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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Calculations in time

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 05 2023 at 12:51pm

Some statisticians claim there is not such a thing as coincidence-just lack of info. Weather forecasting is a form of "calculation in time"....it is often hard to get a good view of the weather for the coming 48 hours in very specific detail. 

For pandemics getting a picture of past pandemics need "calculations in the past"...The Spanish Flu may have killed between 20 and 100 million people-most somewhere between 1917 and 1923. India, Java-then part of Dutch East Indies may each have had over 1 million deaths...But a lot of info is (still) missing...

Can one predict "the future" based on calculations ? Statistics at least is trying to give reasonable chances...but also "gut feeling" may give indications...

-biden will NOT have a second term as US president...99,9%

-Here in NL I would put the chance of reaching temperatures over 45C before 2030 at over 50%...

How to calculate the likelyhood of things like this ? You need to gather lots of info...willing to review an estimate (just like metereologists review/recalculate weather models). 

Scenario's can help understanding events-diseases, pandemics, from the past and help to get a better understanding on limiting future risks...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 05 2023 at 1:01pm

Josh what's the highest temperatures you reach in NL now?

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 06 2023 at 8:26am

KiwiMum, [url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropische_dag[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropische_dag has highest -official- NL temperature at 40,7 in 2019...before that 38,6 in 1944 was unbeaten...However [url]https://www.metronieuws.nl/in-het-nieuws/2019/12/waarom-ging-het-hitterecord-met-429-graden-niet-naar-deelen/[/url] or https://www.metronieuws.nl/in-het-nieuws/2019/12/waarom-ging-het-hitterecord-met-429-graden-niet-naar-deelen/

[url]https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/2431626/het-was-echt-42-9-graden-in-deelen-maar-het-is-te-bizar-voor-woorden[/url] or https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/2431626/het-was-echt-42-9-graden-in-deelen-maar-het-is-te-bizar-voor-woorden ...on an air base 42,9 north of where I live may be the unofficial record high...temperature went up high speed-july 2019-from 39 to almost 43C...So the weather office questioned the results...

--------

On calculations in time...if you could prevent a "patient zero" from infecting others, could use statistics (in combination with lots of waste water data etc) to see "increased risks" for a disease outbreak intervention could stop/limit spread...There is a lot of discussion on A.I. artificial intelligence...however using lots of info can be used for the public good...

(It is now used as a way of population control...). 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 11 2023 at 11:13pm

DJ-I love "simple"...last week rain most likely means coming days will see rain...Summer warmer than winter...that kind of basics...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html 

In the Arctic, vast amounts of carbon are stored in soils that are now still largely frozen. As temperatures continue to rise and soils thaw, much of this carbon will be converted by microbes into carbon dioxide or methane, adding further greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

In addition, vast amounts of methane are stored in sediments under the Arctic Ocean seafloor, in the form of methane hydrates and free gas. As temperatures rise, these sediments can get destabilized, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor. Due to the abrupt character of such releases and the fact that many seas in the Arctic Ocean are shallow, much of the methane will then enter the atmosphere without getting broken down in the water.

DJ..we may be in a proces of exponential global heating...I would love to think 

-Volcanic eruptions may cool down the planet 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer ;

The year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1 °F).[1] Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between the years of 1766 and 2000.[2] This resulted in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.[3]

Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in the Dutch East Indies (modern day Indonesia). This eruption was the largest in at least 1,300 years (after the hypothesized eruption causing the volcanic winter of 536); its effect in the climate may have been exacerbated by the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines.

-Land-Ice sliding into the Ocean (Greenland, Canada, Antarctica) could also slow down global warming...

"Calculations in time" trying to understand (pre) history ALWAYS is complex...so "future models" may at best give indications...

A Global Temperature Rise Of 18.44 Degrees Celsius By 2026?

How much have temperatures risen and how much additional rise could eventuate over the next few years? The image on the right shows a potential global temperature rise by 2026 from pre-industrial levels. This rise contains a number of elements, as discussed below from the bottom of the bar up.

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html 

is a model one has to take serious...My view is the "model" is meant to alarm people...There have been lots of "scenario's" on global war...DJ-We could be moving into a global non-nuclear war with some bad luck...We will NOT survive an all out nuclear war...World War Two may be seen as a "nuclear war"...we did get over that most ways...

Also the global health crises-lots of diseases increasing & mixing-on top of wars and climate collapse will become a "mega mix of disaster"....Trying to limit damage as best one can does start now ! By trying to avoid things getting even worse...

-From calling a politician to STOP wars !!! Start talking !!!

-to more cycling/walking less meat consumption/air travel

Lots of things we should do ! You are NOT powerless !!! 

From public health to public education, transport, housing..."destructive powers" attack the basics of democracy...NOW is the time to speak up ! 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2023 at 7:54am

While we may be moving into an early NL heatwave-decreasing solar energy (more effective at lower temperature !)  the energy-question is "on the move"

[url]https://www.halcium.com/[/url] or https://www.halcium.com/

[url]https://icewind.is/[/url] or https://icewind.is/

and [url]https://www.mecanoo.nl/Projects/project/61/Ewicon[/url] or https://www.mecanoo.nl/Projects/project/61/Ewicon 

Are small scale wind power bladeless energy projects...

[url]http://www.myse.com.cn/en/xwzx/index.aspx[/url] or http://www.myse.com.cn/en/xwzx/index.aspx mega-windturbines-blades 180 meters each (off shore energy-the taller the turbine the more it is able to use high speed winds...

for that matter -in theory- windturbines over 2000 meters tall may be cost-effective ?) 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNp21zTeCDc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNp21zTeCDc ;

The Future of Solid State Wind Energy - No More Blades. Go to http://brilliant.org/Undecided to sign up for free. And also, the first 200 people will get 20% off their annual premium membership. Wind power is one of the fastest-growing renewable sources that works well at scale, 

but it isn't perfect. What if we could scale down wind turbine power to something that could fit on your roof? And be self-contained with smaller moving parts ... or maybe no blades or moving parts at all? Let's look at some future alternatives for harnessing wind power. 

and [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Owra4k3Ox1Q[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Owra4k3Ox1Q ;

Ten years ago, a General Electric turbine with 350-foot blades was considered the ultimate dream. At that time, its dimensions boggled the imagination of any engineer – but there is always room for another dream, isn't there? So, the megalomania continued: in 2021, 

the MingYang Smart Energy Chinese company built its titan with blades 390 feet long each! However, this is not the limit. Wind turbines of even more unthinkable dimensions will soon become our new reality in the energy sector. And one of them is almost ready. 

DJ, Renewable energy is decreasing fossil energy high speed-shifting the global economy. (So also a factor for "petro-dollar" or "petro-yuan"...). Storing the energy from wind (24/7 as long there is wind) solar...you need some sun...water etc. is still in its early days...but going high speed-

This will further reduce costs-making both nuclear and fossil energy less cost-effective (to expensive) 

----

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-1.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-1.html ;

The World daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E) was 16.77°C on June 9, 2023, an anomaly of 0.9°C for that day. The highest temperature on record is 16.92°C, and it was reached on August 14, 2016, and the anomaly for that day was only 0.75°C. 

The record high of 16.92° actually was a tie between August 13, 2016, August 14, 2016, and July 24, 2022. That latter date is important, since the record high temperature was reached even while there was a strong La Niña, suppressing the temperature. This time, we're in an El Niño, so we can expect even higher temperatures over the next few weeks.

The highest anomaly on record was reached on February 28, 2016, when there was a strong El Niño and the anomaly was 1.15°C. Note that these anomalies are compared to the mean temperature for that day in NOAA's NCEP CFSv2

DJ, june 9 is very early in the season !



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2023 at 10:58pm

A few lists; 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records 

and 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth ;

The highest temperature recorded on Earth has been measured in three major ways: air, ground, and via satellite observation. Air measurements are used as the standard measurement due to persistent issues with unreliable ground and satellite readings. Air measurements are noted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Guinness World Records among others as the standard to be used for determining the official record. The current official highest registered air temperature on Earth is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch, in Death Valley in the United States.[1] For ninety years, a former record that was measured in Libya had been in place, until it was decertified in 2012 based on evidence that it was an erroneous reading. This finding has since raised questions about the legitimacy of the 1913 record measured in Death Valley, with several meteorological experts asserting that there were similar irregularities. The WMO has stood by the record as official pending any future investigative results. If the current record were to be decertified then the holder would be a tie at 54.0 °C (129.2 °F), recorded both at Furnace Creek, and in Kuwait.

Several unverified temperatures of all three readings have also been recorded that exceed the current record holder. These include historical claims that were never authenticated due to the equipment available at the time and unverified scientific claims. There are also disproven amateur readings that have been posted on social media showing evidence of extreme temperature.

June 3 [url]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/4/world-registers-hottest-day-ever-recorded-on-monday[/url] or https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/4/world-registers-hottest-day-ever-recorded-on-monday ;

Monday was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

The average global temperature reached 17.01C (62.62F), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F) as heatwaves sizzled around the world.

The southern US has been suffering under an intense heat dome in recent weeks. In China, an enduring heatwave continued with temperatures above 35C (95F). North Africa has seen temperatures near 50C (122F).

Even Antarctica, currently in its winter, registered anomalously high temperatures. Ukraine’s Vernadsky Research Base in the white continent’s Argentine Islands recently broke its July temperature record with 8.7C (47.6F).

“This is not a milestone we should be celebrating,” said climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London.

“It’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems.”

Scientists said climate change combined with an emerging El Nino pattern was to blame.

“Unfortunately, it promises to only be the first in a series of new records set this year as increasing emissions of [carbon dioxide] and greenhouse gasses coupled with a growing El Nino event push temperatures to new highs,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth.

DJ, wars worsen climate collapse high speed...The US-war department is one of the worst global polluters...(in part also because over a hundred countries have some form of US military presence/occupation). 

--------------

Here in NL we will see a small storm "Poly". Yesterday [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/04/video-tornado-strikes-apeldoorn-surrounding-area-wind-warning-issued-tomorrow[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/04/video-tornado-strikes-apeldoorn-surrounding-area-wind-warning-issued-tomorrow 

[url]https://www.estofex.org/[/url] or https://www.estofex.org/ for today;

A level 3 was issued over the NW Netherlands mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes and heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Benelux, Germany, and surrounding regions...

At 22 UTC Wednesday IR/water vapour satellite imagery is consistent with the consensus of the numerical weather prediction models that calculate the rapid development of a small surface cyclone across the southern North Sea ahead of a strong mid/upper-level vorticity maximum. The models suggest that a line of thunderstorms will move north-eastward along a cold front across northern France into the Benelux and Germany prior to the forecast period. Along this front, the strong background wind field and strong low-level shear suggests that sever wind gusts may occur along with a risk of short-lived tornadoes along it. The front should be near a line from Bremen to Frankfurt am Main around 06 UTC.
Further west, across the southern North Sea and the Netherlands a back-bent/instant occlusion will form with associated sting-jet like wind maxima with local wind gust speeds on the order of 30 - 35 m/s, and locally higher. As the cyclone is filled with surface-based and elevated convective elements with isolated lightning, we will consider all wind gusts to be within scope of this ESTOFEX forecast. We estimate the risk of extreme gusts of more than 32 m/s large enough to warrant a level 3 for the region most at risk.

Within subsequent ICON-D2 model runs some members show intense, rotating, convective cells embedded within the developing back-bent occlusion over the Netherlands during the 4 UTC - 10 UTC time frame, that could create localized very severe wind swaths with gusts over 40 m/s, this scenario not being supported by other convection-allowing models. A risk of such extreme gusts and tornadoes cannot be ruled out though. As the cyclone matures, the severe westerly winds on the southern flank will translate north-eastward across northwestern Germany.

DJ...today max temperature 18C...sunday may bring 33C ....crazy weather...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/05/code-red-storm-poly-makes-landfall-bringing-wind-gusts-120-kmh-morning[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/05/code-red-storm-poly-makes-landfall-bringing-wind-gusts-120-kmh-morning  In Dutch [url]https://www.facebook.com/NoodweerBenelux/[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/NoodweerBenelux/ Level 3 for the north of NL...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 15 2023 at 1:35am

DJ, The south of Europe may be seeing record high temperatures...possibly breaking the European record of 48,8 C. (august 2021 Sicily-Italy). Here in NL the highest temperatures this year went towards 35C . Flooding in (a.o.) New Delhi-India, "heat-dome" over Texas...For most places on the north part of the globe August may bring the highest temperatures...(and local weather forecasts for NL hint at "normal temperatures/west-wind" for NL for the rest of July..). 

Does heat have a link with earthquakes ? 

[url]https://worldcrunch.com/green/climat-change-earthquakes-connection[/url] or https://worldcrunch.com/green/climat-change-earthquakes-connection ;

PARIS — Between 1900 and 1950, the Earth recorded an average of 3.4 earthquakes per year with a magnitude greater than 6.5. That figured doubled to 6.7 a year until the early 1970s, and was almost five times that in the 2000s.

Their intensity would also have increased with more than 25 major earthquakes per year, double the previous periods. This is according to the EM-DAT emergency events database, which compiled the occurrence and effects of 22,000 mass disasters worldwide in the 20th century.

Can we conclude that there is a causal relationship with the rise of human activities, as some experts suggest? The idea was first suggested in 2011 by an Australian research team led by geology professor Giampiero Iaffaldano. At the time, it reported that it had found that the intensification of the monsoon in India had accelerated the movement of the Indian tectonic plate by 20% over the past 10 million years.

Iaffaldano wrote in Earth and Planetary Science Letters that the closing and opening of ocean basins, or the emergence of high mountains like the Andes or Tibet, are geological processes that affect climate. "We have shown for the first time that the reverse is true, that the evolution of the climate can affect in return the movement of tectonic plates."

DJ [url]https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/why-are-we-having-so-many-earthquakes-has-naturally-occurring-earthquake-activity-been[/url] or https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/why-are-we-having-so-many-earthquakes-has-naturally-occurring-earthquake-activity-been ;

A temporary increase or decrease in seismicity is part of the normal fluctuation of earthquake rates. Neither an increase nor decrease worldwide is a positive indication that a large earthquake is imminent.

The ComCat earthquake catalog contains an increasing number of earthquakes in recent years--not because there are more earthquakes, but because there are more seismic instruments and they are able to record more earthquakes.

The National Earthquake Information Center now locates about 20,000 earthquakes around the globe each year, or approximately 55 per day. As a result of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about earthquakes more quickly than ever before.

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 16 major earthquakes in any given year. That includes 15 earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range and one earthquake magnitude 8.0 or greater. In the past 40-50 years, our records show that we have exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes about a dozen times.

The year with the largest total was 2010, with 23 major earthquakes (greater than or equal to magnitude 7.0). In other years the total was well below the annual long-term average of 16 major earthquakes. 1989 only had 6 major earthquakes and 1988 only had 7.

So...are earthquakes increasing or are we getting more data ? 

-There are many ways global warming may increase earthquakes;

-Less ice on land means the underlying landmass may push upward (Greenland is pushed down 1 kilometer by a 3 kilometer thick ice cap).

-But also heat/cold may increase/decrease surfaces-resulting in deformations, seismic activity

-Strong water movements -due to storms- may also change earth pressure

DJ-Statistics may not be good enough for linking climate change with earthquakes. Measurements did increase-so YES- we did see more quakes...but that is because we are getting better in noticing them...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_earthquakes[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_earthquakes 

----

Related [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovyI17TYaP8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovyI17TYaP8 Dr. John Campbell;

European excess deaths

As always moe info under his video, see also [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ -you could click on 2017 to compare 2023 numbers...Statistics on excess deaths are corrected for aging...

So is CoViD less deathly ? More a chronic disease ? Heatwaves are supposed to increase excess deaths...Dr.J.C. also would like to see if CoViD-vaccines are a factor...(and a CoViD vaccine IS more of a risk than a flu-vaccine !)

Lots of questions...a problem is we may not have enough long(er) term data to compare with...so one should always keep an eye on that making conclusions....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2023 at 5:30am

Record high temperature going back to 1913 ???? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth#[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth# ;

The current official highest registered air temperature on Earth is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch, in Death Valley in the United States.[1] For ninety years, a former record that was measured in Libya had been in place, until it was decertified in 2012 based on evidence that it was an erroneous reading. This finding has since raised questions about the legitimacy of the 1913 record measured in Death Valley, with several meteorological experts asserting that there were similar irregularities. The WMO has stood by the record as official pending any future investigative results. 

-

If the 1913 record were to be decertified, the highest established recorded air temperature on Earth would be 54.0 °C (129.2 °F), also recorded in Death Valley on 20 June 2013, and in MitribahKuwait on 21 July 2016.[7] There have since been higher readings of 54.4 °C (129.9 °F) in August 2020 and July 2021, both at Furnace Creek, that are pending validation.[8][9][10][11]

So a lot of ????

Measurements have also been taken in two other ways via ground and satellite readings. Temperatures measured directly on the ground may exceed air temperatures by 30 to 50 °C (54 to 90 °F).[12] The theoretical maximum possible ground surface temperature has been estimated to be between 90 and 100 °C (194 and 212 °F) for dry, darkish soils of low thermal conductivity.[13] While there is no highest confirmed ground temperature, a reading of 93.9 °C (201.0 °F) was allegedly recorded in Furnace Creek Ranch on 15 July 1972.[14] Temperature measurements via satellite also tend to capture the occurrence of higher records but, due to complications involving the satellite's altitude loss (a side effect of atmospheric friction), these measurements are often considered less reliable than ground-positioned thermometers.[15] Satellite measurements of ground temperature taken between 2003 and 2009, taken with the MODIS infrared spectroradiometer on the Aqua satellite, found a maximum temperature of 70.7 °C (159.3 °F), which was recorded in 2005 in the Lut DesertIran. The Lut Desert was also found to have the highest maximum temperature in 5 of the 7 years measured (2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2009). These measurements reflect averages over a large region and so are lower than the maximum point surface temperature.[12]

It may be not that easy to define "record heat"

The standard measuring conditions for temperature are in the air, 1.5 metres (4 ft 11 in) above the ground, and shielded from direct sunlight.[2] Global surface temperatures as a whole have been monitored since the 1880s when record keeping began.[3]

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth#Issues[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth#Issues 

In the early 21st century, prior recordings for the highest temperature on Earth were investigated as probable misreadings. From 1922 until 2012, the WMO record for the highest official temperature on Earth was 57.8 °C (136.0 °F), registered on 13 September 1922, in ʽAziziyaLibya. This record was decertified by the WMO in January 2012 as persuasive evidence led to a faulty reading recorded in error by an inexperienced observer.[1] The decertification of this former record led researchers to also investigate the former and current recordings made in Death Valley in 1913.[6] One of the earliest objections came in 1949 by Dr. Arnold Court, who concluded that the temperature may have been the result of a sandstorm that occurred at the time. Court stated that "such a storm may have caused superheated surface materials to hit upon the temperature in the shelter."[1][16] Modern weather historians such as Christopher C. Burt and William Taylor Reid have also claimed that the 1913 Death Valley reading is "a myth", and is at least 2.2 to 2.8 °C (4 to 5 °F) too high.[17][18] The WMO has come out in support of the current record stating that "We accept that Death Valley temperature extreme record. If any new materials on it surface, we will be prepared to open an investigation, but at this time all available evidence points to its legitimacy."[5]

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth#Unverified_claims[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth#Unverified_claims ;

The following are unverified claims of extreme heat over the current world record of 56.7 °C (134.1 °F). These include historical claims that were never authenticated due to the equipment available at the time and unverified scientific claims. Amateur readings have also been done through social media that claimed extreme temperatures which were later discredited. Videos were posted in one instance that allegedly showed street lights melting or trees bursting into flames. These were later disproven by meteorologists who tied the "evidence" to other unrelated prior events that had taken place.[19] All of the recordings listed before 1972 were allegedly caused by a sudden localized increase in air temperature near the surface, known as a heat burst.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst ;

In meteorology, a heat burst is a rare atmospheric phenomenon characterized by a sudden, localized increase in air temperature near the Earth's surface. Heat bursts typically occur during night-time and are associated with decaying thunderstorms.[1] They are also characterized by extremely dry air and are sometimes associated with very strong, even damaging, winds.

Although the phenomenon is not fully understood, the event is thought to occur when rain evaporates (virga) into a parcel of cold, dry air high in the atmosphere, making the air denser than its surroundings.[2] The parcel descends rapidly, warming due to compression, overshoots its equilibrium level, and reaches the surface, similar to a downburst.[3]

Recorded temperatures during heat bursts have reached well above 40 °C (104 °F), sometimes rising by 10 °C (18 °F) or more within only a few minutes.

DJ (The NL record heat discussion 2019 was during day time...)

We will see new record heat this summer...without any discussion !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2023 at 3:35am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIR6mH1lSsE&t=205s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIR6mH1lSsE&t=205s Paul Beckwith;

The last few years, the Antarctic Sea ice extent has literally fallen off a cliff. 

This most recent Antarctica winter (our northern hemisphere summer) the sea ice did not form properly, and we are essentially missing around 2 million square km of Antarctic sea ice, as we head into the Antarctica summer (which is our northern hemisphere boreal winter). Roughly, if this 2 million square km of sea ice deficit occurred in the northern hemisphere, we would be having a Blue Ocean event there. 

According to peer-reviewed science on what the consequences would be, it would be an increase of 0.71 W/m2 radiative forcing, or an equivalent of 1 trillion tons of CO2 emitted, with an equivalence of 25 years of additional global warming at present global emission rates. 

So the bottom line is this: today we are experiencing the 5-signa level collapse of Antarctic sea ice, and the Sun is rising above the horizon as we head into the Southern Hemisphere summer, with all that sea ice missing. The ice-albedo feedbacks will kick in, and the warming in the southern hemisphere (and Antarctica Amplification (AAA)) will increase global radiative forcing roughly 0.71 W/m2 which is equivalent to a sudden increase of 1 Trillion tons of CO2 emitted, which is roughly equivalent to 25 years of global emissions (at 40 Gtons CO2 per year). Sorry folks, but that is the bottom line. 

We missed our change to tackle climate change, and we will be experiencing super-exponential, abrupt Heaviside function like temperature spikes to a much warmer, destabilized climate world. Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. We are living the consequences. 

Abrupt climate change is upon us, and the Antarctic sea ice deficit of around 2 million square km will hit us like a sledgehammer over the next year, with global warming effects roughly equivalent to what we would experience with a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic. The risk of cascading tipping points also spikes up, with the AMOC and every other climate system on the planet approaching ever nearer to their tipping point thresholds.

DJ If 0,71 W/m2 =an extra increase of 0,71C because (??) of this much less ice in Antarctica...With Antarctic summer on its way

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/10/temperature-rise-september-2023-and-beyond.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/10/temperature-rise-september-2023-and-beyond.html ;

Conclusion


Alarms bells have been sounding loud and clear for a long time, as discussed in posts such as this one, warning that the temperature could rise by more than 3°C by 2026. The above magenta graph shows how this could occur as early as next year (end 2024).


The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.


DJ...Less Antarctic ice will bring warmer temperatures deeper into Antarctica...further pushing up melt/temperature rise. It also does increase the risks of volcanoes on Antarctica...now still "frozen" by a lot of ice...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_Antarctica[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_Antarctica 

DJ-There are LOTS of volcanoes in/around Antarctica. Less ice pushing the underlying land down will increase both seismic AND volcanic activities...

Not only polar (sea)ice is dramatic, ocean temperatures are record high...and the proces is ongoing...

So...extreme weather will "explode"...More heat=stronger storms and more rain (and less snow-in general...). 

We are IN the proces of climate collapse...Only nuclear war may be able to kill more people faster...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 21 2023 at 11:18pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyi-JxwWOGI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyi-JxwWOGI Paul Beckwith;

Pre-COP reports are being released daily by NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations), the UN, many countries, and other group’s as we near the opening of COP28 in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. 

Here I chat briefly about the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report on the trends of the main GHG’s in the atmosphere. They are continuing to increase at ever increasing rates, as can be seen on the video splash screen, which shows both the GHG curves for CO2, CH4, and N20 as well as the slopes of the trend lines. 

News article: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press... Report: https://library.wmo.int/viewer/68532/...  Please donate to http://paulbeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWHUFSpOjkg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWHUFSpOjkg Lena Petrova;

CHINA-SAUDI ARABIA New De-dollarization Move: $7 BILLION Local Currency Swap Agreement Signed

DJ, When you measure events you may find facts. Those facts can be translated to trends. Of course interpretations do matter;

-"There is no alternative for the US$" would limit de-dollar-ization..ignoring the fact that a "basket of currencies" might replace the US$ in global trade when we move away from a "uni-polar" world towards a "multi-polar" one...Not only may we see the end of 500 years of western domination-we may also see the end of one currency being a "global reserve currency"...

See also [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-11-18/pictorial-global-reserve-currency-empires[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-11-18/pictorial-global-reserve-currency-empires and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dutch-central-bank-admits-it-has-prepared-new-gold-standard[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dutch-central-bank-admits-it-has-prepared-new-gold-standard 

In fact moving back/returning to a "gold standard" -away from "fiat-based" currency is a U-turn in many ways...

-In climate so far most CO2 ended up in the atmosphere, rest went into land/plants and sea/ocean...Problem is both plants and oceans get saturated-may be over the amount of CO2 uptake...On the other side of the balance is melting permafrost increasing methane, wildfires producing CO2...it is not all "human activity"...

In climate to buy time/CO2 "space/budget" the "baseline" for temperature has been moved from 1750 to 1850-1900...providing ignoring 0,2/0,3 C temperature rise...If you want to ignore even more temperature rise -to save the economy- one could take the year 2000 as a baseline...

In another video Prof. Paul Beckwith explained a study on how even +2C would destroy most of global ice "cooling system". Temperature rise for 2023 would already be over 1,54C...last data/days indicate a trend to +2C on those days...

The poles warm up much faster...Strong storms, rain may destroy polar ice even if global warming itself "in models" do not show melting temperature..."wrong place-wrong time"...

----------------

One way to ignore pandemics is to stop testing and reporting..."Hoping" natural immunity -at the end- will stop a disease...[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps (scroll down-add 2017) indicates excess deaths still at "pandemic numbers"...

indie_SAGE is following lots of other statistics/trends; hospital cases/waitinglists, waitingtime for ambulances...And of course some countries still do test waste water on (CoViD) samples...

Maybe Public Health Emergency of International Concern -WHO- being "over" in wordgames translated as "pandemic" being over...But also here one is fooling him/herself...

"Statistics are a great way to lie" may have some truth...statistics can reflect realities...Ignoring that is a choice...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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