"ALASKA in 3 weeks", West Coast in Fall "

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UPDATE: Avian Flu Expected In U.S. This Spring; Stocks Ignited 

Mar 29, 2006 | 2:37PM  (excerpt)

NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- U.S. government officials monitoring the spread of avian influenza are expecting the first case to reach Alaska in about three weeks and to hit the West Coast by autumn, Prudential Equity Group said Wednesday.

The H5 pathogen has been confirmed in 51 or more countries, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health, causing the culling of millions of birds across Asia, Europe and, more recently, the Middle East.

The first cases in the U.S. won't necessarily make humans ill -- only the bird version of the disease is expected here, at least initially, said Kim Monk, a Prudential senior health-care-policy analyst.

"The virus might only spread bird to bird or, rarely, bird to human, and it may or may not ever mutate into a human-to-human virus," said Monk. "So for now, the only real threat is to the poultry industry."

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20060329\ACQDJON200603291420DOWJONESDJONLINE000845.htm&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD&chk=unchecked?=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.na 

NEW YORK (AFX) "Among the companies most likely to benefit from the effort are Roche, thebiggest manufacturer of Tamiflu; GlaxoSmithKline , which makes the antiviralRelenza; and makers of cell-based vaccines such as Chrion , Solvay andSanofi-Aventis .

3M could gain attention if there's increased demand for protective papermasks, the analyst said.

    A flu index

    Trend Macroanalytics, a research firm serving institutional investors, has\taken its analysis a step further and created an "avian-flu index" comprising 17stocks in the health-care sector that can be expected to see a surge in demandfor their products should the flu become a threat to humans.

The index includes stocks like Embrex , a leader in "in ovo" technology forthe poultry industry; Hemispherx , whose interferon inducer Ampligen isconsidered a strong candidate as a flu treatment, and BioCryst and Generex ,which are both producing antivirals. 

Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro, said the index hasgained 105% since its inception last Aug. 31 and is up 40.5% so far in 2006.

Luskin said he considers the chance of mutation and a pandemic small.

"The reason why investors should buy these stocks, though, is because it isthe vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics of the companies in this sector that are making sure the pandemic doesn't happen," he said.

"Lots of money will be spent by governments -- spent with these companies --to be sure to prevent the worst case."

He likened the bird-flu situation to Y2K, when companies spent billions ofdollars upgrading technology to ensure computers could cope with the switch tothe new millennium. "The worst case didn't happen because people were warned,"he recalled.

Among the companies outside the health-care sector that might attract a

sales spurt from avian flu is Pall , which makes filtration systems that can

also be used in vaccine production as well as breathing ventilators that can beused to discourage the spread of viruses such as SARS and certain flu strains.

http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Avian-flu-expected-in-U-S--this-spring--stocks-ignited_14817279.html

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Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: "ALASKA in 3 weeks", West Coast in Fall " Posted: March 29 2006 at 11:47am
	UPDATE: Avian Flu Expected In U.S. This Spring; Stocks Ignited Mar 29, 2006 \| 2:37PM (excerpt) NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- U.S. government officials monitoring the spread of avian influenza are expecting the first case to reach Alaska in about three weeks and to hit the West Coast by autumn, Prudential Equity Group said Wednesday. The H5 pathogen has been confirmed in 51 or more countries, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health, causing the culling of millions of birds across Asia, Europe and, more recently, the Middle East. The first cases in the U.S. won't necessarily make humans ill -- only the bird version of the disease is expected here, at least initially, said Kim Monk, a Prudential senior health-care-policy analyst. "The virus might only spread bird to bird or, rarely, bird to human, and it may or may not ever mutate into a human-to-human virus," said Monk. "So for now, the only real threat is to the poultry industry." http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20060329\ACQDJON200603291420DOWJONESDJONLINE000845.htm&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD&chk=unchecked?=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.na NEW YORK (AFX) "Among the companies most likely to benefit from the effort are Roche, thebiggest manufacturer of Tamiflu; GlaxoSmithKline , which makes the antiviralRelenza; and makers of cell-based vaccines such as Chrion , Solvay andSanofi-Aventis . 3M could gain attention if there's increased demand for protective papermasks, the analyst said. A flu index Trend Macroanalytics, a research firm serving institutional investors, has\taken its analysis a step further and created an "avian-flu index" comprising 17stocks in the health-care sector that can be expected to see a surge in demandfor their products should the flu become a threat to humans. The index includes stocks like Embrex , a leader in "in ovo" technology forthe poultry industry; Hemispherx , whose interferon inducer Ampligen isconsidered a strong candidate as a flu treatment, and BioCryst and Generex ,which are both producing antivirals. Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro, said the index hasgained 105% since its inception last Aug. 31 and is up 40.5% so far in 2006. Luskin said he considers the chance of mutation and a pandemic small. "The reason why investors should buy these stocks, though, is because it isthe vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics of the companies in this sector that are making sure the pandemic doesn't happen," he said. "Lots of money will be spent by governments -- spent with these companies --to be sure to prevent the worst case." He likened the bird-flu situation to Y2K, when companies spent billions ofdollars upgrading technology to ensure computers could cope with the switch tothe new millennium. "The worst case didn't happen because people were warned,"he recalled. Among the companies outside the health-care sector that might attract a sales spurt from avian flu is Pall , which makes filtration systems that can also be used in vaccine production as well as breathing ventilators that can beused to discourage the spread of viruses such as SARS and certain flu strains. http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Avian-flu-expected-in-U-S--this-spring--stocks-ignited_14817279.html

drpepper Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: February 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 71	Post Options Post Reply Quote drpepper Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 11:53am
	"The first cases in the U.S. won't necessarily make humans ill at least initially" the stock market wants to make sure we still invest, just maybe not in chicken. that is all this article is basically saying. stocks are igniting? morons just my opinion..... and when the market collapses? well heck if money wont matter anyhow...maybe ill make a few bucks first

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 12:23pm
	http://www.greenwing.org/greenwings/duckstuff/flyways/pacifi cfly.htm

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 12:25pm
	Spectacled and Stellar Eiders Eiders are sea ducks found across the artic and subartic zones of the northern hemisphere. There are only four species in the world, and all breed in Alaska. the common, king and spectacled eiders are among the largest ducks found in North America, while the smaller stellar's eider is one of the most unique member of the duck family. Both the spectacled and stellar's eiders are endangered. Eiders have the physical characteristics of diving ducks, and typically the males have bold plumage pattersn of black and white, while the females are muted black, grey and brown. The ducks have commerical importance and their fluffy underlayer of feathers known as down, or eider down, is an excellent insulator and is collected from nests on "eider farms" in Iceland and Scandinavia and marketed in sleeping bags and comforters. http://www.lizasreef.com/HOPE%20FOR%20THE%20OCEANS/ sea_birds.htm "In the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, the eider has declined from 96,000 birds in the 1970's to fewer than 5,000 in 1992. Another 10,000 may inhabit Alaska's North Slope. It is threatened with poisoning from led shot, predation, and habitat loss associated with oil and gas operations. "Complex changes in fish and invertebrate populations in the Bering Sea may also be having an effect. The Spectacled eider was listed as a threatened species in 1993. http://www.endangeredearth.org/alerts/result.asp?index=727 "Larned (2001) reported that survey data indicated a 7.2% annual decline in migratingStelleras eiders (R= 0.806)" http://72.14.207.104/search?q=cache:n4j5DZRe9VsJ:www.mms.gov / Alaska/ref/EIS%2520EA/DEIS/Sections/Section%25203/COMBINED% 2520Section%2520III%2520-%2520Done.pdf+%22declined+unexpecte dly %22+avian&hl=en&gl=ca&ct=clnk&cd=1#119 "The cause(s) of the decline of nesting Steller eiders in Alaska are not clear (Quakenbush and Suydam,1999; UDOI, Fish and Wildlife Service, 2002). The Fish and Wildlife Service concluded (66 FR 8853) that there is no evidence that habitat loss and disturbance have played important roles in the decline of the species in Alaska."

chargingbear Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: March 22 2006 Status: Offline Points: 398	Post Options Post Reply Quote chargingbear Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 12:47pm
	my ? is will they ban duck and goose hunting this year they have in russia, see here http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060314/44285197.html why not here in the U$A and alaska, its because it about the $$$$$

Amethyst Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: March 14 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 203	Post Options Post Reply Quote Amethyst Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 1:37pm
	Three weeks? I thought it wasn't supposed to hit until summer. They sure keep shortening the timeframe. Next week, I bet it'll be within 72 hours or something. And they'll tell us to stock up for 6 months.

eska Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote eska Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 2:33pm
	The Indians along the Yukon are getting all excited about duck/geese hunting. Spring tradition that starts right before ice out but also important food source until salmon show up. Indians here still pretty much live off what the river provides and don't seem too concerned about getting sick. Quite a few of the white people around here keep chickens, just 10-20 for eggs. I'd be a little worried about that as these chickens are loose and wild birds come in for scraps. Nobody is getting rid of the chickens. I'd figure somebody will get sick across alaska if wild birds bring the flu with them.

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 2:37pm
	Just an FYI(for your information...migratory birds have not come back to were I live let me see lol...I hit the wrong button and i have to let the pup in

stockmama Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: March 17 2006 Status: Offline Points: 100	Post Options Post Reply Quote stockmama Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 3:21pm
	Oh. Wonderful. According to that chart we will get it spring AND fall! (North Idaho)--won't quite look at all the Canadian Geese that land in the field across the street the same way again. Anything special I should do now? Birds of a feather....awww hell

Gatorpoo Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: March 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19	Post Options Post Reply Quote Gatorpoo Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 3:30pm
	From what I understand, Canada Geese are not going to be a significant vector. They are grazers, it's the ducks, swans, etc. "dabblers" that are projected to be the biggest threat.

stockmama Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: March 17 2006 Status: Offline Points: 100	Post Options Post Reply Quote stockmama Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 29 2006 at 3:32pm
	Thanks! Though we have PLENTY of ducks here as well, they don't congregate across the street so much~!

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 30 2006 at 5:45am
	http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/migrationmap.html