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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

The Next Pandemic - Not if but when

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    Posted: November 10 2017 at 10:58am
For almost 10 years since I was posting on AFT I have been tracking these viruses. At that time Henry Niman and I were talking, but currentlyHenry has disappeared from the face of the earth as far as I know netwise.

I spoke with him about a year ago and he was very subdued and still tracking viruses in Asia where he felt the next Pandemic would arise.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/H1N1-Flu-The-Pandemic-of-2009-1574957

In February 2009 a young boy in the small Gulf-coast town of La Gloria, Veracruz, Mex., fell ill with an influenza-like disease of unknown cause. Within weeks nearly 30% of the town’s residents had been affected by a similar sickness, and people in nearby villages had fallen ill as well. The young boy, however, was the only individual from the region to test positive for a new strain of influenza virus—named swine influenza, or swine flu, because it contained genetic material from existing swine flu viruses. He represented the first documented case of the disease and thus became known as “patient zero.” By mid-March a sickness resembling the one from La Gloria had emerged in Mexico City, and not long after, cases of the respiratory illness were reported throughout the country. After several infected persons died, the country’s health officials decided to send more than 50 patient samples to a lab in Canada for analysis. When 16 of them turned up positive for swine flu, authorities at the World Health Organization (WHO) convened an emergency meeting to assess the situation.

I was online connected to the WHO when Margaret Chan made the announcement. There had been almost two hours that I waited while met with a group - still unnamed consisting of people very powerful that she had to get permission from to declare a Pandemic.

On June 11, 2009, the World Health OrganizationExternal Web Site Icon (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6External Web Site Icon. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.


This is what I heard her say...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611/en/


Statement to the press by WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan

11 June 2009

Ladies and gentlemen,

In late April, WHO announced the emergence of a novel influenza A virus.

This particular H1N1 strain has not circulated previously in humans. The virus is entirely new.

The virus is contagious, spreading easily from one person to another, and from one country to another. As of today, nearly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries.

This is only part of the picture. With few exceptions, countries with large numbers of cases are those with good surveillance and testing procedures in place.

Spread in several countries can no longer be traced to clearly-defined chains of human-to-human transmission. Further spread is considered inevitable.

I have conferred with leading influenza experts, virologists, and public health officials. In line with procedures set out in the International Health Regulations, I have sought guidance and advice from an Emergency Committee established for this purpose.

On the basis of available evidence, and these expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met.

I have therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6.

The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.

Medclinician

The actual video




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:13am
It was different back then. Since the mutation had emerged Smithfield Foods in Gloria, Mexico it soon moved north into the U.S. However, this was in June, not the classic Flu season when this was announced. The worst was yet to come.

Australia prepared for the arrival of the Pandemic.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:17am
Several months ago I began a thread on AFT on the dangers of a coming bad Flu Season in Australia. This was also put up. Something was wrong. There were more cases early in the season and large outbreaks which was nowhere in mainstream media. Except for some press from Australia the rest of the new on Australia was silent. When I did a Google on it my post on AFT was nearly the first to come up with only 2 others. Someone was hushing up a serious outbreak.

http://avianflutalk.com/flu-outbreak-australia-its-back_topic36529.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:26am
And then it mutated and headed for the U.K.

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Published on Oct 22, 2017
Britain epidemic warning: Deadly strain of flu could kill thousands IN WEEKS




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:35am
What is happening and why?  The h3n2 virus or h3n2v has mutated. Is this just a guess or maybe or has it actually happened?

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/uops-hmi110317.php

Public Release: 
PHILADELPHIA - The low efficacy of last year's influenza vaccine can be attributed to a mutation in the H3N2 strain of the virus, a new study reports. Due to the mutation, most people receiving the egg-grown vaccine did not have immunity against H3N2 viruses that circulated last year, leaving the vaccine with only 20 to 30 percent effectiveness.

Scott Hensley, PhD, an associate professor of Microbiology, in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, describes his team's findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this week.

"Our experiments suggest that influenza virus antigens grown in systems other than eggs are more likely to elicit protective antibody responses against H3N2 viruses that are currently circulating," Hensley said. "The 2017 vaccine that people are getting now has the same H3N2 strain as the 2016 vaccine, so this could be another difficult year if this season is dominated by H3N2 viruses again."

Flu vaccines work by priming the immune system with purified proteins from the outer layer of killed flu viruses. This induces immune cells to make antibodies that stop foreign invaders from infecting cells, readying them to attack flu viruses when the body sees them again. Most flu vaccine proteins are purified from a virus grown in chicken eggs, although a small fraction of flu vaccine proteins are produced in systems that do not involve eggs.

During the 2014-2015 flu season, a strain of the H3N2 virus with a different outer layer protein emerged and this version of H3N2 remains prevalent today. The 2016-2017 seasonal flu vaccine was updated to include the new version of this protein; however, Hensley's lab found that the egg-grown version of this protein acquired a new mutation. "Current H3N2 viruses do not grow well in chicken eggs, and it is impossible to grow these viruses in eggs without adaptive mutations," Hensley said.

The team showed that antibodies elicited in ferrets and humans exposed to the egg-produced 2016-2017 strain did a poor job of neutralizing H3N2 viruses that circulated last year. However, antibodies elicited in ferrets infected with the current circulating H3N2 viral strain (that contains the new protein) and humans vaccinated with a H3N2 vaccine produced in a non-egg system were able to effectively recognize and neutralize the new H3N2 virus.

"Our data suggest that we should invest in new technologies that allow us to ramp up production of influenza vaccines that are not reliant on eggs," Hensley said. "In the meantime, everyone should continue to get their annual flu vaccine. Some protection against H3N2 viruses is better than nothing and other components of the vaccine, like H1N1 and influenza B, will likely provide excellent protection this year."

comment: Who caused it to mutate? The people who made the vaccines.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/here-s-one-reason-flu-vaccines-are-so-lousy-they-n818046

Nov 6 2017, 6:33 pm EST

Researchers have identified one more important reason flu shots don’t usually work very well — it’s because they are grown in chicken eggs.

Flu viruses mutate every year and it turns out the methods used to make flu vaccines cause them to mutate even more, the researchers found.

“How you prepare the vaccine can have profound effects on how humans respond to it,” said Scott Hensley of the University of Pennsylvania, who helped lead the study.

It’s one more reason the world needs to develop more modern methods of making flu vaccines, says Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

“We need to get away from the antiquated production model, which the egg is,” Fauci said.

comment: If the current vaccine is not that effective and causes the virus to mutate even more, we very likely could be on the way to a Pandemic as in continues to develop in a more virulent and deadly strain.

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i wonder if the people advocating getting away from eggs have a financial interest in other ways to produce antivaccines.......

just asking ,dont have much faith in business people......aka cancer treatment springs to mind 700% rise in price .............

pity everyone not like Salk
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 11 2017 at 1:17am
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

i wonder if the people advocating getting away from eggs have a financial interest in other ways to produce antivaccines.......

just asking ,dont have much faith in business people......aka cancer treatment springs to mind 700% rise in price .............

pity everyone not like Salk


It is possible.  Here are some dirty fingers I tracked during the last Pandemic.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1176743/Donald-Rumsfelds-controversial-links-drug-company-Tamiflu.html

The drug company behind the swine flu medicine Tamiflu is at the centre of controversy over its links to former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Mr Rumsfeld, a former chairman of the company, has refused to comment on whether he still holds shares in Californian firm Gilead Sciences, which developed the drug now being desperately stockpiled by governments around the world to combat the threatened pandemic.

Last night an associate of Mr Rumsfeld said: ‘He does not publicly discuss his private finances.’

However, should Mr Rumsfeld have held on to shares in the company, he would be a major beneficiary of the surge in the global demand for the drug. The NHS alone has already purchased enough Tamiflu to treat three-quarters of the population in the UK.

comment: I never used Tamiflu. I just fought an infection I caught from my son and wife who nearly died from it and finally got them Tamiflu which saved their lives.

Tamiflu is no longer as effective as it was then.

It may be the other companies want to start and take over the market but still I can see the validity in the egg argument as you look deeper. It is very plausible that injecting it into chicken eggs challenges the virus in a hostile environment and promotes mutation.

If so, we are in serious trouble. We will be creating an over one hundred million people culture medium for the evolution of a more mutated h3n2.

I had this - still have it - and it is similar in some ways to the Hong Kong Flu I had years ago. It just doesn't go away. You think it's done and then it comes back - it drops into your deep lungs and camps. There is also a stomach flu component that makes you have nausea and vomiting. Let's hope there is no neural component which makes you crazy too. That was the super-virus I have been predicting for 8 years and could work with Norovirus by sending it chemical message as a tag team.

If we get this kind of phenomenon again it could real bad. We did have it during the Pandemic where diseases spread together almost working in tandem.

We have a real problem in trusting the CDC to give us accurate data more now than ever. They didn't back then and behind the scenes I was told it was "more dangerous to panic the people than tell them the truth". Also I was told by people from Madison - I knew a nurse who was fired as she uncovered a real issue... and spoke to me.  She had worked for this guy.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/07/controversy-simmers-over-gof-flu-research-wisconsin

Fresh controversy has erupted over influenza research by Yoshihiro Kawaoka, DVM, PhD, of the University of Wisconsin (UW), with a British newspaper alleging in a Jul 1 story that he created a new strain of 2009 H1N1 (pH1N1) virus that could spark a pandemic, and the university branding the story as biased and largely wrong.

In that story and in an earlier media report, a UW Institutional Biosafety Committee (IBC) member publicly questioned the safety of Kawaoka's flu research. Two university biosafety officials fired back yesterday, saying the committee member, Thomas Jeffries, PhD, had passed up opportunities to tour Kawaoka's lab and to learn the details of his work.

comment: Which brings us to a much more interesting topic. When this new flu first hit the U.S. guess where it was widespread the first week of flu season - Guam.  Yea, there is a tasty morsel - why Guam?

Could this be a trace of North Korean dirty viral development fingers?  I mean why bomb Guam when you can give it a nasty flu. Who is going to be able to pin the tail on the Kim Jong-un donkey for a bio weapon?  Who would even admit the North Korea could make one - or if they could  buy it from Iran or other countries with bio weapons programs?

We have not reached "The Stand" yet (novel by Stephen King) where some very scary virus with a 99% mortality rate makes people drop to their knees in hours and perish in a bleeding Ebola type mess. That is the reason the mainstream government (yes there is such a thing) the main propaganda arm which deliberately controls the media and most information releasing leaks to fortify whatever is the desired flavor by the day is not concerned with a Pandemic.

The current flu may kill people but not that many.  Until we get to the magic 5% which collapses the entire U.S. infrastructure they take a Scrooge approach "eliminate the excess population".

This is rather sinister isn't it. We want to believe they are white hats when actually the loss of one third of the most sick, the disabled and minorities would probably create an economic boom and relieve them of billions of health benefits to pay.

Disturbing. Almost as disturbing as what I was told by the person at Madison. "They no longer require doctors to count the CFR of anyone but children because they don't care." They don't anymore. We have not CFR  for two years on CDC on the Internet. It is "don't ask - don't tell".

So if we were hit by a nasty epidemic even, we are not going to know who died. Did we have anything accurate in Australia? No. They are "still counting".

By the time they release information, if we are in trouble it will be too late to do anything. It was like that during the last Pandemic and it will be in the next.

So - we sit and wait - and I will keep tracking this - while I have it. That is always fun. And hope it and my personal case of the flu goes away.  Dream on. It could be a very nasty flu season and also very cold a great environment for people getting it even worse.

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