Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Azerbijan:New Bird Flu Outbreak |
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Posted: March 10 2006 at 2:03am |
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http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do? pageID=cp_agriculture_home&articleID=2193047 |
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http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=12037 |
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Close to Turkey - sounds like BF even if it doesn't get admitted.
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Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
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we're getting close folks
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I look at the stars and wonder what it would be like to touch them.
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http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/03/a32dc644- b921-4584-9ba0-38fcd61c5472.html |
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endman
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1232 |
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Everybody is afraid to admit that BF is mutating and they keep on telling the same story pneumonia we know that it is the cause of BF infection. We will see more and more cases like this Remember we need to go to work just like nothing happed we need to make The Man happy
Just remember that you can’t keep this under raps for long the truth will come up And it will be too late for many of us |
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Dejuan
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2006 Status: Offline Points: 84 |
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Very disturbing.
Dejuan |
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Ring a ring o'roses
A pocket full of posies A-tishoo! A-tishoo! We all fall down |
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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I didnt hear anything about actual tests done to dismiss the cases. Is this one more denial based upon medical conjecture. If they had done tests fo h5n1 would they not just come out and say that. Ya no somthing like Lab results confirm two girls did not have H5N1 virus. Instead we get (Ruled out) HOW????? Tragic Coincident &n bsp; Really!!! Died of Pneumonia Yep thats what most H5N1 victims Die From
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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ExaminedLife
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Exactly.
There was no reporting that they even tested for H5N1. Instead, just a vague and casual dismissal. That is so disingenuous. All they've managed to do is stoke suspicion. |
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Bird flu outbreak confirmed in Russia
( area is located just east of where 2 grils died in Tibilisi) Mar 10, 2006, 21:23 A bird flu outbreak has been confirmed at a bird product processing plant in southern Russia, Itar-Tass news agency reported. Laboratory tests have confirmed the presence of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza virus in dead birds, the agency said Thursday. More than 70,000 chickens have been culled since the beginning of March, when fowl began to die en masse at the processing plant in the southern region of Stavropol. The infection and rapid spread of the deadly virus among the domestic birds were due to the plant's neglect of relevant regulations with regard to disease prevention, according to Russia's veterinary experts. Stavropol region first reported the epidemic in late February when the virus was only spreading among birds on poultry farms. But now more than 2,500 domestic birds have died of the disease in the region. Since bird flu was firstly recorded in Siberia last July, the disease has been detected in other parts of Russia. The Caspian Sea province of Dagestan and the southwestern region of Krasnodar are the worst affected, where 900,000 and 700,000 domestic birds have been killed respectively as a result of the disease. http://www.rxpgnews.com/world/epidemics/avianinfluenza/ printer_3635.shtml |
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The Ukraine is just West-North_West from Georgia. (Across the Black Sea
from Turkey. The Ukraine has had well over a thousand "pneumonia"
deaths this winter. Just to the west of the Ukraine is Moldavia
and they have had close to a thousand deaths from "Pneumonia".
The coverup continues.
We don't know how many of the pneumonia deaths could be directly traced back to Sichuan Sheet, but I expect that most of them are. Those girls and hundreds more like them are dead because of the coverup. |
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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Well how many pneuomonia deaths do they normally have? If you think all those pneuomonia deaths, or most of them, are bird-flu, then what happened to all the other causes of pneuomonia this year?
For sure a thousand sounds like alot, but its not. At this time of year more than 10,000 people are dying in the UK every week (of all causes). Im sure we end up with more than 1000 respiratory-related deaths over the course of winter each year. Whats missing fom those numbers is the location, If those 1000 pneuomonia deaths are spread out all over the country, it may be totally normal. If they were all in a certain regin, or there were housands of EXCESSIVE deaths, above the normal rate, then it would merit further investigation. Also the weather in that part of the world has been very severe, that had the insanely cold snap in winter, which was exascurbated by the crisis over gas-supply from Russia. |
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elbows
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Moving away from Georgia etc, and returning to Azerbaijan, here is the latest news from the WHO about the outbreak. Im sure you wont be surprised to see that they seem to be doing the usual thing if disgarding mild cases, and that diagnostic testing is a problem again. I still remain openminded, whilst it does seem negligent to discard such cases, I can see why initial high numbers may reduce completely legitimately as well. Going door-to-door after someones got real ill, and hospitalising potential cases, is bound to result in some people who only have normal flu being picked up. We cant solve this by shouting conspiracy at the WHO, we need better, faster testing. WHO can eliminate uncertain/mild cases because its hard to get a positive result, if we could do testing easier & more accurately, then it would be possible to actually look at the possible 'mild ird flu' in humans phenomenon and see how often its actually the case.
Anyway heres the WHO report: Avian influenza – situation in Azerbaijan 10 March 2006 Since the beginning of March, the Ministry of Health in Azerbaijian has been investigating a cluster of 10 persons placed under observation for possible infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. All of these persons are from the Daikyand settlement in Salyan Rayon in the eastern part of the country. The Salyan Rayon is located near wetlands frequented by migratory birds. Recent deaths of poultry have been reported in the Daikyand settlement, but the cause of these deaths has not yet been determined. The investigation was launched when two young women, who were neighbours, died within a week of each other. The first patient, a 17-year-old girl, died on 23 February. She was reported to have suffered for more than a year from respiratory symptoms associated with a neoplastic condition. Her death is now thought to have been caused by this pre-existing disease. As a precaution, samples have been taken and will be sent for H5N1 testing at a WHO collaborating laboratory in the United Kingdom. The second death occurred on 3 March in a 20-year-old woman who died following rapidly progressive acute pneumonia, which is a characteristic feature in many cases of H5N1 infection. Immediately following the second death, the Ministry of Health initiated daily house-to-house investigations, conducted by four teams of hospital staff, looking for persons in the settlement having respiratory symptoms or fever. As a result, an additional 8 persons were hospitalized for observation. Of these, six showed only mild symptoms. They have fully recovered and have now been discharged from hospital. Of the remaining two patients, one, a 17-year-old girl, died on 8 March. A 16-year-old boy remains hospitalized in isolation. His condition is critical. The response of the Ministry of Health has been prompt and efficient, but hampered by the lack of some essential equipment and supplies and inadequate diagnostic capacity. Prior to the event, staff from the Ministry of Health had visited offices of sanitary hygiene and epidemiology in each rayon within the country, creating a high level of awareness of the disease and a correspondingly high level of alert for possible cases of unusual respiratory disease. The house-to-house surveillance for cases is continuing. A WHO team is presently in Azerbaijan to assess needs and provide technical support to health officials. The team will be augmented on Monday with additional expertise and supplies, including laboratory equipment and diagnostic reagents. Samples have been collected by local officials and shipment to the WHO-affiliated laboratory is expected to take place early next week. Supplies of the antiviral drug oseltamivir are available in Azerbaijan, but the quantity is limited. To date, all patients under investigation have received treatment with this drug. Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza was initially confirmed in Azerbaijan on 9 February in wild birds found in the coastal area near the capital city of Baku. On 24 February, the country announced detection of infection in poultry at farms in Khyzy (in the north-eastern part of the country) and Bilasuvar (near Salyan). Some 300,000 birds were culled as a result. |
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vladas
Valued Member Joined: March 09 2006 Status: Offline Points: 42 |
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"Recombinomics Asks WHO to Release Bird Flu Sequences GenomeWeb 19:56" |
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Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
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welcome to the boards vladas and your post |
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I look at the stars and wonder what it would be like to touch them.
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I have a friend who will be there in 2-weeks if they allow him in. I've asked him to contact me when he is there. He is also attending I hope, ( an international vacccine confernce in Ottawa this week) He has a few children, so he has a strong interest. |
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[http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/ 2006/03/21fe390c-7385-4fde-8462-0106cf1e7a9c.html * This area is south of Dagestan, where all the birds are dying. * Baku, part of Azerbijan, (man & bird in shovel) is just south of Dagestan. |
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http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03100601/ H5N1_Azerbaijan_Clusters_4.html |
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virusil
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 450 |
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get ready this is human clusters,prep
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ignorance.
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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WOW Rick nice coverage of an area (Hot Spot) Map gives better perspective to how closely linked all of these reports are. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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PITTSBURGH, March 10 /PRNewswire/ -- Recombinomics
fully supports the appeal by Dr. Llaria Capua of the OIE/FAO Reference Laboratory for AvianInfluenza at the Istituto Zooprofilattica Sperimentale delle Venezie inPadova, Italy to allow influenza researchers worldwide open access to H5N1sequences collected by the WHO. Currently, most of the recently collected H5N1 gene sequences are sequestered in a private, WHO controlled database, which can only be accessed by 15 laboratories. These sequences should be made available immediately to the general scientific community. The sequences are essential in pandemic vaccine development and should be accessible to all. This week the United States government announced a new pandemic vaccinetarget, the H5N1 sequence from a patient in Indonesia. Although available sequences indicate several pandemic vaccine targets would be desirable, theutility of the chosen sequence cannot be independently evaluated because noneof the H5N1 sequences from human patients in Indonesia are publicly available. Similarly, no sequences from confirmed H5N1 positive human patients in Turkey,Iraq, and China are available outside of the private WHO database. Considering the hundreds of millions that will likely be spent in manufacturing a "new" vaccine against H5N1, additional research and analysisby the scientific community would be both warranted and potentiallybeneficial. On February 28, 2006, researchers at the Beijing Genomics Institute released H5N1 sequences under the submission title "A cohort of AIV H5N1subtypes isolated from wild aquatic birds and domestic poultry revealed rapid transmission, frequent reassortment, and identifiable recombination." Recombinomics has released a series of commentaries detailing the examples ofrecombination in these newly released sequences, including single nucleotidepolymorphisms. These newly released public sequences provide compelling evidence of recombination in the H5N1 virus's evolution. "Release of recent H5N1 sequences is essential," said Recombinomics President, Henry L. Niman, Ph.D. "These sequences provide a roadmap of where H5N1 has been and where it isgoing. They also can be used to predict new sequences of new strains of H5N1before they emerge. These data are critical for effective vaccine development." Recombinomics has used the available public sequences to predict the acquisition of HA S227N in the Middle East in the fall of 2005. The prediction was verified in sequences from the index case in Turkey. Similarly, Recombinomics has predicted the acquisition of G228S form H1N1 inswine in Europe this spring. Both of these genetic changes increase theaffinity of influenza for human receptors and increase the efficiency of H5N1transmission to humans. These predications are dependent upon a full andcurrent sequence database. Through this patent pending approach, Recombinomics identifies novel gene targets for new vaccines, which in turn allows manufacturers to develop vaccines in advance of the emergence of new genetically altered, and potentially pandemic viral strains. About Recombinomics, Inc. -- The Company was founded by Dr. Henry Niman, a former Scripps Institute Assistant Member, based on his pioneering work in the area of viral evolution. Dr. Niman's research identified recombination as the underlying mechanism driving rapid genetic change, allowing him to file a series of patents based on a deep understanding of this paradigm shifting process. Recombinomics is in the process of commercializing its patent-pending approach to significantly improve the standard vaccine development process. Recombinomics, through its analysis and commentary section of its website(http://www.recombinomics.com ), has been consistently ahead of both the scientific community and government agencies in anticipating the genetic evolution and geographic expansion of H5N1. Contact Information: Dr. Henry Niman President Recombinomics, Inc. 648 Field Club Road, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15238 Tel. 866.973.2662 henry_niman@recombinomics.com |
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http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/ news/ mar1006human.html |
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http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-03/11/content_4288408 .htm |
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W.H.O. Pandemic Guide for Journalists
What will be the first signs of a pandemic? "In one possible scenario, we will see clusters of respiratory illness from one region. Clusters of illness could indicate transmission between people, including casual contacts and health-care workers. Once cases begin to be identified as a new influenza strain, the disease may spread very rapidly, beyond family members and health care personnel, into the general population. This will be the start of a pandemic. Next, we will likely see dozens of cases being reported in a single day, followed by hundreds. Once the pandemic starts, it will be nearly impossible for any surveillance system to miss it." http://www.who.int/csr/don/Handbook_influenza_pandemic_dec05 .pdf |
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Barley
Valued Member Joined: March 11 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1 |
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I am finding it hard to find out information that is current on the BF, Luckily I found this site today. Thanks for all the info. I am a nurse and every time I mention the BF to my fellow workers (including doctors) , they just seem to think it is just a joke that will never happen here and are not prepared for when it does explode into a pandemic that spreads rapidly. This is scary because I work for a Major Hospital in a large city. Nobody seems to care or have any concerns. What is one to do?
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trying to stay informed.....
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That seems a common complaint here in the UK as well. Welcome Barley.
have good look round and you will see lots of ideas |
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"Nobody seems to care or have any concerns. What is one to do?" -------------- Try to apply some emotional triage with your finite resources, to take care of those that you care for most, get prepared and stay informed. |
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Rick, Thank you so much for the news articles and maps! It makes it so much easier to see the big picture. I can't tell you how much I appreciate it. |
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Azerbaijan investigating possible family cluster
of bird flu cases, WHO says Canadian Press Saturday, March 11, 2006 GENEVA (CP) - Health authorities in Azerbaijan are investigating a worrisome cluster of possible human cases of H5N1 avian influenza, the World Health Organization said Thursday. A total of 11 suspected cases, including eight members of the same family, are being assessed, WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng said. Of the 11 suspect cases, three people have died and one is listed in serious condition in hospital. "Currently there are signs that suggest this could be a human H5N1 cluster," Cheng said. "But we don't know that right now. We still need to do more thorough epidemiological investigation and wait for the lab results." "It certainly looks a bit suspicious, but we don't have enough information to draw conclusions." Though all human cases of avian flu are potentially dangerous, WHO pays particular attention to clusters of cases. While clusters may be the result of several people from the same family or village each having exposure to infected birds, they could also signal that the virus has passed from one person to another. It is believed there have been a number of cases of limited human-to- human transmission of the H5N1 virus. But any sign of continued spread could mean the virus had mutated in ways that would allow it to more easily jump to and between people. The possible cases in Azerbaijan have been reported in two villages, Sarvan and Daikend, in the eastern part of the country. They are near Baku, where that country's first reported H5N1 outbreaks in birds occurred. Reports received by the WHO suggest some of the possible cases may have recovered and left hospital. Cheng said specimens from the suspected cases, including the people who have died, will be sent to Britain's National Institute of Medical Research for testing. The North London lab is part of the WHO collaborating laboratory network. Cheng said it wasn't yet clear if the samples could be sent Thursday. "We're waiting, I think, to see if they need more containers to ship the samples." A three-member team from the WHO has been in Azerbaijan assisting local authorities with avian flu risk assessment and helping with the investigation. The team is made up of an epidemiologist, an infection control expert and a laboratory specialist. Early indications suggest that at least some of the possible cases had a history of contact with poultry. And Cheng said it was known that there have been poultry outbreaks in this region. "We know in that area there were sick and dying poultry and in neighbouring districts they had confirmed H5N1." At present there has been no discussion of sending a larger WHO team to Azerbaijan, and authorities there have not asked the WHO for additional help. "It hasn't been raised yet. Certainly we'd be prepared to do that if the country made that request," Cheng said. http://www.canada.com/topics/news/agriculture/story.html? id=eb8e2204-6c7c-4618-9638-1112fe45feb3&k=75559 |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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from who article in above post a few up W.H.O. Pandemic Guide for Journalists looks like we are already getting the dozen of reports stage. if you count just part of the pnumonia, mysteriuos fever, etc. reports we're getting close to the hundred report stage hell what we don't know....' we're probably at the hundred mark already, next week will tell it all. If it's gonna blow to where they can't hide it. Next week or so will tell. We're either fearmongering zealots or we're dead right on the money. I'd say if you compiled all the articles we could get last week their were close to a hundred suspected cases. My how the pace has changed from the weekly death report 3 months ago. we're getting 2-3 a day now. 3 months ago it was asias baby. now we pretty much lack 1/3 of the world left to report. which all the experts agree will be doing so in about no later than 6 months. For not ever being in a pandemic before or knowing what the start of one feels like. The last 3 months sure have been freaky. Next week will tell. everybody dig as deep as we can into the news,, web, searches etc. we might hit one hundred suspected cases in one day if we put 2 + 2 together. If we can do that it's pretty much a sure thing. it's coming. |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Hey Corn-I noticed the same thing about the reporter's guide
rightaway.-The phrase"once cases begin to be intentified as the new
infuenza strain......"
does not make any sense to me. Whether they are identified as such or not, has nothing to do with it's spread- right now there are not indentified, or amonth later. What good does that do?? silly folks:-( I think we 're in for some trouble. If they are having trouble at the beginning of the pandemic, how are they going to handle the rest of it. ? |
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I think we have a ways to go yet. I do think it's h2h but not that easily spread yet, seems to stick to family units, I think we will begin to see towns,maybe in another month. JMO Though what ever happen to the quarantined town in India, that must be over now? |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Colleen yes, who knows? I have 4-6 days left on my earlier call of h2h jumping out of the box prediction. unless a big suprise awaits all we get is this dribble of cases, the current trickle of cases though, is a significant amount compared to the dribble we got 3 months ago. we get used to the news. 3 months ago one or two deaths or cases a bi weekly and we were concerned. now we gt 10-20 suspected and 5-7 deaths a week and we still say "we'll not to bad don't see drastic spread.". so in another 3 months from the current trend in the news reports. (not based on exponentals) 3 months from now we'll get 25-30 deaths a week and 200 suspected cases? and say "oh what a slow week." All I really want to know is "about when" so that I can aviod exposure early. We're all looking for just the right time so at the last minute we can bug out. Don't care for all the bad news but have to keep abreast to monitor the "reported" spread.. I say we're getting about 20% of the news. another 20% we dig for. another 20% is being purposely held back and 40% of whats really happening in remote areas etc not even the WHO can't keep up with. cases go misdiagnosed and unreported. the reported cases are just the tip of and iceburg. so if they say 5 you can andd another 20 and make it 25. It's the 40% I'm concerned about. somethings going on. not enough information. wish we got all the news............ Let us see what next week brings ....I have to be in Nashville wed-fri people=germs..I'm going to invent the "Body Condom."non-lubricated of course, |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Corn, for years I've kept a mental list of the 5 people I'd want to be stranded on a desert island with. For much of my adult life, it was 4 young movie starlets and Issac Asimov (for mental stimulation).
Now that Issac is gone, I'm thinking I'd like to put you (at the bottom, of course) of my short list. You seriously crack me up! Keep up the good work. |
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by Sergey Grinshpun, PhD Center for Health-Related Aerosol Studies, University of Cincinnati Workshop on Respiratory Protection for Airborne Infectious Agents November 30 - December 1, 2004 Atlanta, GA http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/resources/pressrel/announceme nts/ 113004wkshp/pdfs/Presentation%2009_Sergey%20Grinshpun.pdf http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/resources/pressrel/announceme nts/ 113004wkshp/presentations.html Department of Environmental Health, Center for Health-Related Aerosol Studies, University of Cincinnati, P.O. Box 670056, 3223 Eden Avenue, Cincinnati, OH 45267-0056, USA by Sergey Grinshpun, PhD Center for Health-Related Aerosol Studies, University of Cincinnati Workshop on Respiratory Protection for Airborne Infectious Agents November 30 - December 1, 2004 Atlanta, GA http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/resources/pressrel/announceme nts/ 113004wkshp/pdfs/Presentation%2009_Sergey%20Grinshpun.pdf http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/resources/pressrel/announceme nts/ 113004wkshp/presentations.html Department of Environmental Health, Center for Health-Related Aerosol Studies, University of Cincinnati, P.O. Box 670056, 3223 Eden Avenue, Cincinnati, OH 45267-0056, USA Abstract: We developed a novel concept that allows to considerably improve the performance of conventionally used filtering-facepiece respirators against ne and ultra finne aerosols including airborne viral and bacterial agents. The concept is based on the continuous emission of unipolar ions. The e ect was evaluated through the real-time monitoring of the concentration and size distribution of ne and ultra fine aerosol particles. The measurements were conducted inside and outside of a respiratory mask that was face sealed on a breathing manikin. A commonly used Type N95 respirator and surgical mask were utilized for the tests. The manikin was placed in a 24.3-m3 indoor test chamber and exposed to polydisperse surrogate aerosols simulating viral and bacterial particles with respect to the aerodynamic size. The particle penetration through the mask was found to decrease by one-to-two orders of magnitude as a result of continuous unipolar ion emission in the chamber. The influx of air ions migrated to the breathing zone and imparted electrical charges of the same polarity to the aerosol particles and the respirator lter surface. This created an electrostatic shield along the external surface of the filter, thus enhancing the protection characteristics provided by the respirator. The above performance enhancement e ect is crucial for minimizing the infectious risk in the cases when the conventional ltering-facepiece respirators are not able to provide an adequate protection against airborne viruses and bacteria. http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/resources/pressrel/announceme nts/ 113004wkshp/pdfs/Presentation%2009_Sergey%20Grinshpun.pdf - some kid called Picassso did the art for me, he was in sheltered workshop, what can I say. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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nice art work. kids must of had fun with that project. anyway, can we ionize our mask? and how? |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Fiddlerdave
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According to the diagram, and my understanding of ion activity, by adding ions to the air, they will attract to surface of the mask normally if you put them in the air with your ion generator. Negative ions are reputed to have some positive heallth effects. Positive ions (as shown in this drawing) can have negative effects. I am not certain it would matter to use negative ions instead of positive - negative may produce the same response involving the mask. A negative ion generator does pull very small particles out of the air. I will try to research this more (can't make the link work to see more info there) Some health effects of ions: |
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Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"! |
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Fiddlerdave
Valued Member Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 259 |
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Negative ion generators are cheap, $30 or $40 and up. If they really improve the filtering efficiency of a mask by 10 to 100 times, they would be a MUST HAVE.
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Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"! |
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