do need to stay vigilant as our leaders are not.
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There's a bad moon on the rise
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Dang I now have all the crap I need for Ebola except for a full face mask. I wear glasses and I would have to purchase special glasses and I don't really want to do that. May just ware one with my glasses!
I try to prep for anything and everything even a hit by a asteroid or Yellowstone going up. But no matter what hits us many of us will die and most likely the net will not work. All in all we will be alone with our neighbors and we need to be able to organize them to help save our lives. |
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