20% increased death rate now , from 50% to 70% WHO
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Topic: 20% increased death rate now , from 50% to 70% WHO
Posted By: pheasant
Subject: 20% increased death rate now , from 50% to 70% WHO
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 6:17am
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WHO: Ebola death rate increases to 70 percent Health Video Today's Videos - Buy AP Photo Reprints GENEVA (AP) -- A World Health Organization official says the death rate in the current Ebola outbreak has increased to 70 percent. WHO assistant director-general Dr. Bruce Aylward gave the figure during a news conference Tuesday. Aylward said that the 70 percent death rate was "a high mortality disease" in any circumstance and that the U.N. health agency was still focused on trying to get sick people isolated and provide treatment as early as possible. Previously, WHO had said the death rate was around 50 percent. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below. A World Health Organization official says there could be up to 10,000 new cases of Ebola per week within two months. WHO assistant director-general Dr. Bruce Aylward says if the response to the Ebola crisis isn't stepped up within 60 days, "a lot more people will die" and there will be a huge need on the ground to deal with the spiraling numbers of cases. He said WHO estimated there could up to 10,000 cases per week in two months. Aylward said for the last four weeks, there have been about 1,000 new cases per week, though that figure includes suspected, confirmed and probable cases. He said WHO is aiming to have 70 percent of cases isolated within two months to reverse the outbreak. WHO increased its Ebola death toll tally to 4,447, nearly all of them in West Africa, and the group said the number of probable and suspected cases was 8,914. Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia have been hardest hit. Aylward said WHO was very concerned about the continued spread of Ebola in the three countries' capital cities -Freetown, Conakry and Monrovia. He noted that while certain areas were seeing cases decline, "that doesn't mean they will get to zero." He said the agency was still focused on trying to treat Ebola patients, despite the huge demands on the broken health systems in West Africa. "It would be horrifically unethical to say that we're just going to isolate people," he said, noting that new strategies like handing out protective equipment to families and setting up very basic clinics - without much treatment - was a priority. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/W/WHO_EBOLA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-10-14-09-04-47 ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Replies:
Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 7:36am
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"It would be horrifically unethical to say that we're just going to isolate people," he said, noting that new strategies like handing out protective equipment to families and setting up very basic clinics - without much treatment - was a priority." What a nice way of not-saying-it saying it. That is the precise reason of revealing the closer to the truth CFR that everyone else already knows about is in preperation to make the unspoken-of case that the CFR is so high and dangerous to HCW's that it is becoming more a situation of just isolation to beat this. That's how this article reads to me. ------------- "And then there were none." |
Posted By: Schrödinger's Cat
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 6:50pm
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Interesting article. Just a small comment to your headline, Pheasant. The Who's death rate from 50% to 70%, is a 20 percentage point increase, or, a 40% increase in CFR. I'm not trying to be a nit-picky-Math-ninny, but its a much larger jump than a 20% increase. I just want to call it what it is and clarify the % math. Thanks for posting the article, - Schro |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 6:57pm
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I tend to agree - bad math will give you all kinds of shifts in the behavior of a pathogen, but this has likely been running at 70% the whole time. On a positive note though, I read that the latest patient in Dallas seems to be improving. If she continues to get better, we'll be at five patients (didn't go up while my back was turned, did it?) and one fatality for a 20% CFR in the US. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 7:35pm
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Let's hope our death rate is better than W. Africa if not we are in big trouble. However, if we had the number of people with Ebola ill we may be in the same 70% boat. Hope we don't find out! |
Posted By: waterboy
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 7:36pm
| This is OLD NEWS. The actual death rate is 71-84% |
Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 7:40pm
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Which is precisely why the CFR cannot be established until the outbreak is over and the last person passes. The number fluctuates too wildly. ------------- "And then there were none." |
Posted By: Prairie One
Date Posted: October 14 2014 at 7:40pm
Source?? I haven't seen it reported as high as 84%. ------------- Interested.... |
waterboy wrote:Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: October 15 2014 at 8:26am
This puts the grim picture in stark relief:Ebola Outbreak: Liberia Needs 79,940 More Body BagsSource and full article: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-outbreak-liberia-needs-79-940-more-body-bags-n226346 - http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-outbreak-liberia-needs-79-940-more-body-bags-n226346 ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |