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When Do You SIP?

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Poll Question: When do you Stay In Place at home?
Vote Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
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FluMom View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 9:18pm
Elver you are correct banks have no heart nor do mortgage investors they will boot you out. It may take them a year but boot they will, just as they are doing now.

I pray that none of us will ever have to SIP but this discussion is great because it is making me think about what it will take for me to SIP.

I am not a pie in the sky type of person and I have thought alot about this subject and really needed some input as to what my friends on AFT were going to do at the time of "disaster".   It is better to address this now in a calm time so we can think straight when times get crazy.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2012 at 9:30pm
Jacksdad, I brought this subject up to decide WHEN to SIP. I will not give up on that because there may be a time when we have to do it. I am just in a quandry as to WHEN to SIP. I am trying to learn how others are making their decisions so it may help me on my process.

Yep, a lot has happened to me losing my DH was a huge change as well as being over 60 now my future is shorter. I still prep because I hope my son will carry on my prepping for his family just in case of a disaster. I try to gently train him as I purchase items and tell him why and what they are for and how to use the items. I have note books one for Water, Food, Medical, Sanitation, and a catch all note book.

So YES I will SIP and I believe in SIP my problem is WHEN!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 11:49am
FluMom - I do the same with my son. Without getting all doom and gloom, I try to explain why we have certain preps and how important it is not to be one of the unprepared. The recent So Cal blackout showed him how we were in a tiny minority when it came to basics like lighting. He still talks about it.

Mahshadin - absolutely no offense taken. Actually, I was worried I'd come over too strong with my post.

This is turning into a great thread, and I for one am learning and rethinking my preparations for isolating my family. Hopefully we'll all walk away with a more cohesive plan for a SIP. Thanks for starting it, FluMom

Okay - here's my take on what's been discussed so far. When to SIP is still something that I'd have to consider at the time based on what I was seeing globally and locally, and a lot of gut feeling. H5N1 has managed to stay one step ahead of us so far, and I'm not sure it'll follow any rules in the future. We typically expect to see two or three waves in any pandemic based on historical experience. The first wave is when the virus is getting used to us a host, the second is when it's fully adapted and inflicts the highest infection (CAR) and mortality (CFR ) rates, and the third is a last hoorah when most of the susceptible hosts have either died or developed immunity. Each lasts about three months and could be several months apart.

This is the pattern we saw in 1918 (three waves and 18 months duration) and 1957/1968 (two waves). 2009 wasn't as clear cut, and that could be because of modern population densities and travel patterns.

But we also have 1997. Many people don't know that H5N1 made the jump to humans from domesticated poultry in Hong Kong in May of that year, and by the time all poultry in the region had been slaughtered to stop it's spread, 18 people had been infected - some H2H - and six had died. No slow, doddering first wave while the virus mutated to better infect people - it hit the ground running and went straight to a 33% fatality rate. Those that died did so painfully and showing the same cytokine storm phenomenon that we hadn't seen since Spanish Flu 80 years before. We should all be very afraid of H5N1 - it's a monster of a virus.

When (not if) it jumps again and we don't manage to stop it, will we even see a first wave or will it throw the rule book out of the window and hit like a second wave right off the bat? We should probably keep it in mind when we prep, and last minute preps should be all the more important. SARS spread fast not because it was particularly virulent, but because of air travel - H5N1 could do the same and be seeded globally and spreading fast in days instead of months.

The length of a SIP is critical, but pandemics don't last for years and I think a virus like H5N1 may even burn through us faster than we've seen before. What will last for years is the social disruption. This thing has the potential of bringing us to our knees in many ways. If you catch it and survive, you'll be sicker than you've ever been and it'll be many weeks before you begin to recover. People will be too ill to work in large numbers, and social distancing will take a bigger bite out of the workforce. Imagine a bug that spreads as effortlessly as the flu we catch every year despite hand washing and vaccines, but is able to handpick it's victims from the bulk of the current workforce. It won't be the young and old that die in disproportionate numbers - it'll kill the healthy adults using their own immune system. Corporate planning will have no effect on the outcome, and as much as we like to think we're in control, a microscopic chunk of protein and RNA will hand us our butts on a plate. The suits will wish they'd listened to you, Mahshadin.

I unsuccessfully tried to find the reference, but when I first started prepping I came across something that talked of Governmental pandemic plans providing for a moratorium on rents and mortgages. If anyone has anything on the subject, please post it. The gist of it was that in the middle of a major pandemic, the last thing we'd need is a large proportion of the population becoming homeless and wandering the streets en masse. Realistically, if 10,20, maybe 50% of the world was too sick to bring in a paycheck or had no place of work because the power went out a month ago, would it be in anyone's interests to foreclose? Pouring gas on the fire would be an understatement.

Utilities are going to get hit hard so don't worry about paying the bill. No water, gas and electricity should be something that you're prepping for, because they won't be a given anymore once the virus is in your part of the world. Large numbers of people sick or avoiding work to stave off infection will hit all utilities, and it'll probably be a good while before they're available again. The last thing they'll be worried about is you not paying them for a service they probably can't provide anyway.

I'm not planning on a SIP for as long as a year. I don't have space for that many preps, and I don't think the deadliest wave will last that long (although I do worry that an immediate post pandemic world will have the necessities of life readily available). I do plan on a few months though, and I still have to pad my water supplies to get there. My big fear is panic and looting, and when that starts (and I absolutely think it would when the SHTF and people without preps began to get hungry) I'd be prepared if need be to protect my family and our preps any way I had to. Don't knock on the door if I don't know you...

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 1:50pm
Jacksdad, we need to revive the topic on "cytokine storm". What may work because I know I won't be taking my son to a hospital where there will be no help. I still have Sambucol in my basement.

LOL, my Dear Late Husband thought I was nuts until he was involved in higher government and found out the plans to bury thousands and what government knows. Why do you think wealthy famlies are planning bunkers they have connections and know what may come.

After that he built cabinets to hold all my preps!! So SIP is real and you are so correct that last minute preps are going to be very important!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 3:04pm
You should read about the top 10 worst plagues in history.
 
1770 Moscow Plague - "The city’s economy was mostly paralyzed because many factories, markets, stores, and administrative buildings had been closed down. All of this was followed by acute food shortages, causing deterioration of living conditions for the majority of the Muscovites. Dvoryane (Russian nobility) and well-off city dwellers left Moscow due to the plague outbreak."
 
The Great Plague of London (1665-1666) - "killed 75,000 to 100,000 people"
 
The 3rd Pandemic - began in the "Yunnan province (pictured above) in China in 1855"
"killed more than 12 million people"
 
The Black Plague from 1347 to 1351 - "The total number of deaths worldwide is estimated at 75 million people, approximately 25–50 million of which occurred in Europe. The plague is thought to have returned every generation with varying virulence and mortalities until the 1700s. During this period, more than 100 plague epidemics swept across Europe."
 
"Bubonic Plague was known as the Black Death and had been known in England for centuries. " The incubation period was 4-6 days.
"In June 6,137 people died, in July 17,036 people and at its peak in August, 31,159 people died. In all, 15% of the population perished during that terrible summer."
"At the end of World War One an influenza outbreak circled the world during 1918 - 1919. Within a year 20 million people had died world-wide."
 
Most people today are so wrapped up in their day to day lives that they don't have a clue as to how bad a pandemic can be.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 4:08pm
Interesting reading on the 10 most deadly...EEEEK. I know this is why we prep. My sister thinks I am really crazy and spending my money in a nutty way. Most people do not think anything bad can happen in this new age so they don't care.

At least I have done my best!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2012 at 8:19pm
Elver - good find. You're right about most people's perception of a pandemic. I've raised the issue with friends and colleagues and the responses range from "how bad can it be" to absolute blind faith in a medical system hopelessly outgunned from the start. It's such a leap to imagine a global economy struggling to survive during a pandemic that most people can't do it. That's why preppers are in the minority.


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2012 at 9:48pm
A few years ago I was talking with a co-worker about a possible pandemic.  She said she wasn't worried because our health care today is a lot better than what it was years ago.
 
That about sums up the ignorance of most people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2012 at 10:16pm
Yep - that's the response that I've heard a lot.

If you become infected with H5N1 about your only chance of surviving is early treatment with Tamiflu and being put on a respirator. With about 100,000 respirators in the whole of the US and three quarters in use at any given time, you'd better catch it quick or there'll be a long line. And that's assuming that Tamiflu isn't in short supply by that time anyway. We're no better equipped to deal with a major flu pandemic than they were in 1918 simply because there will be many, many more people needing intensive care than there are hospital beds to put them in.

I used to work in EMS and it wouldn't take much - a single mass casualty with a couple of dozen victims, a rough seasonal flu outbreak, or even a busy Friday/Saturday night on a holiday weekend - and hospitals would go on bypass because they were swamped. Throw ten, twenty, a hundred times more really sick people into the mix and you'll see the healthcare system overwhelmed in no time flat. We've cut back so much and eradicated any excess capacity on the advice of the bean counters that we've painted ourselves into a corner with this one. Scary
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2012 at 6:43am
I will SIP when the H5N1 cluster gets to 100 people - a chain of 100 is the sign the pandemic will launch within days so thats the time to shut the gates
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2012 at 1:51pm
Agreed!!!
WHAT TO DO????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2012 at 10:06pm
How will we know when there is a cluster of 100 people? The government or media will not tell us.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2012 at 10:43pm
Forget about H5N1 for a moment.  Ponder the idea of having to sit in place after our currency collapses & pandemonium breaks out everywhere.  This may come sooner than you think.  Our national debt is horrific & totally unsustainable.  See usdebtclock.org
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2012 at 11:53pm
Dang Elver, I am spending lots of money getting our 2 Bug Out Bags ready. I just purchased two backpacks that hold LOTS. I just need two tents, two sleeping bags, two knives, one radio, and a couple of cheap items and I am ready to put it together!

I am really getting the BOB ready because my teen is going to college in the fall and I want to make sure he can get home! Or if he gets stuck on his way home I can take off with my BOB and get him.

I really don't worry about H5N1 too much it is like you said currency collapse or some other disaster. I really do not ever want to have to leave my home but I want to be ready.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi15 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2012 at 7:19am
I know I should prepare bug out bags but have not. We are so rural the next place would be an underground bunker in the woods. Which we do not have. I have thought about digging one but do not have a good place. I want to go into a hill not straight down. I am also afraid of a cave in. My relatives already think I am crazy. After seeing all the Nat Geo programs I realize I am not prepared food-wise. I would like to start a new food reserve and put it underground, vacume sealed and stored in 5 gallon buckets so the temp will stay low and constant.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2012 at 4:59pm
Ok, so I have spent a bloody large amount of money for our BOBs but I know it will be money well spent in the end. At least I will have peace of mind that my kid can even walk home from college if necessary.

I hope we never have to use these bags!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vmd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2012 at 10:28pm
I was thinking that a gauge would be the reaction of governments (local and national) and when the lies start to fly. When they start passing out the cheap surgical masks and telling people to go on with life as usual. When things stop adding up. I think that up to the last minute 'Corp' will want people working abd spending. Like when Pres. Bush said that 'if we stop shopping and traveling the terrorist win'. Any semblance of truth will be spun within an inch of it's life. We'll feel its hot breth on our necks and then we'll know.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evergreen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2012 at 9:27am
Don't take this the wrong way.....   I don't think it is a good idea to wait for the government to "tell" us when to SIP. I would caution anyone about letting the government do our thinking for us. Use your own observation, experience and intuition. If you wait for the government to tell you to SIP, it's probably too late for you. Read info on government eugenics agenda. Not pretty. Love ya, D
235365 - Energy follows thought.   As you think, so you are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote edprof Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2012 at 5:03pm
Frankly I rate the economic conditions as a higher concern than the flu.  Not that the flu couldn't happen.  Not that avian flu couldn't happen, or be made worse, by the recession/depression.

Oftentimes the Lord helps those who help themselves.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2012 at 9:46pm
You can say that again edprof! We are in bad shape but to listen to NBC, CBS or ABC everything is just great1
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