WHO considers declaring global health emergency

China coronavirus death toll rises to 17; WHO considers declaring global health emergency.

Never good when they mention it has achieved sustained human to human transmission.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-22/wuhan-china-deadly-coronavirus

AI, interesting stuff. Thanks for the post.

AI, I am so impressed with your information. Thank You!

“The Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate is lower than for SARS and MERS, but still comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, explains Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London.”

Just in case you needed reassuring...

I have a friend who works as an RN in a local care facility, and everyone is being required to wear masks as of this morning. She texted me to see if I knew why because they’re not giving a reason.

AI, can you tell me if there are many cases in Guangzhou Canton in Guangdong Province? I have a good reason to ask. I saw on a map that there were 20 or so cases there could it be much worse than that?

An epidemiologist friend of mine (FBI) constructed this Epidemic Curve for the Wuhan outbreak:

"Simple calculations regarding the potential period for the spread of Coronavirus.
The virus is spreading at a polynomial rate (R2 = 0.974), but the data I have is limited. However, the
the trendline is slightly lower than the real numbers"

AI, thanks for the info. We have a family coming back to our work first week of February and I am a little concerned!

Jacks dad....What type of a facility does your friend work? In the US?

Flumon, lol. You crack me up lol. I agree. Chuck, what's up?

"When they tell you not to panic that is when you run." Quote from movie 2012...LOL.

Makes you wonder what they’re trying to keep behind those road blocks. Far more cases than they’re willing to admit to, or a mutated virus?

The fact that China has quarantined 11.9 million people, shut down all transportation in or out of the city, set up police road blocks on roads to limit in coming and out going traffic scares the H out of me! It tells me that there is something very, very wrong there! I don't believe they have changed at all and the extent of this quarantine should say plenty! I'm with Cobber, right now there are suspected cases in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Russia. We should know for sure in the next week to ten days!

Thank you all so much for keeping the info flowing all these years, y'all have never failed me in the many years I've been here. Living in a University town with a large amount of international students scares the hell out of me, especially since classes just started again this week and many people went home over the winter break. Here's hoping for the best.

Yes its sad we convene when a virus threatens...

Its terrible to say, I'm really only interested in the "big pandemic".
I am concerned about this one. Like all corona it can twist and turn. Having said this I'm not seeing anything too alarming at this stage.

I remember SARS at the time. It sacred the crap out of me. It was very similarly reported. I remember the numbers exploded everyone panicked. I think we were all a little scared. But in the whole scheme of things it turned out to be a powder puff. This all feels very familiar.

So from an experienced head having lived through several viral threats. Keep calm guys we are early days.

Keep an eye out for sustained spread in first world nations and associated deaths. This is the best marker to understand the threat we face.

I'm watching to see if there are cases outside of China that were clearly contracted due to plane travel/close proximity. That's when I'll become more concerned about this virus.

That said, China's willingness to seal off three cities (it's up to three now) could be seen as either a good sign (taking responsibility during the Lunar New Year high travel season) or bad sign (bug is worse than they're reporting). That Wuhan is the epicenter of China's bio testing is an interesting twist.