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Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 10:21pm
Thanks for the update on Hurricane Jose! 


That thing was wandering around in the Atlantic, but it sure looks like it is making a bee-line for New England!  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 3:43am
The longest duration of a hurricane was the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane 27 days and 18hours. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jose_(2017) started as a tropical wave august 31. 

Other data on (Atlantic) hurricanes:




study released Friday by Metstat, a weather-analysis company specializing in “detailed precipitation analysis” and “weather frequency analysis,” found that Harvey delivered a stunning once-in-25,000-year deluge over much of southeast Texas.

Some places saw an unimaginable once-in-500,000-year deluge, which translates to a 0.0002 percent chance of this deluge occurring in any given year. Probabilities that extreme “are calculated by extrapolating the distribution curves for precipitation observed over the last century,” Metstat’s Shauna Bokn explained.

Since global warming has been making extreme precipitation events more likely, however, the U.S. won’t have to wait 25,000 years to witness the next event of Harvey’s proportion.

But, again, to be clear, that’s all based on historical precipitation data over the past century. Human-caused climate change is shifting the baselines. In regard to Harvey, MetStat found that “an interesting atmospheric setup was present that allowed it to stay alive for so long; bringing devastation over such a widespread area.” In particular, “the jet stream was located at very high latitudes, allowed for very light wind shear over Texas, and this aided in the lack of movement for Harvey.”

As climatologist Michael Mann explained during the storm, “the kind of stalled weather pattern that is drenching Houston is precisely the sort of pattern we expect because of climate change.” Climate science predicted a weaker jet stream, and Harvey stalled because of a weakened jet stream.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 12:25pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNLfZGEzx8c BPEarthWatch-models indicating Jose getting close to New York sept 19/20, another storm hitting Georgia sept 25 and a third one moving into Louisiana /Florida sept. 28. That is just the models. (Lee and Maria would be the names after Katia).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2017 at 9:18pm
BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWYnvFldvl4
-Jose may reach New York as a cat.1 at night and stay there for a longer period bringing a lot of rain
-2nd storm follows Irma-track over Caribean than to Georgia
-3th storm starts in the Caribean-over Cuba-Florida into the Atlantic
-Also mention of first snowstorm in Montana



MrMBB333, over 20 inches of rain in western Mexico due to "Norma"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isRT-yFqpIg striking in densly populated area with lots of dams.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 1:01am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIROYvZfbbs MrMBB333; "Jose" is starting to look a lot like "Sandy" in 2012. But it may not make landfall-move into the Atlantic and maybe even then return to strike again !

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1256-uh-oh-euro-216-hour-shows-a-potential-simultaneous-impact-on-the-east-coast-by-two-hurricanes Tuesday "Jose" COULD be less than 200 miles from New York and bring a lot of rain. (DJ; problem is that models are far from perfect). 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange We are on our way to a 4C above normal-drastic action is needed now !

In september 1961 hurricane "Debbie" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961) did do a lot of damage in Ireland and the UK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Vince In october 2005 hurricane "Vince" reached Spain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe
In a paper published in April 2013, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would greatly increase the threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand 1,100 km (700 mi) to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castile-La Manchapredicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe.[5]
Hurricanes in the Atlantic are not only a risk for North America they also effect the weather in Europe-and the Arctic (bringing warm air-increase polar melt).

Severe (economic) damage due to climate change to the US effect global economies and trade. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlG6I9nlDgQ&feature=share Populationgrowth of 240.000 persons per day, unrealistic pricing-leaving lots of cost to the taxpayer for private profit is destroying our planet. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 5:58am
interesting piece on how hurricanes affect infrastructure

Hurricane Irma: Revenge of the Everglades...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/15/1698865/-Hurricane-Irma-Revenge-of-the-Everglades
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 7:46am
Satori, reminds me of building a house on solid ice during winter-one day summer will come....

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1259-hurricane-jose-expected-in-nj-nyc-area-in-four-days-we-could-get-a-rough-ride-a-direct-hit-or-nothing models on "Jose" (and "Lee" and "Maria" ) are very uncertain. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ will give advisories on a new hurricane on its way to the Lesser Antilles. 




In a recent Vice article, Nafeez Ahmed broke the story of Schroders, a British investment firm with US $542 billion under management, privately advising its clients that global temperatures could reach 7.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. Of course, as is well known, the safe limit for warming is generally considered to be 2 degrees Celsius.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 8:08am
Perhaps the biggest problem from extreme weather is not the damage from high winds, but from the storm surge, caused by rising sea levels. 

Data shows that the oceans are rising, due to melting of glaciers AND expansion of ocean water mass as temperature rises.  

All coastal areas are at risk, and since the majority of the world's population lives close to the seas, this is going to be a huge problem.   See the graphics in this link:



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 12:17pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw-bayXRZ-QBPEarthWatch and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-rzzmycHLMMrMBB333 with latest updates. 

Sept 19-New York Area "Jose" cat1
Sept 25-"Maria" will sweep the US East Coast. 
Later on "Lee" may show up as well. 




CRS,DrPH-the biggest risk from these chain of hurricanes is massive panic in the US. The "human reaction" already showing on Caribean islands with drinkingwater and foodproblems, no houses, next hurricanes on its way....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2017 at 10:57pm
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:


CRS,DrPH-the biggest risk from these chain of hurricanes is massive panic in the US. The "human reaction" already showing on Caribean islands with drinkingwater and foodproblems, no houses, next hurricanes on its way....
 

Thanks, Dutch Josh!  My wife and I were married in St. John, US Virgin Islands, on Nov 20, 1997 (nearly 20 years ago!), it saddens us to see this devastation. 

We are reading about widespread looting and intimidation of the populace by armed thugs, very sad.  A model for what any of us might face in the future, due to pandemic, EMP etc.

Sadly, more storms are on the way....Maria and Lee look like they could add to the misery in the Caribbean. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 12:47am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYqqkc1lD9sBPEarthWatch;
-Jose may stay at the Atlantic not doing much damage to the US, but Jose is full of surprises
-Lee is moving north in the Atlantic, proberbly not doing much damage
-Maria may become another Irma-cat3/4 moving over the Carribean towards US East Coast
-another storm sept 30 close to the Mexican gulf coast moving into Mexico (in this model)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnSPb1FJVqIMrMBB333 newer info, sound problem in the video.
Maria could become a cat.4 but get pulled into the Atlantic by "Jose" before reaching the US coast. Jose would do another turn south to get in touch with Maria.

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is very bizar. If this is the "new normal" many islands in the Caribean have a "very limited future". Not much tourism or agriculture=no means for many people to live there.





DJ: This story-again-is not only about the US. It is about climate change effecting global economics, logistics, foodproduction etc. When these destructive storms are only the beginning of "very bad weather"  we are in very big problems as humans.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 6:48am
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/cmc/cmc_atl_accprec.html 
showing several storms forming both in the Atlantic and in the Caribean. 
-sept 20 "Jose" "to close for comfort" New York/Boston
-sept 24 "Maria" over Florida, "Irma-track"
-sept 27 "Nate"  Louisiana

All are models-but not looking good !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 10:13am
Dutch Josh, great point about the grim future of the Caribbean islands!  

They are squarely in the line-of-fire to hurricanes, and these are likely to increase in the future.  

Damn shame, they are all very nice islands with wonderful people and resources.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 11:49am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgS1cQKbrpI BPEarthWatch confirming an earlier scenario of 3 storms effecting the US the coming 2 weeks. 

CRS, DrPH-after the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrier_Reef another part of Earth is destroyed. People become refugees-losing everything they had including-with some bad luck-selfrespect. 

When I also hear about the early snowstorms in the northern US-other extreme weather events around the globe-I try to imagine the "exponential factor"; superstorms, hail-stones that kill, extreme cold in areas that should be warm or the other way round. 

Not looking good ! BPEarthWatch relates the "climate chaos" to solar flares-most make the link with climate change. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2017 at 10:48pm
This is not the US yet...
Originally posted by BBC BBC wrote:

Maria is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane as it nears the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean.

The category one hurricane will rapidly strengthen over the next 48 hours and will hit the islands late on Monday, the US National Hurricane Center says.

It is moving roughly along the same path as Irma, the hurricane that devastated the region this month.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Guadeloupe, Dominica, St Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat and Martinique.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41302157
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 1:31am
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1264-tropical-storm-watch-issued-for-new-jersey-and-new-york-city


Dahboo77https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isIyBUDRq2E Jose may move north to almost Canada east coast and than turn over the Atlantic move into Virginia/Carolina's were Maria then moves over-combining the strenght of two storms. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4hQgVXO-hY MrMBB333 "Mary" can become cat 4 or 5-move via the "Irma"track.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STlm7YSzUkEBPEarthWatch also warning for a new storm forming near Yucatan-Mexico


The big question is how to see these hurricanes in a wider perspective. Is it part of abrupt climate change-and (far) worse-globally-on its way.http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-power/nuclear-power-accidents/flood-risk-at-nuclear-power-plants#.Wb-M30tJa3D 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 10:22am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QplYXNCg2LE BPEarthWatch, "Jose" will bring a lot of rain, surge etc to New York and further north. Then loop and move in land (Virginia or north of it ?) next weekend. By that time "Maria" will again bring a lot of rain-stay offshore. Also mentioning of a storm forming (end of september, beginning of october) near Yucatan. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 5:01pm
Maria to make a Category FIVE strike on Dominica tonight, St. Croix and Puerto Rico tomorrow

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/18/1699637/-Maria-to-make-a-Category-FIVE-strike-on-Dominica-tonight-St-Croix-and-Puerto-Rico-tomorrow
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2017 at 9:39pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeKb0nFPTRI MrMBB333-"Maria" went from a bunch of clouds to a cat-5 in 48 hours. Military are evacuating from islands neat Puerto Rico. "Maria" may move over islands without electricity due to "Irma". (DJ; some people may find out about "Maria" when it hits them.) MrMBB333 expects "Maria" making landfall "somewere in the US" or move along the US east coast-but all models have a different story-unpredictable (DJ; and very hard to calculate).



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amQPCYR0tm8 BPEarthWatch; "Jose" almost stopped moving eventhough most models predicted it to move north. A weatherfront from the US is moving east and may push both "Jose" and "Maria" in io the Atlantic-far enough to do much damage. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jub-8_PwbXk Dahboo77; "Jose" and "Maria" according to a model may start interacting. In his model "Jose" is pushing "Maria" in to the Atlantic-but models change-it could work the other way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD54qBkQCEU latest
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http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/1282-184-mph-winds 
and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c4_-TIC7_I BPEarthWatch-both "Jose" and "Maria" may stay in the Atlantic-limited damage to the US.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.NATLAN-LEA.WS10 In the Greenland/Iceland area a new strong storm has formed (from the remains of "Irma" DJ ? )

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 "Lee" getting restarted, moving north on the central Atlantic ?

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html shows another hurricane forming october 4-5 near Yucatan moving north into the Florida/Louisiana gulf coast. Also-this season is full of extremes and surprises-no reason to trust "models" as long as there are hurricanes on the Atlantic ! (Do not trust "Lee"-may surprise you ! escapes all long term models but just like the storm near Yucatan shows up from time to time.) 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2017 at 9:48pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX9xKHi3RBYBPEarthwatch-both "Jose" and "Maria" may bring a lot of rain into the US 9different models from Washington DC to Boston) Also mentions "Lee"reactivating mid-Atlantic, remnants of storms on the North Atlantic bringing severe weather to the UK. (I think it was BPEarthWatch that was drawing the conclusion that lows attrack eachother-a low near Yucatan could pull "Maria" towards the US. Eventhough not as a cat-5 but still with a lot of waves, rain etc.-very bad outlook !)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD7g-wZXg3Q MrMBB333 extreme flashfloods in Puerto Rico-island could be out of electricity for 4 to 6 months.

Both BPEarthWatch and MrMBB333 are also trying to follow earthquake news. There seems to be an increase of stronger quakes. There may be some relation with hurricanes. The amount of water that is being moved (via waves, rain, clouds) is very large-it may replace seismic pressure. 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 9:36am

The scariest thing about 2017’s hurricanes: They keep getting really strong, really fast


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/the-scariest-thing-about-2017s.html

(The Washington Post) – “Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye,” wrote National Hurricane Center forecaster Jack Beven on Monday evening, as the storm reached Category 4 intensity.

That inward contraction of a hurricane’s eye can be one telltale indicator of what hurricane gurus technically call “rapid intensification,” although a more evocative word might simply be “explosion.” Whatever you call it, it’s something we keep seeing this year. Harvey, Irma, Jose and now Maria have rapidly strengthened — and all too often, have done it just before striking land.

It’s a dangerous and scary phenomenon that scientists and forecasters are still trying to understand.

“It’s not a common event. Typically, that occurs in maybe 5 percent of our forecasts,” said Mark DeMaria, acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

But DeMaria said that this season is seeing more rapid intensification events than usual and that Maria, in particular, appears to have set a key record for hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic.

“Looking back through the records, Maria went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just two and a half days,” he said. “I couldn’t find any other tropical cyclones in our historical record that went that quickly from a depression to a Category 5 hurricane.”

That’s a big problem, because rapid intensification sets the stage for worst-case scenarios. Sadly, that’s what happened to the Caribbean island of Dominica on Monday night, hit by Maria at full Category 5 strength.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 11:55am
So far no updates from BPEarthwatch, MrMBB333 etc.-it seems to be very hard to predict what "Jose" and "Maria" will do. 

2017 Atlantic hurricane season so far did bring two cat 4 hurricanes "Jose" and "Harvey", and two cat 5 hurricanes "Irma" and "Maria"-they all were active this month. Very bizar !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/bay-area-sues-big-oil-billions and https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/20/san-francisco-and-oakland-sue-fossil-fuel-companies-over-rising-sea-levels/ (DJ; of course politics did give big oil all the room they wanted-for decades-to destroy the enviroment. Now they claim they did not know what would come ? A bit hypocrite in my opinion.)



DJ-The 2017 hurricane season is proberbly far from over. If "alarmists" are correct things only will get much worse very fast. Stronger "superstorms" may become the "new normal" very soon-in that scenario. If that "model" would become reality that would effect the way "the world can work". 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 5:24pm

Hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel: Why it’s time to stop calling these hurricane disasters ‘natural’


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/hurricane-scientist-kerry-emanuel-why.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 5:49pm
Originally posted by Satori Satori wrote:

Hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel: Why it’s time to stop calling these hurricane disasters ‘natural’


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/hurricane-scientist-kerry-emanuel-why.html


Thanks, Satori!  Indeed, our global warming is turning the oceans into massive storm machines.  We sow what we reap. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 7:55pm

Hurricane MARIA JET-STREAM Will Determine East Coast Fate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETKDFWnJt38

Just like the Hurricane path models after 3-5 days its nearly impossible to tell what changes may occur. We saw this exact situation with Hurricane Irma. About 30 hours before Irma was projected to turn north and hit the east coast of Florida we had an unexpected "break" in the Jet-Stream. This caused a separate wall of pressure to stay along the length of the east coast while the other side re-formed North by Canada. This break is the reason Irma was stuck south and eventually hit Cuba then once the pressure passed it went north but to the west coast instead. This is very important to remember not only because it may change the path of Maria but because we are still days away from the forecast. Much can change in the coming days and with such little space to go the smallest of changes in the Jet-stream can be the difference in a Land-fall or Maria staying out in the Atlantic.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 9:28pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2017 at 11:08pm
[I don't know if this fits here, but a moderator could move this to a new thread if needed]


The situation in Puerto Rico, could well give us an indication of how things might go in a general collapse following a pandemic.  Currently 3.5 million people without electricity that could take months to restore.   Hot weather without air conditioning.  Unclear relationship to the rest of the USA (due to the island's unique status).  An area heavily in debt but legally unable to seek bankruptcy protection. 

Lets see how this unfolds and if there are lessons we can learn to help us in out preps.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 1:58am
No Edwin, That is fine where it is.  I wish everyone took as much care where they put stuff as you just did.  Thanks.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 4:24am
Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

[I don't know if this fits here, but a moderator could move this to a new thread if needed]


The situation in Puerto Rico, could well give us an indication of how things might go in a general collapse following a pandemic.  Currently 3.5 million people without electricity that could take months to restore.   Hot weather without air conditioning.  Unclear relationship to the rest of the USA (due to the island's unique status).  An area heavily in debt but legally unable to seek bankruptcy protection. 

Lets see how this unfolds and if there are lessons we can learn to help us in out preps.




along those lines of how people will behave,there is this

'Time to eat, but not to fix my power': Drink dumped on electrician grabbing lunch after 12-hour shift

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-time-eat-not-fix-000903409.html


remember

this is AMuriKa

it's ALL ABOUT ME ME ME


I would have had that #$^%$# arrested and then filed a civil suit against her

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 5:37am
EdwinSm-there is always the disaster after the disaster. Haïti got a cholera-outbreak (linked to Nepalese UN-peacekeepers) after the initial earthquake. Many islands in the Caribean find themselves in a Peurto-Rico like situation. "Independent" means in this case hoping someone will provide help. 

With the hurricane-winds and waves-all kind of animals, virusses, bacteria have been transported to areaś with dead animals on the street and high humidity and temperature. 

Proberbly lots of people are trying to find a new-safe-home elsewere-refugees are logical after several hurricanes and no income. 

Severe storms could do very much damage to even well developed countries. There is a limit in what a country can deal with. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2017 at 10:42pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfvIdOPkTL8 BPEarthWatch with an optimistic view-for the short term for the US. Both "Jose" and "Maria" would pose limited risks-although models differ. 

Government insanity:




Since in a lot of area's there are no kitchens left, preparation of food could be a risk. No electricity means a lot of food may become uneatable. 

"Lee" has a second life; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025621.shtml?tswind120#contents. The speed in wich clouds can develop into a cat 5 hurricane-within 48 hours-the way systems interact-a depression could push a hurricane in the opposite direction than models expected-makes making models very hard. 


There is an increase in earthquakes-the movement of extreme large amounts of water by hurricanes may play a role;

latest long term model;
just one hurricane forming round oct 8 in the Gulf.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season gets updated daily-indirect damage is much larger. Investments will be made not in regions with high-hurricane risks or damages, people will move to safer places. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 23 2017 at 10:15pm
MrMBB333 with his latest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPAidtj3-3s "Maria" tends to move towards the US East Coast bringing at least a lot of rain-from North Carolina all the way up to New York, Pennsylvania, second half of the coming week. So still a lot could change.

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html Shows sept 27 "Maria" making a short landfall-hanging in the coastal area for 36hrs-and then moving into the north Atlantic. This model now expects a storm west of Florida oct. 9. (But that keeps changing from model to model-just an indication hurricane season is not over yet. At the hurricane-appendix I will try to look at tendencies for stronger storms in october due to climate change).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4sCI-1U3-0&feature=youtu.be The Real News on Puerto Rico-the disaster after the disaster, and not only for Puert Rico. 


DJ; When we are in the "abrupt" "exponential" part of climate change we have to expect the extremes going more extreme, extreme temperatures, rainfall, wind, storm etc. The slow movers will be water expanding due to warming up-but a storm could bring sealevel rise water going to places that normaly would stay dry during floods. Heatwaves in Greenland or Antarctica ? Proberbly coming increasing ice-melt !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2017 at 1:38am
"Lee" has become a cat-1 hurricane mid-Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/240624.shtml this could influence other developments. 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-forecast-path-edging-closer-outer-banks "Maria" could get to cat-4. "Disturbence" Invest 98-E could turn into a tropical depression bringing much rain to the Mexico-Texas borders. 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/23/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-communication-lines-dam (DJ-situation in parts of Asia are even far worse-healthrisks and refugees will increase global.)

DJ;One of the things we should learn from this hurricane season is how fast hurricanes can develop. Models may be running behind the facts-faster computers need more data to give better results. An other point is that-with much damage the loss of life seems to be limited so far. Good information saves lives !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2017 at 12:31pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2017 at 9:37pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEy9_VRejUs BPEarthWatch the closer "Maria" gets to the North Carolina coast the warmer the Sea Surface Temperature-and the stronger the storm. 

Both BPEarthWatch-models ( 3.30 in video) and long-term models indicate more storms forming http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfsext/gfsext_atl_pwater.html (oct 10 Gulf near Mexico)

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP Remnants of hurricanes move towards UK, Norway, Greenland.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/cat-2-maria-headed-north-will-come-close-nc-outer-banks After "Pilar" making landfall in West Mexico some of the rain may end up in West Texas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsxkC5-mQus Decommissioned nuclear power plant (from 1964 still radioactive material stored inside) Puerto Rico was hit by the hurricane.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 26 2017 at 2:31am
They might not destroy the US yet, but Puerto Rico looks like it might be left out to fend for itself.

This is compounded by the high level of debt (and not allowed to use US bankruptcy rules)

All this gives an interesting dilemma for the current administration...either pay up or expect a lot of people fro Puerto Rico to move to the mainland.   Neither option seems like it would appeal to its fan base.

Originally posted by BBC BBC wrote:

]Puerto Rican Governor Ricardo Rosello, who is seeking federal funds, warned of a "massive exodus" without aid....

Puerto Rico is facing the collapse of its electricity and communications network as it evacuates flooded families and examines damaged infrastructure. A major dam is at risk of collapse.

Insured losses across the Caribbean are already estimated to range from $40bn to $85bn, with about 85% of the damage found in Puerto Rico, according to disaster modelling firm AIR Worldwide....

the island's debt means that it cannot borrow money for the emergency on its own.....

The island's status as a commonwealth and not a state means it has fewer advocates in Congress, which could complicate funding efforts, said Ted Hampton, a Moody's analyst.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41391045
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 26 2017 at 5:02am
13NewsNow latest update on "Maria" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cGJCg-TqWA 




The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The season has been very active, the most active since 2005 in terms of ACE. In addition, it is the costliest season on record, with at least $180 billion (USD) in damages, all of which mostly were contributed by the three top storms of the season: Hurricanes HarveyIrma, and Maria. The season is also one of only six years to feature at least two Category 5 hurricanes: Irma and Maria. Along with 2007, Maria's landfall on Dominica also makes 2017 the second season on record to feature two hurricanes making landfall at Category 5 intensity. In addition, Irma was the strongest hurricane ever recorded to form in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 26 2017 at 9:22am
Trump appears to be blaming Puerto Rico for the damage caused by Hurricane Maria. And instead of empathizing, he's actually tweeting that they're not going to be off the hook for the money they owe Wall Street. The swamp must be happy with their new President.

http://secondnexus.com/politics-and-economics/trump-blames-puerto-rico-hurricane-maria/?utm_content=inf_10_1164_2&tse_id=INF_5d884810a2cc11e7897b1b4a01a12704


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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 26 2017 at 10:02pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PRuGvEZZyQ MrMBB333 latest; "Maria" and (cat 3 almost "Lee" ) moving over the Atlantic towards the UK-Iceland (bringing warm air to the Arctic). Puerto Rico (and many other islands) still a disasterzone-somethingh should be done NOW ! No new storms in the models.




http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP 10 day forecast wind North Atlantic. (In beginning of october 2 depressions mid-Atlantic)

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.NH-SAT1.T2_anom-MSLP old hurricanes warming up the Arctic. NOT GOOD !!!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 27 2017 at 5:42am

How Many More '500-Year Storms' Will People Endure Before They Start Abandoning Coastal Cities?


http://www.alternet.org/environment/how-many-500-year-storms-must-batter-shores-coastal-residents-pack-and-leave


the very definition of insanity and STUPIDITY

One "exit barrier" has to do with a 49-year-old program called the National Flood Insurance Program. Under the current law, homeowners are required to rebuild on their land—even after suffering through multiple floods. "Through the National Flood Insurance Program, we know there are about 30,000 properties that flood repeatedly," said Rob Moore, senior policy analyst for the NRDC's water program. "On average, these properties have flooded about five times." Only around one percent of these properties carry flood insurance, reports NPR, but have been responsible for about 25 percent of the paid claims.

Jennifer Bayles, a homeowner in the Houston metro area who was interviewed last week on NPR, paid $83,000 for her house in 1992. After the first flood in 2009, insurance paid her $200,000, then an additional $200,000 following the next flood. Now, post-Harvey, she expects to receive around $300,000.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 27 2017 at 9:36pm
@Satori, making mistakes again and again is insane ! 

MrMBB333 on "Maria" again cat1-moving NORTH in stead of east ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bKKYPbr3_o He earlier expected "Maria" and "Lee"to become a "superstorm" hitting the UK coming monday. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3zpRPnWdNA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 South-East of Cuba-not far from Florida-new storm forming. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29OjgaY1SK8 Paul Beckwith the disaster after the disaster.
Better preparations can limit damage of extreme weather. Power is basic for repairs, food, airco..


DJ; in south Asia the situation is far worse-but not making the headlines. Models now seem to be unable to catch up with reality. Monitoring-"now"casting more than "fore"casting. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.NATLAN-CED.WS10-MSLP (may be missing to much to work)



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 28 2017 at 7:14pm

HURRICANE Update! #NATE #OPHELIA #PHILIPPE ALL Shown In Next 10 Days!?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCf5bnTUQro


"another solid month of significant storms"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 28 2017 at 11:26pm
BPEartWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV4mFlD_MQM Florida watch short term. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 NHC saterday Florida can expect showers-wind.

Satori; for the link after the link makes it a direct link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCf5bnTUQro In2ThinAir (good info but 25 minutes !)

oct 1 small storm eastern florida, oct 7 bigger storm moving along the US east coast, a "disturbance"in the central Atlantic. The 7 oct storm splitting up in 3 seperate storms ? 

Coming weekend/monday western Europe can expect rain/wind from ex"Maria" and ex"Lee".

Most "news"shows have very limited time for the weather-specialized sources dig (much to) deep and play it on the safe side. You Tube gives other people a chance-some try to inform, others try to shock. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season gives good evaluations, enables to compare the 2017 with the 2005 season. Both extreme-but is this proof of abrupt climate change ? Or what you can expect looking at statistics ? (Or maybe a bit of both-you need more info). 

The damage these storms bring to the already troubled-debt burdened economy of the US is very large on the long term. One hurricane effecting production for a few days every ten years a company might be willing to except-ten hurricanes in one year is simply relocation of the company. Tourism will get effected, logistics, infrastructure needs rebuilding-improvements. 
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