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America in terminal decline. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Posted: June 06 2020 at 7:21pm |
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Here is an excellent article that has appeared in the papers here today. Before anyone gets upset by it, it's not anti- America, more it's commenting on the fact that America is debasing it's own currency and how that will affect the rest of world. Here's the article. America is in terminal decline, and that's dangerous for New ZealandOPINION: It is difficult to reconcile the images coming out of the United States with that country’s status as the only global superpower, holder of the reserve currency, and the world’s largest economy. Is America in terminal decline and is China poised to assume her mantle? Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, the US was in economic trouble. Since the GFC their central bank had been deploying a loose and distorting monetary policy while the federal government was running unsustainable deficits. Their last budget surplus was under President Clinton in 2001 and their debt-to-GDP ratio has soared past 100 percent in the last year. In response to the pandemic the deficit was pencilled to hit $4 trillion, 20 per cent of their annual GDP, and this does not include all the trillions of printed cash the Federal Reserve has been pouring into the financial system. There is no political will to make the adjustments required to balance the federal deficit and the exponentially rising debt makes any return to a rational monetary policy with positive interest rates impossible. Washington is unable to pay a commercial return on the $25 trillion that is now owing. An economy fuelled by deficits and devaluing the monetary base will eventually collapse. There is no American exceptionalism that makes their economy any different from Argentina’s. If they follow the same fiscal and monetary policies, they will end up with the same result. Compounding the economic and public health crisis, America is now in the grip of the worst bout of rioting since 1968. Many state governments lost control of their central business districts last week and 40 cities imposed curfews; most of them proving unenforceable. The brazenness of the rioters is breath-taking. Those engaged in looting are acting, rationally or not, as if the state has abdicated its responsibility to protect the lives and properties of its subjects and appear confident that will face no legal consequences for their actions. It is also remarkable how divergent the internal views are that Americans have about their own country; with some holding the country to be irredeemably racist while others find this characterisation a gross misrepresentation. This polarisation is either caused by or has created a fragmented media. It is difficult to watch Fox News and CNN and believe that they are covering the same events. America’s political leadership is equally dismal. Donald Trump can, at the most generous, be considered unconventional. In a time when his country needed him to show leadership, both in reaction to the pandemic and now the riots, he has shown himself either unwilling or unable to rise to the occasion. Barring a stroke of good fortune, his Democratic challenger will be the unimpressive, and increasingly incoherent, Joe Biden. Both parties are unable to elevate competent moderates to the top of their respective tickets. This is possibly the inevitable end-point of a democracy with such a large and heterogeneous population scattered over a vast continent with complex and unresolved historical issues. I certainly hope not but it is painful to watch such a beautiful country born of high aspirations and ugly compromises failing to live up to its potential. Many New Zealanders presumably are willing to believe the worst of America. I am not among them. I do not believe that one incident, or even a series, of malfeasance by police officers is evidence of a country permanently tainted by the original sin of slavery. For the purpose of this column, however, it does not matter who is right in the raging American cultural war that has now spilled from social media into the streets of American cities. What matters is that we are seeing an empire in decline. A nation that cannot control its own streets will soon be unable to control those of other lands. A central bank that is debasing its currency will be unable to maintain its role as the guardian of the global reserve currency. When dwindling tax revenues are needed at home the power to export soft power abroad will be lost. Ultimately an empire is built on its domestic economic base. While America isn’t an empire in the Soviet or British sense, lacking direct colonial possessions, it has acted and has been treated as the world’s reigning imperial power for 75 years. These days are coming to an end. For a small, vulnerable nation like New Zealand that has prospered under the wing of first the British and subsequently the American hegemony, these are dangerous times. For all of America’s many faults, a new world order dominated by Beijing, Moscow and Tehran is going to be considerably less agreeable than the one we have become used to; as the citizens of Hong Kong found out last month. China faces its own challenges and I believe the ruling party’s domestic authority is far more brittle than we assume but this may only increase Beijing’s desire for overseas adventures. China lacks the cultural pull of America but more than makes up for this in raw economic and increasingly military muscle. Perhaps Wellington senses this. The decision not to confront Beijing over the dismantling of the nominal independence of Hong Kong can be seen as a tacit recognition of our Finlandization. We are entering a new global era. It is unlikely to be a pleasant ride. * Damien Grant is a regular columnist for Stuff, and an insolvency practitioner and business owner based in Auckland. He writes from a libertarian perspective and is a member of the Taxpayers Union' but not of any political party. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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In a fragmenting world (with travel limited) we might have to depend on more local alliances. It is good that NZ and the land of Oz can build on local connections, but still the combined economies and population are small in world terms. For us in Finland we cannot yet open up with our closest neighbour (in terms of cultural and travel links) as Sweden is still experiencing rates of Corvid19 that are too high. Are other main close neighbour (Russia) is also in deep difficulty from Corvid19. I guess that as the world re-balances its trade patterns and finances there will be a lot of potential pain. I think that there will be more "localization" which might lead to less choice and higher prices that we are used to The positive side of this, if we partake, is that we are helping to keep local jobs and so supporting our local community. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
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Good read from NZ ! Thanks KiwiMum. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/saker-systemic-collapse-us-society-has-begun[/url] also a good read, both political parties fail, "black people"in the US do have much more chances than "black people" in Brazil, Africa have-they do no use them. A "rap-culture" supporting drug trade and prostitution-maybe the outcome of a social proces-they are certainly not a solution for any problem ! Before I go any further a very serious request for moderators on AFT- please do moderate ! Politics is a srious issue-not to be vandalized ! On the NZ article; -I do not think China does want to dominate "on its own". They may choose [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation[/url] and other organizations for that goal. The US as "the only superpower" became vulnarable by being in that position. China may have learned from that. With that countries like NZ can form local alliances with Australia (already a historical link), as EdwinSM mentioned. But another oppertunity is go for "shared interest alliances". Australia, New Zealand may find that their interests are not that different from Indonesia, Malaysia. There are cultural, religious differences but they all face China as an energy importer-while they export energy (and food). -Another issue is "population pressure". China may welcome Chinese being able to move outside China. Just like people moved to the US in the 19th/early 20th century and people moved to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South America after 1945. Indonesia also has a "population pressure" just like India. Australia, Russia(Siberia), Canada may have "room to offer". Africa may need well educated immigration and major investments (not only to see their products going to China-they should want more, education, healthcare, better housing in return for those goods-real development not new colonization.) -[url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/[/url] Two countries do have over 1 billion inhabitants, 12 do have over 100 million people living there. Asia has over 4.6 billion people-the spread is (very) uneven. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/asia-population/[/url] together with the over 700 million in [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-population/[/url] 5.3 billion live in EurAsia. That has consequences for logistics, foodsupply, energy, trade. The only way to explain how the US got into its leading role has to do with EarAsian countries fighting each other. There may be a major role for smaller-more neutral (Switzerland like) countries in mediation. Being the "oil" to keep "the machine" going. The US can be a very major-constructive-global player but it has to take one step back to find a new road in getting there. Is "big better" or would it be a good thing for the United States to get less united but be part of a group of countries including Mexico, Canada (and even Greenland !) working as a EU model-less united but still a major economic player ? A "NUS"? New United States ? Inside the US there are major economic different interests. Western US more oriented at Pacific trade, Florida at the Carribbean, North East more on EU/Canada. Energy producing states like Alaska (maybe Alaska could be a partner for Greenland-would Greenland be willing to work with Canada in more ways ?) and Texas versus New York finances and silicon valley California. -I believe history is driven by many factors. Some are human decisions (often wrong in forseeing long term consequences). Others are natural, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes but also climate (and man made climate chaos) and pandemics are main players. We are in the middle of many problems-from Covid19 to climate change, overpopulation shortage of water will influence the future. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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I would disagree with one aspect of that article, KiwiMum. If Joe Biden is elected, you will see some competent and fairly centrist Democratic rule. It may be true that Biden's health and mental competence is not where we would like it to be, but I believe that Biden is a figurehead, and that if he would win, his administration would best be described as a mostly actions, fewer words kind of administration, which I'm sure many of us would agree would be a welcome change after the current one. You would probably see him making frequent use of his press secretary and his cabinet doing most of the talking, limiting himself and his tendency to foot-in-mouth to only essential appearances, such as State Of The Union addresses, etc. He will take very few questions, and will delegate well, and let his experts handle the press. I think the rest of the article is spot on, and I do not envy the next president, who I dearly hope is named Biden. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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America is a Great country , full of really good people, Just need a leader Who can pull everyone together......... Strenth in unity Not in division Only then will America be truly GREAT One Nation United...... Equal Rights and Justice..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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United we stand Divided we fall. Ok, it's a cliché, but still true. America is more divided now than at any time I've seen in my lifetime - possibly since the civil war. Detest him though I do, I would probably change my view of the GOO if he experimented with a bit of consciliation and strove for some unity. Things are terrible! But The USA could still step back from the brink. Some real leadership would do it. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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I know it looks like Australia has room to offer, with it being so huge, but in reality, Australia is probably already over populated in terms of natural resources such as water. Vast tracks of Australia are good for literally nothing. You can't even run cattle on much of it because it's too dry to grow grass. If you put more people there, Australia will really struggle. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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KiwiMum
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Joe Biden certainly looks presidential, and much better and more capable than Trump, and he is statemanlike which is what is needed as a figure head. It's just such a pity that he's not 30 years younger. I think globally we're seeing a trend for much younger leaders and America needs to catch up. Think JFK. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
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DJ-KiwiMum-when you look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-projections/[/url] and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth[/url] even now "unliveble" land like Siberia and Australia become interesting. Much of the "access population" from India, China, Indonesia [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Java#Population_development[/url] see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_islands_by_population[/url] has to "move". Dealing with climate change means dealing with desertification. Desalination will become a main industry. To feed all people we will be able less to feed cattle-meat production is wasting food. Another note-I think things like this-the world after the US domination-should be the topic. Almost 96% of "us" do NOT live in the US ! Can we keep Biden/Trump "discussions" out of this topic please ? (Before it starts ruining all of this forum !) The NL did see a population reduction of over 5000 people in April-first time since the second world war I believe. (Most of that reduction is due to less migrant workers/foreign students). Countries like Brazil, India, Russia may face a decrease in population-Africa can even get much worse when also other illnesses get out of control. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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[For years I have followed the annual population report from the Population Reference Bureau so all population data is taken from them] One of the questions I have asked with the Corvid19 deaths, is whether places will see a population decline, and at this stage it looks like very few places will unless their population was already in decline. What I have not stored is data on migration and as Josh pointed out this can have a significant impact (mostly on countries receiving). My conclusion is that most eastern European countries will see a small increase in the existing rate of population decline. If one makes an estimate from declared cases (not reported deaths) then places like Russia may see a significant decline. For more northern parts of Europe, where there has been small population increases, the Netherlands' deaths (about 6,000) represents about 4 months population growth; France's deaths (29,000) is less than 3 months of population growth. The UK falls somewhere about 3½ months growth. So population fall here would be dependent of stopping of immigration (which largely happened). In western Europe, Spain with a declining population, has seen a death rate almost equal to 9 months decline. For South America, Africa and Asia, I think we will have to see horrendous death rates before we see a population decline. For example Brazil's 32,500 deaths is equal to about 7 hours population growth (its 0.8% growth rate seems modest compared with many African rates). I cannot get my head around the suffering that these areas will see if there is to be a population decline. [I need to go now, so any further analysis will need to wait] |
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ViQueen24
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Oh, I would vote for AOC in a heartbeat, KiwiMum!
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Here in NZ we are already expecting to take in the inhabitants of all the Pacific Islands as global warming makes their islands uninhabitable. With sea levels rising, some of them will literally be underwater. As for Australia, the real population pressure is from water. Desalination is an option but isn;t it very energy expensive? Lack or shortage of water creates huge pressures on people trying to live the Westernised lifestyle. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Australia.... Big Big Country No water..... in the populated areas (plenty up north ) When i first moved here 30 years ago Ernie Bridge a very wise man proposed a pipe line from the north of this Vast country ,to pipe water down to Perth, If that had been done, Australia could feed the World, with what could be grown here..... The cost in Farmers lives who commit suicide here,through lack of water should have made the politicians move forward on this. As with all western 2 party systems they only looking forward to the next elections..... Nothing ever gets done.... As soon as one party takes over from the other, they wind back all the previous parties plans...... We the Poor Poor tax payer PAYS AND PAYS.....AND PAYS.... GROUND HOG day Merry go round of money,for the Politicians.... Here serve as a political for 10 years.....free air travel for LIFE.....PLUS ALL THE BENIFITS.... I DONT HAVE AN ANSWER!!!!!! |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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Emswally
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Idaho USA Status: Offline Points: 1380 |
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I agree with you Carbon. Seems like it’s more of a sports match in politics than something that actually benefits the people. Most politicians seem more worried about playing the game to line their pockets, reap the long lasting rewards of government Positions. While the people hang on promises that seldom arrive or if do are taken back or modified by the opposition when they gain control. This seems to be the operative structure of most political parties unfortunately |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
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[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_conflict[/url] DJ-The (global) conflict on water control is just getting started. [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-said-to-question-chinas-role-in-bid-to-construct-israeli-desalination-plant/[/url] In the colonial era the Dutch constitution made a difference between "subjects" and "citizens". Most people living in Dutch colonies were "subjects" with (very) limited rights. (Many other colonial powers had a similar system.) When I look at "immigration countries" most of them wanted "western immigrants". Not people from Africa-many of them only had a chance if they went to their (former) colonizer. Countries like Australia, Canada, Russia, Brazil have to make up their minds on how to deal with "global migration". Proberbly a mix of influx from lots of countries (India and China both will have a larger economy than the US by 2030-in most models) and lots of age-groups (retired people may want to spent their old age in a warmer climate, young people may want to learn a job, expats running companies from their country on foreign soil) for a duration of time. When you look at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Arab_Emirates[/url] 11.32% of the UAE are UAE citizens-India and Pakistan have more citizens in the UAE than the UAE has as its own "population group". (Around 50% of UAE population is from former British India). Immigration countries can use "invitations" as part of a deal. Australia once had [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prehistoric_lakes#Oceania[/url].. It is a matter of choice and investments to bring back some of those lakes. If China would like to produce food for their population in Australia one could make a deal-it would also solve a climate problem. (In Roman times the Sahara [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_humid_period[/url] was green. International cooperation can make the Sahara green again. There is a growing urgent need for that-both climate change and food production press for a "green deal".) |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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I don't think we would have a food production problem if all food was eaten and not wasted. So much goes in the bin. So much never makes it to the supermarket because it is not ideal in appearance. A wonky carrot still tastes good. It's obscene really that good food gets binned for no real reason. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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EdwinSm,
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As I learnt from the book Small is Beautiful by E.F.Schumacher, the "perfect became the enemy of the good".
Having tired to grow carrots I know that they can take on some interesting shapes...actually some of them from my last harvest were obscene |
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Technophobe
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I love the wonky ones! More character! - Especially the obscene ones! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I think China would rather they take over Australia for their citizens...... Could you imagine China with the world's Largest supply of Uranium at hand...... Plus all our other resources...... And space...... We got plenty of BATS....LMAO.....(not funny I know lol) |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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ViQueen24
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Don't you have Misfits Markets there? |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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NEWS.com.au: United States coronavirus battle: Second wave of COVID-10 will be much worse than first. |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
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DJ-My opinion-not a fact-is that we are now seeing a new multi polar worldorder coming into reality. There sems to be coordination in North Korea hard stand towards South Korea and China making India clear that "it is not happy with India being part of any US plan to contain China." In the Middle East Iran FM made visits to Ankara and Moscow-then there is a major Turkish operation in Iraq-supported by Iran-against the Kurds-also as a warning for the Kurds in Syria-(make a) deal with Assad or face destruction. [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-military-breaks-through-us-blockade-in-northeast-syria-video/[/url] And this [url]https://southfront.org/another-crack-appears-in-us-sanctions-mexican-president-offers-to-sell-petroleum-to-venezuela/[/url] . Many countries may expect Trump not getting reelected [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/492180-johnson-israel-trump-palestine/[/url] and take positions to deal with a president Biden in 2021. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Thank you, Kiwi Mum! VP Biden will be transitional, and I doubt if he will run for a second term. We should watch for his Vice-Presidential pick....he has already promised to select a woman, and this woman will likely become the next President, either through succession or election. I like US Sen. Kamala Harris, but Rep. Val Demings is also impressive....both are African-American and have impressive backgrounds. BTW, if the US were fortunate enough to have a leader as competent as NZ's PM Arden, I'd be thrilled! Cheers and be safe, Chuck |
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CRS, DrPH
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WitchMisspelled
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I don't see how he'd run for a second term. He is the candidate that could beat Trump when he entered the run. I think that's the only reason. I'd be happy with Kamala Harris or Stacy Abrams. I'll have to take a look at Val Demings. |
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