Ebola - the projected number of cases

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   WOW
Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola
Alessandro Vespignani hopes that his latest work will turn out to be wrong. In July, the physicist from Northeastern University in Boston started modeling how the deadly Ebola virus may spread in West Africa. Extrapolating existing trends, the number of the sick and dying mounts rapidly from the current toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September 24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that. “The numbers are really scary,” he says—although he stresses that the model assumes control efforts aren't stepped up.

Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola
Science Now-15 hours agoShare
If spread continues at the current rate, a model by Alessandro Vespignani and colleagues projects close to 10,000 Ebola infections by 24 ...

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Kilt2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414	Post Options Post Reply Quote Kilt2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Ebola - the projected number of cases Posted: August 31 2014 at 11:09pm
	WOW Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola Alessandro Vespignani hopes that his latest work will turn out to be wrong. In July, the physicist from Northeastern University in Boston started modeling how the deadly Ebola virus may spread in West Africa. Extrapolating existing trends, the number of the sick and dying mounts rapidly from the current toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September 24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that. “The numbers are really scary,” he says—although he stresses that the model assumes control efforts aren't stepped up. Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola Science Now-15 hours agoShare If spread continues at the current rate, a model by Alessandro Vespignani and colleagues projects close to 10,000 Ebola infections by 24 ...
	And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.

Kilt2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414	Post Options Post Reply Quote Kilt2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: August 31 2014 at 11:10pm
	rapidly from the current toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September 24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that.
	And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.

pheasant Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851	Post Options Post Reply Quote pheasant Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: September 01 2014 at 2:46am
	good catch,
	The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR

Kilt2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414	Post Options Post Reply Quote Kilt2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: September 01 2014 at 5:12am
	so on Sept 24 lets see if it is 10K cases with 5K deaths and if so lets see what happens then.
	And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.

Albert Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746	Post Options Post Reply Quote Albert Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: September 01 2014 at 5:42am
	Hello Kilt my friend, I agree, good find. KenFine also posted that on ebolinfo.org. I believe it's saying 10,000 cases by Sept 24th as opposed to deaths. Keep up the good work -
	https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk

cobber Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote cobber Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: September 01 2014 at 6:53am
	Just a small correction. Its 10000 cases not deaths.... From what i can surmise, his figures are not far off. I only work on deaths as the data is more reliable. I get approximately 3000 deaths by the end of September. I'm really hoping to see results from the WHO's intervention. They should have made a difference to the numbers by now. If they haven't slowed the trend by 1st November. We may need to reassess the vehemency of this outbreak. The number get crazy very quickly

onefluover Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: April 21 2013 Location: Death Valleyish Status: Offline Points: 20151	Post Options Post Reply Quote onefluover Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: September 01 2014 at 8:01am
	KenFine posted the link and then I followed that link and posted the article to avianflutalk.com 's Ebola Tracking Forum. I think the unfounded but popular estimate that only a quarter of the true numbers have been captured is the case. If so then there are already well over 10,000 infected and 6,000 dead. But in the real world for now, we have no choice but to work with real numbers which are profound enough. But in any case, the doubling of new case/deaths, as we all are well aware of, after a certain point, they shoot up astronomically very quickly. On the one hand, I'm like it just can't be. But on the other, it just is.
	"And then there were none."