Zika not that much of a problem

Despite all the Hoopla around Zika, the bottom line is it still is not that much of a problem, nor has it been since it was discovered decades ago. Perhaps, an interesting headline still based on numbers which never were accurate as to how many people had it, in terms of a threat to babies or people, one wonders why it has been pushed so much in the press.

http://www.newser.com/story/222134/99-of-babies-born-to-moms-with-zika-are-normal.html

99% of Babies Born to Moms With Zika Are Normal

A new study on the Zika virus may or may not allay pregnant women's fears: Researchers in French Polynesia have strengthened the link between Zika and microcephaly, though they say just one in 100 pregnant women infected in the first trimester of pregnancy developed a fetus with an abnormally small brain or head. The rate—based on an outbreak from October 2013 to April 2014 during which 66% of the population was infected—"means you have a 99% chance of having a normal baby," an expert says, per the New York Times. That's remarkable considering a child born to a woman with rubella in early pregnancy has a 50% risk of birth defects, per the Guardian. However, researchers caution that the rate of microcephaly tied to Zika may vary greatly depending on the outbreak and location. Researchers identified eight babies born with microcephaly from September 2013 to July 2015. Previously, about two cases per 10,000 newborns was the norm. Though the mothers weren't tested for Zika, seven cases were discovered around the end of the outbreak between March and July 2014 and "such temporal clustering strongly supports the proposed association" between Zika and microcephaly, researchers say. "It's still a large public health problem," a researcher notes.

comment: Zika has been in Nigeria since 1954 and most of the population are immune to it. As I had posted months ago a person has to be tested within days. During the first week after onset of symptoms, Zika virus disease can often be diagnosed by performing reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on serum.

The problem with this is Dengue Fever can cause a false positive and there have been a growing number of outbreaks recently of Dengue throughout the world.

In addition to this, it was found that many cases of microencephaly had been caused by a chemical used to spray mosquitoes in tropical areas manufactured by the Monsanto Chemical Company. There was a roaring debate on this and Monsanto even sued people for saying this. Source for some of this is here.

http://ecowatch.com/2016/02/12/larvicide-cause-not-zika/

“Previous Zika epidemics did not cause birth defects in newborns, despite infecting 75 percent of the population in those countries,” the paper said. “Also, in other countries such as Colombia there are no records of microcephaly; however, there are plenty of Zika cases.”

Indeed, as The Ecologist observed from PCST’s report, Colombia has so far diagnosed 3,177 pregnant women with the Zika virus, but these women gave birth to healthy babies or are carrying healthy fetuses.

Sumitomo Chemical says on the Sumilarv website that the product “not only poses minimal risk to mammals, birds and fish; it also allows it to be applied to drinking water. Application to the aquatic breeding sites of mosquitoes ensures a rapid decline of the adult mosquito population significantly reducing bite rates.”

comment: What is there about "previous Zika epidemics did not cause birth defects in newborns, despite infecting 75 percent of the population" is hard to understand. It has been in Nigeria 62 years and most of the people are immune to it.

For one, disease is big business. Even the company developing the new test for it, and there is one - http://www.pharmacypracticenews.com/Clinical/Article/03-16/FDA-Approves-New-CDC-Laboratory-Test-for-Zika-Virus/35481

But as I, and Dr. Henry Niman said months ago (still can't reach him) other similar viruses of which Dengue is one with many recent outbreaks, can produce false positives.

However, the test can give a false positive. These false-positive results can occur when someone has been infected with another closely related virus, such as dengue virus. When positive or inconclusive results occur, the CDC or a CDC-authorized laboratory will perform additional testing (plaque reduction neutralization test) to confirm the presence of antibodies to Zika virus.

comment: So, if more than a few days have passed - the titer of the antibodies left likely will not be enough to detect Zika. This is not an accurate or efficient way to test people. Often they do not go to hospital and rarely get that sick from the disease.

With global warming, mosquitoes are able to survive much further north and the nasty http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/aedes-aegypti-meet-mosquito-spreading-zika-virus-panic-n504026

Aedes-aegypti mosquito has been found in New York and Washington D.C. in grates and places when it was snowing or had been verified.

What is the bottom line here?  Well, no matter if it is all over - if people can develop antibodies to it and do not die from it or very few of the babies born to infected mothers - less than 1% of more commonly 1 in 10,000 how much a threat is Zika really?

Is it a paper tiger hyped by the press and media at a time when there are much more significant issues - even Dengue Fever - HIV - and the show stopper of them all - Swine Flu which could mutate or Ebola and take down countries and their infrastructure? Perhaps. They can worry about the Olympics - others can worry about the fact that we are long overdue for MERS - and a host of other very lethal - some 30% CFR diseases that will take down nations.

Medclinician