Panasonic Orders Expat Families Home on Concern of

So Panasonic now as well as making jolly good TVs, and now reputable pandemic experts? 

It's called the rule "averages" when looking at the frequency of past events.  For example,   you can predict the average number of hurricanes each year based on previous years. 

Thanks for the email concerning this story Albert. Truth be told I was getting burned out on bird flu. Looks like I need to beef up my preps like NOW!!
  I tend to think the Japanese are playing it safe and this has nothing to do with the global economy at all and everything to do with a looming pandemic. Just curious what's everyone's tipping point to SIP? Or is it a fluid thing?

Albert wrote: Neil wrote: Albert wrote: It's called the rule "averages" when looking at the frequency of past events.     Random events are behind it all...   Of course the events are random, but you can also predict the frequency of specific random events.  This common random event could in fact be over due.

Duck the matter as much as you like but facts are facts.... Your statement of, 'Time keeps passing, and in theory, we're becoming more and more over due.' hold absolutely no water at all.

To propose a pandemic will occur later this year, because it hasn't occurred over the past X years has no validity at all.

Basically it's scaremongering. A pandemic has not occurred for X years. It is just as likely to not occur again for X years... Not more... Not less... (given the same conditions).

And talking about conditions, lets keep in mind of course there is now (unlike before) active measures being taken against such pandemic out breaks, which if anything reduce its likelyhood. Maybe this is why we are breaking your 'law of averages'.


Also, does no one else find the idea of Panasonic (of all people) having a pandemic crystal ball looking 9 months into the future rather odd?

Thanks for keeping me on the email list Albert even after tossing my loginID:  earwax

Here is the link to the story mentioned above:

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/253916,hong-kong-expert-warns-of-terrible-china-bird-flu-outbreak--summary.html

Oops.  My account may or may not have been punted.  I could not get on for the longest time and now I can log in but it tells me that I have to activate my account by clicking on the link of the email that was sent to me.  I never received one and in fact never tried to reactivate it (unless my brain cell is wrong again). 

It's possible that my account is just in some limbo state.  Albert, can you look into this and tell me if I'm banned and if not, how I can get my account back up to snuff.  I can only post replies as a guest at the moment.

If I'm banned, well, shucks.  Interesting times a comin', keep up the good work anyway.

I agree with Albert.  The cost of moving families greatly outweighs the simple escape of laying them off due to the economy....and honestly, would elicit less publicity since everyone is laying off folks right now.  I also agree that given history on pandemics, that we can assume a pandemic of sort sort is overdue.  If we can't rely on historical data to make an educated guess, then there is simply no other method of predicting these things such as hurricanes, etc.  Now does it happen that they predict 10 and there is really 14...sure, but the point is that they are making educated guesses in order to prepare people.  I think its perfectly reasonable to try to predict events that are even unpredictable by using historical data.  With all this said, I think that things are falling into place that make it a little more scary than it has been in previous years, so everyone should take that thought and do with it what they may.....if you dont' agree, then just don't do anything different.

Birdfluman wrote: One good thing that will hopefully come of this is that Panasonic's news will be the catalyst for bird flu to get back into the mainstream media. People will begin again to take notice and pandemic planning will either be started at last, or reviewed again.   http://www.birdflu-manual.com

...and put some more money in your pocket?

History is history, and it always repeats itself.  Whether it be pandemics, famines, ice ages, global warming, fallen economies, and on and on.  The law of averages is always in affect.  Time frames are hard to pin down.  No one here is looking for exacts.  Arguing about it is senseless.  A pandemic will happen again.  At least now we have the knowledge to track history to see how things happen and "approximately" what the time frame may be.

   While I agree that pandemics are random events that cannot be predicted, I'm also a believer in the old adage that those who choose to ignore history are destined to repeat it. Pandemics happen and always will. This decision by Panasonic might not mean anything, but when the stakes are so high and a big multinational makes a move like this, I think it warrants attention. Maybe next year we'll look back on this and wonder why we got so excited, but I'd rather that than be unprepared and kicking myself for not heeding the warning signs. Someone in Panasonic knows something we don't and that's the way I choose to view this. We've got 46 people, including 10 members, on today and this thread is the most viewed judging by a quick look at the active users list, so it's got the attention of a lot of people.