Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
100% death rate on Egyptian Birdflu.... |
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Posted: December 27 2006 at 5:54pm |
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gnfin,
Thanks for the update but I didn't see where the 100% death rate comes into play??? 10 deaths out of 18 infected is around 55% death rate. We'll never know for sure with all the Tamifluers and the slightly ill who stay at home to avoid scrutiny.
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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This is caused by Replikin count.. http://www.pharmalive.com/News/index.cfm?articleid=402531&categoryid=40
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Cruiser referring to the last three cases. Each one of them died...
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Margreth
Adviser Group Joined: December 14 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 49 |
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The death rate is very high in countries that have a lower number of flu victems. Which can be intrepreted as the virus is more virulant and has a higher death rate or only the very sick are coming forward.
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The door to hell locked from the inside. The key to being all that you can be is yours to use. Find your power
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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I was just referring to the last three deaths in Egypt. they were the last three we heard about that had the virus.
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Margreth, I'm putting my money on the latter of your two statements. I read an in depth study recently on the clusters in Indonesia where there was further evidence of others infected but only presented mild symptoms which I would suspect go untreated and unaccounted for. We just don't know all we could know or should know and I don't hold any hope of that ever changing. I just find it so frustrating that the precious few actual facts that we do get about this virus are continually abused and manipulated for the sake of headlines.
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Margreth
Adviser Group Joined: December 14 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 49 |
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Poverty plays a big part in this virus will play out and interfer with the real numbers of the flu cases being documented.
Not everyone can afford a doctor. In truth I dont go to the doctor for a flu unless there are secondary symtems (lingering congestion , fever vomiting that lasted more than two days.)otherwise most people just tough it out. Its a given that indivuals living with exteme poverty would not go to a doctor with a mild formof anything.. I just dont see anyone doing any real tracking of the virus. Only the real severe cases would even show up on the satistis. Poverty changes how the pattern of the virus is tracked. |
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The door to hell locked from the inside. The key to being all that you can be is yours to use. Find your power
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I have a friend who traveled to India this year, and he managed to get very, very ill. He refused to go to the hospital, because, as he put it, the locals say that's where you go to die.
Knowing that, I'd think that in most developing countries, one wouldn't be able to accurately track the statistics because of that thought pattern - you go to the hospital/doctor to die...
And thus, as has been said already, the stats might not be reflective of the actual mortality rate. At least, that's my hope, because that would be good news.
Best to all-
Lady Me
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Judy
Valued Member Joined: August 24 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 402 |
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The stats may not reflect the actual mortality rates, but that is not necessarily good news. There have been deaths of "suspected" or "probable" H5N1 infections where the body had been properly disposed of and we would not have even heard about had no one else in the family also been infected and hospitalized/died, and this was mostly clusters. So my thinking is that others have died who have not been reported or even suspected. And the stats only reflect WHO confirmed cases at any rate, and we all know there have been deaths of siblings and parents who were never tested and confirmed and so are not added to the stats. Also, these tests are expensive and in confirmed cases with like symptoms in neighbors and/or family, especially if they are already dead, the tests are not run for that very reason. The dead then become a "suspected" or "probable" but being unconfirmed they are not counted. I think the death rate may be higher and I also think that poverty contributes to that. As Margreth said, " Poverty changes how the pattern of the virus is tracked. "
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If ignorance is bliss, what is chocolate?
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headinthesand
Valued Member Joined: December 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 5 |
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Got a link to that study, Cruiser? I have been reading just the opposite.
The 100% CFR in Egypt is for this season, October to present.
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Surely 100% death rate means a pandemic is a bit less likely .
Anything less means more sick or partially recovered people walking around infecting others. Its when the death rate drops that you really have to worry. |
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HITS,
I just took my numbers from the original article....
"To date this year, 18 human cases of Bird flu have been reported in the country resulting in 10 fatalities." I am still missing the part where it said 100% CFR. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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I have never seen any evidence to support the idea that the virus would have to weaken before making the jump. I have not read anything about this nor have any leading experts ever suggested it. If there is something published regarding this, I would like to see it, otherwise, it's just speculation.
There could also be some other factors why this last cluster had such a high death rate.
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Albert - if the host dies the virus has a much shorter time span to be
passed on to other people , than if the host is alive or even l walking around. Clearly a virus that becomes weaker has a much better chance of infecting other people . |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Hi Ross, I have heard that theory before on this forum, but I have never heard anything else about it. Unless there is research to support it, then it quite simply is not true. No experts that I have seen have ever hinted or suggested that it would weaken as even a remote possibility. Having said that, if you can prove your argument, I would like to see some information about it. |
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Virus's don't have brains, so they really don't know if their life span is shortened by killing the host. They spread fast already, Look at how it kills within the bird population, the farmer goes to bed at night and wakes up next morning and 4 or 5000 of his chickens are dead. We know so little about how it's really going to react in the human population, until it goes H2H. Maybe some people will become carriers of the disease and won't die for months, just go around and spread the virus, others might get it in the morning and be dead by night, we haven't a clue until it happens.
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Laro - I am not saying that it cannot become a pandemic with a 100%
fatality rate . In fact I think it highly likely that many less well organized counties in Africa will take a very heavy hit. However it is easier for wealthier , better organised communties to keep some sort of lid on it if there are no survivor/carriers roaming in the community . I think you are assuming that Goverments and people will keep on doing what they normal do . If the fatality rate is 100% ( or even 10% ) Goverments will implement very harsh controls ( freedom of movement etc ) and most people will start exercising social distancing and other protective measures. The other issue is ofcourse , is how long the incubation period is and how infectious the person is during the early stages . |
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kparcell
Valued Member Location: Florida Joined: June 03 2006 Status: Offline Points: 541 |
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grfn
Thank you for your link to info on "replikin count" above. I think this a very important piece of bad news and I'm posting this reply to draw our attention back to it. Your link was to: http://www.pharmalive.com/News/index.cfm?articleid=402531&categoryid=40 I'd like to see a statistical analysis that tells us what replikin count we might expect in 2007, if any, based on this trend. |
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Ros-- you and i both know that every government will try to downplay any type of in H5N1 outbreak. If it goes pandmic, let's at least admit that if it's 10% infection, the government will downplay it and maybe admit to 1%. Did the US government even admit in 1918 that we had a pandamic going? Absolutely not, they even sent sick service men to war in Europe and the spread of the flu was worse then ever. Do you even think things are better today and a government is more honest now? Take a look at recent history, Watergate, Vietnam War, today's gulf war & the "weapons fo mass destruction" crap.
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Laro - I dont doubt that there would be many in Goverment who would
see censorship as an important tool in managing a Pandemic threat , but whether they could successfully do it in an Internet Age is an open question . |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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An h5n1 panflu could be a difficult one to get through for a lot of people. If you don't think that you could get to tamiflu within the initial 48 hours of the symptoms appearing, then the other plan would have to entail somewhat of extreme isolation in your home. You would have to wait it out until the vax is developed or until tamiflu is distributed.
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Albert - It seems to me that for many and possibly for most , staying at
home will not be an option . Many live hand-to-mouth , they need to work to put food on the table and even in richer countries .... how will they keep up those mortgage payments ? or pay the rent ? Unpaid loan interest money quickly becomes compound interest , its lose your expensive house or risk death . |
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Margreth
Adviser Group Joined: December 14 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 49 |
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I think Ross theory is based on the fact that virus like Ebola kill most people who get it. Therefore the vrus ends. The higher the death rate the quicker the virus burns out. It not aexact science or is it.
If the virus death rate dropped then there would be more people spreading the illness befor it could be contained. |
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The door to hell locked from the inside. The key to being all that you can be is yours to use. Find your power
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Margreth
Adviser Group Joined: December 14 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 49 |
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Censorship is alive and well all over the world. |
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The door to hell locked from the inside. The key to being all that you can be is yours to use. Find your power
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Margrett
I am sure it is . But it more open democratic countries the truth frequently rises to the surface anyway . The point I think is , that if our Government introduced strict censorship or just plain lied but failed because of the internet , then they would run the risk of completely losing the peoples trust which would make further managment of the Pandemic even more difficult. |
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cap1
Adviser Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 45 |
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Albert: I have seen numerous medical articles suggesting that viral transmission is generally more effiecient when it doesn't kill its host too quickly, as Ross suggested. The articles I have read suggest that viruses with such high lethality kill their hosts before they can establish a sufficient presence to become a pandemic. I will try and find some of these articles and provide a link. That said, I did not see specific citations to underlying studies to support that conclusion. However, I have seen most of the official "worst-case" scenarios in the US and the UK rely on the 1918 mortality rates (2-3%) sometimes adding a multiplier of to bring this up to 10%. I have seen no serious projections of anything higher in a pandemic situation.
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cap1
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Hi cap1, good to hear from you. If the host lives, the natural immune system might kill the virus in a matter of a few days. In some cases, the virus might live longer by killing its host over time, before the immune system kills it. Quite honestly, I don't think it matters much one way or another. Now, just because it's as lethal as it is, that doesn't mean that the CFR and mortality rate can't be held down to a minimum. From using natural remedies, to tamiflu blankets, to home isolation & quarantines, and with everybody working together, there are many things that we could do to keep the overall CFR well under 10%. |
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cap1 - I seems to me that it is not quite so straight forward as saying that 100% human fatality rate means fewer people infected hence no Pandemic .
It depends also on factors like .. 1. The length of the incubation period . 2. Whether birds and perhaps other creatures are carrying a version of H5N1 which is easily transmitted H2H . 3. Other carriers do not all die ( ie ducks , poultry ). But if it is really 100% or near to , its probably not going to stay that high for very long anyway. Which ever way you look at it , it sounds like Egypt , where people live in close contact with their poultry is in for real trouble sooner or later. |
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gnfin
V.I.P. Member Location: California Joined: December 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1364 |
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Interesting!
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