Solar Storm Activity

IF a massive CME or series of CME's (as was the case with the 1859 Carrington event) were to take down the grid it would most likely take even longer than months to repair the grid. More likely years as those huge transformers are not readily available in the US and are made in Europe and are made to order. Put it this way if your power goes out and your cell phone won't work and your car won't start then either a Carrington event type CME's has occurred or an EMP. In either case you maybe have a couple days till people start to figure it out that the lights will not be coming back on anytime soon and start panicking and social unrest becomes the norm. 

jacksdad wrote: I heard each transformer is ordered a year in advance because that's how long it takes to make and deliver them. Multiply that by hundreds and the lights would be off for a long time.

Satori wrote: a couple of very good books concerning grid down situations are Last Light by Terry Blackstock and Forstchen's ONE SECOND AFTER

1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm by 2020

Kinda makes you think when you realize that virtually all stores rely on JIT (just in time delivery). It doesn't take much to upset the availability of just about everything.

LOPPER wrote: IF a massive CME or series of CME's (as was the case with the 1859 Carrington event) were to take down the grid it would most likely take even longer than months to repair the grid. More likely years as those huge transformers are not readily available in the US and are made in Europe and are made to order. Put it this way if your power goes out and your cell phone won't work and your car won't start then either a Carrington event type CME's has occurred or an EMP. In either case you maybe have a couple days till people start to figure it out that the lights will not be coming back on anytime soon and start panicking and social unrest becomes the norm.

While a Carrington level event is unlikely, it can absolutely happen and would be all the bad parts of the bible.

Electromagnetic Pulse is a bit overblown. It's not nearly as damaging as the population believe it to be, and in the case that another country that is able to pull it off, does, EMP is going to be the least of their worries because we'll retaliate with Airburst and surface burst nuclear weapons.

EMP isn't as easy as people think it is to make happen either. You have to get a bomb big enough to a very specific altitude to get it to work right, and the countries that could pull it off are few and aren't stupid enough to do it.

Your car would probably still work. Cellphones would be kaput. Water would be safe for about a week in small communities, large cities would have a matter of days before the tap water is unpotable.

I've seen the statistic about a majority of people dying off in two years also, but disagree that it'd take that long. I think that about 50% would be dead in the first four weeks through violence, dehydration, and starvation. The people in the major cities have absolutely no idea how to get water or food without the tap and the supermarket down the street. The foodstores would be bare in minutes, and people would start starving in a matter of days.

Shoot first and ask questions never.

The points?

A great way to understand how Electromagnetic force damages electronics is to consider antenna length. I'll be considering a Carrington level event.

Induced current is directly proportional to antenna length. An explanation of this is that powerlines, transformers, large inductors, etc would be greatly affected, while simple electronics are not as they do not have long enough "Antennas" to significantly pick up induced voltage/Amperage.

An antenna is any receiving medium, be it radio antenna, the wires on the pole outside your house, the wires in your generator, etc.

So while your cellphone is a pretty simple piece of electronics, it has quite an antenna in it. Also the big receiver antenna that receives your cell signals would have the lightning shunt permanently welded shorted to ground.

Cars, on the other hand, have a build in Faraday cage, AKA: The skin of the car. A great majority of the induced amperage would be stopped in the skin of the car, leaving it largely untouched. Meaning most cars would run.

Transformers and power substations would literally explode and catch fire. Transformers are full of oil. If there is enough induced voltage, the coils of the step down transformers on the poles outside your house and at the substations would be shorted to each other, making them no longer stepping the voltage down from 220VAC to 115VAC. They'd heat up and explode.

Once that's happened, all bets are off. We are a short few weeks to being back in the wild west, and there plain aren't enough food producers and distributors around after a massive solar storm to feed everyone, so there'll be a 50% or greater starvation die off event three weeks after.

When I say that Solar phenomena scare the bejeezes out of me, as an electronics kind of guy, that's not a stretch.

The U.S. EMP Commission tested a number of cars and trucks.  Although this was the most comprehensive set of tests on vehicles that has been done, those tests were very poorly done because the Commission was financially responsible for the vehicles, but did not have the funding to pay for any of the vehicles they tested.  The vehicles were borrowed from other government agencies (most vehicles came from the Department of Defense); and the vehicles had to be returned to those lending agencies in good condition.

Those vehicles were tested up to the level that some sort of upset occurred, then further testing was stopped on that vehicle.  In most cases, after the initial upset occurred, the vehicle could be restarted.  In most of the remaining cases where the vehicle could not be immediately restarted, a latch-up had occurred in the electronics, and the battery could be momentarily disconnected to "re-boot" the electronics, and the vehicle could then be restarted.  This temporary electronic latch-up failure mode caused by EMP is something that almost never occurs in automobiles during a typical lifetime of operation.

Only one of the vehicles tested (a pickup) could not be restarted after some minor work, and it had to be towed to the shop for repairs.

Very few of the vehicles were tested up to the maximum level of the EMP simulator.  There was considerable disagreement among Commission staff members about how to report on the testing that had been done.  Some EMP Commission staff members believe that the wording of the paragraphs in the EMP Commission's Critical National Infrastructures Report about the effect of EMP on vehicles is quite misleading.

The news about cars is good. Could some home generators be protected for the same reason?

Everyone seems to base their estimate of recovery time on the assumption that the place where the replacement transformers are made is unaffected by a Carrington level event. Given that solar storms can last for days, that may not be a valid assumption.

LOPPER wrote: Very few of the vehicles were tested up to the maximum level of the EMP simulator.  There was considerable disagreement among Commission staff members about how to report on the testing that had been done.  Some EMP Commission staff members believe that the wording of the paragraphs in the EMP Commission's Critical National Infrastructures Report about the effect of EMP on vehicles is quite misleading.

 

debbiencusa wrote: The news about cars is good. Could some home generators be protected for the same reason?

http://washingtonexaminer.com/lights-out-house-plan-would-protect-nations-electricity-from-solar-flare-nuclear-bomb/article/2532038

interesting video on the EMP threat

http://beforeitsnews.com/survival/2013/06/growing-fears-of-emp-attack-lead-house-republicans-to-draft-new-plans-to-save-americas-critical-infrastructure-2477770.html

may be guilty of some hyperbole

but a solar flare/coronal mass ejection would produce similar damage

and its just a matter of time before our luck runs out

Turboguy wrote: CStackDrPH wrote: I'm not as worried about a terrorist group launching a nuke high into the air to induce a nation-wide EMP, as I think they would want to go for a high mortality rate & would therefore opt to strike NYC, LA, Chicago etc. directly.  This would have a localized EMP event that would certainly mess up emergency communications.   You don't have to be worried. A weapon of the size necessary to get any significant induced current in ground wires and electronics to damage them is *LARGE.* As in, the technology plain out isn't there for them to be able to get that warhead to the altitude necessary. Another nuclear power? Sure, they can do it, but terrorists don't have control of any ICBM launchers as far as I know.   The "Localized EMP Event" you cite isn't really how EMP works. There is a reason that you want your warhead at a specific altitude up before you set it off and line of sight isn't it. The reason it needs to be above that altitude is that's where the Earth's magnetic field's lines of flux are, and you'll have as much of the magnetic field between your target and the point of detonation as possible without being too far out. The E1 pulse is little more than stripped electrons, but you can get significant voltages, I've heard wild tales of induced voltages of 50,000/meter! If that can find its way to ground, wow.   The E3 pulse is what really does the damage. It's a long duration pulse of higher than normal voltages that our transformer system can not deal with. Particularly if the explosion is high enough because then the polarity is positive. I.E. Ground isn't ground. It's the source of electron flow.   While a groundburst or airburst will have an ionizing effect on the atmosphere, it will not create enough induced amperage to damage electronics.

Maine

a state with some common sense

State makes it law to harden grid against EMP

http://www.wnd.com/2013/06/state-makes-it-law-to-harden-grid-against-emp/

Last Light by Blackstock has been out in the US for several years now

can pick up a cheap used copy on EBAY

some articles worth reading

EMP Attack and Solar Storms: A Guide

http://www.truthistreason.net/emp-attack-and-solar-storms-the-complete-guide

EMP Attack and Solar Storms, Part II: Cascading Failures and Nuclear Meltdown

http://www.activistpost.com/2013/06/emp-attack-and-solar-storms-part-ii.html

Gigantic sunspot AR1785 Is Now Earth Facing

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/gigantic-sunspot-ar1785-is-now-earth-facing_072013

how long can you win at Russian roulette ???

Massive solar flare narrowly misses Earth, EMP disaster barely avoided

http://washingtonexaminer.com/massive-solar-flare-narrowly-misses-earth-emp-disaster-barely-avoided/article/2533727

Get a Pedal Bike

Hey Turbo, any truth in the whole " if a car is made before 1980, it should be fine theory" or is it hogwash and most cars should be fine? Just wondering because I'm on the hunt for a car right now and your last post was about how misleading the threat to vehicles is.  I'm ok with older cars if they were kept up pretty well, but I am mostly looking for mid-late 90s or early 2000s models, just to get around and would last going through the Grapevine (in California) and not overheat and die on me. The downside to living 400 miles from home, and still being in California haha.