Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Will Delta return ? |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
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Posted: May 05 2022 at 10:35pm |
[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/ ; There is a real danger of another international COVID wave this summer, with the Delta variant possibly poised to make a comeback, new Israeli research suggests. The peer-reviewed study is based on cutting-edge Israeli monitoring of sewage, which reveals not only the prevalence of coronavirus cases, but also their variant. It showed that even at the height of the Omicron wave, the previous Delta variant hadn’t been wiped out, even though it was expected to be based on the dynamics of previous waves.
“The resulting model predicts a significant decrease in Omicron levels within the near future, diminishing until fully disappearing. Furthermore, the Delta is also expected to decrease, but at a much lower pace, thereby still maintaining a low (yet non-vanishing) level of cryptic circulation in the population, before starting to rise again due to the waning immunity.” Peer reviewed study: Cryptic circulation of the Delta variant during the Omicron rise DJ, I think there are some misunderstandings; -People can get infected by more then just one variant of CoViD-so they may have had BOTH Omicron AND Delta...but the Delta-virus-part may be missed. -"Deltacron" recombinations DO have a Delta-part that may develop later on if there is enough spread. -Omicron variants resulted in very high numbers-but it did not stop all of the Delta-spread. If you have two million new cases of wich only 10,000 are Delta=0,5% it may be easy-but wrong-to ignore. see [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/604[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/604 ; Not having been assigned through this designation page In the late summer 2021 a sublineage of AY.98.1 characterized by Orf3a:Y109C and Nuc: G370T emerged in Germany and it is circulating there through today: -[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected Even with an explosive growth of Omicron-Delta still 42% of all global CoViD-sequences. Last Delta-cases detected often <1 month old. There are 250 (+) subvariants of Delta. DJ-One question could be wich variant (VOC) has more "flexibility" for further spread; answer could be BOTH !!! Delta and Omicron may keep finding ways for more spread. Of course "Omicron" in fact is several VOC's not one. BA.2 and BA.4/5 did gain ground over BA.1 variants. BA.3 was a sort of recombination of BA.1 and BA.2 never became big... |
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