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On the possibility of a major earthquake |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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Posted: May 30 2015 at 11:53pm |
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On the possibility of a major earthquake in the Japan-region june 2015
Since both panic and indifference can kill pre-knowledge on what might be possible can limit damage and sorrow. The 8.5 downgraded to 7.8 earthquake http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002ki3#general_summary Japan on may 30 2015 took place at a depth of 677.6 kilometres. Such a deep quake might translate in a stronger quake more shallow. When one would upgrade an 8,5 quake with a magnitude 1 or 2 one ends up with a 9.5 to 10.5 quake. Even a 7.8+1=8.8 quake is a major risk because of the tsunami's it can cause and the following damage to nuclear plants, dam's etc. The idea of deep quakes transferring into larger shallow quakes is based on the domino-effect-chain-reaction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y97rBdSYbkg. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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Deep earthquakes occur quite often. If there is a relation between deep earthquakes and stronger shallow earthquakes statistics should show that. Another question is how to prepare for such a major event. What can history teach us ?
A recent study indicated that Japan might be one of the few places that-geologicaly-could see a very large earthquake. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/15/national/magnitude-10-temblor-could-happen-study/#.VWqxeM_tmkp (Study from Toru Matsuzawa 2012 http://db.tohoku.ac.jp/whois/e_detail/91928e0f02f967b695c85f5f6d53edde.html)
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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From USGS:
Earthquakes that have focal depths greater than 300 km are commonly termed "deep-focus". Deep-focus earthquakes cause less damage on the earth’s surface above their foci than is the case with similar magnitude shallow-focus earthquakes. Large deep-focus earthquakes may be felt at great distance from their epicenters. The largest recorded deep-focus earthquake was a 2013 M 8.3 earthquake that occurred at a depth of 600 km within the subducted Pacific plate beneath the Sea of Okhotsk, offshore northeastern Russia. The M 8.3 Okhotsk earthquake was felt all over Asia, as far away as Moscow, and across the Pacific along the western seaboard of the United States. Over the past century, 66 earthquakes with a magnitude of M7 or more have occurred at depths greater than 500 km; three of these were located in the same region as today's event. The largest nearby event at these depths was a 1968 M 7.3 earthquake, several hundred kilometers to the south of this earthquake.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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When 66 earthquakes with a Magnitude of 7 and a depth of 500 kilometres or more happened the last 100 years how many magnitude 8 earthquakes can be found ? Searching USGS you end up with 91 M8(+) earthquakes the last century. (Searching for M7(+) quakes at a depth 500km(+) ends up with 64 quakes).
One can search for a shorter period when looking if there is a relationship between a M7 at 500km depth and a M8, say within a month. That would not mean that there is another relationship than just the timing, not a proof that one quake is the cause of the other quake.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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The oldest quake in the USGS-archives with a depth of 540 km a m7.3 was in Peru december 18 1921. There was a 8.3 earthquake in Atacama, Chili on november 11 1922. Proberbly not directly linked !
Another search; on april 29 1939 a 7.0 in Primorýe Russia/ China-pacific region, depth 530 km. We can find a 8.1 in Sulawesi Indonesia on december 21 same year. No link ! Third try; At a depth of 610 km a 7,1 in Argentina 14 august 1950. Is there a link with a M8-event ? There are two M8 events, the next day one in China/India border region M 8.6 and another in Chili december 9 1950 M 8.2. But not in the same region or within a month !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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A different approach, is there any relationship between the four M9(+) earthquakes (Chili 9.6 in 1960, Alaska 9.3 in 1964, Indonesia 9.0 in 2004 and Japan 9.0 in 2011) and any earlier deeper event within a period of 3 months and a depth of more than a 100 kilometres in the same region ?
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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Chili 9.6 may 22 1960 = looking for depth 100km(+) febr1-may 22 1960 M1 maybe lack of data, no results.
Try the latest one, Japan 2011....on march 11 the 9.0 Japan quake, the day before a 6.5 in the Bali-sea (Indonesia) at a depth of 510.6 km. Is there enough data for the 2004 Sumatra-quake M9.0 ? There were several deep quakes within in days before the december 26-2004 (UTC=00.58) earthquake; the largest a 5.0 sulawesi-quake http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usp000dbcu#general_summary and several at a depth of around 500 km at december 24 Fiji http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usp000dbcb#general_summary. Also http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usp000dbbv#general_summary a 4,7 south of Mindanao dec 24-2004. That might indicate that there is a relationship between deep earthquakes (sometimes) being followed by larger shallow quakes. (But statisticly two cases is no basis !!!) There might be a link in time between strong shallow earthquakes and deep earthquakes up to a few days earlier. That link is not proof that the earlier deep earthquake caused the larger quake that followed. On the other hand deep quakes do not always seem to be followed by a larger shallow quake ? |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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In my opinion one should make a difference between statistics and science. Even when there is no science based proof of a relation between deep quakes being followed by shallow but stronger quakes if there is statistical correlation governments could chose to deal with that.
It should be possible to calculate-based on statistics-after a deep earthquake what region runs an increased risk for wich period. If science find more information that is welcome. But public interest should be priority number 1 ! Since siesmologist are paid by tax taxpayers can ask responsibility. Why did a government not take action after a deep earthquake ? How much lives could be saved, damage prevented ? (Of course that also goes for hurricane's blizzards etc). Fukushima nuclear disaster was caused first by the quake itself, and did get worse after the tsunami. Realistic scenario's should be the basis for preparation. There is no point in saving costs at the short term when that means spending much more money when things go wrong.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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http://news.yahoo.com/japan-vigilant-big-one-powerful-quake-072043084.html
Japan vigilant for 'Big One' after powerful quakeSeismologists Sunday warned Japan to stay vigilant for the next "Big One" after a powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of the quake-prone nation, injuring a dozen people. Buildings swayed for around a minute in Tokyo and its vicinity Saturday night as the quake struck at a remote spot in the Pacific Ocean 874 kilometres (542 miles) south of the capital, the US Geological Survey said. Despite its power, there was no risk of a tsunami as its epicentre was a deep 676 kilometres below the Earth's surface, the USGS and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/geology/
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95347 |
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With several very deep earthquakes http://dutchsinse.com/6022015-extremely-deep-4-9m-earthquake-near-japan-7-8m-epicenter-location/ and http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002ljp#general_summary the outlook for a major earthquake is not looking good. http://dutchsinse.com/2202015-mystery-of-the-earths-tectonic-plate-movement-solved-by-professionals-the-asthenosphere/
But I do not want to spoil a birthday !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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