Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
The Chinese Death Star |
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Saskabush
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Here is the other part of the same article... Context is everything "Here’s something to watch in 2014: China’s debt. Although the odds of a full-blown financial crisis are slim, they’re not non-existent. The flash point is the burgeoning debt of Chinese localities to finance major infrastructure — roads, bridges, water and sewer systems, subways, telecommunications networks — as well as housing and commercial real estate developments. The fear is that revenues from these projects won’t be adequate to repay the loans, resulting in defaults that undermine confidence and trigger bank runs. This would surely rattle the broader global economy.... Meanwhile, he doubts the existing debts will cause a financial crisis. He points out that China’s overall government debt — combining the amounts for the local and central governments — compares favorably with most major countries. In mid-2013, China’s debt was 56 percent of GDP, estimates Wang. By contrast, U.S. federal, state and local debt was about 100 percent of GDP in 2010, according to calculations by Lardy’s colleague, Ryan Rutkowski." |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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China property trusts face rising default risks Business Times (subscription)-5 hours ago |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Saskabush
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For clarity...
This is a google news search using the words 'China' and 'Default'. These are the only 4 news sources reporting on the same story. This is quite a narrow set of search parameters. A broader viewpoint is certainly available. |
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Saskabush
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A more 'neutral' search criteria that includes 'China' and 'economic outlook' yields something quite different-
China Record Credit Growth Boosts Outlook for Economy Bloomberg - Feb 16, 2014 China's Record New Credit Boosts Outlook for Growth in 2014 San Francisco Chronicle - Feb 17, 2014 Asia stocks rally, dollar slips as emerging market fears ebb MSN Money - Feb 16, 2014 China's Trust Assets Rise, Group Says NASDAQ - Feb 13, 2014 all 187 news sources |
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Saskabush
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My point here isn't that I am right and Kilt is wrong. I think the news articles he posts are valid and worthy of consideration.
There is a less gloomy point of view however, that is equally valid and deserving of consideration. The problems facing our world, IMO, are not the sole responsibility of one country. There is no one country that can be pointed to as The Death Star. We all are or have contributed in one way or another. It is unfortunate that unbridled western consumerism has been promoted as being so desirable for so long. It has been made to seem so attractive that we shouldn't be surprised when third world and emerging markets are easily convinced of it's dubious value. Indeed many of our corporate interests have spent fortunes promoting that lifestyle. |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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China is a Bubble in the process of bursting.
My point is you are a troll. So many bad things have come out of China and now a threat to the economy from their Bubble. Possibly the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. The 1956 H2N2 Asian Flu pandemic came from China. The 1967 H3N2 Hong Kong Flu pandemic came from China. SARS came from China. The H5N1 virus comes from China. The H7N9 virus comes from China. There are more, but death to millions from these viruses all came from China. And now the economy is in trouble. China is a Death Star. Now Saskabush - back off and go annoy someone else. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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jade4now
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Saskabush
I appreciate the balanced view always. Thank you |
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Saskabush
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I appreciate knowing that others do... Can get a little lonely on this thread!!!
Again, I'm not seeking to hijack thread although I do admit my emotions sometimes get the most of me and I have posted unflattering comments that have resulted from my outrage... I have turned over a new leaf and only hope to present a bit of a differing opinion. |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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once a troll always a troll
what is it with Canadians?
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Saskabush
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Indeed, bad news can be found all over the world if you go looking for it..
As Investment Dwindles, Australia's Economy Is Lost in Transition Wall Street Journal (blog)-Feb 28, 2014 Economists expect Wednesday's data to show the economy grew a ... pause after its more upbeat-than-expected economic outlook” last month, ... Flash: Australia's capex a setback for RBA - Nomura FXstreet.com RPT:PREVIEW:Focus On Non-Mining Capex As Australia Eyes Survey ForexTV.com all 7 news sources » |
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Saskabush
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Canada as well, although I had to do a little hunting for this and it bears little in common with the economy where I live.
Falling dollar dims retail outlook The Globe and Mail-4 hours ago The weakening Canadian dollar threatens to play havoc with retailers' profits, ... profit and the retailer warns future earnings will be negatively impacted as well. ... To gain economies of scale, Canada's two biggest grocers ... |
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Saskabush
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Misreading China's economic tea leaves Steve Barnett6 Feb, 3:03 PM 4 EconomyChinaGlobal News iMFdirect “Economic Shifts in U.S. and China Batter Markets” continuing “Stocks Slide Globally…Investors Head for Exits” read the front-page headline in last week’s New York Times. Not sure about the U.S. part, I’ll leave that to others. But, as for China, this seems quite a stretch. Could be the pundits are erring in blaming the market slide on China, or perhaps the markets are misreading news coming out of China. The purported China trigger was a survey of manufacturers. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell somewhat, crossing the magic threshold from expansion to contraction. PMIs are useful, but let’s not get carried away. China’s PMI is not the best indicator for growth, the decline was rather small, and January and February data (because of the Lunar “Chinese” New Year) are hard to interpret. In early January, we actually raised our forecast for China’s growth in 2014. Specifically, from 7.25 per cent projection made in October to 7.5 per cent. The subsequently published 2013 data — 7.7 per cent annual growth — matched our expectation and we reaffirm our forecast for 7.5 per cent growth in 2014. So, yes, we see a moderate slowing in China’s economy. This is expected, indeed welcome, as China moves to a more inclusive, green, and sustainable growth path (see China: Why Less is More). Our projection is for growth to slow 0.2 percentage points. This is peanuts for an economy growing at 7.5 per cent. And, given the momentum in domestic demand and improved outlook in advanced economies, growth this year could very well be higher. Specifically, we expect domestic demand to moderate as the government implements its recently announced economic blueprint. While containing the risks from rapidly expanding credit and rising local government debt will put the economy on sounder footing, it will also be a modest drag on domestic activity. This is a good trade-off for securing long-term growth. Thus, buried in our forecasts is a slowing of domestic demand — over half a percentage point — partly offset by rising net exports fuelled by the global recovery. Global markets are understandably interested in developments in China. It is the world’s second largest economy and a critical source of global demand, especially for commodity producers. Continued healthy growth is thus important for both China and the world. Healthy growth, moreover, likely means a gradually slowing economy. Slowing to the fastest sustainable growth rate possible, which we estimate would be around 6 percent on average between now and 2030. In this case, China would continue to boost living standards at home while providing welcome support to the world economy for many years to come. Steven Barnett is a Division Chief in the Asia and Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This article first appeared on iMFdirect. Commercial Family Business Agribusiness Log in to post comments Comments on this article Comments Policy alex lastName, Thu, 2014-02-06 16:22 I don't think the panic is from the thought of a slowing sustainable economy. It may come from the thought that a slowing economy could trigger a property bubble pop, or shadow debt crisis which many people believe are inevitable. Why are so many wealthy Chinese investing in overseas property? Why do so many wealthy Chinese desire to leave China? Is the growth really that high when you take out the redundant developments that will return negative yields over time? Log In to post comments Elise Zhou, Thu, 2014-02-06 17:00 Wealthy Chinese invest in both China & overseas. The recent figure showed there are over 3,000 Beijing residents own 600+ properties in China. In a bid to curb over heated property market/property bubble,the Chinese government recently imposed hefty tax on the 2nd and plus property & properties not owner occupied drive many Chinese investors overseas. For your 2nd question, wealthy Chinese do not desire leave China. But they do desire PR (as many as they can) without losing their Chinese citizenship. Log In to post comments Phil Clarke, Thu, 2014-02-06 22:49 The Chinese investment craze is weird - one can only tackle it piecemeal to try to get a grip on it. Here is one paradox. Western industrial production has been largely turned over to the Peoples Republic of China - a communist state. The Chinese mainland investors certainly do not come from these exploited banks of cheap labour - indeed the conditions are pretty bad and wage levels rather poor. Few could afford decent homes in China. Some even commit suicide So none of the money is coming from the wages paid to workers carrying out tasks for western Corporations. So really who actually is this elite that is exporting the capital that purchases property in Australia - apartments they often leave empty? Maybe we should be asking one heck of a lot of questions... Nothing happens in China that is not scrutinised and controlled by the Government somewhere along the line, so what is really going on? The campaign against corruption and the sheer amount of Chinese investment overseas are not compatable Just asking Log In to post comments Phil Clarke, Thu, 2014-02-06 22:52 Just a rider to my previous post. i had hoped when China Spectator came into existence that these fundamental questions would be tackled - Instead I feel they have been avoided. So how about addressing these core questions? Thanks Log In to post comments |
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Saskabush
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Maybe we like to hear both sides of the argument??
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Saskabush
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Maybe we like to hear both sides of the argument?? Is that a bad thing??? What exactly is a troll anyway? |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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China is a bubble and bubbles burst - but those in power always deny it until it happens
You learned nothing from the GFC A troll is someone who bullies others and does everything possible to annoy people a la tin foil hat insults
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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...a Death Star with a nuclear arsenal, no less!
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CRS, DrPH
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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China heads for first corporate bond defaultA Chinese corporate bond was heading on Tuesday for default, potentially puncturing some of the optimism that has galvanised a booming ... China Corporate Bond Market Likely to See First Default Wall Street Journal-1 hour ago UPDATE 1-China's Chaori Solar says to default on bond interest Reuters-16 minutes ago |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Balance that
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Guests
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“The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.” ― George Carlin |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Well Friday is the day the house of cards that is China gets shaken.
China Faces Test With Potential Corporate Bond DefaultBEIJING—The first potential default in China's fast-growing corporatebond market offers a test of whether Beijing will allow a long-taboo ... |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Saskabush
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All free markets have defaulting instruments. In fact one of the concerns regarding China's market in the past has been that the government back stopped this from happening. As early as January of 2013, analysts have expressed concern about the lack of any defaults. I recently read an article (that I will try to find and post) that expressed concern that this was not being allowed to happen and pointed to defaults as being a positive sign for investors going forward.
All of this is so complicated. The world's economies have become so intertwined. On any given day there are plenty of headlines declaring that the sky is falling. For every expert that puts forth one point of view, there is another that will expound the opposite. I think the world economies are in a mess! IMO though, in the short term, China is not our biggest problem. In the long term, as the demographic, environmental and political challenges come to bear, it may be. My point is that there are alarmist headlines on one side and placating articles on the other. I suspect the reality of the situation lies somewhere in the middle. "China Is Headed For Its First Domestic Bond Default — And Here's Why That's A Good Thing" Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-to-see-first-onshore-bond-default-2014-3#ixzz2v92gvFEc |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Its a Bubble and it is bursting like the US Housing Bubble.
And if you think that was a good thing you are clearly deranged. FYI the Japan Bubble burst in 1989 and now 25 years later they have not recovered. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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More death from China
China reports 3 more H7N9 cases, 1 fatal
CIDRAP-3 hours ago |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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more death from China
Canadian who died from H5N1 flu may have caught it in illegal bird ...TORONTO -- Canada's first H5N1 flu patient may have contracted the bird flu virus passing through or near an illegal live bird market in Beijing, |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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saskabush
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"And if you think that was a good thing you are clearly deranged"
That was just the title of the article I posted not what I personally think or any conclusion I have drawn. |
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Saskabush
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This is another article from CNBC news and not my personal opinion. I think it is a point of view worth considering when weighing both sides of the issue.
"Rare bond default warning in China a good thing" We think it's a good thing as a normal economy needs defaults to better price bonds and other debt products," they said in a note. "There's no need to worry. Let's not underestimate Chinese onshore investors' resilience. Defaults of some debt products are not on a similar scale to a collapse of a major financial institution. "We believe the chance of some bond and trust loan defaults will rise significantly in 2014, especially as the more confident government sees the need for some defaults to develop a more disciplined financial market," they added. — By CNBC.Com's Dhara Ranasinghe; Follow her on Twitter @DharaCNBC |
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Saskabush
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Thank you Avian Flu Talk for trying to provide a forum for the exchange of information. I have ventured in and attempted to contribute. I expected that differing opinions would be welcome. I made the mistake early of engaging with a long established member and disagreeing with his/her opinions. I regrettably characterized some of those opinions as being 'tin foil hat' material and quickly apologized. I have attempted to provide balance to an extreme point of view but instead of healthy debate have encountered something much less positive. Good luck to all. I hope the next newcomer with a different perspective will have a better experience than I have.
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Bond default a "moment of reckoning for the Chinese government"
Yahoo Finance (blog)-7 hours ago China bond default risk prompts others to delay fund raising
Reuters UK-32 minutes ago |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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WillobyBrat
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Ok, I tried to resist this. I apologise, Albert, in advance.
Now - Hoka Hey, Kilt2! Yes, most flu starts in China, but at least they haven't spread it on blankets and given it to homeless, starving people whose land they have invaded. Saskabush is a Canadian not a troll, as are my mother's people. Now I have had time to cool down again and been lectured by Technophobe, here is something else to worry about: It seems, from recent events that viruses can survive in the permafrost and reactivate (ie. become contagious) after at least 30,000 years. Throw global warming into the pot and think how old is the flu virus? What strains of it may be emerging from that environment? (Mahshadin and Carbon 20's posts) Even worse, compatable species of human, namely homo erectus, neanderthalensis and denissovan, have been around for 1,000,000, 870,000 and 840,000 years approximately between them. There is a lot of genetic material in caves and possibly in ice whose owners may have died of flu. Be afraid. Be very afraid. We can't use Ike's cure on them. Ho Hum! |
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I like Ike
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Kilt2
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I am an Aussie.
My point is China is in serious trouble and it will hit the rest of the world.
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Satori
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vindication for Kilt2 ??? China Is Crashing … As Predicted http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-03-07/china-crashing-…-predicted and then there is this Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/chinese-exports-collapse-leading-2nd-largest-trade-deficit-record |
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Dutch Josh
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If the rest of the world was in a good condition any China-crisis would not be a big problem, the rest of the world economy would be able to deal with it. The combination of a slowing down of Chinese economic growth (6,5 % growth is still enormous !) with stagnation of other leading markets is a problem.
I am not an expert on China but the "1-child policy" may have increased wealth in China (but has also many bad things with it, shortage of young new labourforce, the wish to have a boy as the one-child, wich leads to a shortage of over 20 million female-partners). The shift from export to a domestic market, new transport-routes (by ship exporting goods via the artic sea/north pole, but also plans to use trans-Russian railways to export to Europe) and innovations (Solar energy, even though a big solar-company is the first Chinese stockexchange company to go bankrupt, robotica) may get China out of the worst of troubles.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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kilt2-Australia is exporting raw materials to China, Japan etc. A collapse of the Asian market will backfire on Australia. How is the discussion in Australia to deal with that problem ?
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Kilt2
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They are in denial of reality. They are complacent and it will hit Aust very hard.
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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Has China Reached its 'Bear Stearns' Moment?A dangerous build-up of debt and an explosion of risky and poorly ... the country could be headed for a full-blown economic crisis like the one ... Defusing China's Debt Before It's Too LateA long-term solution, although one fraught with moral hazard, is forChina's central government to absorb some debt before a crisis emerges. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Dutch Josh
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Economy using as a weapon is an old strategy. (For instance; in W.W.2 the Germans tried to put lots of false Pounds on the British Market. W.W.2 was in a certain sense the biggest economic war for oil, metals etc. the world has seen so far.) I understand that it could be possible that Russia and China, later on followed by others, might stop using the US-dollar. http://www.infowars.com/economist-warns-of-collapse-risk-will-not-allow-life-to-continue-as-we-know-it/ (for what infowars is worth)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/chinese-exports-collapse-leading-2nd-largest-trade-deficit-record. I would like to believe the world has seen the worst of the economic crises, but I consider things like Ukrain, Islands (and the oil under it) in the South China Sea, as evidence that the world might be on its way for further economic problems. Although globalization means that this world is depending from all countries international trade is based on trust. If trust fails trade fails, in that case we might be turning back to the middle ages .
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Kilt2
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Default threat: Bubble behind the Chinese WallThe Express Tribune-9 hours ago The real Chinese debt-GDP ratio is a staggering 230%, which has spiralled in the last five ... ISLAMABAD: In China, a bubble is about to burst. China Is Crashing. Credit Bubble, Financial and Industrial ... Center for Research on Globalization-19 hours ago China Is Crashing -- As Predicted OpEdNews-4 hours ago |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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nearly 3,000 views of this thread
how good is that? |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
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China has spawned killer flu viruses and now they have endangered the global economy
Death Star indeed |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Dutch Josh
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http://www.wnd.com/2014/03/china-intercepted-missing-malaysian-flight/
A review of China’s recently updated strict rules for aircraft identification over the South China Sea raises immediate questions about a possible Chinese military response to the missing Malaysia Airlines flight that, according to many reports, was last seen over the disputed waters. It is not unthinkeble that China might have shot down (by mistake) this flight near their claimed islands. Other countries have done so in the past (Russia in 1983 a south Korean Boing, the US in 1988 a Iranian plane above the Persian Gulf (wich caused Lockerbie). China is in a position that it can have great influence on economies worldwide.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Johnray1
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Dutch Josh,what makes you think that the Chinese may have shot down this airliner "by mistake". If they shot it down,it would not have been by mistake,communist do not need a reason to take innocent life. Besides,is they had shot it down,there would debris being found over a large area.This airliner in setting on the ground and hide somewhere.The passengers likely executed.The terrorist of the world will use it sometime in the future,unless our people find it first and blow it up and do not say anything to any one and it stays a "ghost airliner". There are so many possible places that it could be on the ground,that I can not count them all. I will believe this until and if there is wreckage and debris found floating in the ocean.Johnray1
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Satori
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China’s premier warns investors to prepare for wave of bankruptcies http://utopiathecollapse.com/2014/03/14/chinas-premier-warns-investors-to-prepare-for-wave-of-bankruptcies/ |
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Johnray1
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Satori,I have been following this also. The Chinese premier's statement to investors to prepare for a wave of bankruptcies,is an understatement. The Chinese economy is imploding and many more are going with them. We will see then if our economy is as strong as I think it is. If we collapse,we will be the last to go and many countries and many very rich people will have an interest in the US staying afloat,including the Chinese.----The biggest problem is that after something like this happens,it is generally followed by a large war. I hate to think of all of death,pain and suffering that is coming to many people and they will never even know why. The war may have been started in the Crimea by the Russians and it will grow from there. Belarus is also now on a war footing,they will help the Russians.This is happening at a time in history when we have a president that has no concept of international politics and also no interest in the welfare of this country. Buy more beans. Johnray1
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Dutch Josh
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Johnray1, I was mentioning a suggestion on internet of what might have happened to that plane. (Being shot down sounds more realistic than "disapearing in an other dimension" or "taken over by UFO's). It remains a strange story.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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