Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Watch for sick health care workers |
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Angel
Valued Member Joined: December 08 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 346 |
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Posted: January 05 2006 at 5:08pm |
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One
way to see if this thing has mutated to be passed from human-to-human
is to watch if the Turkish doctors and nurses to become ill.
I haven't seen any recent post which is making me wonder if everyone feels the pandemic is upon us and are out stocking up. |
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Angel
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That's my panic signal...sick HCW's. Problem is as someone else pointed out...this is flu season over there and we may see a lot of people & HCW's reporting ILI that may be reported as a suspected BF infection. We will have to wait, biting our fingernails, until actual test results come in. Then we will have to wait to see if those test results are confirmed. From what I was able to glean in a down and dirty search is there isn't too much protection for the HCW's...so IF this is H2H BF they will start dropping out about tomorrow or Saturday. Stay tuned sports fans. |
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Edited by Admin |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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This is sad. you think by reading the headline something positive is being done, Yet instead of attempting to plan to increase patient load with more beds and try to get their hands on more ventilators they are just going to figure which of the ones that deserves treatment. PROBABLY THE ONES WITH INSURANCE! Gee thanks for really trying to plan, Health Officials Consider Strategy for Possible Bird Flu Pandemic NPR - Feb 10 7:31 AM Morning Edition , February 10, 2006 · Health experts worry that in the event of a bird-flu pandemic, there could be a severe shortage of ventilators and intensive care unit beds. Planning has begun to determine which cases would get treatment priority.
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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Well those that do the planning have to work within limits (ie budgets) that others set.
Same can be said with regards the WHO. Its fair to assume that many of their problems are due to lack of money, staff, resources in general? I understand that the 'playing things down' stuff also makes people moan about the WHO, but earlier in this thread we see what happens when people panic. Which leaders/institutions would of had the power to make WHO and vetinery and health services and surveillance across the entire globe strong enough to effectively fight the pandemic? |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Who in the hell put the WHO in charge? They took the lead in this and set themselves up as the experts telling us this and that. now look what we have to deal with. So they can't do their job and we're supposed to say "that's okay'" They put themselves in the middle trying to control the data. If I screw up and risk my life that is on me but If I screw up and risk the lives of others that in unacceptable. If they can't do the job then they should shut up, step aside and let someone else. No time for being fair, lack of money, excuses. It's too late for baby talk. Alot of people aren't preping cause they have the impression the WHO will handle it and let them know what's up. So when is the WHO going to belly up and admit failure? Never. They will drag as many as they can down with them to protect their selfserving interest.
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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When I plan I shoot high so that if I hit low it's still above what I expected. These guys are aiming low and will end up below that. If we simpithize with the persons doing the planing, (the ones we get our instructions from) then we can expect little. Problems are identified to overcome not waller in. Their planning reflects a "too late" attitude. They are loosers I wouldn't follow to the bathroom. With small thinkers like these in charge of the planning we are screwed. Guess it will be easier to plan to dig more graves. I would PANIC if I were you. Edited by Corn |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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That's why there are countries out there that have no intention of waiting on WHO to call the ball. They have said in no uncertain terms that they will call a health crisis independent of whatever the WHO is officially saying if they feel it's in the best interest of their country. I look to NZ when I need guidence on what to expect from H5N1. YMMV |
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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I can appreciate all of those points, and I do agree with a lot of them, more or less. But who else is there (no pun intended), that is am important question for sure.
I dont consider questions of money etc to be baby talk. Its as much at the heart of the matter as anything else. People moan about the UN being weak in world leadership, and the WHO is going to receive the same flak from the same people I imagine. Well if you want a strong UN or a strong alternative, you have to make it happen. I think it is just about too late really to expect this to change in time for this pandemic, though you know if I actually wear an optimists hat for a moment, there may still be more time than we think (or there may be virtually no time left at all, I ouldnt bet either way). The USA likes to do strong leadership globally when it deems a military option to be necessary, why dont they apply the same reasoning to fighting the flu pandemic? If you say, why should they have to do it, then we are back at needing a global solution, which the WHO is, flawed by the usual institutional problems it may be. As best I am aware no one body decided that the WHO was in charge when the pandemic threat first emerged, its probably just a result of decades of international laws and agreements, which the USA has likely pushed forwards as much as any other state. If anybody knows more about this Id love to hear. Attack the WHO and criticise them when they deserve it, Im not trying to stop that. I just want a more detailed debate about solutions sometimes. Edited by elbows |
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sophiaZoe, why NZ
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Medical staff morale key in bird flu outbreak: expert SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Hospitals must prepare their staff for the trauma of a bird flu epidemic or risk a collapse of morale and services at a time when they will be most needed, a medical expert said on Saturday. "I predict that you will have very few staff two weeks into the epidemic if you do not have mechanisms in place to minimize the stress and effect on morale," Charles Gomersall, the director of intensive care at Hong Kong's Princess Margaret Hospital, told a bird flu symposium in Singapore. "If you have poor staff morale, they will not come to work, you would not have a service -- end of story." He said hospitals could offer staff counseling and daily debriefings to help them manage stress during an outbreak. While the H5N1 avian flu virus mostly affects birds, it has killed at least 88 people in seven countries since it re-emerged in late 2003, with most victims in east Asia. There is no evidence yet that the virus has mutated to the point that it could spread from human to human, a nightmare scenario experts believe could kill millions. Gomersall said there appeared to be a higher mortality rate among avian flu patients than among those affected by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003, particularly among children. Taking 54 reported bird flu cases from Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong and China, he found that the death rate for those requiring intensive care was 89 percent and their median age was 12.5 years. "The much greater problem in avian flu compared to SARS is the high mortality, in particular the high mortality amongst children," Gomersall said. "The family will have dropped off their child and the next time they see him, he will be dying -- can you imagine the effect that will have on staff morale in your unit?" Gomersall said hospitals needed to start equipping their facilities and training their staff now. "Once the epidemic starts, you've got a very, very short time between presentation (of symptoms) and ICU admission," he said. "The number of days between having no patients with SARS and having a lot of patients with SARS is about 3 to 4 days. Avian flu is unlikely to be better: if anything, it's likely to be worse. If you haven't started preparing already, go home and start now." http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060211/hl_nm/birdflu_hospitals_ dc_2 |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Siam, I look to NZ because they have been consistently honest with their population and the government has been quite vocal for going on 10 months. They were the first officials I read that said.... "Prepare to be on your own, without electricity, water, gasoline, food supply, etc. for up to six months." And they haven't backed down from that stance. In my book any government that is honest enough to admit there isn't any way to protect the country and thus the citizenry and that each individual MUST take responsibility for themselves earns a big shining gold star in my book. Starting on an honest footing makes me assume they will remain on an honest footing. They didn't try to white wash it, down play it, say there is no worry for years, if ever. They said if it happens it will be very bad and there will be little or nothing your government will be able to do to help you. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Elbows Quote, The USA likes to do strong leadership globally when it deems a military option to be necessary, why dont they apply the same reasoning to fighting the flu pandemic? You're right there but we are too streched out. Iraq will probably be our last adventure for awhile. We have to be broke soon. We are an illusion supported by a strong modern military just like Germany in 1939. We are over extended and unless they declare martial law here we will not have enough manpower or money for many more forays. I had once thought we could get a coalition together to fight BF but think it will be too little too late for that. We could have probably started earlier on this but China was and still is not helpful and I doubt if they ever gave the WHO the virus samples they had been requesting over and over. And there is no way to raise the standard of living in Vietnam and the rest of South East Asia overnight. Thier living practices are thousands of years old. Although I would draw the line at chickens in the house. You have alot of people sharing a small space. The world population is growing. Land is shrinking. Maybe mother nature is plannig a cull of her own. We have wrecked the planet. All we can do is prep and accept individual responsibility for ourselves and our loved ones. That's the real truth in this matter. There will be no quick fixes and sudden cures. Edited by Corn |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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This is dated 9/15/05. Since then I believe there have been numerous summits and 100's of millions of dollars pledged to combat a pandemic. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=15795&Cr=wo rld&Cr1=summit [snip] President Bush called for giving countries access to the means to fight infectious diseases, and pledged that the US would “continue to lead the world in providing the resources to defeat the plague of HIV/AIDS.” He also pledged to increase funding for malaria treatment and prevention by more than $1.2 billion by 2010. In addition, he announced the formation of a new partnership aimed at preventing a pandemic of avian influenza, or “bird flu,” which includes a central role for the UN World Health Organization (WHO). [/snip] Say what you will, but Bush has been a leader in bringing the world leaders to the table for planning how to meet the challenges of preventing and/or coping with a pandemic. Countries rushed to join his parnership because the US, as usual, was handing out grants. Money well spent if used for its intended purposes. But who's to say that is or will be the case? Name me another world leader that has done more than President Bush. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Putin wants global rules on bird flu, energy (English)
MOSCOW, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Russia, the world's second biggest oil exporter, was working on transparent rules for the global energy sector for discussion by the Group of Eight industrial nations. ... |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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jeez 6 months is a long time, don't have enough food.
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You think 6 months is long, read Osterholm's 18 months.
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