Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Will we escape the BF virus by 4-01-06 ? |
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Posted: February 10 2006 at 1:15pm |
Will the Yes, a synthetic vaccine will be found. No, we are doomed to viral pandemic chaos . I want to know what is the forum's general consensus regarding this viral threat. I realize the choices are limited especially in regard to the |
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chefmom
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 31 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 85 |
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Nope, we're all doomed! Unless of course you are here. My reason, thoes sneaky b$#%&*ds are covering up too much and moving way too slow. Remember Katrina? Took them forever to help those poor people and that was from a hurrican & levee breach. Think they can do a better job with something they can't even see? Well, I can always hope and sing the Annie song about the sun coming up tommorow! |
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May God protect us all.
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chefmom
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 31 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 85 |
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p.s. I hope I'm wrong!
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May God protect us all.
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I feel we shall see it here, but I am hoping that it's mutated at least a lettle to make it not as deadly. However I do think it will be around April/May
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A few knowledgeable friends of mine share the opinion that there is a full force scientific front working on a breakthrough with a synthetic vaccine. I emphasize synthetic because it is far easier to mass produce than the natural vaccine. |
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Purim
Valued Member Joined: February 06 2006 Status: Offline Points: 7 |
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March 15th |
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February 24th.
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Tired
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 170 |
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I am not going to make an assumptions on dates, times, places ect. NOBODY
knows if this is going to go Pandemic. True, the facts and evidence are slowly mounting, but nobody knows. |
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Better to be safe than sorry.... |
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stardust
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 224 |
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August
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"Prepping is Power"!
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Gwyphn
Valued Member Joined: February 10 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 92 |
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No, I don't claim psychic powers ( so I choose not to hasten a guess as
to when) but I am a "high risk" individuals who was not able to get the
flu shot this year because they ran out. How many people not in
the special group also did not recieve the vacine? All it takes is one
person with the current flu who also contracts bird flu to hasten a
mutation... Can a pandemic be far off?
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For generations we have lived not wisely but too well. Now we must pay.
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sweets
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 08 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 239 |
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I am going to see how March pans out in HK. If it doesnt get completely out of control in March (see Statement) Hong Kong's Center for Health Protection consultant Dr. Thomas Tsang said from now to March is the peak season for avian flu. He urged people to observe good personal hygiene and avoid contact with wild birds and live poultry. People should clean their hands thoroughly after coming into contact with birds, and all poultry should be thoroughly cooked before consumption, he added. Enditem I will head over there as planned in April-May. reason 1. While they may have the bird flu they are on alert and taking measures to fight it! Alert system, Backyard poultry ban and such. reson 2. The news actually reports on the bird flu on a daily basis I think by the time it arrives here it will be more than too late! It is as usual here in the news, if something doesn't directly touch us it isn't reported on. Also this government is not ready for a pandemic or a panic which they will have as soon as true honest reports of BF start coming in closer to home. JUST MY OPINION
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I'm not a ribbering Jidiot!
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Mid March to Mid April...we will get the H5N1 that the migrating birds are carrying...but wheather or not it will be H2H by that time is the big unanswered question....best to keep eyes and ears on Africa and Italy right now..and hope for the best...it will only take one person out of the over 6 and falf billion people that are on this planet for the virus to mutate..i like my odds better in winning the lottery...imagine it will only take one person out of 6 and a half billion..not good odds if you ask me...
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When it goes H2H the news will carry nonstop, enough so that we will be sick of it. When they should be doing at least some now. I haven't heard on TV that it's even in Africa. Now I am in Canada, but we are generally upto date.
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shrug
Valued Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 21 |
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The head of my company's health department spoke to us about avian flu. He used an analogy of rolling dice to explain the difficulty of predicting the pandemic. He said that it is like you have 6 dice, how long will it take to roll 6 sixes? You might roll them soon, or later, but each time you roll, your chances increase. H5N1 being in Nigeria would probably add a few rolls. |
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Welcome aboard Shrug, interesting analogy, but I thought that each time you rolled the dice the odds stayed exactly the same. Like flipping a coin: each time it's exactly a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Could be wrong though, brain's a bit foggy this time of the night. But I agree about Nigeria, or the African Continent.... fate has sped up the time-table. |
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shrug
Valued Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 21 |
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I probably phrased it badly. It was more like, How many times will you need to roll six dice before they come up all sixes? I think that's different than the likelihood of any one roll being all sixes. But I think you get the point. There's no way to predict when it will happen, but if you keep rolling the dice, sooner or later it's going to happen. It made sense when the doctor said it.
Edited by shrug |
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Yes, that makes sense. And unfortunately a very accurate representation of what's going on. there's a whole bunch of dice being thrown in a whole bunch of places.
Edited by SophiaZoe |
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I've always used the analogy of shuffling cards and dealing a royal flush off the top of the deck.
Odds, about 1 in 640,000 Some people go their entire lives and never see one. I've had 4 in the last 3 years. But then I play a lot of poker! The more hosts being dealt the virus, the better the chance that one of them will hit the royal flush. The law of averages says, anything that can happen, will. It's just a matter of time. |
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The flu is now in 39 cities in Turkey (2/12/06). The headlines soon will read, "Bird Flu in Mayberry. Not to Worry, Barney is in-charge." This is scary. Get a grip and cope. It's not just Bird Flu. Swine Flu may mutate and cats become infected when they eat an infected bird. Read the posts from the folks who are "prepping". Get it now, it won't be available then. |
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Welcome Doug!
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Fiddlerdave
Valued Member Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 259 |
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The BF (B2B) will probably be here by April, or very shortly thereafter, IF it isn't here already. NO vaccines, of any kind for a minimum of 2 years. Has to emerge first! That technology is still primitive, too. H2H may come sooner even than the B2B, since Africa is an excellant breeding ground for mutations with the poor medical care, high disease rate, and crowding in cities and refugee camps. Edited by Fiddlerdave |
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Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"! |
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CaGirl
Valued Member Joined: February 08 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 7 |
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In my opinion this virus has been like smoldering fire. It seems to be travelling faster-possibly the mutations. Given enough fuel-hosts and transmission anything is possible but like a snowball it is gaining speed which concerns me. It is my hope that scientists can make a vaccine which can be reproduced quickly. A new vaccine is very possible and would make this prepper very happy. However, in the USA alone we need somewhere around 297 million doses-seems to me like that could take a while synthetic or not. I want to be optimistc but it is getting rapidly worse daily. We continue to be in a wait and see situation all the time-if it continues to spread so quickly I guess 60 days overseas. I have no idea about arriving in the States. I wish I knew when-it would be helpful to all.
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Don't be called out on strikes. Go down swinging.
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