A large blast from UNDERGROUND happened along the shores of Rhode Island.... the blast was reported to feel like an earthquake followed by a GAS explosion.

One woman tossed high into the air from the beach, and landed on nearby rocks.

This is obviously an underground methane explosion.

The Earth could be headed for a 'mini ice age' researchers have warned.

A new study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles - and says that between 2020 and 2030 solar cycles will cancel each other out.

This, they say, will lead to a phenomenon known as the 'Maunder minimum' - which has previously been known as a mini ice age when it hit between 1646 and 1715, even causing London's River Thames to freeze over

Ocean Temperatures At Record High

June 2015 was 2nd warmest for the contiguous US

Record warmth engulfed the West; drought worsened in the Northwest; and record precipitation fell in the Ohio Valley.

The  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=tavg&state=110&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - June contiguous U.S. average temperature  was 71.4°F, 2.9°F above the 20th century average, second only to June 1933 in the 121-year period of record. Record and near-record warmth stretched from the Rockies to West Coast. The  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=6&parameter=tavg&state=110&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - average contiguous U.S. temperature  for the first half of 2015 was 49.5°F, 1.9°F above the 20th century average, and the 10th warmest January-June on record.

The  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=pcp&state=110&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - June precipitation total  for the contiguous U.S. was 3.53 inches, 0.60 inch above average. This was the ninth wettest June on record, and marked the third consecutive month of above-average precipitation for the Lower 48. Above-average precipitation was observed in the Southwest, Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast; the Northwest was dry.

This analysis of U.S. temperature and precipitation is based on data back to January 1895, resulting in 121 years of data.

June

Temperature

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2015/jun/grid/temp/tave-anom-201506.gif">
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2015/jun/grid/prcp/prcp-diff-201506.gif">  
June 2015 Temperature Departure from Average (top) 
and Precipitation Departure from Average (bottom)

• Above-average temperatures were widespread in the West and along the Southeast coast, where 16 states were much warmer than average.  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=tavg&state=4&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - California ,  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=tavg&state=10&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Idaho ,  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=tavg&state=35&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Oregon ,  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=tavg&state=42&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Utah , and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=tavg&state=45&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Washington  were each record warm for June. Several western cities set  http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2015/jun/jun2015dailyrecords.png - new all-time June temperature records  during an intense heatwave the second half of the month, including Boise, Idaho where the temperature soared to 110°F.
• The Northeast and Great Lakes region had near- to below-average June temperatures. Above-average precipitation across the region was associated with suppressed daytime temperatures, while nighttime temperatures were near- to above average.
• The  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=tavg&state=50&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Alaska  statewide average temperature for June was the sixth warmest in 91-years of record keeping at 52.4°F, 3.1°F above average. Homer, Alaska had its warmest June on record. Prolonged warmth and dryness and lack of June snow created ideal wildfire conditions with dozens of large wildfires impacting central and southern areas of the state during June.

Precipitation

• Wetter than average conditions were widespread from the Southwest, in parts of the Great Plains, and across the Midwest and Northeast — 15 states were much wetter than average. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=pcp&state=11&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Illinois ,  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=pcp&state=12&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Indiana , and  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=pcp&state=33&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Ohio  were each record wet during June with monthly precipitation totals more than twice the 20th century average.
• Below-average precipitation was observed in the Northwest, where drought conditions worsened due to both record warmth and lack of precipitation.  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=pcp&state=35&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Oregon  had its ninth driest June, while  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=1&parameter=pcp&state=45&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Washington  had its third driest.
• According to the June 30  http://www.drought.gov/drought/ - U.S. Drought Monitor report , 25.9 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up from 24.6 percent at the beginning of June. Drought conditions improved across the Southwest, Upper Midwest, and the Northeast, but worsened in the Northwest and Southeast. Drought conditions remain dire across California, with 46.7 percent of the state experiencing the worst category of drought (D4, exceptional).

U.S. climate highlights: Year-to-date (January-June)

Temperature

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2015/jun/grid/temp/tave-anom-201501-201506.gif">
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2015/jun/grid/prcp/prcp-diff-201501-201506.gif">  
Jan-Jun 2015 Temperature Departure from Average (top) 
and Precipitation Departure from Average (bottom)

• Above-average January-June temperatures were observed from the Great Plains to the West Coast, as well as in  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=8&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Florida .  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=4&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - California ,  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=26&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Nevada , http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=35&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Oregon , and  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=45&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Washington  each had their warmest year-to-date on record. Eight additional states were much warmer than average, including  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=6&parameter=tavg&state=50&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Alaska  which had its second warmest January-June in the 91-year period of record with a temperature 5.1°F above average. The  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=4&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - California  year-to-date temperature was 58.5°F, 5.2°F above average, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous record set just last year.
• Below-average year-to-date temperatures were observed across the Midwest and Northeast, where  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=17&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Maine ,  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=30&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - New York , and  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=tavg&state=43&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Vermont  were each much cooler than average. No state was record cold for the six-month period.

Precipitation

• The  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=pcp&state=110&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - year-to-date contiguous U.S. precipitation total  was 16.53 inches, 1.22 inches above the 20th century average, the 19th wettest January-June on record and wettest since 1998.
• Above-average precipitation was observed across the Great Plains, Southern Rockies, and Midwest where four states were much wetter than average.  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=pcp&state=41&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Texas  had its wettest year-to-date on record with 24.04 inches, 10.70 inches above average. Below-average precipitation was observed across the West, Southeast, and Northeast.  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=pcp&state=4&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - California  had its fifth driest start to the year, while  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5b%5d=ytd&parameter=pcp&state=35&div=0&month=6&year=2015#ranks-form - Oregon  had its ninth driest.

Extremes

• The  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/ - U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI)  for the year-to-date was 45 percent above average and the 13th highest value on record. On the national-scale, extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures and days with precipitation were much above average. The USCEI is an index that tracks extremes (falling in the upper or lower 10 percent of the record) in temperature, precipitation and drought across the contiguous United States.

For extended analysis of regional temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as extreme events, please see our  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2015/6 - full report  that will be released on July 13th.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XMRbYIw0J-0/VbxM9SBcD6I/AAAAAAAARCU/wl3rOICpTKg/s1600/Canadian%2BArchipelago.jpg">

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Dhfb8LqCv70/VbuGykWsBuI/AAAAAAAARAA/V4wia_PQovY/s1600/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif">

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uTxpeoJmvBM/VbuWc3BfGsI/AAAAAAAARBE/iyvK9wv7jZ8/s1600/July-30-2015.jpg">

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rrau7_QZIi4/VbxGqdzDdEI/AAAAAAAARCE/aTl0xsCyWNc/s1600/Greenland.jpg">

[ click on image to enlarge ]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Lwx3UhXEmpg/Vbwq57jfVEI/AAAAAAAARBc/giNknl-id9E/s1600/July-30-2015.png">

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XY34x2_WIks/VbwsKry2BxI/AAAAAAAARBo/Lh9nyqxVbw0/s1600/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png">

[ PIOMAS - click on image to enlarge ]

1. Volume - The image on the right shows sea ice volume as calculated by  http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/ - PIOMAS  at the University of Washington. The image shows that in June, volume was less than 2015 in only four years, i.e. 2010 through to 2013. However, the situation has deteriorated much in July 2015.
    
2. Thickness - Volume is calculated by looking at both thickness and extent. Thickness is looking much worse than it did in the years 2012 through to 2014, as illustrated by above image. In my experience, sea ice thickness now hasn't looked as bad for the time of the year since records began, especially when taking the loss of multi-year ice into account, as also illustrated by above image.
    

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8lXV54EsD-U/Vbwv5heYgWI/AAAAAAAARB0/_G2AgZJ0G7A/s1600/NSIDC.jpg">

[ NSIDC - click on image to enlarge ]

3. Extent - Sea ice extent around this time of year was worse only in about four years, i.e. in 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012, as illustrated by the NSIDC image on the right. The image on the right shows the situation on July 30, 2015, when extent was about the same as it was by that time in 2013. However, extent didn't fall much from then on in 2013, while 2015 features very high sea surface temperatures and an El Niño that is still gaining in strength. In other words, sea ice extent looks likely to take a battering over the next few weeks.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-k1elKu8o6L4/VbuHTm2n0-I/AAAAAAAARAI/1bdv-cOYHoI/s1600/Sea-Ice-Volume.png">

With the number of people living in the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains, and the volume of water they need, having increased rapidly over recent decades - and, with NASA scientists expecting these trends to continue for years to come - the current severe drought combined with thetapping of the Lake Powell's water at what many consider to be an unsustainable level, has reduced its levels to only about 42% of its capacity.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/09/20150916_powell1.jpg">

Forecasting that there is an 80 percent chance of an extended drought in the area between 2050 and 2099 unless aggressive steps are taken to mitigate the impacts of climate change, the researchers said their results point to a challenging - and remarkably drier - future.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N11L10P20150917?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true - As Reuters reports,  scientists from NASA and Cornell and Columbia universities warned earlier this year that the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains regions are likely to be scorched by a decades-long "megadrought" during the second half of this century if climate change continues unabated.

See also http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201508 - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201508  

Patricia Eyes Mexico With Catastrophic Force as Strongest Hurricane on Record

Patricia, a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 200 mph, will bring catastrophic wind and storm surge damage to southwestern Mexico later Friday into Friday night.

According to  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/stormblog/category-5-hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-on-record-in-eastern-pacific/53148530 - AccuWeather Meteorologist Becky Elliott , "Patricia rapidly intensified from a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph early Thursday to a 200-mph Category 5 hurricane 24 hours later." The central pressure of the storm dropped 100 mb during this time.

To put in perspective, a 'weather bomb' in the mid-latitudes is classified as a pressure drop of 24 mb in a 24-hour period.

Patricia became the strongest hurricane on record Friday morning. The estimated central pressure of Patricia dropped to 880 mb, breaking the record of 894 mb from Hurricane Linda in the eastern Pacific set in 1997 and also surpassing the 882 mb pressure of Hurricane Wilma in the Atlantic from 2005. The maximum sustained winds of 200 mph (160 knots) breaks the previous wind speed record from Linda and Wilma (185 mph) for the strongest surface winds ever in the area of responsibility of the National Hurricane Center.

and http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/flooding-tropical-downpours-patricia-texas-oklahoma-central-us/53098639 - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/flooding-tropical-downpours-patricia-texas-oklahoma-central-us/53098639

Also: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/asia-winter-forecast-201516/52956828 - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/asia-winter-forecast-201516/52956828

Asia Winter Forecast 2015-16: Drought to Continue From India to Singapore; Typhoon Numbers May Challenge Record

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses

LONDON, 14 October, 2015 – Scientists find that the combination of global warming and powerful winds sweeping snow off the ice of Antarctica threatens to speed up sea level rise.

Antarctica, the planet’s largest desert, is home to 90% of the world’s ice – enough to raise global sea levels by at least 60 metres. So what happens to its ice and snow is a matter of serious concern to all of us.

One group has just predicted that, by 2050,  http://www.eurekalert.org/emb_releases/2015-10/whoi-nsp100915.php - the rate at which the ice shelves melt will double . Another reports that powerful winds are not just shifting Antarctica’s snow, but are also  http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/3263 - blowing 80 billion tonnes of it away , into the sea or the atmosphere.

Both cases exemplify the challenges of climate research and the construction of projections for the future.

• improve animal manure handling and land application: more methane is produced from intensive animal agriculture than from the oil/gas industry!   If we simply collected the manure, allowed the methane to form under a cover & capture it for fuel, we would make a lot of  progress. 
• improve animal nutrition: many ruminants belch & excrete manure as a byproduct of their rumen fermentation, and there is intense research underway to improve and modify the diet of ruminants so that they don't make so much of the stuff!  
• Change human diet - if we ate more poultry & vegetarian dishes, we could reduce a great deal of environmental degradation.  This is difficult to do in the USA, as we are addicted to red meat it seems.  

The highest daily rainfall in a century. Freak weather conditions on one day. The hottest-ever Indian Ocean. The strongest-ever El Niño. The hottest year on record.

The bad news is that a perfect storm of meteorological conditions combined to create Chennai’s worst-ever deluge last week, exacerbated in no small part by civic infrastructure pushed to its limit and systemic dysfunction. The worse news is, that could happen again, and soon; 2015’s El Niño is on course to being the strongest ever recorded.

Not to mention storm "Desmond" bringing "once in a 1000 years"amounts of rain to Ireland, UK, Norway. That region had this kind of amounts now for the second time in 10 years.

A massive new study by 16 authors has calculated just how much ice the Greenland ice sheet has lost since the year 1900. And the number, says the paper just out in the journal Nature, is astounding: 9,103 gigatons (a gigaton is a billion metric tons).

That's more than 9 trillion tons in total. And moreover, the rate of loss has been increasing, the research finds, with a doubling of annual loss in the period 2003 to 2010 compared with what it was throughout the 20th century.

http://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/ - http://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/features/f0183-leaking-pingos-can-explode-under-the-sea-in-the-arctic-as-well-as-on-land/ - http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/features/f0183-leaking-pingos-can-explode-under-the-sea-in-the-arctic-as-well-as-on-land/

http://www.adn.com/article/20151215/north-slope-permafrost-thawing-more-quickly-expected - http://www.adn.com/article/20151215/north-slope-permafrost-thawing-more-quickly-expected

It’s the climate equivalent of the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico: the rupture of a natural gas storage site in  http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/california - California  that is spewing vast amounts of methane into the atmosphere and is likely to go unchecked for three months.

The breach of the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage site, near Porter Ranch has forced the  http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-adv-gas-leak-20151203-story.html - relocation of hundreds of families , who complained of headaches, nosebleeds and nausea from the rotten-egg smell of the odorant added to the gas to aid in leak detection.

The leak, which was detected on 23 October, now accounts for at least a quarter of California’s emissions of methane – a far more powerful climate-altering gas than carbon dioxide.

Already, the ruptured storage facility has released well over the equivalent of 800,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide – about the same amount that would be generated by driving 160,000 cars for a year, according to the California Air Resources Board.

Dr. Joseph Kaplan (chairman of the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Geophysical_Year - International https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Geophysical_Year -  Geophysical Year ) stated the following in the Popular Science article:

This so-far accidental result (rapid warming of Earth) is already serious, and we must find a means to counteract it. Melting polar ice will make ocean levels rise at least 40 feet, and inundate vast areas in the next 50 or 60 years unless atmospheric temperatures are controlled.

Again, it is important to understand who Kaplan was, the chairman of the “International Geophysical Year”, an exceptionally important event that gathered scientists from around the world to discuss the state of the planet.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-24/unstoppable-california-gas-leak-now-being-called-worst-catastrophe-bp-spill - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-24/unstoppable-california-gas-leak-now-being-called-worst-catastrophe-bp-spill using room under the earth once full of oil for gas-storage is working out wrong.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tornado-photos-damage-southeast-mississippi-tennessee/54388401 - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tornado-photos-damage-southeast-mississippi-tennessee/54388401 and http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-storm-to-hammer-central-us-blizzard-snow-severe-weather-flooding-ice/54352350 - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-storm-to-hammer-central-us-blizzard-snow-severe-weather-flooding-ice/54352350

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-25/east-coast-celebrates-christmas-warmest-weather-record - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-25/east-coast-celebrates-christmas-warmest-weather-record

Reports are beginning to come in of ongoing emergency evacuations of coastal homes flooded by surging waters in this region. Given the 9 foot above normal tides combined with hurricane force wind gusts and 30 foot waves slamming into beaches, sand dunes and sea walls, it’s a situation that is, sadly, likely to worsen as the day progresses.

Many of the Worst Impacts Still to Come

To this point, it’s important to note that, with Jonas still centered off the Delmarva Peninsula, this major tidal flooding that regions are now currently experiencing is just the start. The head of water should continue to build on into late Saturday as it moves up the coastline and into New York City, Long Island, Coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Furthermore, impacts to New Jersey and Delaware should remain dangerous or worsen over the coming hours as winds pile waves and waters on top of already record high tides.

Meanwhile, Jonas will continue to generate heavy snowfall over hundreds of miles on into Saturday evening. The situation, therefore, remains quite dangerous and all residents in the affected areas should keep tuned to local emergency officials for instruction. In other words, this climate change enhanced monster winter storm isn’t done yet. Not by a long shot.

Just off the coast of Svalbard the current temperature is 3.7 C (or 39 degrees F). That’s t http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35397763 - he same reading that Taipei City Taiwan, thousands of miles to the south and sitting in the ridiculously warm Southwest Pacific, saw yesterday . Running along the zero degree Longitude line to 85 North, just a few hundred miles from the North Pole, we find 1 C or 34 F temperatures. Temperatures run near or even above freezing along a vast section of ice-covered waters in the Arctic Ocean above 80 North Latitude and on toward the coast of Siberia. There at 74.5 North and 87.55 East, a freakishly warm northwest wind howling out of the Arctic Ocean is pushing temperatures to -1.4 C (29.5 F and above the point at which salty ocean water freezes). It’s colder now in the hills of North Vietnam at 20.1 North Latitude, 103.9 East Longitude with temperatures there hitting -1.5 C (29.3 F).

This is worth repeating — it’s colder in North Vietnam than it is on the shores of Arctic Siberia. Something, most definitely is not right with the weather.

For some time now scientists and the military – and even some enlightened politicians – have been warning that climate change is our top national security threat.

Now it’s also being called our top economic threat.

Forced migration and climate change are the biggest risks facing the global economy this decade, according to 750 experts surveyed by the  http://www.weforum.org/ - World Economic Forum . The warning was published in the WEF’s  http://greenercities.org/climate-change-economic-threat/ - Global Risks Report  in advance of the annual gathering of global leaders at Davos, Switzerland, next week.

In a bleak assessment published Thursday before next week’s meeting, the WEF said its survey found that a failure to deal with and prepare for climate change is potentially the most costly risk during the next 10 years, ahead of weapons of mass destruction, water crises, large-scale migration flows and severe energy price shocks.

That’s the first time that an environmental concern has topped the list of global risks of the WEF’s Global Risks Report and comes after what meteorologists say was  http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2015/12/19/2015-will-end-as-warmest-on-record/ - the hottest year on record .

“Climate change is exacerbating more risks than ever before in terms of water crises, food shortages, constrained economic growth, weaker social cohesion and increased security risks,”  http://greenercities.org/climate-change-economic-threat/ - said Cecilia Reyes , chief risk officer at Zurich Insurance, which helped develop the annual Global Risks Report.

The survey of nearly 750 experts and decision-makers from a variety of fields, locations and ages was conducted in the autumn of 2015 before the  http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/195-countries-adopt-the-first-universal-climate-agreement/ - global warming targets  were agreed upon in Paris in December.

We are now entering a period in which atmospheres are more similar to those seen during the  http://descentintotheicehouse.org.uk/tag/miocene-climatic-optimum/ - Middle Miocene Climate Optimum  — the last time CO2 measures exceeded a threshold of roughly 405 parts per million (see  http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014PA002653/abstract - here  and  http://descentintotheicehouse.org.uk/tag/miocene-climatic-optimum/ - here ).

http://descentintotheicehouse.org.uk/tag/miocene-climatic-optimum/ - The Middle Miocene Climate Optimum  of 15-17 million years ago was a radically different world. It hosted an atmosphere in which carbon dioxide levels varied wildly from 300 parts per million to 500 parts per million. Temperatures were between 3 to 5 degrees Celsius hotter than the 19th Century.  http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/24-2_miller.pdf - And sea levels were about 120 to 190 feet higher . During this period, the world was still cooling down from the heat of the Paleocene and Eocene epochs. Carbon was being sequestered. And it was the first time the world broke significantly below a  http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6.html - 500 part per million CO2 plateau that had been established during the Oligocene 24 to 33 million years ago .

If CO2 levels remain in this range, these are the temperatures, sea levels, and climate conditions we will transition to and ultimately experience. But time, and fossil fuel burning, is not on our side. For under business as usual fossil fuel burning rates of increase, we could hit the Oligocene threshold within as little as 25-30 years. And even if the current rate of increase were maintained, the Oligocene boundary sits about 5 decades away.

Even If humans quickly stop polluting the atmosphere, potentially keeping a global temperature rise to well below 2°C (3.8°F) compared with preindustrial times — a major goal of the Paris climate agreement — seas may still rise by an additional 9 inches to 2 feet this century, the study concluded. That would trigger serious flooding in some areas, and worsen it in others.

Under the worst-case scenario investigated, if pollution continues unabated, and if seas respond to ongoing warming by rising at the fastest rates considered likely, sea levels could rise more than 4 feet this century alone, wiping out coastal infrastructure and driving communities inland.

The problem would be made far worse if the Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets collapse — something that’s difficult to forecast.

(commentDJ-both Antarctic and Greenland/Arctic region landice is breaking up. Wind is eroding the ice, blowing it in the ocean, layers in landice (with more salt) are melting moving landice-layers above into the ocean-it is not only melting that makes land-ice become sea-ice. Extreme methane release from the Arctic region is making things much worse.)

Madly, as if poisoned by our own culture, we negotiate. The 1.5 C “target” produced by COP-21 in Paris was eclipsed a month after the ink dried on the vaunted agreement. Unlike us, nature does not negotiate. Rather, nature bats last.

On, then, to the simple addition, rounding down in every case (i.e., taking a conservative approach):

1. The most-rapid scenario starts with the current 1 C above baseline and adds about 3 C from loss of global dimming plus 1 degree from moistening of the upper troposphere (to avoid counting the feedbacks twice), plus 11 C from Arctic methane, for a total of 16 C above the 1750 baseline by November 2024. That’ll be inconvenient, as it is much warmer than Earth’s global-average temperature at any time during at least the last 2 billion years (i.e., 2,000,000,000 years). The loss of global dimming is guaranteed by the temperature rise resulting from moistening of the upper troposphere or the rise in atmospheric methane. Civilization will not persist beyond 2 C above baseline, which translates to at least twice that temperature rise within the interior of large continents where grains are grown (thus sustaining civilization)

2. At the slower end of the abrupt-climate-change spectrum is 1 C currently, plus 1 C from loss of global dimming, plus 1 degree from moistening of the upper troposphere, plus 5 C from Arctic methane, for a total of 8 C above the 1750 baseline by November 2034. As above, the loss of global dimming is guaranteed by the temperature rise resulting from moistening of the upper troposphereor the rise in atmospheric methane.

The latter scenario — the “slow” one — takes Earth to a planetary temperature well-suited for dinosaurs, were the transition to take hundreds of thousands of years. It is well beyond the temperature at which Earth has harbored anything resembling Homo sapiens, and it’s quite near the highest planetary temperature during the last 2 billion years. The transition from here to 8 C above baseline will occur more rapidly than any previous known rise in global-average temperature.

http://guymcpherson.com/2016/02/how-hot-how-fast/ - http://guymcpherson.com/2016/02/how-hot-how-fast/

See also http://guymcpherson.com/2016/02/interview-for-press-tv-clathrate-gun-video/ - http://guymcpherson.com/2016/02/interview-for-press-tv-clathrate-gun-video/