Africa

Some weeks back it was warned that Africa might become the "next epicentre" of the pandemic.  This was just as South America was ramping up.

I have been following the official data out of Africa. Up to now, if one believes the official data, Africa has been largely spared.  

North Africa was early hit, but it seems that there has been not explosion of cases, just a steady number from places like Algeria and Egypt. The exception in North Africa is Libya which has very few cases reported, but that might be expected from a place wracked with civil war.

The exception to the low figures is that in the last few days the data for South Africa shows that things might be 'taking off' there.     Currently they are reporting 21,343 case (last day 1,218 cases) and 407 deaths.  

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I am finding huge variation of the rate of cases reported from various countries, leading me to conclude that only a few countries (mainly the smaller countries) are testing on a wide scale so the official figures are therefore very low. 

For example the cases per million population in Eastern African countries vary from 3 to 4,916.  Middle African countries are a little closer in the spread from 2 to 825. Western Africa seems more consistent as their range is from 10 to 573.   Northern Africa, excluding Libya (see above) has the closest range: 73 to 200. 

[url]https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.PHYS.ZS[/url] physicians per 1000 people - world bank

[url]https://qz.com/520230/africa-has-about-one-doctor-for-every-5000-people/[/url]  (also in remote area's there is no access to healthcare) ;

In 2013, sub-Saharan Africa had a deficit of an estimated 1.8 million health workers, according to a WHO report—this deficit is projected to rise to 4.3 million by 2035. There are a number of reasons for the shortfall, including a lack of funding for education and training, international migration and career changes among health workers, illness, premature retirement, and even premature deaths.

But one reason is particularly glaring: The inadequacy of the region’s current healthcare education system. Currently, there are only 170 medical schools serving the 47 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Of those countries, 6 have no medical schools, and 20 have only one medical school.