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Any predictions on the next numbers?

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Category: General Discussion
Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (Discussion relating to a severe pandemic; Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=31719
Printed Date: August 02 2015 at 5:26pm


Topic: Any predictions on the next numbers?
Posted By: Albert
Subject: Any predictions on the next numbers?
Date Posted: August 15 2014 at 4:24pm
Anyone care to give a guess on the next numbers?   I'm going with 2299 / 1226

Where you at cobber?  

Yes morbid little topic, I suppose it comes with the territory. 


- with Guinea not reporting of course




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Replies:
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: August 15 2014 at 4:37pm
That's a tough one. Depends whether the "China Syndrome" continues and numbers are reported based on real world numbers or political agendas.

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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 15 2014 at 4:45pm
Prediction just as the numbers being reported.   Liberia and Sierra Leone are probably doing their best in reporting, but still probably only at about half of the reality.  And of course Guinea stopped reporting altogether.   Actual total cases are probably closer to 4,000 - 5,000.   Keep in mind.  Guinea is larger than Sierra Leone and Liberia combined, and Guinea is reporting nearly half the cases what they're reporting.  You can easily assume 1200 - 1500 cases in Guinea.





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Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 15 2014 at 6:08pm
2411...1295 on the 19th

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:26pm
If there is linear progression (at around 75 cases per day from the latest WHO report) and the CFR stays at around 55% then the figures are around 2355 cases and 1295 deaths.

With Ebola spreading there should be more cases, so I would guess around 2 400 cases and 1 320 deaths.




Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 16 2014 at 7:52am
9,644 ...5,180

Reported and unreported, presumed.

Are we taking bets?

Hey Poly, how 'bout a pair a concrete tennis shoes? (I was in that movie.)

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: August 16 2014 at 8:24am
Yep i'm sick and jaded...
2000 deaths  September 9

on the 19th Aug i'm at 1265





Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 16 2014 at 3:20pm
New numbers come out tomorrow and first place still gets $50.   I might have this one wrapped up. 


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Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 16 2014 at 3:50pm
2308...1230 then on the 17th.

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 4:50am
11% increase...2360

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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR


Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 6:03am
11% increase....2360

then this story came out

Armed men attacked an Ebola isolation ward in the Liberian capital Monrovia overnight, prompting 29 patients to flee the facility, witnesses said Sunday (Aug 17).

    PHOTOS

File photo: A staff member disinfects the premises outside a hospital in Liberia. (AFP/Zoom Dosso)

    Enlarge
    Caption

MONROVIA: Armed men attacked an Ebola isolation ward in the Liberian capital Monrovia overnight, prompting 29 patients to flee the facility, witnesses said Sunday (Aug 17).

"They broke down the doors and looted the place. The patients all fled," said Rebecca Wesseh, who witnessed the attack and whose report was confirmed by residents and the head of Health Workers Association of Liberian, George Williams.

- AFP/xq

2360 +29

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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 6:21am
The numbers may jump pretty good.   The WHO news regarding the number of cases being underestimated i believe is partially about prepping the public and media for a large increase. 


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Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 8:09am
Are you second guessing yourself Albert?


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 8:26am
Cob - I am.  When the numbers come out, that's the reason why I don't gamble. 


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Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 8:55am
Well, my ante anyways is stashed under my coffee table in a box. The Beatles addition of Monopoly. I too expect that the WHO is soon going to come out with two sets of numbers. Or they will slowly feed estimated numbers into the verified totals. Which would really skew things as far as rythmatic predictions go. Unlike America and other developed countries, its impossible to keep a very accurate account over there anyway. Even the population estimate of 1.1 billion may be way off the mark.

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 9:23am
2675 1290.


Posted By: newbie1
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 9:27am
TOO MANY!!!

I think that makes me an automatic winner!

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Cherish each moment


Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 9:35am
You might not want to celebrate yet. The prize is a timeshare in an exotic location. He won't say where, but Albert picked it up real cheap...

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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.


Posted By: DANNYKELLEY
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 10:05am
2740. 1300

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WHAT TO DO????


Posted By: WillobyBrat
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 10:26am
Never mind the nanosilver.  The only cure for this outbreak starts with nano particles of aluminum and a big aeroplane.


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I like Ike


Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 1:42pm
Is that like a big grain silo? Oh. Never mind.

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 2:42pm
Get ready for a spike in cases from Guinea.  They must be overwhelmed and at their breaking point. 


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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 4:00pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Get ready for a spike in cases from Guinea.  They must be overwhelmed and at their breaking point. 

And where are those who are fleeing Guinea and it's ebola outbreak going hmm? This directly relates to the whether or not Ebola is contagious during the incubation period. If it's contagious during the incubation period there is not a chance in hell they will be able to contain it and keep it from spreading during the potentially long incubation period.


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 4:07pm
The other problem is that they drop like flies and they can't go near the dead bodies.   How long it survives in a dead human host is another question.   Maybe they can approach the body after 1 week, or maybe it survives indefinitely in a dead host.  Now that would be unique bordering on a zombie pandemic.   Let the dead rot - and run fast.   Stern Smile


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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 4:19pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

The other problem is that they drop like flies and they can't go near the dead bodies.   How long it survives in a dead human host is another question.   Maybe they can approach the body after 1 week, or maybe it survives indefinitely in a dead host.  Now that would be unique bordering on a zombie pandemic.   Let the dead rot - and run fast.   Stern Smile


Well the thing is this strain of ebola is not "burning out" due to a long incubation period and a lower CFR than previous ebola outbreaks. This one is different and looks to have staying power as it overwhelms nation after nation in Africa. In the next week to two weeks we will see the direction this outbreak is going to go and IF it remains primarily on the African continent.


Posted By: WillobyBrat
Date Posted: August 17 2014 at 5:37pm
Originally posted by onefluover onefluover wrote:

Is that like a big grain silo? Oh. Never mind.

Yes, under a C130


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I like Ike


Posted By: newbie1
Date Posted: August 18 2014 at 7:17am
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

You might not want to celebrate yet. The prize is a timeshare in an exotic location. He won't say where, but Albert picked it up real cheap...


BWAHAHAHAHAHA
"That" destination may make me feel    I think I'll pass and stay home and hug a turkey!

Thanks Jacksdad - I needed a good laff this am

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Cherish each moment


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 18 2014 at 5:50pm
Well this isn't good.  All chips about to be pulled off the table.  I'll be a little surprised if we don't see a spike in Guinea cases causing the delay.   The odds of Guinea having half the cases of Sierra Leone and Liberia are about the same odds as being bit by a great white shark while watching shark week on tv.   




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Posted By: Johnray1
Date Posted: August 18 2014 at 8:12pm
Albert,excellent advice.Johnray1


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: August 19 2014 at 3:31am
1229 on the 16th

Very close Albert you said 1226

I'll pump out a graph cu soon


Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: August 19 2014 at 4:52am
Messing around with the chart. I started the trend line later, because i think early data was patchy. As we have heard some early cases were not reported.

This new line trend doubles every 30 days. The old one was 35 days. We'll keep tracking it with the two.



Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 19 2014 at 5:50am
Originally posted by onefluover onefluover wrote:

2308...1230 then on the 17th.


Now if Liberia would of just reported the 68 or so new cases that seem to be missing... then Albert wouldn't have just won the timeshare.

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 19 2014 at 5:58am
You were pretty close too oneflu -  Looks like I better start packing for my one week stay at the time share -  in Sierra Leone.   Stern Smile


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Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 19 2014 at 6:33am
Hey just think though. At least we know you'll come back with some accurate information! Well, that is if you come back! Seriously though, they mention that Liberia's numbers are incomplete I think I just read. I figured after the recent revelations of "vastly" under reporting, they'd try to be more accurate or over estimate some numbers not less! Anyway, we're talking Africa and the WHO so I guess prepare for a bumpy ride. By the way. Good Morning everyone.

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 19 2014 at 7:02am
I wish you a Good Afternoon Oneflu!  Though it is a horid one here: rain and wind (I just lost my gazebo).  The only good part is no ebola here, yet.

I don't have any news, just wanted to wish you good Afternoon.



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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 19 2014 at 1:07pm
Afternoon? Well thank you! Then Good Evening! I sometimes loose sight of how far away you really are. It just feels like we're all locals on here.

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 20 2014 at 5:06am
I'm going to go out on a limb here in guessing the next numbers:  2405 / 1322

I'm assuming Guinea is going to report around 50 + cases

Winner gets an all expense paid African safari trip in Guinea.  


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Posted By: DANNYKELLEY
Date Posted: August 20 2014 at 7:12am
10,000/3500 don't. wont win this one

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WHAT TO DO????


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 20 2014 at 4:54pm
oK - one more time.  Apparently we may want to get them in early:   2752 / 1573




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Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: August 20 2014 at 5:09pm
Hi Guys, Ebola numbers have just been posted.
18 Aug 20142,4731,350
This is well above my high range predictions of 30 day doubling. Very scary!

This would have the WHO in a panic for sure! 

I think its only a matter of time and this will hit western countries. 

Start getting ready for economic problems off the back of this




Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 20 2014 at 5:13pm
well done


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Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: August 20 2014 at 9:13pm
Cobber, that's quite a graph. 3000 cases by 30th August! What happens in September?

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If it is to be, it is up to me.


Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: August 21 2014 at 2:18am
Just remaking my PC so i cant get to the Excel file.  Huge rebuild...

Actually, you don't need an excel spread sheet..

This strain of Ebola doubles every month, so if you want to know some rough numbers. Take a calculator and punch in the current deaths or cases and times by two. That's the rough total, then for the next month. Times by two again and you have the next month total and so on. 

The number hit a million deaths by end of March 2015. 

This thing gets out of control very quickly!!!!!!




Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 21 2014 at 3:08am
Thanks cobber, That is what I call simple maths!


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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: August 21 2014 at 7:14am
Yeah, thanks Cobber! Your graphs are interesting to look at and study and play with the curves and compare to simple doublings in a given time etc. my estimates base it more on 25 day cycles with a slight increase each cycle. You're at 4.1 billion 18 months from now. A two year pandemic. I'm at 7.0 billion. Technically identical. Now we all know that the breaks will be put on these figures to some large degree as it leaves Africa but assuming we are unable to slow it down, (and places like Ferguson MO make me wonder just how well we could control it here) and you take, say, Spanish Flu to compare it to, with 5% CFR over two years, and Ebola say an 80% CFR, off the top you'd think well Ebola is 20 times more destructive than a typical flu pandemic but with a little more complicated thought you're like, nope. It's a trillion times more destructive! A 5% loss of the population is hardly noticed. An 80% loss would send us damn near back to the Stone Age. Even the bible would have to be rewritten.

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"And then there were none."


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: August 21 2014 at 7:49am
Good posts.  If this bug get's into Asia, I'm guessing we might see those types of long term numbers and there may be little stopping it.  


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Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: August 21 2014 at 9:39am
Onefluover - you have to remember that a disease needs two things to trigger a major pandemic - a high CAR and CFR. This strain's holding steady at about 60% CFR, but can it infect efficiently enough to kick off an uncontrollable pandemic with the kind of contagion we've seen in West Africa? I doubt it. As we discussed in another thread, genetic immunity alone would make seven billion an impossible figure for one virus - even flu can only infect about 50 % of the population.
If we talk real world numbers, in six months Ebola has infected a very small percentage of the population of the four countries so far affected. By contrast, something like flu moves incredibly fast with a very short incubation period.
You referenced Spanish Flu - during the 1918 pandemic, against advice from every medical expert, Philadelphia held a Liberty Loan parade. Thousands of people lined the streets to watch, and within 72 hours every single bed in the city's thirty one hospitals filled up with newly infected flu victims. It may have killed a much smaller percentage of those infected but H1N1's ability to spread far outstripped anything Ebola is capable of, and that makes all the difference.



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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.


Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: August 21 2014 at 9:59am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

If this bug get's into Asia, I'm guessing we might see those types of long term numbers and there may be little stopping it.  


I agree. This virus would be right at home in many places around the world, Asia included. Imagine an outbreak in many of the poorer areas of the world, like the slums of India and favelas of South America. Ebola in Rio or São Paulo could be even worse than West Africa given the poverty and population density.



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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 01 2014 at 7:15pm
3560 / 1708


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Posted By: rickster58
Date Posted: September 01 2014 at 7:32pm
Based on Sarah's spread sheet (which I hope you have all downloaded), the predicted numbers for September 2014 are

5175 / 2600


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