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Why isn't Ebola spreading in W. Africa?

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Kilt2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Why isn't Ebola spreading in W. Africa?
    Posted: October 22 2014 at 6:19pm
Its not everywhere but in only a handful of countries.

Why do you suppose this is?

Could it be its not being reported? Or could it be that its not that bad?

There are a number of possibilities - I have some suggestions.

But the fact is - Ebola is not spreading like wild fire all over Africa.


Why Ebola Hasn't Really Spread Across West Africa

TIME-8 hours agoShare
A burial team in protective gear carry the body of woman suspected to have died from the Ebola virus in Monrovia, Liberia, Oct. 18, 2014. Abbas Dulleh—AP 
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 6:50pm
The reported cases are now ten thousand. Estimates as high as four times that. So up to 40,000 cases so far. All stemming from one two year old baby. Each new case is just like that baby and could potentially infect 40,000 more people -each. That's 1.6 billion in the next 10 months it took to infect these 40,000. Lets assume the true numbers are the 10,000 reported cases. That's still potentially 100,000,000. I'm not saying it will follow this patern of increase but it is clear the numbers are going to go way up soon. Way up. Not as fast as flu but fifty to hundreds of times deadlier.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 7:01pm
Roger that on that 10,000.  Plus WHO says cases under estimated by 2.5 times.   Probably closer to 25,000.  It's like an expanding balloon moving slowly.  We all know when the bubble begins to burst. \

Ebola cases and deaths by country and by date – 1 August to most recent WHO /Gov update
Date Total Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Nigeria Senegal United States Spain Refs
Cases Deaths  % Daily
growth
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
19 Oct 2014 9,936 4,877 +1.2% 1,540 904 4,665 2,705 3,706 1,259 20 8 1 0 3 1 1 0 [note 1][2]
17 Oct 2014 9,693 4,811 +1.7% 1,501 886 4,607 2,689 3,560 1,227 20 8 1 0 3 1 1 0 [note 2][274][153][154][4]
12 Oct 2014 8,997 4,493 +1.4% 1,472 843 4,249 2,458 3,252 1,183 20 8 1 0 2 1 1 0 [note 3][163]
7 Oct 2014 8,386 3,988 +2.1% 1,350 778 4,076 2,316 2,937 885 20 8 1 0 1 1 1 0 [note 4][275][276]
5 Oct 2014 8,033 3,865 +1.7% 1,298 768 ≥3,924 ≥2,210 2,789 ≥879 20 8 1 0 1 0

[note 5][11][275]
1 Oct 2014 7,492 3,439 +1.3% 1,199 739 ≥3,834 ≥2,069 2,437 623 20 8 1 0 1 0

[note 6][277]
28 Sep 2014 7,192 3,286 +1.8% 1,157 710 ≥3,696 ≥1,998 2,317 570 20 8 1 0 1 0

[note 7] [278][279][280]
25 Sep 2014 6,808 3,159 +1.7% 1,103 668 ≥3,564 ≥1,922 2,120 561 20 8 1 0



[note 8] [281][282][283]
23 Sep 2014 6,574 3,043 +2.4% 1,074 648 ≥3,458 ≥1,830 2,021 557 20 8 1 0



[note 9][284][285]
21 Sep 2014 6,263 2,900 +2.0% 1,022 635 ≥3,280 ≥1,707 1,940 550 20 8 1 0



[note 10][286][287]
17 Sep 2014 5,762 2,746 +2.5% 965 623 ≥3,022 ≥1,578 1,753 537 21 8 1 0



[note 11][288][289][290]
14 Sep 2014 5,339 2,586 +2.3% 942 601 ≥2,720 ≥1,461 1,655 516 21 8 1 0



[note 12][291][292][293]
10 Sep 2014 4,848 2,376 +3.3% 899 568 2,415 1,307 1,509 493 22 8 3 0



[note 13][294][295]
7 Sep 2014 4,391 2,177 +2.1% 861 557 2,081 1,137 1,424 476 22 7 3 0



[note 14][296][297]
3 Sep 2014 4,001 2,059 +2.4% 823 522 1,863 1,078 1,292 452 22 7 1 0



[298]
31 Aug 2014 3,707 1,808 +2.9% 771 494 1,698 871 1,216 436 21 7 1 0



[note 15] [240][299]
25 Aug 2014 3,071 1,553 +3.0% 648 430 1,378 694 1,026 422 19 7





[300]
20 Aug 2014 2,615 1,427 +2.7% 607 406 1,082 624 910 392 16 5





[12]
18 Aug 2014 2,473 1,350 +4.7% 579 396 972 576 907 374 15 4





[301]
16 Aug 2014 2,240 1,229 +1.7% 543 394 834 466 848 365 15 4





[302]
13 Aug 2014 2,127 1,145 +3.6% 519 380 786 413 810 348 12 4





[303]
11 Aug 2014 1,975 1,069 +3.2% 510 377 670 355 783 334 12 3





[304]
9 Aug 2014 1,848 1,013 +1.2% 506 373 599 323 730 315 13 2





[305]
6 Aug 2014 1,779 961 +1.9% 495 367 554 294 717 298 13 2





[306]
4 Aug 2014 1,711 932 +2.1% 495 363 516 282 691 286 9 1





[307]
1 Aug 2014 1,603 887 - 485 358 468 255 646 273 4 1





[308]

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Kilt2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 7:41pm
No question about your points.

You missed my point.

Why has the virus not spread to other countries that share a border with the three countries with infections?


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 7:43pm
from the TIME article link above:

the World Health Organization reports has claimed at least 4,877 lives, largely in West Africa, has so far been mainly confined to three countries: Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. But why have others like Guinea-Bissau, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire — which all share at least one border with a badly afflicted country — so far managed to avoid any cases of the virus?
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 8:04pm
The numbers are dropping from trend. This is a very good sign.  Clap

The previous numbers were trending consistently against 30 day doubling up until mid September. This was very consistent, and it is what we see with other viral spreads.

Since the WHO has been focused, and governments are putting in combative measures. There has been a clear drop in deaths. 

We noticed the numbers decline in September and though it could be an anomaly, but since then the numbers have kept declining. The drop is also consistent with with what would be expected from an effective intervention.

We aren't out of the woods just yet, but this is a very good sign. With in the next month we should know if Ebola will be stopped.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 8:36pm
Originally posted by Kilt2 Kilt2 wrote:

No question about your points.

You missed my point.

Why has the virus not spread to other countries that share a border with the three countries with infections?




That is a good question that I don't know the answer to other than to guess that their culture is so very primitive and impoverished that no one is able to travel very far from their home base and the ones that do are stopped at the border crossing checkpoints. But eventually if the death toll goes high enough a panicked stampede will overrun the border security. Those guarding the borders may eventually become infected themselves and abandon post. Simple mathematics show that either this virus will be stopped and go away or it will march outwards, borders be damned. It does not have a mind of its own or touchy feelings. It has no mercy. Not even for its own survival. It will march until we stop it. But stop it we just may.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 8:43pm
Nice graphwork Cobber. It really helps to show a slowing trend thats easy to see instantly, however small. But the virus started out small so it can work both ways.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 9:00pm
Unlike the United States they closed borders.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/africa-stems-ebola-border-closings-luck-26249603
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 10:33pm
Those borders stop nobody - people go back and forth all the time.

But despite that Ebola is mostly in 3 countries.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 10:37pm
From the report in this thread:- http://www.avianflutalk.com/numbers-update-99364877_topic32946.html we have the following statement:

Quote Although Ebola has been contained in Nigeria and Senegal, the disease is spreading towards Ivory Coast in both Liberia and Guinea, including in Guinea's Kankan district on a major trade route with Mali. Kankan saw its first case in the past week.


I have been surprised by the slow spread of Ebola, but that seems to indicate that it spreads best when someone is very sick (and so not mobile).  So we are seeing a very slow moving epidemic, far, far slower than what we are used to say with flu, but it is expanding its geographic area.

With so many threads about it being 'airborne' I wander if we are being prepared to panic too early - if Ebola hits our area and if it expands at the rate it is in West Africa (doubtful assumption) then it could be 6 months to a year before we see a local explosion of Ebola cases.  If we SIP at the first case we could run out of supplies before things get really bad - although it people panic the problems of supplies will hit much earlier.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2014 at 11:00pm
Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

From the report in this thread:- http://www.avianflutalk.com/numbers-update-99364877_topic32946.html we have the following statement:

Quote Although Ebola has been contained in Nigeria and Senegal, the disease is spreading towards Ivory Coast in both Liberia and Guinea, including in Guinea's Kankan district on a major trade route with Mali. Kankan saw its first case in the past week.


I have been surprised by the slow spread of Ebola, but that seems to indicate that it spreads best when someone is very sick (and so not mobile).  So we are seeing a very slow moving epidemic, far, far slower than what we are used to say with flu, but it is expanding its geographic area.

With so many threads about it being 'airborne' I wander if we are being prepared to panic too early - if Ebola hits our area and if it expands at the rate it is in West Africa (doubtful assumption) then it could be 6 months to a year before we see a local explosion of Ebola cases.  If we SIP at the first case we could run out of supplies before things get really bad - although it people panic the problems of supplies will hit much earlier.

 

Thanks, ES, your thoughts mirror mine as well.  

The sickest Ebola patients are not very mobile, and the Ro = 1 to 2 reflects that the growth of this epidemic is within families, who are the traditional caregivers in these countries.  Also, this is primarily a disease of the poor, who lack access to motorized transport for the most part.  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/25/world/africa/liberia-ebola-victims-treatment-center-cdc.html?action=click&contentCollection=US%20Open&region=Article&module=Promotron


MONROVIA, Liberia — The family of the sick man, who had endured Ebola’s telltale symptoms for six days, took him by taxi to treatment centers here in the capital twice, only to be turned back at the gate each time for lack of beds. He died at home, his arms thrashing violently and blood spewing out his mouth, in front of his sons.

“We had to carry him home two times because they could do nothing for us,” said Eric Gweah, 25, as a team of body collectors came to retrieve the corpse of his father, Ofori Gweah, 62. “The only thing the government can do is come for bodies. They are killing us.”

So many Ebola victims are dying at home because of the severe shortage of treatment centers here in Monrovia, Liberia’s capital, that they are infecting family members, neighbors and others in a ballooning circle of contagion.

Only 18 percent of Ebola patients in Liberia are being cared for in hospitals or other settings that reduce the risk of transmission by isolating them from the rest of the population, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Unless that rate reaches 70 percent, the center predicted this week, Ebola cases will keep soaring.


As far as a "local explosion," I primarily worry about an Ebola case that spreads exactly the same way in the USA = a West African immigrant, who would seek out his/her countrymen, could start a mini-epidemic in a city like Minneapolis, which has a large ex-pat community.  

I'm fairly certain that any outbreak in the USA would be contained, with much work.  However, my concern remains with the impoverished and developing nations like India, Philippines etc. where basic sanitation is lacking, medical facilities are poor, and cities are crowded.  Ebola could be like a much deadlier version of cholera if it becomes established.  

In any event, I strongly advocate SIP and "watchful waiting."  Keep your supplies in rotation, pay attention to prescription medicine needs, and be vigilant.  Be safe, Chuck
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With currently 10,000 cases and an estimated 25,000 in W. Africa, that corner of Africa probably doesn't stand much of a chance. Mini horror movie.  Their best bet is to continue to use the military and everything they have to contain in it in W. Africa until January and until a trial vaccine is ready and then make an attempt to eradicate it forever.   It's not spreading out of that region as they/we are fighting like h*ll to keep it there to buy people time.

I'm not sure what the outcome will be,  but W. Africa is and will be hell on earth for quite awhile.  If they start losing containment (bubble bursts) in W. Africa,  then it will get a lot tougher to stop.  Not sure if they can hold it off for another 90 days, but time will tell.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 5:40am
Time magazine and the Independent in UK ran articles on this subject.

Border closures since June and crossing checkpoint screening, may have had a greater impact than reported. Such closures reinforce to people the need not to cross when possibly infected and the wrath, vengence, shame they and their family would face if they did come into a neighbouring country while infected. There are threats of families being prosecuted with severe sentences if they were to take Ebola to other countries. Reports of people being shot attempting to cross borders, and angry mobs protecting known illegal crossing points in an attempt to keep out the disease. The boundaries may not be easily protected physically, but psychologically they seen to be holding. On top of this some of the worst affected areas are under armed quarantine.


Additionally the 3 countries affected have the most overloaded healthcare systems, and Sierra's Leone and Liberia are just out of civil war, making the overall infrastructure fragile, and at times non existent. Sierra Leone 2 doctors/100,000 people, Liberia 1/100,000. Ivory coast is better at 15/100,000 ( USA 242/100,000). This meant that Liberia and Sierra Leone couldn't stop Ebola once it started there was no resources, no appropriate staff and no infrastructure.

In contrast the other surrounding countries which have more resources, have also been forewarned. This has allowed time to prepare their public health systems. Preparation has meant community mobilisation. They have run extensive public awareness campaigns, educated traditional healers, put medical systems on high alert, and very importantly have invested and trained people able to contact trace. They have also educated about containment within a community if anything were to break out.

This forward planning and preparedness is how Senegal's rapid response plan were able to stop Ebola in its tracks.

I agree though that this doesn't fully answer why no cases have really been seen, but when we start combining all the elements from these articles and the valid points other peoples posts you can start to see how when combined this may be the answer to this puzzle.

So scenario probably goes like this. Someone in family gets sick, maybe it is just Malaria, a common disease which presents like this, no need to panic, wait see how it goes for a day or so, relative gets worse, they are sick, have we waited too long now to travel. Go to an ebola treatment centre, get turned away. 2 choices, leave and cross into another country better hospital care, or stay. We have little money to fly, and patient that got to USA or Nigeria died anyway. Perhaps walk over into Ivory Coast. However If we leave, how do we cross border, people being shot, mobs protecting the main passable routes. If alternatively we go to an official border they would check and clearly see relative is ill, so can't do that. Even if we get across and turn up at hospital, probably turned away. Wrath would fall on family and they would be dragged to jail for 10 years, or worse mobbed and lynched, we are seen as plagued and cursed. They would know we had lied because we have already been to ebola centre. Also what happens to home and possessions while away trying to cross border. Neighbours may suspect our house is Ebola house and burn it, looters might loot it. No best to wait it out, try local cures etc, hope it is malaria, because crossing the border in this condition is shameful on family, and we would only be met with hostility. How also would we pay for treatment once there. Now relative too sick to travel, treat at home and hope they are one of the lucky ones that survive.

So perhaps the majority of the sick don't go. Especially in late stages too sick to travel.   Perhaps healthier people post exposure do leave and present at border hospitals, but are isolated, contained before we hear about it. Many countries can't afford to be classed as an " Ebola Country" How do we know Senegal is not the only country to have an infected person. Behind the scene many embers may be regularly isolated and stamped out before any damage, because there are clearly people there with fire extinguisher at the ready, and a healthcare system geared up for such an event. A luxury the other 3 countries didn't have.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 6:04am
Originally posted by Kilt2 Kilt2 wrote:

Those borders stop nobody - people go back and forth all the time.

But despite that Ebola is mostly in 3 countries.


It was mostly in one country and then mostly in one county. It's spread is slow but stubborn. Twice as fast as HIV but 15 times slower than H1N1. But its CFR and speed to which it gets there is what is most concerning to me.

Reposted from Pheasant:

"This is the original story:

Panic has swept the public faster than Ebola itself in recent weeks, as Thomas Eric Duncan became the first person to die of the disease in the U.S., and the nurse treating him at Texas Presbyterian Hospital also fell ill. A second health worker at the hospital tested positive, as well as a Spanish nurse’s assistant who contracted Ebola after treating a patient, but who was recently cleared of the disease.

But here’s the most jarring news: A new study suggests we may have no way of predicting how far the epidemic will go.

According to a little noticed study, published last month in the journal eLife, the typical mathematical model that describes the eventual scale of past outbreaks simply doesn’t apply to what global health experts consider the worst Ebola epidemic on record. “We’re in uncharted waters,” Thomas House, a research fellow at the University of Warwick Mathematics Institute and the study author, told OZY. “The scale of this outbreak is much larger than any seen before, so it’s very hard to predict.”

    The current Ebola outbreak to date is spreading much faster than the model predicts.

To be sure, the scale of the disease has not reached anything close to some others of recent decades. So far, Ebola has sickened 8,914 people and killed 4,447. By comparison, the total number of AIDS cases reported to the World Health Organization hit 20,303 at the end of 1985, about a year after scientists discovered HIV, while 414,000 people were confirmed to have contracted H1N1 in October 2009, a little more than six months after the virus surfaced in Mexico.

And not surprising, health officials are trying to assure the world that even if we can’t anticipate the epidemic’s spread, that doesn’t mean we can’t turn the tide. Agencies from the CDC to the WHO believe that it’s still possible to stop the disease’s spread by isolating patients and with safer burial practices that minimize contact with the body.

But that hasn’t stopped top agencies from trying to put some figures on all this. Just last week, the World Health Organization predicted that by December, Ebola could strike 10,000 people per week in West Africa if the world doesn’t beef up response efforts. The WHO also ratcheted its mortality rate estimate up to 70 percent, much higher than the 50 percent reported dead.
Princess Manjoe cries after a man dies from Ebola in Monrovia, Liberia.
SOURCE Marcus DiPaola / ZUMApress

The WHO’s numbers were estimates; it’s “probably true” that the severity of the current outbreak can’t be predicted, said agency spokesperson Daniel Epstein. Hard-to-predict social factors have a bigger hand in the current outbreak. Unlike in Central Africa, where earlier outbreaks occurred, burial practices in West Africa often include bathing, dressing and kissing the body of the diseased — a surefire way to pass on the deadly disease. The current outbreak also emerged in an urban, high-traffic area that had already been ravaged by an outbreak of Lassa fever, whose symptoms can easily be mistaken for those of Ebola.

In the University of Warwick study, House analyzed the number of cases, deaths and other data from the 24 Ebola outbreaks the WHO reported since the virus first reared its head in Sudan in 1976. Based on these data, he designed a mathematical model to track each outbreak’s scale.

    Worst-case scenario: Cases double until only those who have recovered from or are less susceptible to the disease remain.

Infectious disease models often hinge on chance events, such as people’s location when they’re most likely to spread the disease, the travel patterns of others with whom they come into contact, or their proximity to medical facilities. House modeled past Ebola outbreaks based on two key chance events: the initial number of cases and level of infectiousness — the amount of viral particles sufficient to cause disease — once the epidemic kicked into gear.

Plugging the chance event data for each outbreak into House’s model yielded its eventual scale — but not the scale of the current outbreak to date, which is spreading much faster than the model predicts. Consistent with the WHO’s recent announcement, “the most likely thing to see is doubling if we do nothing else,” a pattern not seen in past outbreaks, House said. Worst-case scenario: The doubling progresses until only those who have recovered from or are less susceptible to the disease remain. But for a disease as deadly as Ebola, “we hope there’s an intervention to stop things before that happens.”

House believes that the unprecedented scale of the current outbreak compared to earlier outbreaks means that it’s less likely to be driven by chance events. “Something fundamental” is different about this outbreak, House said.

Read more: www.ozy.com
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The proper link to the story in Elife, with a link to the PDF and the sourced science behind it....http://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/new-study-ebolas-true-scale-is-a-mystery/35272

I read this and it is alarming to say the least, he talks about essentially an extinction event, unless we can stop it.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Considering my limited science/ medical knowledge, can some one please read the PDF, and tell me if this guy is real or a flake."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 6:33am
Abstract:
             You are going to have to scream for Chuck here.  It is way beyond me but right up his street.

Method:
           I examined both the paper and the institute publishing it.

Results:
           The terminology and mathematical symbology is within accepted/normal parameters for epidemiology but his figures (at least those I understood) seem to be rather off.  They may be correct and tempered by the bits I don't get yet, which are plentiful.  I have also never heard before of elife.  I clicked on their link for the homepage and got "server not found".  Not a good sign, but it turned out to be a missprint on the PDF and the link http://elifesciences.org/ does work.

They seem to be peer reviewed, scientifically backed, research publishers for emerging scientists.  They are foundation backed, so may be cheaper to publish in than say Nature.  Looking at the surrounding driving forces of this PDF, I was unable to decide if it was hokum or not.

Conclusion:
               The article seems to be genuine but the margin for error in my research is sufficiently large to negate all conclusions.  OR.  I do not have sufficient rescources (personal knowledge) to arrive at a firm conclusion on the veracity of the PDF.       Sorry!

Incidentally:
                Outside of both the article and the current ebola outbreak, the Earth is undergoing an Extinction Level Event currently.       Even more sorry!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote atheris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 6:57am
nice graph... at one point .. in a year or so.. ebola will be strongly diminished from its natural dynamics if tha proper answers will be put to place...

but it wil not be stopped in a month or 6 months....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 7:01am
As a note of reassurance, the extinction he refers to is of the ebola outbreak, not us. 

The main risk from an infectious disease like this is reservoir hosts.  No disease, however high the Ro, can make its host extinct UNLESS there is another asymptomatic, alternative host.  Otherwise any outbreak, however virulent, will burn out like a forest fire without affecting other smaller, non-local communities.  Ebola does have that in dogs, primates, bats and who knows what else.  Thank God it does not seem to like rodents.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote atheris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 7:17am
the trend can be really slowing down.. or teh numbers might have reached such numbers, that the actual people involved in counting these cases (in the field and central) might be streched that much that they ar enot coming to the whole image

or the measures taken in the latest 2/3 weeks were better measured to the calamity, and might be soon to small again for the next hight... 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 7laws Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 9:59am
These countries don't have fences on their borders. Most people will cross where there are roads so it is possible to contain somewhat. The issue will come if there is a strong panic that makes people run. There is little to no difference from one country to another in that part if Africa. If people start seeing hundreds if dead people laying around that is when they will run. They will have to risk running thru the bush to avoid check points. That is dangerous due to wild animals and bad people. I wouldn't think the borders would become porous until you see over 100,000 dying.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 11:05am
My points exactly. Thanks!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 4:08pm
The numbers are close to what we predicted. The thought was that the WHO and international efforts would start showing up around now. (truth is i expected November 1st)

My graph doesn't suggest a stop to Ebola any time soon. I just shows a turn away from a 30 day doubling.

I still think we have a slow moving pandemic on our hands. I also think it will get worse with scattered outbreaks in other parts of the world (3rd world). I also think this will at some stage effect trade, and the stock market. 

I don't think it will take of in a Western country on recent evidence (i was a bit worried before). However i do think the media will whip up the public fear again and we may have a little mass panic at some stage.

Its still good news and shows the WHO is having an effect.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 5:00pm
Its not spreading to other countries - 1 in Mali

Ebola Is Hitting The Women Of West Africa The Hardest, Especially ...

Madame Noire-16 Oct 2014Share
“In Guinea, burial practices are linked to 60 percent of Ebola cases. The figure is thought to be similar in Sierra Leone,” reports The Guardian.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2014 at 5:09pm
We jinxed it, Kilt
No real surprise, I guess. Mali was always a candidate for further spread given trade links and a common border with Guinea. Hopefully the little two year old recovers.
I know we're nowhere near out of the woods yet, cobber - but I'll take any improvement in that damned line right now. Thanks for the graph

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2014 at 3:48pm
You may want to read this article.

Specifically about the "funeral practices".

If you don't do these practices with corpses, the disease will not spread. Some 60% of cases come from doing stuff with corpses.

I spoke about it before but was suspended and called a bunch of names.

Well read this:

The Ebola crisis

The Economist-17 Oct 2014Share
For a disease like Ebola, much harder to catch, it is lower: estimates of Rο .... burial practices that involve touching, washing or kissing the body.


Much of the focus to date has been on the burial of the dead. Those who have died remain, for a while, very infectious, and funerals can bring people from some distance. Six months into the epidemic a WHO study concluded that 60% of all cases in Guinea were linked to traditional burial practices that involve touching, washing or kissing the body. All the earliest cases of the disease in Sierra Leone appear to have been contracted at a single large funeral in Guinea, one which was also crucial in reigniting the epidemic in that country.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2014 at 3:55pm

Bringing safer burial rituals to Ebola outbreak countries

PBS NewsHour-14 Oct 2014Share
A woman grieves as the body of her sister is carried away by anEbola burial team to be cremated on Oct. 10 in Monrovia, Liberia. The burial of ...


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prairie One Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 25 2014 at 10:10pm
Originally posted by Kilt2 Kilt2 wrote:

You may want to read this article.

Specifically about the "funeral practices".

If you don't do these practices with corpses, the disease will not spread. Some 60% of cases come from doing stuff with corpses.

I spoke about it before but was suspended and called a bunch of names.

Well read this:

<h3 ="r="" _u6c"="" style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: nowrap; overflow: ; text-overflow: ellipsis; color: rgb68, 68, 68; font-family: arial, sans-serif; : rgb255, 255, 255;">[URL=http://www.economist.com/news/international/21625813-ebola-epidemic-west-africa-poses-catastrophic-threat-region-and-could-yet]The <span style="font-weight: bold;]Ebola</span> crisis[/URL]</h3><div ="slp"="" style="margin-bottom: 1px; color: rgb68, 68, 68; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 15.6000003814697px; : rgb255, 255, 255;"><span ="_tqb="" _iid"="" style="color: rgb0, 102, 33;">The Economist</span><span ="_v5"="" style="color: rgb102, 102, 102; padding: 0px 4px;">-</span><span ="f="" nsa="" _uqb"="" style="color: rgb102, 102, 102; display: inline-block;">17 Oct 2014</span><span ="_c7c"="" style="color: rgb102, 102, 102;"><a ="_pqc"="" -ci="srslc_5" -desc="For a disease like Ebola, much harder to catch, it is lower: estimates of Rο .... burial practices that involve touching, washing or kissing the body." data-sli="srsl_5" data-title="The Ebola crisis" data-url="http://www.economist.com/news/international/21625813-ebola-epidemic-west-africa-poses-catastrophic-threat-region-and-could-yet" data-vli="srslcl_5" id="srsl_5" data-slg="webres" role="button" tabindex="0" jsaction="srl.s" data-ved="0CDsQ5hkwBQ" style="text-decoration: inherit; cursor: pointer; margin-left: 5px; color: rgb(102, 0, 153);"><span ="_chb"="" style="color: rgb170, 170, 170; visibility: inherit;">Share</span></a></span>
<div ="st"="" style="line-height: 1.24; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb68, 68, 68; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; : rgb255, 255, 255;">For a disease like <span style="font-weight: bold;">Ebola</span>, much harder to catch, it is lower: estimates of Rο .... <span style="font-weight: bold;">burial practices</span> that involve touching, washing or kissing the body.<div ="st"="" style="line-height: 1.24; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb68, 68, 68; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; : rgb255, 255, 255;">
<div ="st"="" style="line-height: 1.24; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb68, 68, 68; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; : rgb255, 255, 255;">
<div ="st"="" style="line-height: 1.24; word-wrap: break-word; color: rgb68, 68, 68; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; : rgb255, 255, 255;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 23px;">Much of the focus to date has been on the burial of the dead. Those who have died remain, for a while, very infectious, and funerals can bring people from some distance. Six months into the epidemic a WHO study concluded that 60% of all cases in Guinea were linked to traditional burial practices that involve touching, washing or kissing the body. All the earliest cases of the disease in Sierra Leone appear to have been contracted at a single large funeral in Guinea, one which was also crucial in reigniting the epidemic in that country.</span>


You posted some pretty offensive stuff Kilt. That is why you were suspended. You aren't a victim and you should stop acting as one. It is getting old.
Interested....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2014 at 2:17am
I posted the same stuff discussed on the News here - offensive it may be - but it was the truth.

Here I have just called it "funeral practices" without being specific because saying exactly what those "practices" are because some poor souls find reality offensive.

But they cause 60% of the infections none the less - offensive or not. 

The truth is still the truth.

Is this offensive?

Bringing safer burial rituals to Ebola outbreak countries

PBS NewsHour-14 Oct 2014Share
A woman grieves as the body of her sister is carried away by anEbola burial team to be cremated on Oct. 10 in Monrovia, Liberia. The burial of ..


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2014 at 7:19am
No. It is true. It's well documented both in the world and here. It has much to do with the African outbreak and therefore could break the chains if the practices were altered. But not all the chains. There is now more driving it's growth. We saw in Dallas an infection rate of 2 amongst HCW's. No burial issues here. A 2, with enough starting fluid (no pun), encircles the planet over time. But the biggest footnote in this outbreak to me is the burial practices of many Africans and in particular, African Muslims, caused this the biggest threat to mankind we may have ever seen. If we are able to stop it it will only be because of our actions and not nature. Likewise, it can also be said of it's outbreak. My opinion.
"And then there were none."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2014 at 10:48am
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