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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

AY.4.2

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: AY.4.2
    Posted: October 21 2021 at 12:38am

DJ-The Delta subvariant seems to be exploding not only in the UK but worldwise...

TACC/TASS [url]https://tass.com/society/1352165[/url] or https://tass.com/society/1352165

Russia registered some isolated cases of the AY.4.2 COVID-19 variant, a subtype of the Delta strain, Kamil Khafizov, Head of the Scientific Group for the Development of New Diagnostic Methods of the Russian Central Scientific Research Institute of Epidemiology, said.

The AY.4.2 COVID-19 variant was discovered in the UK. According to British scientists, it is one of the 45 subspecies of Delta. Director of the Genetics Institute at University College London Francois Balloux suggested that the new variant could spread 10-15% faster than the previous ones.

"Yes, some isolated cases of the AY.4.2 COVID-19 variant are already being recorded in Russia <…>. [It is] one of the many subtypes of the Delta variant, which probably has a number of advantages over the original and other versions of the pathogen," the expert said.

See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant

Delta with K417N corresponds to lineages AY.1 and AY.2[45] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant".[46] It has the K417N mutation,[47] which is also present in the Beta variant.[48] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.[49]

As of mid-October 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for a cumulative prevalence of approximately 5% in the United States, and 2% worldwide.[50] In mid-October the AY.4.2 Delta sublineage was expanding in England, and being monitored and assessed. It contains mutations A222V and Y145H in its spike protein, not considered of particular concern. It has been suggested that AY.4.2 might be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant, but this would not lead to a large increase in cases.[51]

DJ So the changes inside thus AY.4.2 would-by themselves-not cause a "large increase" yet worldwide rom today global cases are again going up [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table by 0,1%...with winter still two months from starting, flu-season expected to be bad we need to go for restrictions NOW or face disaster with healthcare totally running out of capacity...

(scenario's has tech-problems...otherwise I would write there we may be facing over 1 million Covid deaths per month soon...without restrictions...) 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2021 at 2:37am

I was hoping we would know more by now-this [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650.amp[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650.amp may still be the "best" we have...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected info on AY.4 spread ( but AY.4.2 is a sub variant of the AY.4 Delta sub-variant...). 

So Belgium detecting 18 cases (most in Antwerp region) NL 16, Russia, Israel, UK...global cases going up again...the mutations in AY.4.2. "possibly" 10-15% more infectious...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-AqBrboooI&t=1s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-AqBrboooI&t=1s coming up with an october 1 study claiming "no problem"...Another october 11 update...

Oct. 11 6% of cases-some claims 8-10% by october 20....Dr.J.C. ; AY.4.2. proberbly started in june-did get its "name/designation" in august...is increasing in the Delta-sequences...(UK, DK doing much better in sequencing-DR.J.C. "that is why UK variants get the name UK variant" ...DJ-This variant may have started in the UK due to lifting of restrictions much to soon...). 

Dr.J.C. Israel did pick up 10 cases in people coming from the US...UK has 99% Delta-80% is AY.4....Y145H and A222V spike-mutation (also detected in Alfa) .Antibodies slightly less effective. 

WHO will see the AY.4.2 is a variant under investigation within a few days...Alfa, Delta (and other VOC's) did see much faster spread...DJ point is Delta allready has a high R0....

UK health secretary-UK may see 100,000 cases per day in november...hospital cases +1,000 per day. US doing much less testing, missing a lot of cases, variants...Dr.J.C. increase of cases most via schoolchildren...

AY4.2 10% more infectious detected in 10% of cases could be 1% of the increase of cases...Dr. J.C. repeats "limit to variations, mutations make virus weaker" etc...

DJ-Global cases are increasing most of all due to no restrictions...and yes-unvaccinated and decrease in vaccine protection is also a factor but we did almost get rid of CoViD-19 in the summer of 2020 via restrictions-not vaccines ! So restrictions/NPI may be more effective then vaccines...certainly with new variants ! If you do not get it no need your body has to fight the infection...

The role of AY.4.2 in global increase is unclear. Even Dr. J.C. notices AY.4.2 is increasing in the UK ! Admitting a lack of testing/sequencing in lots of countries (often "Delta" without any subvariant may the best statistic one can get...Simply lack of data...). 

Still another increase of 10-15% of infectiousness on top of the allready high Delta level is bad news...No doubt more info when available...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 2:21am

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected now has info on the AY.4.2 subvariant of Delta. Behind it weekly trends for (all CoViD) cases from [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 

The info on AY.4.2 has been updated (since I did write scenario's) ;

Romania did find 77 out of 4,218 samples had AY.4.2 Cases still +6%,

UK 13,895 out of 1,045,504, cases +19%, 

Poland 117 out of 23,501, cases +88% !!!!!,

Ireland 61 out of 36,353, cases +21%,

Italy 88 out of 63,583, cases +23%,

Germany 280 out of 223,293, cases +26%,

Belgium 61 out of 54,259, cases +68%, 

Denmark 58 out of 178,743, cases +42%, 

NL 13 out of 65,227, cases +41%, 

Russia just 2 out of 8,673, cases +17%,

US 113 out of 1,365,231, cases -14%

Israel still not in this list [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/first-case-of-new-delta-mutation-ay4-2-diagnosed-in-israel/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/first-case-of-new-delta-mutation-ay4-2-diagnosed-in-israel/ . Israel cases -33%...

In [url]https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-how-worried-should-we-be-about-the-ay-4-2-delta-variant#Masks-remain-vital[/url] or https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-how-worried-should-we-be-about-the-ay-4-2-delta-variant#Masks-remain-vital

Prof. Gupta’s own research, recently published in NatureTrusted Source, found that Delta is six times less sensitive to neutralizing antibodies from a person who has recovered from the infection, compared with the original strain of the virus.

His study also suggested that Delta is eight times less sensitive to antibodies from a person who has been vaccinated.

Prof. Gupta explained to MNT that the Delta variant is so infectious that antibodies are unable to protect the mucosal surfaces of a person’s respiratory tract from reinfection.

“The high speed of replication means that the vaccinated person gets an infection and can spread it,” he said. “Therefore, masks are an essential component of mitigation.”

DJ Could it be AY.4.2 is better in evading natural immunity ? Delta itself has a high R0 due to a high viral load. 

If the Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8, Alfa half of that 2 to 4, and the early variant from 2019/2020 an R0 of 1 to 2 an increase due to AY.4.2 of 15% on the R0 of 8 would bring that R0 to 9,2...

So-in combination with winter on its way, giving up restrictions, spread via unvaccinated (lots of them under 12) and people with decreasing vaccine protection I think AY.4.2 could be a major factor...maybe repeating the level of increase we did see end of 2020, january this year. Germany still has a lot of restrictions, several countries do have a relative high level of vaccine protection. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/mutated-strain-delta-variant-causing-panic-uk-has-been-found-us[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/mutated-strain-delta-variant-causing-panic-uk-has-been-found-us .

What is needed-again- STOP THE SPREAD !!!!! 

The blame-game in wich "politicians" blame the unvaccinated is not helping ! Reimposing NPI, restrictions, and increase offering (booster) vaccines to those that want to take may help more ! (Here in NL our "government" is thinking of booster vaccines for the most vulnarable in spring...with as good as no restrictions. A healthminister then blaming the unvaccinated for an explosion of cases is not worth that name...a sick joke !). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant

"Delta plus" variant

Delta with K417N corresponds to lineages AY.1 and AY.2[45] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant".[46] It has the K417N mutation,[47] which is also present in the Beta variant.[48] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.[49]

As of mid-October 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for a cumulative prevalence of approximately 5% in the United States, and 2% worldwide.[50] In mid-October the AY.4.2 Delta sublineage was expanding in England, and being monitored and assessed. It contains mutations A222V and Y145H in its spike protein, not considered of particular concern. It has been suggested that AY.4.2 might be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant, but this would not lead to a large increase in cases.[51] In the UK it was reclassified as a "variant under investigation" (but not "of concern") in late October 2021.[52]

DJ Given the high speed increase in the UK since one month I think AY.4.2 is becoming a global problem very fast. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 4:37am

It might be more transmissible, but it might be less potent,

Or might a slate wiper....

W.H.O knows....lol

Take care all 😷😉💉



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote badger2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 6:54am

This report is misleading. The K417 position is also mutated in the P.1 Japan-Brazil variant. This is the one the CDC sanitized on their webpage by changing the initial K417N/T to K417T, removing the important evidence that shows that the communist virus chooses either amino at position 417. In addition, after seeing what has happened, it can only intelligently be called communist. We’ll keep concern for the A222V, because that is also an Alzheimer’s mutation that precisely has to do with age of onset, so both antibodies and vaccine epitopes may also be implicated.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 8:30am

Badger, I can't pretend to fully understand what you posted, but are you saying that this variant can/might trigger Alzheimer's earlier or at all?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 3:08pm

I think the important thing is ,the virus is mutating at a fast rate,

And no-one can really say where it will end up.......

Take care all 😷😉💉




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 4:03pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2021 at 8:17am

Damn...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2021 at 12:20pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote badger2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 8:56am

At the time, there were13 U.S. V483A mutations.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.101/2020.03.15.991844v4 

These are not SARS-CoV-2-induced mutations:

Japan V272A Onset Age 26-36 Yrs.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15469450

Japan A285V Onset Age Mean 51 Yrs.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov//9643011

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote badger2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 8:59am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 01 2021 at 12:59am

From [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants

Delta variants

As of August 2021, Delta variants have been subdivided in the Pango lineage designation system into variants from AY.1 to AY.28. However, there is no information on whether such classification correlates with biological characteristic changes of the virus.[42] It is said that, as of August 2021, AY.4 to AY.11 are predominant in the UK, AY.12 in Israel, AY.2, AY.3, AY.13, AY.14, AY.25 in the US, AY.20 in the US and Mexico, AY.15 in Canada, AY.16 in Kenya, AY.17 in Ireland and Northern Ireland, AY.19 in South Africa, AY.21 in Italy and Switzerland, AY.22 in Portugal, AY.24 in Indonesia, and AY.23 in Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.[43]

"Delta plus" variant

Delta with K417N originally corresponded to lineages AY.1 and AY.2[44], subsequently also lineage AY.3,[45] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant".[46] It has the K417N mutation,[47] which is also present in the Beta variant.[48] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.[49]

As of mid-October 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for a cumulative prevalence of approximately 5% in the United States, and 2% worldwide.[50] In mid-October the AY.4.2 Delta sublineage was expanding in England, and being monitored and assessed. It contains mutations A222V and Y145H in its spike protein[51], not considered of particular concern. It has been suggested that AY.4.2 might be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant. Mid-October 2021, AY.4.2 accounted for an estimated 10% of cases, and has led to an additional growth rate rising to about 1% (10% of 10%) per generational time of five days or so. This additional growth rate would grow with increasing prevalence. 


Without AY.4.2 and no other changes, the number of cases in the UK would have been about 10% lower.[52] AY.4.2 grows about 19% faster per week.[53] In the UK it was reclassified as a "variant under investigation" (but not "of concern") in late October 2021.[54]

DJ AY.4.2 is pushing numbers up in the UK may push numbers up faster in countries with even less vaccine protection. But there are lots of other sub-variants of Delta...some may be even worse...And without testing/sequencing will be missed...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected now also has the first Australian AY.4.2 finding (at border control). A total of 36 countries now detected AY.4.2...Most detections in the UK but also in Romania, Poland...Bahrain...limited in Ireland and Germany...Maybe cases go up for a few weeks-increase of restrictions/vaccines enough to stop it ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote badger2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 01 2021 at 12:19pm

But the CDC changed the original P.1 variant mutation from K417N/T to K417T.

The same phenomenon links to Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Z. Hu:

’A threonine at position 487 also substantially increased association with palm civet ACE2. Notably, the single palm civet-derived S protein sequence that encoded a threonine at position 487 also encoded an asparagine at position 479 (Z. Hu, personal communication). The emergence of this rare combination  of S protein residues in palm civet-derived viruses may have been necessary to generate a SARS-CoV that could efficiently transmit between humans. The infrequency of threonine 487 in animal-derived viruses may suggest that the receptor of the ultimate reservoir of SARS-CoV better utilizes a serine at this position.’

(Chapter 10 The ACE2 Cellular Receptor, in Nidoviruses, ASM Press 2008)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 02 2021 at 2:53pm

Not look great.....

Get vaccinated.....or boosted

Take care all 😷😉💉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 02 2021 at 7:02pm

Vaccinated with Pfizer and just got my booster last week.  No side affects with the first two but the booster sorta wiped me out for a day with exhaustion.  Now to stock up for the winter.

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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I've had 2 AZ shots ,booster in March ,not sure which one ,either Pifzer or Moderna, recommend 6 months apart   

Good to see you roni 😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 03 2021 at 3:47pm

Good to see you Roni!  I hope you're not too late.  It may be waning in the news, but there are still some serious shortages going on.  Don't forget the paper products. They may be made in the USA, but the rolls of paper for production come from China.

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