Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Posted: November 11 2015 at 2:01pm |
New SARS-like virus can 'jump directly from bats to humans without mutating, sparking fears of a future epidemic'
By LIZZIE PARRY FOR DAILYMAIL.COM PUBLISHED: 19:53, 11 November 2015 | UPDATED: 20:53, 11 November 2015 Scientists have discovered a new virus, similar to SARS, that can jump from bats to humans, prompting fears of a future epidemic. They warn there is no treatment for the virus, referred to as SHC014-CoV, which can cross the species divide without the need to mutate. But, they caution, it is still not clear whether or not the disease has the ability to spread from human to human. Senior study author, Dr Ralph Baric, at the University of North Carolina, said: 'Studies have predicted the existence of nearly 5,000 coronaviruses in bat populations and some of these have the potential to emerge as human pathogens. +2 Scientists at the University of North Carolina have discovered a new virus, similar to SARS, pictured is the coronavirus that triggers SARS, which can jump from bats to humans without mutating 'So this is not a situation of 'if' there will be an outbreak of one of these coronaviruses, but rather when and how prepared we'll be to address it.' Researchers said their discovery is notable, as it highlights an ongoing debate over the US government's decision to suspend all gain of function experiments on a variety of select agents, earlier this year. The move has put a substantial standstill on the development of vaccines or treatments for these pathogens should there be an outbreak. This virus is highly pathogenic and treatments developed against the original SARS virus in 2002 and the ZMapp drugs used to fight Ebola fail to neutralise and control this particular virus Dr Ralph Baric, of the University of North Carolina SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, first jumped from animals to humans in 2002 to 2003, triggering a worldwide outbreak with around 8,000 cases being diagnosed, including one at the university's Chapel Hill location. Almost 800 people lost their lives during the outbreak. SARS-CoV presents much like flu symptoms, but can accelerate, compromising a person's breathing and lead to a deadly form of pneumonia. The outbreak was controlled through public health interventions, and the original virus was thought to have been extinct since 2004. Dr Baric and his team demonstrated that the newly-identified SARS-like virus, labelled SHC014-CoV, can jump from its host, Chinese horseshoe bats. The virus latches on to the same receptor in the body as the SARS virus, allowing it to be transmitted across to humans. +2 SARS-CoV presents much like flu symptoms, but can accelerate, compromising a person's breathing and lead to a deadly form of pneumonia. A worldwide outbreak in 2003 to 2004 infected 8,000 and killed 800 people In addition, the team discovered the new virus also replicates as well as SARS-CoV in primary human lung cells, the preferred target for infection. Dr Baric, who works at the university's Gillings School of Global Public Health and is an expert in coronaviruses, added: 'This virus is highly pathogenic and treatments developed against the original SARS virus in 2002 and the ZMapp drugs used to fight Ebola fail to neutralise and control this particular virus. 'So building resources, rather than limiting them, to both examine animal populations for new threats a Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3314247/New-SARS-like-virus-jump-directly-bats-humans-without-mutating-sparking-fears-future-epidemic.html#ixzz3rDsdmzta Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź––
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Cool pictures, cheers carbon
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cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
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Long way to go with this one
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Known as SHC014-CoV, this lab-modified chimera coronavirus is currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations and can spread to humans, infecting the lungs.
Disease researchers in North Carolina and China found that SHC014-CoV will "replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV." Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. http://freedomoutpost.com/2015/11/new-sars-like-virus-spreads-from-bats-to-humans-not-if-there-will-be-an-outbreak/ All this points to hybrid SARS SHC014-CoV being as pathogenic as the original SARS in the 2003 outbreak and it won't be long before we see sustained H2H transmission. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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They may be close to forecasting the next pandemic with this.
Note: this lab-modified chimera coronavirus is currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations That means that it's currently here and may just simply need human contact. Wonder how long it's been circulating in horseshoe bats? Is this new arrival waiting for human contact? |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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the next pandemic will not be predicted and will come out of left field
it will kill millions!!!!!! when and where who knows??? just watch and wait with interest......
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź––
Marcus Aurelius |
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cobber
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SHC014-CoV was a wild virus captured for research. They tested it and found its ligans attach to human receptors. Studied and published ... As far as i know it wasn't "lab modified" |
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arirish
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Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate
The creation of a chimeric SARS-like virus has scientists discussing the risks of gain-of-function research. By Jef Akst | November 16, 2015 Ralph Baric, an infectious-disease researcher at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, last week (November 9) published a study on his team’s efforts to engineer a virus with the surface protein of the SHC014 coronavirus, found in horseshoe bats in China, and the backbone of to one that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)in mice. The hybrid virus could infect human airway cells and caused disease in mice, according to the team’s results, which were published in Nature Medicine. The results demonstrate the ability of the SHC014 surface protein to bind and infect human cells, validating concerns that this virus—or other coronaviruses found in bat species—may be capable of making the leap to people without first evolving in an intermediate host, Nature reported. They also reignite a debate about whether that information justifies the risk of such work, known as gain-of- function research. “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, told Nature. In October 2013, the US government put a stop to all federal funding for gain-of-function studies, with particular concern rising about influenza, SARS, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). “NIH [National Institutes of Health] has funded such studies because they help define the fundamental nature of human-pathogen interactions, enable the assessment of the pandemic potential of emerging infectious agents, and inform public health and preparedness efforts,” NIH Director Francis Collins said in a statement at the time. “These studies, however, also entail biosafety and biosecurity risks, which need to be understood better.” Baric’s study on the SHC014-chimeric coronavirus began before the moratorium was announced, and the NIH allowed it to proceed during a review process, which eventually led to the conclusion that the work did not fall under the new restrictions, Baric told Nature. But some researchers, like Wain-Hobson, disagree with that decision. The debate comes down to how informative the results are. “The only impact of this work is the creation, in a lab, of a new, non-natural risk,” Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist and biodefence expert at Rutgers University, told Nature. But Baric and others argued the study’s importance. “[The results] move this virus from a candidate emerging pathogen to a clear and present danger,” Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance, which samples viruses from animals and people in emerging-diseases hotspots across the globe, told Nature. http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/44469/title/Lab-Made-Coronavirus-Triggers-Debate/ |
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Buy more ammo!
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Thanks for that Arirish,
Excerpt taken from Competition and Mutation in H3N2 Phylodynamics page 8 of January 2013 | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Refinement of the epidemiological model, such as the inclusion of an exposed period, can further improve the comparison to empirical data. In particular, the above properties were obtained with a basic reproduction number of R0<3.24, on the upper bounds of current estimates for seasonal influenza. This value can possibly be decreased by considering such an extension. We find that a model with 4 epitopes and a low but variable number of variants per site, an antigenic mutation rate of <10^-5/day http://www-personal.umich.edu/~pascual/Documents/PDFs/ZinderBedfordGuptaPascualTheRolesofCompetitionandMutationinShapingAntigenic.pdf Analysis: H1,2,3 have produced pandemic strains in the past so H3N2 seems a reasonable choice for the current analysis, given a strain of influenza has according to the above paper a antigenic mutation rate of <10^-5/day then expect that over a 12 year period the RNA sequence of SARS 2003-CoV protein would have changed by roughly 43% this would tend to rule out wild mutation as SARS SHC014-CoV protein is 88% similar to that in SARS 2003-CoV. If anybody has a better approximation method I would invite you to comment or improve the accuracy of the above analysis. |
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