Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
N7N9 may cause pandemic in humans? |
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waterboy
Valued Member Joined: January 21 2008 Status: Offline Points: 8170 |
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Posted: March 11 2015 at 1:58pm |
http://news.yahoo.com/mutating-h7n9-bird-flu-may-pose-pandemic-threat-183117237.html
By Kate Kelland LONDON (Reuters) - A wave of H7N9 bird flu in China that has spread into people may have the potential to emerge as a pandemic strain in humans, scientists said on Wednesday. The H7N9 virus, one of several strains of bird flu known to be able to infect humans, has persisted, diversified and spread in chickens across China, the researchers said, fuelling a resurgence of infections in people and posing a wider threat. "The expansion of genetic diversity and geographical spread indicates that, unless effective control measures are in place, H7N9 could be expected to persist and spread beyond the region," they said in a study published in the journal Nature. The H7N9 bird flu virus emerged in humans in March 2013 and has since then infected at least 571 people in China, Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Canada, killing 212 of them, according to February data from the World Health Organization (WHO). After an initial flare up of human cases at the start of 2013, the H7N9 appeared to die down -- aided in large part by Chinese authorities deciding to close live poultry markets and issue health warnings about direct contact with chickens. But infections in people increased again last year and in early 2015, prompting researchers to try to understand more about how the virus re-emerged, how it might develop, and how it might threaten public health. In this study, an international team of scientists led by Yi Guan of Hong Kong university monitored the evolution and spread of H7N9 over 15 cities across five provinces in China. By collecting and sequencing a large number of samples, they found that the H7N9 virus is mutating frequently, acquiring genetic changes that might increase its pandemic potential. A large number of new genetic variants of the virus have become established in chickens and have spread across the country, probably because of poultry trade movement, they said. Flu experts not directly involved in the research said its findings were interesting but did not necessarily show the H7N9 was changing in ways that made it more likely to develop into a pandemic flu strain. "What we don't know from this paper is the significance of all these mutations that are accumulating as the virus persists and spreads," said Wendy Barclay, an expert in flu virology at Britain's Imperial College London. "This is especially relevant for human health -- does any of this change the pandemic potential of the virus?" In its latest update on the flu strain, the Geneva-based WHO said it "continues to closely monitor the H7N9 situation" and conduct risk assessments. "So far, the overall risk associated with the H7N9 virus has not changed," it said. Yi Guan's team, however, said their analysis pointed to a need for heightened vigilance of H7N9 and for curbing direct human contact with live poultry at markets. "Permanent closure of live poultry markets, central slaughtering and preventing inter-regional poultry transportation during disease outbreaks are needed to reduce the threat of H7N9 to public health," they wrote. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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An LA Times article that says much the same thing -
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-h7n9-bird-flu-china-spread-pandemic-20150311-story.html |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Kilt-3
Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 04 2015 Status: Offline Points: 1365 |
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That bug is close to tweaking its genes to fit human
but H5N1 is much much closer we will have both or more but first I believe will be the H5N1 - unless there is a recombination of H7N9 with a human virus like H1N1 for example anything can happen - a pandemic is imminent
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Pandemics are always imminent, in a statistical sense. Mankind has been having them for thousands of years. However, we have many more people now, and jet aviation etc. makes these occur more rapidly than the past. It's hard to believe that it is two years since I discovered AFT! Nice to be with like-minded folks. Here's a good summary paper on H7N9 from Nature: Basically, China is filthy with the stuff. Also, it appears that H1N1 and H7N9 may have inter-mingled (recombined) in India. I agree with Kilt, we probably aren't far off from a major event. Be safe!
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CRS, DrPH
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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What's happening in India scares the H out of me! Mutated H1N1? God Almighty1
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Buy more ammo!
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