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Europe's Shifting Immigration Dynamic

by Esther Ben-David
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2009,

Researchers have long sought to chart the immigration dynamic and to predict future trends. When Poland joined the European Union, forecasts of the number of Polish workers who would immigrate to the United Kingdom underestimated reality. The British government expected 15,000 immigrants a year from the newly-admitted European Union countries but instead approved close to 430,000 applications in two years, a figure that does not include self-employed immigrants who could resettle without applying for a work permit.[3]

Even when the trend is known, forecasts tend to miscalculate reality. A Dutch study from 1994, for example, thought marriage immigration had already peaked.[4] However, a study from 2005 by a Dutch government agency, Statistics Netherlands, shows that between 1995 and 2003, marriage immigration of Turks almost doubled, increasing from slightly less than 2,000 per year to close to 4,000. Marriage immigration of Moroccans in the same period tripled, increasing from slightly over 1,000 a year to about 3,000. This same study expects marriage immigration to peak by the mid 2020s, as second generation immigrants age.[5]

Table 1: Moroccans and Turks in the Netherlands.

Source: "Ruim 850 duizend islamieten in Nederland," Statistics Netherlands, Oct. 24, 2007; Jorgen S. Nielsen, Muslims in Western Europe: Islamic Surveys (Columbia University Press, Oct.1992), pp. 60-1.

Table 2: Turks in Germany, 1973-2006

Source: Deutsche Welle (Bonn), Mar. 1, 2008; Jorgen S. Nielsen, Muslims in Western Europe: Islamic Surveys (Columbia University Press, Oct.1992), pp. 25-6.

In Germany, while the Turkish population stabilized briefly in the 1980s,[6] it later increased steadily despite the 1973 check on immigration (see Table 2).

Table 3: Muslims in Norway, 1979-2005

Source: "Islam I Norge," based on data from Knut A. Jacobsen, Dagfinn Rian, Kari Vogt, Verdensreligioner i Norge (Oslo: Universitetsforlaget, 2005); Jorgen S. Nielsen, Muslims in Western Europe: Islamic Surveys (New York: Columbia University Press, Oct. 1992), pp. 84-6.

And a 1997 study by the Norwegian Statistical Bureau found that 50 percent of immigrants had arrived since 1989, and that 30 percent of the total immigrant community had arrived in just the past five years.[7]

And, according to the lowest available estimates, the number of North Africans in France tripled since the government started restricting immigration in 1974 (see Table 4).

Table 4: North Africans in France, 1957-2003

Source: Michele Tribalat, "Counting France's Numbers—Deflating the Numbers Inflation," The Social Contract Journal, Winter 2003-04; Jorgen S. Nielsen, Muslims in Western Europe: Islamic Surveys (Columbia University Press, Oct.1992), pp. 8-9.

An Immigration Dynamic

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A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World's Muslim Population

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Map: Distribution of Muslim Population in Europe

Roll over a country bubble to see its estimated 2009 Muslim population, the percentage of its population that is Muslim and the percentage of the world Muslim population it represents.

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