Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Breakthrough cases
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Breakthrough cases

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Little House View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member


Joined: February 13 2020
Location: Ohio
Status: Offline
Points: 1710
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Breakthrough cases
    Posted: April 06 2021 at 12:50pm

Breakthrough cases are what scares me the most.  It is a visible sign that the vaccines are no longer working.  I have seen a few reports of people getting Covid after being fully vaccinated, but this is the first larger study I have seen.


246 vaccinated residents diagnosed with COVID; 3 dead, Michigan reports


https://news.yahoo.com/246-vaccinated-residents-diagnosed-covid-040100831.html



Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 19385
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2021 at 4:13pm

Wow. That's worrying.

You can't fix stupid.
Back to Top
EdwinSm, View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: April 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 20450
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2021 at 10:38pm

A good but concerning find.

The deaths reported seem to be close to the time of the second vaccination, so this could be a 'pre-existing' covid infection, or it could be the worrying "breakthrough".



Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 85735
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2021 at 1:00pm

Terrible news!  Not unexpected, but bad anyway!

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
Back to Top
ksc View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: February 09 2020
Status: Online
Points: 4350
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2021 at 4:39am

The vaccines are not 100% effective. Those numbers are insignificant.

The 246 positive tests only account for  0.001% of the 1.7 million Michiganders who are considered fully vaccinated. 


Back to Top
ksc View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: February 09 2020
Status: Online
Points: 4350
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2021 at 4:51am

Reality:

"Public health experts emphasize that all three of the COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States are effective, particularly at preventing serious disease and death. 

In its large-scale clinical trials, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was shown to have a 95% efficacy rate in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, just 1 percentage point more than Moderna's. Both vaccines appear to be equally protective across age groups and racial and ethnic groups. 

 

The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine was shown to have a 72% efficacy rate in the United States in preventing symptomatic illness and an 85% efficacy rate in preventing the most severe disease 28 days after vaccination.

 

Because the trials were conducted differently at different times, efficacy rates cannot be directly compared among the vaccines. 

 
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines went through trials before the more contagious B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 variant strains that originated in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil, respectively, were circulating. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine trials took place when there were high rates of transmission of those variants and in countries with a high prevalence of variant cases.

What does COVID vaccine efficacy rate mean?

A vaccine's efficacy rate is the reduction in cases of disease in the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group in a clinical trial. 

 

So, for instance, in the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials, of the 43,661 people who volunteered, 170 contracted coronavirus. Of them, 162 were in the placebo group and 8 were in the vaccine group. That means the rate of illness among the vaccinated group was 95% lower than in the placebo group. Thus, the vaccine has a 95% efficacy rate.

 

Is it different than effectiveness? 

Yes. A vaccine's effectiveness describes how well it protects people in the community, outside a carefully controlled clinical trial."

 

For example: if J&Js shot turns out to have 72% effectiveness(same in real world as trials), that means 28% of those vaccinated in the community will develop covid(almost always mild) if exposed to an Infectious dose. On a population level, if 100K J&J people are exposed, 28,000 would be expected to get covid. For Moderna and Pfizer, if effectiveness was identical to efficacy, 5000 per 100K exposed would still get sick. 

 

Real world data:

In Michigan, 246 breakthrough cases have been documented among the more than 1.8 million Michiganders who are fully vaccinated. The actual breakthough number is obviously higher, and these are just the reported infected breakthroughs to date. As time goes on, the numbers will rise.

 

"when you say three people have died after getting fully vaccinated, that means that 0.000176% of those vaccinated have died. That means that the vaccine is 99.999% effective in preventing death." 

 

Death Rate Compared:

• The death rate for those infected who are over 85 is 10%. 1 in 10.

• Over 75? 4.5%. 1 in 23.

• Fully Vaccinated?(numbers to date in Michigan) ....1 in 600,000


 

Back to Top
Little House View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member


Joined: February 13 2020
Location: Ohio
Status: Offline
Points: 1710
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2021 at 9:54am

Thank you KSC, I knew that some breakthrough cases were to be expected, but not how many. Thank you for doing the research to come up with those numbers.  They are reassuring.  

I do think that we should keep watching the number of breakthrough cases, but right now it doesn’t seem to be a big deal.

Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 85735
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2021 at 4:23am

Ksc is spot on!  

Those still dying are REALLY insignificant numbers (whilst individually tragic) and may well have been incubating the virus before inocculation.  With such small numbers, the unfortunate ones may also have had severe underlying health conditions..

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 54841
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 10 2021 at 6:16pm

ABC News: South African COVID variant can 'break through' Pfizer vaccine, Israeli study suggests.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-11/south-african-variant-can-break-through-pfizer-vaccine/100061552

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
roni3470 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: August 30 2006
Location: Colorado
Status: Offline
Points: 3620
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 10 2021 at 6:25pm

Great! That is the vaccine I got!  But I am not surprised.  I hear them saying 6 months of protection, so whats going to happen in 6 months?  So many unanswered questions and not enough research from the US on any of it!

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 52397
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 10 2021 at 9:26pm

"So whats going to happen in six months"-new vaccines will arrive ! The US, UK and several other countries do show to be able to vaccinate fast and on a large scale. Vaccine producers do increase production capacity and are working on variant(s) protection...

That does not rule out a vaccine resistant variant could show up...So far however vaccines offer a lot of protection against most variants. Even 50% protection is better then no protection at all...

Here in NL vaccinations are a disaster...I would be happy to get vaccinated this year !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
EdwinSm, View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: April 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 20450
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 10 2021 at 10:57pm

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Even 50% protection is better then no protection at all...


Thanks for the sane reminder.  

One quote I remember for E.E. Schumacher (of Small is Beautiful fame) goes like this "The prefect is the enemy of the good."  We see this in rules like how straight a cucumber has to be to be classed as a cucumber.*  We are in danger of putting people off vaccines that are very good just because they are not "perfect".  The current covid vaccines are so much better than the flu vaccines in the percentage of people covered when they get the jab. 



* My grandfather was a market gardener supplying the hotels of London in the 1920-30s.  Then the requirement for cucumbers was not so much being straight, but they had to send matching pairs (in size and similar curve).  I wonder how much perfectly good food is thrown away because it does not met the standard of looks.

Back to Top
ViQueen24 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: May 14 2013
Location: Verona, PA
Status: Offline
Points: 9515
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 11 2021 at 7:59am

In the States, we have a company called "Imperfect Foods" that feeds alot of people for just that reason.

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 52397
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 12 2021 at 2:10am

So far most "breaktrough cases" could be explained in two ways;

1-Vaccines offer not 100% protection so in 1000 vaccinations with 95% protection 50 people still may catch the virus. Vaccinating may result in less severe disease...

2-In larger scale outbreaks reported often people may get infected just before, during, or shortly after vaccination. A healthy young person may develop a high level of immunity after 12-14 days, older or less healthy persons may need more time-up to 3 weeks (maybe even more) and may not get the same level of immunity young healthy persons get...

The bad news;

1-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/912460-evidence-for-increased-breakthrough-rates-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-in-bnt162b2-mrna-vaccinated-individuals[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/912460-evidence-for-increased-breakthrough-rates-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-in-bnt162b2-mrna-vaccinated-individuals ;The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine has demonstrated high protection levels, yet apprehension exists that several variants of concerns (VOCs) can surmount the immune defenses generated by the vaccines. Neutralization assays have revealed some reduction in neutralization of VOCs B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, but the relevance of these assays in real life remains unclear. Here, we performed a case-control study that examined whether BNT162b2 vaccinees with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to become infected with B.1.1.7 or B.1.351 compared with unvaccinated individuals. Vaccinees infected at least a week after the second dose were disproportionally infected with B.1.351 (odds ratio of 8:1). Those infected between two weeks after the first dose and one week after the second dose, were disproportionally infected by B.1.1.7 (odds ratio of 26:10), suggesting reduced vaccine effectiveness against both VOCs under different dosage/timing conditions. Nevertheless, the B.1.351 incidence in Israel to-date remains low and vaccine effectiveness remains high against B.1.1.7, among those fully vaccinated. These results overall suggest that vaccine breakthrough infection is more frequent with both VOCs, yet a combination of mass-vaccination with two doses coupled with non-pharmaceutical interventions control and contain their spread..

DJ-Translation: The Pfizer vaccine may offer less protection (Israel study) when confronted with several variants...In time this may mean vaccine escape if there is not enough NPI/lockdown etc. to contain it...See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/912451-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-able-to-%E2%80%98break-through%E2%80%99-pfizer-vaccine[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/912451-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-able-to-%E2%80%98break-through%E2%80%99-pfizer-vaccine ; Israeli data shows South African variant able to ‘break through’ Pfizer vaccine
Strain is more effective than original COVID and the British variant at bypassing the shot, Israeli scientists find, in first-of-its-kind, real-world study
By Nathan Jeffay 10 April 2021, 8:08 pm 5

-

Israel has used the Pfizer vaccine almost exclusively to vaccinate millions of citizens, with a version by Moderna, based on similar innovative mRNA technology, used minimally.

A team from Tel Aviv University and the Clalit healthcare organization sequenced the swabs of 150 Israelis who tested positive for COVID-19 despite having been vaccinated.

In their study, the prevalence of the South African strain among vaccinated individuals who were infected despite their inoculation was eight times higher than its prevalence in the unvaccinated infected population. Though the number of such infections among the vaccinated was relatively small, the findings indicated that this variant was far more successful in getting through vaccinated individuals’ defenses than other strains.

“Based on patterns in the general population, we would have expected just one case of the South African variant, but we saw eight,” Prof. Adi Stern, who headed the research, told The Times of Israel. “Obviously, this result didn’t make me happy.” ....

DJ-If vaccines offer less protection against some variants these variants may spread further in a vaccinated population. Vaccine then may offer good protection against "old" variants but less against newer (often less mild) variants...

2-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/912482-the-mystery-of-breakthrough-covid-19-infections-and-their-psychological-impact[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/912482-the-mystery-of-breakthrough-covid-19-infections-and-their-psychological-impact : DJ Even within the percentage that a vaccine can not protect getting Covid 19 after vaccination is "hard to swallow"...people want to feel safe, resume their life...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/912480-ak-she-got-covid-19-got-vaccinated-and-then-got-covid-again[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/912480-ak-she-got-covid-19-got-vaccinated-and-then-got-covid-again :

DJ-Communications have to improve on what vaccinations can-and can not- offer. It may be an illusion that one can get 100% protection for a longer time...Booster vaccines should be seen as "good news"...

3 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/911946-or-lawmakers-to-oha-release-covid-vaccine-%E2%80%98breakthrough%E2%80%99-case-count-update-168-post-vaccine-covid-cases-9-hospitalized-3-deaths?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/911946-or-lawmakers-to-oha-release-covid-vaccine-%E2%80%98breakthrough%E2%80%99-case-count-update-168-post-vaccine-covid-cases-9-hospitalized-3-deaths?view=stream ;How many “breakthrough” COVID cases are there in Oregon, that is, vaccinated people who contract the coronavirus?
Oregon lawmakers are asking why the Oregon Health Authority is not revealing certain information and now 2 Portland state legislators have a bill that would make OHA answer that question and others...

DJ-Governments have to be as open as possible on "the numbers" if you want people to trust vaccines...

4-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever#Vaccine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever#Vaccine ;

Vaccine[edit]

In 2016 a partially effective vaccine for dengue fever became commercially available in the Philippines and Indonesia.[4][57] It has been approved for use by Mexico, Brazil, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Singapore, Paraguay, much of Europe, and the United States.[9][57][58] The vaccine is only recommended in individuals who have had a prior dengue infection or in populations where most (>80%) of people have been infected by age 9.[10][59] In those who have not had a prior infection there is evidence it may worsen subsequent infections.[9][10][5] For this reason Prescrire does not see it as suitable for wide scale immunization, even in areas where the disease is common.[60]

The vaccine is produced by Sanofi and goes by the brand name Dengvaxia.[61] It is based on a weakened combination of the yellow fever virus and each of the four dengue serotypes.[36][62] Studies of the vaccine found it was 66% effective and prevented more than 80 to 90% of severe cases.[59] This is less than wished for by some.[63] In Indonesia it costs about US$207 for the recommended three doses.[57]

Given the limitations of the current vaccine, research on vaccines continues, and the fifth serotype may be factored in.[7] One of the concerns is that a vaccine could increase the risk of severe disease through antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE).[64] The ideal vaccine is safe, effective after one or two injections, covers all serotypes, does not contribute to ADE, is easily transported and stored, and is both affordable and cost-effective.[64]

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement ;Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), sometimes less precisely called immune enhancement or disease enhancement, is a phenomenon in which binding of a virus to suboptimal antibodies enhances its entry into host cells, followed by its replication

-

Usually the process of phagocytosis is accompanied by the virus degradation, however, if the virus is not neutralized (either due to low affinity binding or targeting to a non-neutralizing epitope), antibody binding might result in a virus escape and therefore, enhanced infection. Thus, phagocytosis can cause viral replication, with the subsequent death of immune cells. The virus “deceives” the process of phagocytosis of immune cells and uses the host's antibodies as a Trojan horse. ADE may occur due to the non-neutralizing characteristic of the antibody, which bind viral epitopes other than those involved in a host cell attachment and entry. ADE may also happen due to the presence of sub-neutralizing concentrations of antibodies (binding to viral epitopes below the threshold for neutralization).[4] In addition ADE can be induced when the strength of antibody-antigen interaction is below the certain threshold.[5][6] This phenomenon might lead to both increased virus infectivity and virulence. The viruses that can cause ADE frequently share some common features such as antigenic diversity, abilities to replicate and establish persistence in immune cells.[1] ADE can occur during the development of a primary or secondary viral infection, as well as after vaccination with a subsequent virus challenge.[1][7][8] It has been observed mainly with positive-strand RNA viruses. Among them are Flaviviruses such as Dengue virus,[9] Yellow fever virusZika virus,[10][11] Coronaviruses, including alpha- and betacoronaviruses,[12] Orthomyxoviruses such as influenza,[13] Retroviruses such as HIV,[14][15][16] and Orthopneumoviruses such as RSV.[

DJ-In short-a vaccine may provide good protection against a virus but when confronted with a variation of that virus immunity fails, 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement#Mechanism[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement#Mechanism ;Interaction of a virus with antibodies must prevent the virus from attaching to the host cell entry receptors. However, instead of preventing infection of the host cell, this process can facilitate viral infection of immune cells, causing ADE.[1][3] After binding the virus, the antibody interacts with Fc or complement receptors expressed on certain immune cells. These receptors promote virus-antibody internalization by the immune cells, which should be followed by the virus destruction. However, the virus might escape the antibody complex and start its replication cycle inside the immune cell avoiding the degradation.[3][23] This happens if the virus is bound to low affinity antibody.

DJ-If the variant-virus is able to infect immune cells it takes away the defense system...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Prevention_and_treatment[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Prevention_and_treatment ; Vaccines are available for animal coronaviruses IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, although their effectiveness is limited. In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds. 

DJ-Coronavirusses in animals show limited effect-other steps are needed to get a limited outbreak under control. Covid19 is now very widespread with many variants...One has to be realistic on what vaccinations may be able to do...The best scenario may be limited NPI and maximum vaccinations/booster shots. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_resistance[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_resistance ;Drug resistance is the reduction in effectiveness of a medication such as an antimicrobial or an antineoplastic in treating a disease or condition

DJ-Vaccine resistance [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/07/covid-variants-and-vaccine-resistance-all-you-need-to-know[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/07/covid-variants-and-vaccine-resistance-all-you-need-to-know is a growing risk in this pandemic. 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down