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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

10 MORE on cruise ship positive, 20 so far
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KiminNM View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 05 2020 at 3:56pm
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/shutoken-news/20200206/1000043608.html

10 new cases of cruise ship infection
Feb 06 08:45

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, a virus test was conducted on people who had symptoms such as fever and their close contacts on a cruise ship on which a Hong Kong man infected with the new coronavirus was on board, and 10 people were infected with the virus. Was newly confirmed.
So far, a total of 20 passengers have been infected with this cruise ship.
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KiminNM View Drop Down
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I'm guessing that gives us our first known super spreader? Or the second if you count the one that gave it to multiple hospital workers.
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Whilst it must a living hell of worry for those trapped on board, it's a gift to the rest of the world as we will now have a sealed event unfolding in front of us and it can be properly monitored and accurately reported. 3700 people is a good sample group.

Were I running the show, I would test every single person on board, and then test them all again in 7 days time and then again in another 7 days. See who is testing positive but showing no symptoms etc.

Poor sods. I'd hate to be on it myself. But hopefully they'll get excellent care. It can become a floating hospital.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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They'll start taking off the ill ones, but with the virus surviving for days on surfaces (5 to 28!), I imagine the infections will continue occurring.

Very macabre. It's like the Hunger Games, picking off its victims. Horrible.

Then imagine the wait, and surprise, an horror, to find out you were infected.

My prayers go to all of them now.

I hope that the CFR turns out to be very low, and the existence of quality medical care makes a big difference.
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I think it is comming down as new treatments are tried. Let's hope!
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Whilst it must a living hell of worry for those trapped on board, it's a gift to the rest of the world as we will now have a sealed event unfolding in front of us and it can be properly monitored and accurately reported. 3700 people is a good sample group.

Were I running the show, I would test every single person on board, and then test them all again in 7 days time and then again in another 7 days. See who is testing positive but showing no symptoms etc.

Poor sods. I'd hate to be on it myself. But hopefully they'll get excellent care. It can become a floating hospital.
Absolutely. This is an incredible horror to those poor sods on board, but a gift to the rest of the world. Last count 20 positive tests and another cruise ship under suspicion.

Gods what a nightmare!
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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KiminNM View Drop Down
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From the passenger tweeting from the ship, this was 4 hours ago:

だぁ(On board the Diamond Princess / 乗船中)
@daxa_tw
近くの客室から外国の方の苦しそうな咳がず�£と聞こえています。本人の事はもちろん心配ですが、�£�事の運搬や部屋の掃除はクルーが部屋から部屋へ順に行うので怖いです。場合によ�£ては昨日からの14日間では足りない事になります。今日や明日感染するかも。
Translated from Japanese by
I can always hear the painful cough of foreigners from nearby rooms. Of course I'm worried about myself, but I'm afraid that crews carry meals and clean rooms from room to room in order. In some cases, 14 days from yesterday may not be enough. May be infected today or tomorrow.
2:46 PM · Feb 5, 2020·Twitter for Android

-----
Edited to add: The comments on the post ask if they've received any disinfectant - they haven't. They also haven't received a mask.

-----

Coughing passengers still on the ship? That makes some logistical sense, because yesterday the British man posted that they had to leave port and keep moving in order to make water. But it means they're all being re-exposed.

I can't even imagine. :-(
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Well this shows how keeping people some ill and some well is not a good idea especially if no masks, no way to keep servers from spreading it room to room, through shared air, or not washing hands, or coughing.

These poor people are living a nightmare BabyCat is right, Hunger Games!!!
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https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-infections-double-among-japan-cruise-ship-passengers/a-52273500
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Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Whilst it must a living hell of worry for those trapped on board, it's a gift to the rest of the world as we will now have a sealed event unfolding in front of us and it can be properly monitored and accurately reported. 3700 people is a good sample group.

Were I running the show, I would test every single person on board, and then test them all again in 7 days time and then again in another 7 days. See who is testing positive but showing no symptoms etc.

Poor sods. I'd hate to be on it myself. But hopefully they'll get excellent care. It can become a floating hospital.


YES!!!! THIS!!! Test everyone so we can get an idea of how this spreads...If they test part/all now and then do nothing for 14 days - the staff will be going room to room with meals etc to still possibly be spreading it. Something I've thought about is footware/clothing spreading this, if it can live on surfaces up to 28 days - and you have staff (even the medical personnel) going person/room to person/room... a nightmare biosecurity wise to try to prevent spread!
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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That's quite an idea you have there! A good one. What better microcosm to gain data from than a cruise ship?
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/06/104d0532-4869-11ea-8124-0ca81effcdfb_story.html

Live Updates
Coronavirus live updates: Another 41 people test positive for coronavirus on quarantined cruise ship
Feb. 6, 2020 at p7:59:00 p.m. EST
Refresh for updates
BREAKING: Another 41 people test positive for coronavirus on quarantined cruise ship in Japan, health minister says
The latest test results, from the remaining 171 people who were tested for the virus, mean that 61 people have tested positive for the virus, according to Japan’s Health Minister, Katsunobu Kato. The ship, with about 3,700 passengers and crew, has been placed in a 14-day quarantine in the port of Yokohama, south of Tokyo.
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They better test everyone & I mean EVERYone on that ship!!! To only test 171 (if I'm reading this right) is ridiculous!

This data could be (as Kiwimom said above) our best chance to get REAL numbers!

I am SO glad I'm not on that cruise ship - Wow - horrifying!
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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This cruise ship scenario is one of my worst fears. The hubby and I (and several cousins) are booked on a cruise to Alaska from Seattle at the end of April. In my mind, I’m thinking that we won’t be making this trip...while I’m also hoping that this just fizzles out so we can all go.
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What a nightmare. I almost wished I hadn't watched videos of the nice British man sailing with his wife on their anniversary. I will cry if he gets it. He has diabetes too. :-(
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KiminNM hey - go check out the post under general "Sacrificing a Province to save the World" - there is another video of the British chap on there!
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Originally posted by Newbie1A Newbie1A wrote:

They better test everyone & I mean EVERYone on that ship!!! To only test 171 (if I'm reading this right) is ridiculous!

This data could be (as Kiwimom said above) our best chance to get REAL numbers!

I am SO glad I'm not on that cruise ship - Wow - horrifying!


If they really tested so few of the passengers, this is an incredibly high infection rate. Another 41 have tested positive, 61 total, out of how many tested?
Prep on!

QP
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At first I thought, what an opportunity to study the behavior of this virus in a closed environment like a cruise ship. Then it occurred to me last night that the environment on a cruise ship must be like a petrie dish culturing the virus. What a nightmare for passengers!
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